Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-06 13:02 | Report Abuse

But personally I think the IPP won't be deferred. India definitely needs the electricity due to their recent massive nationwide brown outs!

Posted by JayC > 2013-01-06 13:40 | Report Abuse

I can only be certain that price will not go below 2.50. Hence, limited downside and potential huge upside

Posted by Rose > 2013-01-06 14:10 | Report Abuse

JayC you going to 888 very soon !

Posted by solarcell > 2013-01-07 17:04 | Report Abuse

very consistent down push power.

Posted by eric eow > 2013-01-07 21:38 | Report Abuse

celaka person,stock undervalue,just broke 2.70 ,push it back,don't know what they intention?

Posted by Frank Soweto > 2013-01-08 01:02 | Report Abuse

@eric - this one u have to have lots of patience and holding power. some issues not solve yet and also election risk as this is perceived as govt linked counter but earnings,dividens r good so for mid-long term only.

Posted by solarcell > 2013-01-08 13:10 | Report Abuse

stronger buy and sell at 2.7,
who have more bullets?

Posted by lawrencelim > 2013-01-08 14:15 | Report Abuse

mudajya always climb high during lunch time, but at closing time, someone will push down close to opening price....

Posted by Andrew Law > 2013-01-08 15:15 | Report Abuse

something is brewing... buy x 10!!!

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-08 15:15 | Report Abuse

2.82...2.82 please...... LOL

Posted by messibarca > 2013-01-08 15:20 | Report Abuse

282?

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-08 15:23 | Report Abuse

i wanted to say 3.28 highest for 52 weeks, but the last high before it dropped again to 2.56 last round was 2.82 :)

Posted by tonylim > 2013-01-08 15:30 | Report Abuse

past 2.80 worth a look

Posted by tonylim > 2013-01-08 15:31 | Report Abuse

lawrence lim, this counter can day trade of 10-15 sen, if there are good volume days

Posted by lawrencelim > 2013-01-08 15:48 | Report Abuse

construction stocks are in focus now... gamuda, wct and mudajya lead the construction index higher...

Posted by lawrencelim > 2013-01-08 15:55 | Report Abuse

there are about 3 call warrants expired in two months... This may limit the upside of mudajya in short term...

Posted by tonylim > 2013-01-08 15:57 | Report Abuse

yea, possiblity follow thru from some interest seen in ijm yesterday.
ijm is still at large today

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-08 16:29 | Report Abuse

Posted by lawrencelim > Jan 8, 2013 03:55 PM | Report Abuse
there are about 3 call warrants expired in two months... This may limit the upside of mudajya in short term...

Why the expiry of Mudajaya call warrants can limit the upside of Mudajaya share? Is it because of the action of issuer banks which would want to limit the payoff the call warrants at expiry? Of course there seems to have evidences to show that these happened before. If it is so, my questions for this thing happen for Mudajaya are as below?
1) Is it easy to manipulate a liquid stock like Mudajaya which has a market cap of 1.5 b? If issuer want to sell down Mudajaya share cheaply, other people or institutional investors would pick up cheap bargain. Won't they?
2) This is especially so the settlement price for call warrant is based on volume weighted average price of the last 5 day, and not closing price. How much capital issuer needs to do such manipulation?
3) Aren't there regulation to mitigate this kind of manipulation, though difficult to catch the culprits?
4) When investment banks issue call warrant, won't they have enough underlying share as a hedge and if dynamic hedging has been carried out by them, which is a prudent thing they should do, up and down of underlying share price, and hence settlement amount should not have much effect on issuer, at least theoretically.

Hope people in the know can enlighten.

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-08 16:31 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz what happened to kfima ah??i bought at rm2 like u said ...

Posted by passerby > 2013-01-08 18:02 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz & lawrencelim :

note to sure whether these are correct or wrong, these are what i have observed from the past & my opinions.

