Posted by sharonchong > 2021-06-16 19:00 | Report Abuse

No worries.. @Chief99... even the strongest bull need a rest ma.. haha...

Posted by sharonchong > 2021-06-16 20:27 | Report Abuse

Guys, see today's price index... Maybulk can be our best defensive fundamental counter for MCO 3.0...

BDI 3,025 -> 3,176 (+151, +5.0%)
BCI 3,695 -> 4,010 (+315, +8.5%)
BPI 3,407 -> 3,519 (+112, +3.3%)
BSI 2,667 -> 2,713 (+46, +1.7%)

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2021-06-16 21:28 | Report Abuse

Shipping is a high uncertainty industry as the rates are highly cyclical. You have to understand the basic dynamics first.

It takes 3-4 years to build a ship. When rates are high, companies rush to build ships. By the time the ships are build, all these ships get delivered at the same time and those rates collapse. Companies have no choice but to send their ships for scrap to earn some money. So the size of the fleet goes down at the time when the rates are low. And as the fleet size goes down it sets up the conditions for the rates to go up.

And then when the capacity goes down, and the rates goes up, you cannot bring in capacity as it takes 3 years to build the ship.

So the only thing that can happen is for the price to go exponential.

Now that prices are trending up. We also know that supply is limited as new ships would only arrive 3 years in the future. What about the demand side?

1) Global economies are in the midst of re-opening, on track for a V-shaped recovery
2) Unleash of pent-up demand to further boast for demand for commodities
3) Massive massive infrastructure stimulus by the economic powerhouse, China and US, further boost the demand for commodities. we are talking about more than 2 trillion of stimulus here by both countries

Limited supply coupled with explosive demand. What do you think is in play here?

Posted by sharonchong > 2021-06-16 21:43 | Report Abuse

Well explain Fabien.. Good job!

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-16 23:05 | Report Abuse

Wah after listen to sharon and fabien, more encouraging words... Im smiling again...

Posted by sharonchong > 2021-06-17 08:53 | Report Abuse

Most US dry bulk shipping companies up strongly for the past 5 trading days despite Dow Jones going down.

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 08:54 | Report Abuse

aiyo, only a bit... still haven;t learned from u lor... u always shout wan dollah or more than wan dollah... need to hear from you the reasoning too... then iq can increase abit lor...

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 08:57 | Report Abuse

Seems divergence happening...

sharonchong Most US dry bulk shipping companies up strongly for the past 5 trading days despite Dow Jones going down.

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 08:57 | Report Abuse

good news...

Posted by sharonchong > 2021-06-17 09:05 | Report Abuse

Yup chief999, divergence is evidence!

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 09:50 | Report Abuse

and today can finally see shipping gaining some strength in Malaysia... :)

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 09:55 | Report Abuse

where's my musangking? When wan dollah, i want buy a lot musangking to taste u... slurpy slurpy

Posted by sharonchong > 2021-06-17 10:40 | Report Abuse

Guys, dry bulk companies in Asia too going up strong! Ini kali lah..

Posted by risekita8 > 2021-06-17 10:41 | Report Abuse

At least there is a good sign

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 10:58 | Report Abuse

Hongkong only... malaysia still very slow... :(

sharonchong Guys, dry bulk companies in Asia too going up strong! Ini kali lah..

Posted by Booyeah > 2021-06-17 10:59 | Report Abuse

supramax index all time high.

Posted by sharonchong > 2021-06-17 11:14 | Report Abuse

Money from other sectors are pouring in due to MCO 3.0 and high Baltic index.. And Maybulk is lucky as it does not being affected by lock down, and it's also the only counter doing dry bulk shipping in Malaysia.. What if there's only one glove company in Malaysia during the pandemic... Can you imagine?

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 11:38 | Report Abuse

yes i understand the concept, however, money needs to start pouring in... volume now still a 7 mil, albeit slowly building up, need at least 50mil volume and above to convincingly take out previous high...

