Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-19 12:12 | Report Abuse

my TP 2.2 end year, annual earn 100m @ PE 9.5, should be reasonable

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-19 12:17 | Report Abuse

after rpt out tp 1.6 before correction. then i foresee GE announce in mar/apr will slowing klci bullish

Posted by WarrenL > 2018-02-19 12:17 | Report Abuse

Too early to tell TP. Stay tuned guys and wait for good news !

Posted by Ahmad Razin Hj Yob > 2018-02-19 12:37 | Report Abuse

1.38 good

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-19 12:47 | Report Abuse

Too early?? Investor must able to calculate future PE on growth to become worth holder. Thats what IBs is doing all the time. They pay visit to company, do interview, research on prospect growth, study raw mat and other potential impact to profit.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-19 12:54 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/capital-edge-best-call-awards-2017

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-19 12:56 | Report Abuse

Their performance by picking the right stock will be rewarded and recognized. If you want to be great investor, you must able to learn from them too.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-19 13:01 | Report Abuse

If you are new (i think so based on how you comment), you can follow them (award winners) to increase your chance to make profit in stock trade

Posted by mmk79 > 2018-02-19 13:57 | Report Abuse

Just sapu Masteel tutup mata.

Posted by MrPauper > 2018-02-19 14:51 | Report Abuse

But historical eps is not adjusted for latest bonus issue and moreover share price is adjusted, thus giving a distorted pe ratio. Otherwise, its adjusted pe ratio is even higher than annjoo

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-19 15:27 | Report Abuse

I calculated based on forecast annual earnings and after bonus share 427m. TP 2.2 @ PE 9.5, 100m. Pls calculate.

Posted by titus > 2018-02-19 16:00 | Report Abuse

@superPanda, u TP for masteel is RM 2.2 even after bonus??? WOW!!!!.....that is very optimistic but i like ur optimism. Hope your TP come true ......

Posted by wingold > 2018-02-19 16:36 | Report Abuse

masteel banyak kuat ohhhhhh

Posted by Dollar168 > 2018-02-19 17:59 | Report Abuse

Anyone can advice When will receive the bonus shares ? I bought on 12 feb 10am, i havent receive it yet.

Posted by ychingooi > 2018-02-19 18:20 | Report Abuse

@dollar168 you have to buy before 12am of 12feb.

Posted by bluebiznet > 2018-02-19 18:30 | Report Abuse

Buy on ex date is not entitle

Posted by Dollar168 > 2018-02-19 18:38 | Report Abuse

@ychingooi @bluebiznet beginner here not sure about that. Thanks for the advice.

Posted by Jamaica > 2018-02-19 19:35 | Report Abuse

Fair value already.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-19 19:46 | Report Abuse

@Jamaica.. or maybe another kyy supporter with new id but same person.

ok give chance, based on what u evaluate fair value?

Posted by Babihutan88 > 2018-02-19 20:21 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan up. Fuyo

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-19 21:50 | Report Abuse

@babihutan88, 2 of my stock pick for 2018 has perform well. Wait for another 3.

1. Masteel
2. HY
3. Dayang
4. VS-WA
5. KGB-WA

Next is dayang and kgb, rpt will out this week. VS will out in Mac.

Posted by 股灾来了 > 2018-02-20 09:13 | Report Abuse

32M PAT.

Posted by HuatRex > 2018-02-20 16:11 | Report Abuse

Correction coming

Posted by cksam > 2018-02-20 17:47 | Report Abuse

If share price movement is determined by calculating the PE and EPS then there will be no poor investors in Bursa. Who don't know 1 + 1 - 2 ? The problem is price discovery of share price is not that straight forward. There are a lot of factors determine the movement of share price namely earnings, growth prospect and so on.

The current share price of Masteel is a reflection of previous earnings. Hence the future price of Masteel will be determined by future earnings which we do not know. Thus it will be a wild guess among the investors. Some may say it will be better due to factor a or b or c. Only the insiders know what's happening in the company.

The daily movement of any share price is determined by 70% emotions and 30% fundamentals. Sometimes when expectations are overly bullish then this will create a buyers market where demand more than supply as in the case of Masteel now. Most investors are very bullish about the coming QR and expects it to be extremely good. However, i reckon the current share price of Masteel has somehow been reflected the good news. Or in short, it has already been priced in.

Thus i wonder what will happen if the coming QR profit is less rosy than expected? The share price of Masteel soon will drop drastically. I reckon this might e the scenario when i look at Masteel's price movement for the past few days. To me, it is more like distribution than accumulation.

Anyway, have a nice day and happy trading !!

Posted by bluebiznet > 2018-02-20 18:22 | Report Abuse

Well said. CKsam

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-20 19:11 | Report Abuse

To @cksam ..

1. Share price movement is determined by calculate PE & EPS then there will be no poor investor in Bursa.
- 1 ringgit gives 5c return or 10c return which is better? Thats EPS
- 1 ringgit for 5 pcs Hacks sweets or 10 pcs for Hudsons sweets? Thats PE
Both were not for share price movement, its to decide which more attractive and cheaper.

2. Current share price of masteel is reflected of previous earnings.
- Which prev earnings you referred to? quarter or annual? then at what eps or pe it referred to and is the current price undervalue, fair or overvalue?

3. