Posted by Wok > 2021-05-18 15:46 | Report Abuse

HI Chief999, yes....that would be potential windfall. For this coming Qtr will be litmus test. The simulation indicates mere breakeven EPS.....something like close of 1.8 sen if really all goes well......finger's crossed

Posted by Wok > 2021-05-18 15:53 | Report Abuse

Sapurakencana;

the simulation is based on BDI correlation with Charter Rates, DWT and Charter Efficiecny of Maybulk, OPEX vs DWT, and annual data of all the above from 2007 until now.......

chl1989....i dont think it can hit 20mil in coming Qtr...will be lesser. Maybe 16~18mil

Posted by chief999 > 2021-05-18 16:01 | Report Abuse

Wok, one thing confirm, those who listened to AGM was told by management, no more impairment, may potentially have revaluation gain... so really hopeful... but in anycase, market is always forward looking, with current rates doing good now, should be ok.... fingers crossed....

Posted by sapurakencana > 2021-05-18 16:46 | Report Abuse

Mr Wok,Thanks for your reply.Anyway i still need further understanding how EPS correlation with DWT and Charter Efficiecny of Maybulk, (Currently maybulk EPS is -2.08cents /share,how it can improve to 3.5 cent/share at current market condition.(14 EPS annually as you mention))Can you share with us ,we r willing to learn ,thanks!

Posted by sapurakencana > 2021-05-18 16:57 | Report Abuse

My assumtion is base on the 10 vessel they have, compare with 15 vessel 1 years ago, the total hour of operation sure will reduce,unless they can generate 60 mil revenue for quarter ended 31.3.2021,may be your target 3.5 cents can be achieve. (Pls excluded impairment loss that may be reinstore /reverse back (non cash profit))

Posted by sapurakencana > 2021-05-18 17:08 | Report Abuse

Just for sharing,hope can help each other even we never meet before.

Posted by chl1989 > 2021-05-18 17:20 | Report Abuse

it was a question, not a fact, ok? :)

Posted by Powerplay666 > 2021-05-18 17:55 | Report Abuse

Closed on a high. More green candles in the coming days!

Posted by Wok > 2021-05-18 18:06 | Report Abuse

Wok Wok Sapurakencana;

Maybulk capacity is 450,000 DWT. Its average charter efficiency is around 2.7~3.0% over the entire duration of 2007 until now. U can "estimate" revenue with charter rates known.

The correlation between average BDI vs Charter Rates for Panamax~Handymax is at around 8 plus minus on average. E.g. if BDI is at 2856, the rate hovers at circa USD 22k.

Their OPEX per DWT is on average at 220~300. The company have discarded many inefficient vessels up till now, so a leaner OPEX at 220 is possible.

For Q1, the BDI averages at around 1600. Thus, we should hopefully see it break even based on these variable factors I truly hope.

I guess we will find out soon....

Posted by sapurakencana > 2021-05-18 18:09 | Report Abuse

In this reporting period FY2020, net revenue for the Group was RM130.846 million (FY2019: RM206.543 million) and operating loss was RM3.592 million (FY2019: operating profit of RM32.001 million).
The decrease in results were mainly due to reduced hire days (FY2020: 3,848 days vs FY2019: 5,010 days), a smaller fleet and a 14% drop in charter rates(FY2020: USD8,566/day vs FY2019: USD9,921/day).

Excluding the exceptional items, the Group recorded a profit before tax of RM6.006 million in Q4 FY2020 compared to a loss before tax of RM8.979 million in Q3 FY2020.

This is the statement i forward from the 31.12.2020 quarter report. i did understand the Maybulk capacity is 550,000 DWT. (how many vessel they did not mention).But if we discount the negetive factor like reduced hire days (FY2020: 3,848 days vs FY2019: 5,010 days), a smaller fleet and a 14% drop in charter rates (FY2020: USD8,566/day vs FY2019: USD9,921/day).Average rate as at 31.12.2020 is around (USD10,000.00-USD11,300.00/day) Maybulk rate is nearly 30% lower than average,why?

Then, if the above 2 factor still happen again in this quarter. may be we have to forget about 50-60mil revenue that can be realise by ended 31.3.2021.