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 11:38 | Report Abuse

i guess, still need to depend on bdi to break new high... come on bdi...

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 11:51 | Report Abuse

wah musang, this mco u really enjoy urself hah... sleep until now only appear... so envy you....

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 12:02 | Report Abuse

so hows the talk with Wan Dollah? Can Too Dollah or not?

Posted by sharonchong > 2021-06-17 12:09 | Report Abuse

@chief999, Undoubtedly volume will push the price up fast, but honestly speaking I rather that not to happen... but prefer it to go up slowly but steadily... Personally I feel very comfortable with 5-10 mil volume now as I'm looking for long term + big gain, not small profit.. So, I hope it won't attract too many to come in at once...

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 12:17 | Report Abuse

ohh, sharon, nice thinking too... but in order for 85 cents to break, cannot ignore the earlier volume of 133mil.... need to get past that in order to slowly find a strong footing upwards... may I know what is the time frame you looking at? and when you said big gain, do you mean stopping at the earlier 1 to 1.2? anyway, been happy with the analysis so far... quite spot on...

sharonchong @chief999, Undoubtedly volume will push the price up fast, but honestly speaking I rather that not to happen... but prefer it to go up slowly but steadily... Personally I feel very comfortable with 5-10 mil volume now as I'm looking for long term + big gain, not small profit.. So, I hope it won't attract too many to come in at once...

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 12:18 | Report Abuse

ohh musang musang... you have a point too.. slowly enjoy the durian is an enjoyment... too fast finish also no good.... slurp slurp

Posted by sharonchong > 2021-06-17 12:28 | Report Abuse

@chief999, I am talking about 100%-150% gain in 3 to 6 months time...

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 12:33 | Report Abuse

from this level?

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 12:34 | Report Abuse

i mean from 0.73?

Posted by batu88 > 2021-06-17 14:35 | Report Abuse

@sharonchong
Compare to glove sector is not appropriate in Dry Bulk business. Malaysia is the top production in glove sector and also benefits of geographical indications. This is not the case for dry bulk business. As long as you got vessel, you can do the business.

But don't get me wrong, I'm still positive to dry bulk business and i hold some share of Maybulk.

Pros:
1. BDI is on uptrend now. If can sustain the current level of BDI, definitely will benefit Maybulk.
2. Maybulk vessel is quite new and average age of 5+ years. Operational cost should be remain
3. Demand vs Supply. Demand is remain strong for now and supply is remain low for at least for coming 2-3 years. A Stimulus Plan in US should keep the demand strong for raw materials.
4. Bank Pembangunan Malaysia Berhad should be no ticket left behind for Maybulk. Should not have big sell off for Maybulk.

Cons:
1. Maybulk only have 7 vessels for coming Q2 2021. Not sure is there a plan for Maybulk to buy more vessels in future. So far i did not heard any. If not, the profit will limited at 15mil-20mil max per quarter. It's good but not great.


From Sharochong:
Money from other sectors are pouring in due to MCO 3.0 and high Baltic index.. And Maybulk is lucky as it does not being affected by lock down, and it's also the only counter doing dry bulk shipping in Malaysia.. What if there's only one glove company in Malaysia during the pandemic... Can you imagine?

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 15:06 | Report Abuse

aiyo this Batu88, earlier ur analysis is the one getting us in... ur analysis already showed Q2 having 30mil PAT... now pula u go put 15mil PAT... mana boleh... TCE 12k already 15mil PAT now at least TCE already 20k very conservative... u still give 15mil PAT... aiyoyo... even musangking can detect good fruit or bad fruit....

Posted by batu88 > 2021-06-17 15:37 | Report Abuse

@chief999 my Q2 estimation at PAT 30mil is before they release Q1 result. So have to adjust it accordingly with 7 vessels left in Q2 2021. TCE 20k is too optimistic in my view, im still using TCE 15-18k in my own forecast. Thus my estimation for next Q PAT should be around 20mil for Q2 2021. there are some limitation there if vessels remain 7. anyway, 20mil PAT is still good resul. 80mil annual PAT with current market value of 730mil, forward PE is still single digit.

