Posted by Andrew Law > 2012-07-23 15:42 | Report Abuse

this counter is bleedign me money. most research house target sky high but counter never move.

Posted by James Woon > 2012-07-23 15:50 | Report Abuse

fundamental wise it is good...but technical wise it has a sideways trend for around 2 months...i already sold mine when it hit 2.80 in the early of June...with current trend it could drop further unless the volume goes up with more buying.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-07-24 15:11 | Report Abuse

Buying opportunity is here again. esos declared and at 1.90, dragging the whole valuation down. Golden opportunity for those to get in when the stock is relatively cheap now

Posted by jacklew > 2012-07-24 16:48 | Report Abuse

muda on sales?

Posted by dknycom > 2012-07-24 16:50 | Report Abuse

TARGET BUYING PRICE RM 2.50 TOMORROW.
PLEASE STANDBY TO BUY NOW...

Posted by yfchong > 2012-07-24 16:53 | Report Abuse

@ jacklew u are back any news for Ann joo ??

Posted by jacklew > 2012-07-24 16:56 | Report Abuse

the price is steady at 1.65-1.67....hold until August, quarterly report should be good...

Posted by Eden Thean > 2012-07-24 17:13 | Report Abuse

i tot 2.65 is the best buying price T.T

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-07-24 17:26 | Report Abuse

I got mine previously at 2.56, saw it race to 2.81, collected the last dividends, and now seeing it come back to my previous entry level. Not sure why esos is at 1.90 pulling the price down, but the valuation remains high from fundamentals. Research will be required again here.

This share could be a frustration to many because it has a bad track record before resulting in SC querying once and it may have cost the previous MD his job. I recall many got burnt. So once bitten, twice shy I guess. It remained sideways for most of June and July due to selling pressure. Probably those who bought during its betrays of 4.60.

I will provide research report if I find anything here.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-07-24 17:31 | Report Abuse

Sorry, its supposed to read "heyday of 4.60" :)

Posted by yfchong > 2012-07-24 19:34 | Report Abuse

Thks kc your work is appreciated, I tempt to go in again at 2.50 looks attractive. If have rebound sure ok la but esos at 1.90 tension when is their exercise date or already begins......

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-07-24 19:59 | Report Abuse

OSK report is always a down on Mudajaya. at 50% discount on their SOP valuation, is because they are stating that 80% of their next recurring revenue is from the Indian IPP project. it means that if the project sails thru, a valuation of 2.88x 2 = 5.76 is arrived. This is not impossible since one stage it reached 5.60. This indicates to me there are a lot of upside potential. the only negative part is the qualitative aspect, in that many were burnt previously. This esos has thrown the pricing to a crazy low. And i think its time to enter.

now, assuming things are getting better, and with 60% Chhartisgarh completed (on track by year end) and the few projects won from the MRT tracts, wont you think 2.54 (today's price) is really undervalued? More so, they just paid dividend, so go by logic! taking away 5.76 full valuation for a while, even if they hit 3.60, of which i think they will next year, i think you have a good margin of safety in this entry level.

be at your discretion when you should enter. I have locked in quite a lot and the fundamentals tells me, something will be afoot about the price by next year. Please be advised i wont know if market will crash or what the outcome of the election is. Know you own risk -reward threshold. That is all i could advised. This counter can certainly test your patience!

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-07-24 20:06 | Report Abuse

yfchong.. FYI. listing date is tomorrow

https://www.dropbox.com/s/625irivn7y6xwfw/Company%20Announcements%20-%20Bursa%20%28mudajya%29.png

Posted by andyteng > 2012-07-24 20:19 | Report Abuse

downtrend.sell

Posted by yfchong > 2012-07-24 20:38 | Report Abuse

Almost at the beginning of oversold check point, dun known all the contra player still holding this counter else tension..........

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-07-24 20:47 | Report Abuse

yeah, from the charts, it is indeed oversold both in MACD and RSI. but what do i know about technical analysis? LOL

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2012-07-24 21:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by franksoweto > 2012-07-24 21:21 | Report Abuse

KC - FA just like his 'brother' KCFan and Ooi TA - great combination for success :)

Posted by franksoweto > 2012-07-24 21:23 | Report Abuse

Personally I like Mudajaya, will look at the suggestion of Ooi as Fundamentally this counter is sound - just need to get a good price to enter :)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-07-24 21:44 | Report Abuse

Thanks Ooi. I understand what you are trying to say :)

Good to have "techies" (lol) watching my back for short-termism!