Posted by sapurakencana > 2021-05-18 18:14 | Report Abuse

Wok,why you suddenly change Maybulk capacity fr 550,000 DWT to 450,000 DWT.Any changes in the quantity of vessel,pls let me know?

Posted by Wok > 2021-05-18 18:23 | Report Abuse

sapurakencana, i realised from the recent publishing it was 455 DWT. Just changed the estimate and did the simulation again. My rev estimate is around 45mil using average BDI at 1700 for Q1.

Posted by sapurakencana > 2021-05-18 18:34 | Report Abuse

If your estimation is Revenue 45mil,after deduct voyage expenses RM6.1Mil (assume same as previous quarter) & operating expenses 31.5Mil(assume same as previous quarter).the gross profit only 7.4 mil (0.74cent/share).

Posted by KuchingBoy > 2021-05-18 21:56 | Report Abuse

SBLK, GOGL dry bulk companies in USA is rocketing. Is that a good benchmark for Maybulk as well?

Posted by batu88 > 2021-05-18 22:13 | Report Abuse

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic
Extending losses for a fifth straight session, 2795 today. Remained high but with 5 straight losses, a bit worrying. Good news is supramax index was up 14 points, continue uptrend.

Posted by theavenger > 2021-05-19 09:46 | Report Abuse

nothing we can do now ...just buy and wait for the super financial result

Posted by chl1989 > 2021-05-19 15:48 | Report Abuse

agree

Posted by Powerplay666 > 2021-05-19 17:15 | Report Abuse

For those wondering why the price is dropping while BDI remains high, I've been told that Bank pembangunan has been selling off their shares almost daily but are almost done. Might still have several millions left. Once they have completed the selling, this counter will have no upwards resistance. Stay invested

Posted by theavenger > 2021-05-19 17:50 | Report Abuse

they sold around 2mil to 4 mil shares per day ..

Posted by theavenger > 2021-05-19 17:51 | Report Abuse

no worry ...believe in our belief

Posted by cherry88 > 2021-05-19 17:57 | Report Abuse

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3157976#

Posted by Parkdadguy > 2021-05-19 18:02 | Report Abuse

15m PAT w/o any one off... wow

Posted by chl1989 > 2021-05-19 18:03 | Report Abuse

amazing quarter

Posted by chl1989 > 2021-05-19 18:03 | Report Abuse

next quarter probably 20-25

Posted by Anyway5890 > 2021-05-19 18:04 | Report Abuse

qr is out guys

Posted by Powerplay666 > 2021-05-19 18:08 | Report Abuse

46 million revenue, 15 million net profits. Boom! And we know that we next Q2 and q3 is even looking far better because the bdi always lag behind on the spot prices. Gap up tomorrow

Posted by sapurakencana > 2021-05-19 18:13 | Report Abuse

PROSPECTS
Near term performance of the dry bulk sector is expected to remain positive as dry bulk volumes recovered and
markets rebounded from the 2020 COVID-19 shock. These conditions are expected to sustain into the second
quarter of 2021, supported by a combination of strong demand and temporary disruptive elements such as port
congestions.
While we expect Chinese steel output to remain high in Q2 2021, it is likely to come under pressure from Chinese
regulators later in the year seeking to rein in excess capacity and curb environmental pollution, which may impact iron
ore and coal imports.
The resurgence of COVID-19 infections in the Indian subcontinent and other parts of Asia also present downside
earnings risk, increase vessel trading complexities and quarantine risks. Consequently, the shipping industry will
continue to stay in a volatile trading environment and the path to economic recovery is likely to be uneven in the
coming quarters.

Posted by chl1989 > 2021-05-19 18:33 | Report Abuse

tp rm1

Posted by Lawman > 2021-05-19 18:40 | Report Abuse

Kudos to all shareholders who had the conviction to buy and hold and those who shared their insights and expertise. Q1 21 was better than we had expected. May we all all prosper :).

Posted by Powerplay666 > 2021-05-19 18:52 | Report Abuse

Excellent turnaround for Maybulk after 3 straight quarters of losses. Market will definitely react positively to the news! At least 90 sen to rm1!

