At last, after months of the share price slowly bleeding. The previous quarter's results definitely weren't good. But that's secondary when it comes to share price. For every counter, there will be the point of capitulation when most everyone gives up and sell. That leaves only those who are strong holders.
People like Johny has not sold because they are still faithfully holding on to your every words about the Indian power plants; that when they started firing MudaJaya will have a very high recurring income that will be able to support the share price at upto 2 to 3 ringgit.
I am searching for news for today surge, but not getting anything.. I do not think it is the firing but something else. Even analyst cimb also told the delay will also take place in 2016.. but who knows sometimes miracles do happen.. I think they are going to get some local projects..
When I wrote about Mudajaya, I was told that its Indian Electricity Power Project should be profitable because the agreed selling rate to the Indian Authorities included a 15-18% profit margin basing on all the cost including foreign exchange and inflation. Unfortunately, Mudajaya was played out by their Indian Joint Venture partners.
Price of Mudajaya went up abt 20% on 02 Sep. Interesting?
Is it possible that Koon Koon knows something is happening in Mudajaya now and the article he posted on 30 Aug was his effort to scare the shit out of you so that he could buy in at this level, after he disposed all at above Rm2.00 last year?
FYI,Koon Koon is an insider too....
Koon Koon wrote on Jun 10, 2014 10:30 PM |
Mudajaya and I in 70:30% JV signed a MOU with the Chief Minster of Mandalay Region more than one year ago. This announcement was properly made in accordance with Bursa Malaysia.
yes they got local project from rapid,, costing 489 million..i told it was related something local not the powerplant firing..but if it fires then much better ha
Mudajaya Group Rapid job win gives temporary reprieve ■ Mudajaya has won a sizeable EPCC contract for Petronas's Rapid. ■ The RM489m contract is a positive surprise in terms of value, but in line with EPS forecasts. ■ Sustained recovery in order wins beyond 2015 remains uncertain. ■ Upgrade to Hold but prefer Muhibbah Engineering for bigger exposure to Rapid. RM489.4m new EPCC contract for Petronas's Rapid Mudajaya was awarded an engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) contract to undertake the construction of a workers’ village and temporary construction facilities for the Utilities, Interconnecting and Offsite (UIO) facilities for Petronas's Rapid project. The job was awarded by PRPC Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Petronas, and is scheduled for completion by mid-May 2017 (1.5 years). This is a notable development for Mudajaya as it is the group's first contract award in 2015. Positive surprise in terms of value, but neutral to EPS This award is a positive surprise for its size and scale, but relatively neutral in terms of impact to EPS forecasts – we project RM500m in total contract wins for FY15. This job substantially increases the group’s massively-depleting outstanding order book of c.RM150m (our estimate) as at 2Q15 by more than threefold to RM639m. While this provides a temporary reprieve, the catch here is that the new order book level would not last more than 1.5 years, given the annualised 1H15 burn-rate of RM450m. Joining the league of Rapid contractors raises its profile Mudajaya joins the league of a handful of contractors which have won specialised packages in Rapid (see table overleaf), raising its profile as it diversifies its civil engineering experience into downstream oil & gas construction. The EPCC nature of the contract could translate to slightly higher pretax margins of 6-7% compared to pure-open tender infra job’s 4-5%. We estimate net profit contribution of RM10m-14m p.a. based on a 6% pretax margin assumption; supporting our forecast of a recovery in FY16. But 6-9 months order book visibility still weak This development does not totally mitigate risks of sustained earnings weakness following its core net loss of RM32m in 1H15, though the 3-month contribution from this new job should prevent the group from reporting losses for the full-year. Our concerns on weak tender visibility going into 2016 remain unchanged as most of the potential awards for the sector in the next 6-9 months are unlikely to be sizeable for Mudajaya and falls outside of its expertise in power plant construction and highways. Upgrade to Hold; good news largely in the price We raise our RNAV-based target price as we narrow our discount from 50% to 40% to reflect the stock's medium-term sentiment recovery. We upgrade our call from reduce to Hold. Limited new catalysts ahead (beyond this new contract award) suggest a slim scope for a further re-rating for the stock, up 18% since end-Aug. Switch to Muhibbah Engineering for a bigger exposure to Rapid and US$-play.
Arresting concerns of major job depletion this year Mudajaya's announcement of a sizeable EPCC contract win for Petronas's Rapid project comes as a surprise in terms of value. It represents the group's single largest EPCC job related to the initial construction and civil works for the development of a major downstream oil & gas refining facility. This should temporary allay concerns over its hugely run-down order book since early this year – lower revenue from a depleting order book had led to a RM32m core net loss in 1H15 – and raises its profile to a level similar to other pure contractors which have won at least one package in Rapid in 2012. Overall, it addresses our concerns on its job depletion YTD but does not ultimately change its tender prospects going to 2016, in our view. Its job visibility beyond the next 6-9 months remains weak compared with other contractors under our coverage. Overall, we believe the scope for further re-rating is limited due to key reasons below. Sustained weak quarterly results in 2H15, dragged down by the effects of weak construction billings in 1H15. Weak property earnings as management had been less aggressive in property launches YTD due to the general weakness in the property market. Persistent delays in the commissioning of the group's 26%-owned coal-fired power plant in Chhattisgarh, India. Core operating losses in 2H15 looks likely to spill over to 3Q15 (though losses could narrow), before recovering in 4Q15 on the back of this new contract.
Upgrade to Hold; limited scope for further re-rating Our FY15-17 EPS forecasts are unchanged, as the new job value is largely in line with our assumption of RM500m worth of new jobs for FY15. We continue to assume RM800m to RM1bn worth of new contracts p.a. for FY16-17 but flag likely downside risks if the tender outlook for larger value jobs does not improve going into 2016. This development should improve sentiment on the stock over the medium term but we believe further scope for a re-rating is limited. The share price has recovered 18% since end-Aug. We raise our target price as we cut our RNAV-discount from 50% to 40% and upgrade our recommendation from reduce to Hold.
skyz nothing impossible in share market. The criteria is whether the new development of the company and news strong enough to attract the investor grab the stock or not
ating • SELL, TP: RM0.71 • With the continued weak results, it is hard to justify anything aside a SELL rating. While we acknowledge there is value in its IPP, the market is unlikely to ascribe much to it until commercial operations take off.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Vaylens Chong
1,120 posts
Posted by Vaylens Chong > 2015-09-02 16:28 | Report Abuse
yup....keep buying now!!!