1.IBs will start manipulating underlying when small VOLUME movement for underlying will gives huge VOLUME & PRICE movement to SWs issued relatively regardless the market cap. As long as they are making MORE money by doing so even though it is liquid stock. That's the reason, i have tendency to avoid the SWs traded with huge volume compare to the underlying volume relatively - JCY & DRB are the example observed previously.

Track all those monthly market making reports volume might help you to decide better.

2. Not sure how much capital required, only IBs will know but they won't reveal their secret here i guess. They normally will joint manipulate with other IBs. Imagine you have CWs from A until J, all with expiry close to each another, from CIMB, Maybank, OSK, Kenanga, Ambank, BIMB, OCBC etc...each one give some effort already enough to give a significant impact

3. I doubt so if there is any regulation. it is so common to spot manipulation during first few days of new listing & few week ahead of expiry. so far, no action, so it is legal i guess :). you can also manipulate it against IBs if you got sufficient $$, lol

4. Not to sure on this but recall that i read before they need to hold certain volume of underlying as regulated by Bursa - look up for Alan Voon book . how much ? no idea. I see it as analogy the same as the issuance ETF Gold units where issuer need to hold certain amount of real physical gold before they can issue the ETF. the ratio, only the IBs & regulator/Bursa know & i doubt they will reveal their secret here again. if i'm not mistaken, they are making money regardless the SWs in money or out of money but they max out the profit if SWs out of money.

if wrong please correct :), paiseh paiseh again

Posted by passerby > 2013-01-08 18:07 | Report Abuse

need to look for assthrow, he is with IB :)

assthrow, where are you ? can reveal some ? :)

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-08 18:14 | Report Abuse

like i said, i never liked derivatives simply because its, to quote somebody, financial weapons of mass investment destruction. Why play the IB's games? But dont let me stop anybody yeah! :)

1)http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/05/07/us-hongkong-sfc-idUSTRE6462GN20100507

2) http://www.six-exchange-regulation.com/download/trading/participants/sanctions/decision_04_08_11_en.pdf

3) http://www.asiaetrading.com/two-warrant-traders-convicted-of-market-manipulation-in-hong-kong/

4) http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-derivatives-financial-weapons-of-mass-destruction-2012-11

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-08 18:23 | Report Abuse

passerby, how you know so much ah? Excellent explanations, especially your first and second point. Yeah a few call warrants by a few issuers expiring, it is very probable that they collaborate. Plenty of signs of them. My most recent experience on DRB CJ expiring 30/11/2012 shows someone just managed to control a bit only on the price movement, not depressing it. I seldom hold CW to expiry but this one I did, and quite a lot too because I was greedy about the discount and leverage presented. Luckily it ended up well. That is why i though may be it is not so easy to manipulate. But yeah, I think it is usually manipulated, depending on to what extent.
I asked this because there if is no manipulation, call warrants of Mudajaya, CH, CM and CJ present huge reward/risk ratio now. Instead of say buy 10000 shares of Mudajaya at 2,70 with 27,000 and hope Mudajaya goes up to 3.00 just to make RM3000, I can come out with just RM4800 to buy 120000 shares of CJ (expiring 28/2/13) to accomplish the same return. And that RM4800 is the maximum I can lose whatever happen.

Posted by passerby > 2013-01-08 18:48 | Report Abuse

lol, bang your head a few times on the wall, you will know which paths to avoid :)

if everyone thinks like you on Mudajaya, soon enough the volume traded for CWs far exceed the trading volume of underlying & will invite IBs to manipulate again :)

the ratio must be balance, volume of underlying traded must always be greater than volume traded for all SWs issued sum out, the greater the the different the better - means got real investors chasing after the underlying.

if the volume is vice versa - means a lot of punters awaiting ppl to fry underlying & not so many real investors taking up the underlying.

if you see something not right on the volume traded for SWs relative to underlying, time to say goodbye to your holding before too late

opinions again - might be wrong :)

Posted by tonylim > 2013-01-08 18:58 | Report Abuse

Looking at volume traded is the most difficult from my experience with umw cw when underlying was hovering 8.50 to 9

Posted by solarcell > 2013-01-08 22:02 | Report Abuse

like this stock volume, here are getting hotter. this is really a undervalue stock which many concerned but it still look like manipulate by small group of ppl.
anyone have link to show top shareholder?
2.82 is strong resistant, break it first.

