This is just the beginning of continuous uptrend of SILK. Both Silk O&G & Highway Division are extremely undervalued.
Highway Division - Historical traffic growth of 12% p.a & 63m cars p.a - avg toll at RM1.20 (including 20 sen compensation by gov) - Expected increase RM1.80 ( toll rate of RM1.50+ 30 sen compensation) - Toll concession have sticky customer base and 50 sen hike unlikely to deter growth of at least 10% - Expected EBITDA - FY2014: RM86m FY2015: RM118.2m - Estimated valuation - (8x EV/EBITDA) RM500m
O&G Division - owned 18 vessels (including 3 under construction) of which 7 are deep water vessels. At 85% utilisation rate all 7 vessels expected to contribute RM100m EBITDA. - High probability to secure Petronas deep water OSV contract - FY2013 EBITDA : RM173.1 FY2014 Est :RM200m - Estimated equity valuation (net of MI) - RM800 - Competitor EBITDA in comparison FY2014E : Alam: RM125.5m, Perdana- RM151.1m - Lower PAT due to : 1) aggressive depreciation policy of 15 years as opposed to 25 years (industry norm) 2) Presence of MI in JV co which is now 100% subsidiary of Jasa
Summary - Estimated valuation based on above assumptions - RM1.3bn. Assuming 30% haircut company is still worth at least RM1bn. In comparison current market cap stands at RM352m. Significant potential uplift in return
Disclosure: I am long SILK. I wrote this analysis myself, and it expresses my own opinions.Investors are advised to conduct own financial due diligence & company research before making an investment decision. I am not receiving compensation for it and I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this analysis.
Zack Liza how do you know CIMB collected at 65sen? All i know is that there are a lot of other investment banks that are accumulating SILK stock (not sure at which price). This means these banks will only start selling much later, it is still quite early to start selling it as this year's result will be better, plenty of upside. I even thought there will be a terrible technical sell down, and it only bleed 5sen during bad market condition. Hopefully will hit 80sen after CNY. and RM1 by March.
our company have 8 fund managers..i can monitor their transaction buy & sell..up to you...to me, if u confident certain stock u can hold...jangan ikut2 orang...studies before doing investment...
Last few days of sell down in US was a blessing in disguise. Silk was highly overbought and as a result have corrected & profit take. It's now ready to challenge the next target of 0.80.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
nch218
573 posts
Posted by nch218 > 2014-01-29 22:41 | Report Abuse
Thanks Mr Ooi for the stock pick...good angpau...
Any other picks?