Posted by Wok > 2021-05-19 18:57 | Report Abuse

My earlier simulation is rather close....if this is case, then going forward Q2 is very likely 65mil for revenue

Posted by Anyway5890 > 2021-05-19 19:17 | Report Abuse

finally turn around, but due to spike covid cases, everything is possible...lets see how market will react by tomorrow....

Posted by princehero > 2021-05-19 19:50 | Report Abuse

Worldwide market plunging... will
It affect tomorrow’s performance?

Posted by somo1 > 2021-05-19 19:56 | Report Abuse

All these exuberant comments after the just released quarterly?? Get real guys!

Posted by Hafid > 2021-05-19 19:58 | Report Abuse

the price built in already the result

Posted by Parksonguy > 2021-05-19 20:07 | Report Abuse

Yes. Fast sell, company no hope already. 20yrs company only five ship. Better early close shop dont waste time. Buy air asia. Maybulk gg liao.

Posted by Parksonguy > 2021-05-19 20:08 | Report Abuse

Company only have 5 ship still need manager? Ask them go die ba

Posted by Parkdadguy > 2021-05-19 20:57 | Report Abuse

no manager let ship floating on sea can generate income mie... u go back parkson work la dun kakacaucau here

Posted by Parksonguy > 2021-05-19 20:59 | Report Abuse

My mistake not 20yrs. Is 30yrs company plus only left 5ship in operation? Wtf. Malu lo. Close shop ba. Like proton sell sell ba. Only 5ship direct sell Singapore wilmar then close shop ba.

Posted by Parksonguy > 2021-05-19 21:03 | Report Abuse

Now know why the company worth 27sen. Is because the company only got 5 ship within 30yrs in shipping business.

Posted by Parksonguy > 2021-05-19 21:14 | Report Abuse

Aren't 30yrs time not enough proof the company worth? Do business till only left 5ships. Malu lo.

Posted by Parksonguy > 2021-05-19 21:22 | Report Abuse

If only got 5 ships only. Cant see meaning in the company. Why still pay the director fees instead just close shop then direct give wilmar privatise at 60sen better.

Posted by lewersmith > 2021-05-19 22:40 | Report Abuse

Kiongkan la, parkson, Parkson is the one who going bankrupt liao, go take care your parkson please

Posted by batu88 > 2021-05-19 23:26 | Report Abuse

2021 Q1 vs 2020 Q1, 8 vessel vs 10 vessel, operating expense reduce 12mil (23mil vs 35mil), 6 mil saving each vessel.
Even with Q1 21 TCE 12860 USD, average revenue (net of voyage expenses) = 41.7mil/8 vessels= RM5 mil.
Mean that if Maybulk maintain this 2 old vessels, they need to spend RM2mil more in operating expense. It's consider a good move to dispose loss making vessel to maintain high profit margin.

Q1 21 margin is around 35%. With expected TCE18k usd next Q, profit margin should be around 60%. Next Q2 result is targeting at least RM20mil. Let's wait for another 3 months.

Posted by chl1989 > 2021-05-20 00:21 | Report Abuse

plz panic sell everyone :)

Posted by chl1989 > 2021-05-20 00:21 | Report Abuse

sell down to 50c plz

Posted by Lawman > 2021-05-20 00:21 | Report Abuse

Parkson sounds like someone who got wounded in the crash 10+ years back and probably bought Maybulk around the price I sold ~RM4.30. Now Parkson forever pissed off till today warning people not to 'repeat' his mistake and buy this share.

Yo the directors collectively all-in made RM630.5k (2 ED and 8 non-ED) which is peanuts even the ED did not even earn RM100k last year. Common lah.

Agree with Hafid, the share price most likely already priced in for the earnings today (insiders already know the numbers). Definitely no gap-up and price will trend along with BDI movements...

Posted by kkteng70 > 2021-05-20 10:59 | Report Abuse

another BOOM

Posted by lewersmith > 2021-05-20 11:12 | Report Abuse

this stock need further analysis on this Q2 and Q3

Posted by Parksonguy > 2021-05-20 11:36 | Report Abuse

What analysis you require? The company only got 5 ships not 50 ships. Are 5 ships very hard calculate income?