Posted by lawrencelim > 2013-01-08 22:11 | Report Abuse

http://www.mudajaya.com/ls3.htm

Posted by Tan Cobby How > 2013-01-08 23:06 | Report Abuse

I will sell below its resistance level... Will buy back again if it really break the resistance

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2013-01-09 18:49 | Report Abuse

"Mudajaya, Koon Yew Yin in MoU with Myanmar govt. for coal-fired independent power plant, solar power plant in Mandalay" (The Star Alerts) --- Hope there's a good response from the market to this. This counter is in need of an impetus to really get going on. There have been encouraging signs of late although these are rather timid and tend to be checked. But it's time will come again, and I believe very soon.

Posted by eric eow > 2013-01-09 20:51 | Report Abuse

GOOD NEWS, MUDAJYA WILL TAKE 70% ,MR KOON 30% HOPE TOMORROW FLY HIGHER&HIGHER!

Posted by eric eow > 2013-01-09 22:42 | Report Abuse

WISH CAN BREAK 2.82 STRONG RESISTANT, RUN RUN RUN,

Posted by eric eow > 2013-01-09 22:44 | Report Abuse

ANYBODY KNOW THE FORMER MD,DATO NG , PLS TELL HIM DON'T SELL,IS UNDERVALUE,LET PEOPLE GOT CONFIDENCE TO BUY

Posted by lawrencelim > 2013-01-09 22:54 | Report Abuse

It is still very initial stage of the MoU...Unlikely to have big impact unless some figures are provided...

Posted by sixteenblue > 2013-01-10 07:56 | Report Abuse

"Mudajaya a step closer to Myanmar power deal"
http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/muda09/Article/

Posted by minitrader > 2013-01-10 09:14 | Report Abuse

hahaha...flying today...luckily bought some yesterday....:) smile

Posted by Tan Cobby How > 2013-01-10 10:13 | Report Abuse

minitrader, on what basis u bought on yesterday ? Mind say ? I hold these stocks quite some last time, but sold most last week... (being shaken out, I think)

Posted by minitrader > 2013-01-10 10:21 | Report Abuse

the trading pattern for the past few days was just a bit weird...i suspect sth going on, though this may be my gut feeling only...So, I went in n parked at 2.69 n 2.68...luck probably...

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2013-01-10 11:35 | Report Abuse

This is `only' a MoU, true. But it's good news nonetheless. That matter about the coal supply for the power plant in India is much more important and will be the catalyst for a solid uptrend . Mudajaya had said that this matter should be fully resolved around the middle of Dec. 2012-early 2013. when this is officially announced, this counter will go to where it should be based on fundamentals - above 3.00.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-10 13:45 | Report Abuse

Mat Cendana, you call warrant punter, you must have tikamed some call warrants of Mudajaya kuat kuat and manyak kaya now!

Posted by passerby > 2013-01-10 14:15 | Report Abuse

lol, if MC bought a lot, kcchongnz must have a few loaded trucks :)

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-10 14:44 | Report Abuse

Posted by kcchongnz > Jan 8, 2013 06:23 PM
[I asked this because there if is no manipulation, call warrants of Mudajaya, CH, CM and CJ present huge reward/risk ratio now. Instead of say buy 10000 shares of Mudajaya at 2,70 with 27,000 and hope Mudajaya goes up to 3.00 just to make RM3000, I can come out with just RM4800 to buy 120000 shares of CJ (expiring 28/2/13) to accomplish the same return. And that RM4800 is the maximum I can lose whatever happen.]

passerby, that was exactly what I did above. I bought 120000 shares of Mudajaya CJ at 1 sen (not truck load) a week ago and sold at 2 sen this morning. 100% gain but in absolute value just RM1200. Not much. I haven't told you how much I have lost for other call warrants yet.