Franksoweta, I had always believe FA & TA is two sides of the coin! Each has its strength and weaknesses. And you are right, if one can master both, probably higher chance of success than average.

I only like FA more because it allows me to sleep easier at night, knowing my liking to crunch numbers

Posted by yfchong > 2012-07-24 22:42 | Report Abuse

Another challenging day 2morrow Dow opening still at negative sign, hope Dow will recover soon........just checking 3days hat-trick.....

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-07-24 23:17 | Report Abuse

Mudajaya has come down to an attractive level. If it touches 2.50, I'm adding more... and wait to sell at 2.80-something. This has been Mudajaya's trend over the past few months.

Posted by franksoweto > 2012-07-24 23:46 | Report Abuse

Absolutely Agree KC! I don't know much if at all on TA ( learning a bit here )but mostly FA and used to based my buying on research report by all these so called bank analysts - some of them are good but some are mostly sort of 'herd mentality' following another house report. Also agree with mat but will buy at 2.46 as this is a long term good stock. My average on this is still 3.00 that I bought couple of years back at 4+ but managed to average down at a little at 2.69 but seeing now the market is bearish and in no hurry. I'm not good at crunching no's so I'll leave it to KC :) Like KC said I like to have good night sleep :)

Posted by yfchong > 2012-07-25 08:17 | Report Abuse

Well I have learned a lot from all the senpai-in this forum, i need to level up my FA and TA as well as Emotional....... Let's witness can Young + Sucess (MJ)....can reach to the dream TP. Another 45mins will see....

Posted by franksoweto > 2012-07-25 10:10 | Report Abuse

did anyone see the selling queue on mudahjaya 50435 at 2.55??? fishy fishy!

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-07-25 10:57 | Report Abuse

This is factoring in the new shares for Esos. The current dip of the price is to be expected. Of course, take cognizance of the fact that those without any idea what's going on will panic and sell, what with so many negative news currently. I can bet you so many are already thinking the crash is dawning! Typical aunties mentality! :)

Posted by yfchong > 2012-07-25 11:35 | Report Abuse

Relax, Bro's just prepare $$$ to get in when it comes to personal TP, Then will surf with the waves..

Posted by jacklew > 2012-07-30 10:54 | Report Abuse

Mudajaya: FSA Resolution Soon? (MDJ MK, Outperform, TP: RM4.60)
Re. our report dated May 2, the Fuel Supply Agreement (FSA) is still not concluded as yet, raising concerns on coal supply which might render the Group's 1,440 MW power plant in India idle. True, the delay is longer than expected but as we indicated, coal supply commitment might be affected, not coal supply. Moreover, coal prices have retreated more than 40% ytd, which could help CI to be more accommodative with the FSA terms, due to lower 'subsidy' burden.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-01 11:55 | Report Abuse

Anybody read news in the Star newspaper today? Half of India is without power. Well, tis was reported by the edge financial 1 day prior.

I can bet that mudajaya will have full capacity going with immediate pressing presidential orders follow-up. This beckons well, because there are still land in their vicinity to increase infrastructure. For those worried about 80% hedge risk of their Book orders in India, I think management made the correct bet. India should keep Mudajaya busy until 2018 at the very least and investors happy starting 2013 onwards :)

Posted by franksoweto > 2012-08-01 11:58 | Report Abuse

I hope so KC- still losing on my mudajatuh!

Posted by kl foong > 2012-08-01 12:01 | Report Abuse

Any new regarding the FSAs ?
CIL board meeting suppose to decide the issue yesterday.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-01 12:04 | Report Abuse

Frank, how much did you get in for?

Posted by franksoweto > 2012-08-01 12:09 | Report Abuse

as crazy as it sounds I got in just before the poison pill - about 4.70 but I average about 3.00 now. in between I did a little buy and sell - buy at 2.70 and sell at 3.00. remember back then analyst kept raising the price and I think CIMB was the highest at 7+. I'll keep this and sell some when it hit 3.00 as I also just bought 2 weeks ago at 2.70+. I'm keeping at little for alam and protasco :)and also just incase of a sell down!

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-01 12:18 | Report Abuse

kl foong , I am made to understand that the local authorities is against IPP and informed the residents there that the price of electricity will rise due to CIL's action and boo-boo. CIL backtracked and, despite presidential order, still stalling it because some of the future president's men are manning CIL. Worse is Manmohan cannot push it thru because it's his mentor. Some had hope manmohan's taking back of finance portfolio would expedite it, but I guess Manmohan is just leaving it to the international community to complain about this basic necessity if they see the economy slump further. The recent price nosedive may have explained it. Ah, the follies of politics.