Posted by waikeong179 > 2021-06-17 15:45 | Report Abuse

20mil will not bring it back to earlier price stage...

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 15:46 | Report Abuse

yah 20mil is still good... but then again, cant u use Q1 data? 8 vessels already generating 46.6mil revenue? hmm.. 20kusd is already very conservative... this is already been achieved in end March... hence any ship going out in April onwards is already charging 20kUSD.... forget about May and June, coz time lag... this bulk bulk always give good headache to solve... but a surge of of BDI will not discount the surge in maybulk too... hope for the best

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 15:47 | Report Abuse

aiyoyo no ong lar... keep having many sellers at 73 and 725 and 720 too... hmm...

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 15:48 | Report Abuse

re: Musangking, why PE 3, gloves nobody wants... so strange...

Posted by okooi32 > 2021-06-17 17:18 | Report Abuse

Have to wait until break over 0.735
Than will come back 80cents story..........

Posted by lionhead > 2021-06-17 17:55 | Report Abuse

Q2 PROFIT 35M

Posted by sharonchong > 2021-06-17 20:17 | Report Abuse

Baltic indexes continue to go up on Thursday 17/6

BDI 3,176 -> 3,267 (+91, +2.9%)
BCI 4,010 -> 4,212 (+202, +5.0%)
BPI 3,519 -> 3,558 (+39, +1.1%)
BSI 2,713 -> 2,754 (+41, +1.5%)

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 20:33 | Report Abuse

Wah, Sharon, bdi up again... :)

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 20:33 | Report Abuse

Lion, how do you arrive at 35M? mind to share?

lionhead Q2 PROFIT 35M

Posted by pingdan > 2021-06-17 21:29 | Report Abuse

BDI record high since June 2010. (3,267)

Posted by sharonchong > 2021-06-17 21:31 | Report Abuse

The Baltic Dry Index rose 2.9% to 3,267 on Thursday, its highest since June 2010 and extending gains for a seventh straight session, supported by prospects of robust demand and despite China’s efforts to limit rising commodity prices. The capesize, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, surged 5% to a one-month high of 4,212; and the panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and iron ore, advanced 1.1% to 3,558, a peak since June of 2010. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index rose 41 points to 2,754.

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 21:37 | Report Abuse

No kidding.. New high... Happy for musangking

pingdan BDI record high since June 2010. (3,267)

Posted by mokluhanj21 > 2021-06-17 22:07 | Report Abuse

Guys, how are we feeling about Fed's tapering & China's crackdown on Copper and base metals?

I have a feeling that shipping's growth thesis may still hold.

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-17 23:13 | Report Abuse

Aiyo.. Big bulk shippers usually fetch iron ore coal and grains, multiple types of items... Not only base metals..

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-21 10:02 | Report Abuse

huhuhu... market all red... :(... when can i see my wan dollah...

Posted by sharonchong > 2021-06-21 11:17 | Report Abuse

Relax guys... sometimes correction is necessary..

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-21 13:38 | Report Abuse

Yes... Contrary to what i said.. Based on weekly, bdi actually had the best return or performance.. Against all asset classes.. Nasdaq dow, gold bond etc etc... Looking forward for the bounce..

Posted by chief999 > 2021-06-21 16:03 | Report Abuse

bulk bulk coming back... hooray...

Posted by Blackpepper2020 > 2021-06-22 00:16 | Report Abuse

There are plenty of useful information for each counter from the headlines (news and blog) in this forum.

this is one of the useful link shared in the headlines. kindly view it.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/undervalue/2021-06-12-story-h1566109640-Why_Maybulk_ASP_have_been_increased_by_almost_100.jsp

Posted by Blackpepper2020 > 2021-06-22 12:34 | Report Abuse

Baltic Exchange Dry Index is expected to trade at 3491.21 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4457.90 in 12 months time. Tradingeconomics.com