The point I would like to reiterate is think of the risk and compare with the reward, and don't be too greedy. Imagine if I use RM27,000 to buy Mudajaya CJ and hope to make hundreds of thousands, and if the price of Mudajaya just stay stagnant, I would lose all RM27,000. It happened to me a couple of years ago on one hsbc call warrant.

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-10 14:47 | Report Abuse

ouch.... but with your astute calculations (no malice here), you should easily be making back more right, kcchongnz?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-01-10 14:54 | Report Abuse

Dear valued members,

I always like to trade warrant, I had made money from warrant.

My rule is the expiration date of the warrant must be > 3 months.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by minitrader > 2013-01-10 14:59 | Report Abuse

u can go either way, mother or call warrants...it's the risk and reward that counts...the higher your risk, the higher your reward/return, n vice versa...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-10 15:01 | Report Abuse

KC Loh, to be frank, my punting call warrants is quite rewarding, both in terms of return and excitement. I only have about 10% of my money in call warrants and hence there is a limit of how much I can make (or lose) from call warrants. I have my own spreadsheet tracking all my punts and investments. The return is very volatile. But seriously, this kind of punting is not suitable for everybody. It involves some knowledge , guts and disciplines. The theory involved in call warrants is important to know(for calculations and valuations which I have spreadsheets to do them), but most of all it is the market and trading knowledge of it which is more important. This I am happy to have learned some from a number of contributors here.

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-10 15:05 | Report Abuse

good for you kcchong..so far, i see your calls on most warrants looks logical from what your reasoning is/are! call more! :)

never liked derivatives, although i can understand the risk -return ratio and excitement!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-10 15:13 | Report Abuse

Mr Ooi, correct me if I am wrong. Call warrants are just like the options in the US option market. Individual can also write options. They can have a combination of put and call options at various exercise price and expiry dates, financially engineered to have all kinds of payoff with funny names like butterfly, straddle, strap,etc. Most of these options are short durations, aren't they? I found short duration call warrants more exciting, especially when it is coming from out-of-money to just in-the-money, the high gearing, and the spike of volatility when closing to expiry date.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2013-01-10 15:24 | Report Abuse

@kcchongnz, definitely. It's the same as yours - CJ. But mine is more expensive at 0.015. I'm using the same logic and strategy as you are. This one is definitely exciting and can go both ways - short expiry date but balance with it being tantalisingly close to the ex. price of 2.80 (Ratio 5:1). This is definitely achievable... if interest in Mudajaya is sustained. The potential profit/loss percentage-wise will be very significant - at least 50% either way. I'm in because money-wise I won't be losing that much even if it doesn't go up.

Posted by necro > 2013-01-10 15:35 | Report Abuse

Bila mou tu..

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2013-01-10 15:50 | Report Abuse

I still have the mother because this is such a good company which I feel is undervalued (and under-appreciated). But sooner or later, more investors (institutions especially) will realise this. It regularly pays out dividends - this fact alone justifies having it in your portfolio.

Call warrants: as mentioned by kcchongnz, it offer a (much) cheaper way to have positions in counter which you think have the potential to go up. With everyone, no matter how much he has (including Warren Buffett), capital is always limited. So, often one can only buy some of the counters while foregoing those which he also likes. But CWs offer an alternative where one can also have positions in more counters while not blowing his allocated budget.

Just be aware of the risks where losses will tend to be magnified. The mother might lose only 5% but the CW might shed 30%. And you can wait YEARS for the mother to perform. With CWs, the clock is always ticking. Risk management is important here. So is doing research to balance the facts and potentials... basic things like the ex. price, expiry, premium. Then you must be decisive - when things don't go your way, you'll have to make a decision fast: cut loss now or wait. But whatever, you must have a strategy. Stick to it but at the same time remaining flexible - when previous assumptions change, then you must act accordingly.