However, with international pressure and the recent downwards price of coals, , I think it will eventually pull thru. India, the third largest economy in Asia, just has too much to lose if they don't get their act together. Either way, as mentioned in my previous posts, I don't see any problem to Mudajaya. They will not be affected unless a new socialist government decides to come in and kick Mudajaya out!

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-01 12:21 | Report Abuse

Frank, avg 3.00 and you are worried? Next year I join you in the Heineken fest!

Posted by franksoweto > 2012-08-01 12:25 | Report Abuse

Nah, KC not now - was at 4+!!! Just that want to clear some for better looking ones. looking at alam too - very attractive. almost bought when it was about .90++ but decided to postpone after the debacles of my knm and perdana.

Posted by franksoweto > 2012-08-01 12:26 | Report Abuse

Hey KC all the heine will be on me - also the eggs too :) if y

Posted by franksoweto > 2012-08-01 12:27 | Report Abuse

darn! fingers to fast! - if you join me :)

Posted by kl foong > 2012-08-01 12:29 | Report Abuse

Loh, TQ for the feedback.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-01 12:35 | Report Abuse

Oooooo eggs eggs! Happy! Happy!

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-08-01 12:40 | Report Abuse

That's the problem with India that is holding it back. It has the numbers, with its huge young population, generally educated workers, good working knowledge of English, independent judiciary etc. But their infrastructure is rather poor and there's not much money since most is spent on subsidies.

Then there are the irresponsible politicians who want to project themselves as `people's hero' and `defenders of the people' and instigating others. Previously (and now thankfully dormant) were the religious bigots who had instigated chilling riots and killings. Now many politicians are targeting businesses, like Mudajaya's project. It's like wanting to have your cake and eat it too... wanting power but expecting others to sacrifice for them.

But I believe this matter will be resolved. And it will be thanks to India's educated population. With Mudajaya, this is one of the very few counters that I'm most comfortable with. If it goes lower, then I see it as an opportunity to buy some more. One day, when Mudajaya reaches the level that it should rightly be, we will look back to today and question ourselves: "To think that it was once at 2.50 and below... but I didn't buy!".

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-01 13:09 | Report Abuse

these people's hero and defenders of the people, do they wear medieval knights' suit too? :)

Posted by raviy2k13 > 2012-08-01 13:50 | Report Abuse

Looking at the bright side, the recent power calamity in north India augurs well for more power plant projects. Potentially RKM Powergen will benefit from their recent success through this JV with Mudajaya.

Posted by sugar_crackers > 2012-08-01 14:04 | Report Abuse

i'm watching of mudajaya recently, both the TA and FA is looking good, any suggestion for the entry price? Sorry im still a newbie...

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-01 14:07 | Report Abuse

below 2.60

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-08-01 16:53 | Report Abuse

sugar_crackers: But be prepared to settle and wait a bit. Contra trades might not work with this counter although sometimes you would get lucky. Like today, with its good volume. This is a counter that will reward those who are patient.

By the way, I had just recommended it to my father. Now, he's a lot more experienced than I am - been in the market since the early 1970's and has survived all the bad times. But I have a few advantages over him and one is the information and opinions at this group:-) Among my father's advantages: he has the staying power... can wait for YEARS for a counter to finally go his way.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-01 19:41 | Report Abuse

here's bloomberg's take. US$400Bn for the next 5 year. US$80bn per year... geezz.. Malaysia's RM60Bn+ stilumus package pales in comparison.

Suddenly, i am feeling sorry for Ani Arope but glad i am on Mudajaya's side! hehehe

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-31/india-power-grid-collapses-for-second-time-in-two-days.html

Posted by franksoweto > 2012-08-01 22:57 | Report Abuse

More contracts for mudajatuh :)

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/217936-mudajaya-unit-gets-contract-worth-rm30-million-.html

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-01 23:09 | Report Abuse

Small one. But so long as they keep themselves busy and winning contracts, who's complaining! Hehe

Posted by passerby > 2012-08-01 23:30 | Report Abuse

Small small projects if sufficient in quantity add up can be equivalent to 1 big project contract value.

Furthermore, risk of multiple small size projects are much less than 1 big project for the contract that worth equivalent value.

Imagine if contractor unable collect their claims or cash flows stuck for 1 big project, whole company financial at stake - ( Muhibbah APH ).

But looking at the size of Mudajaya, I doubt they will go after all those small small projects.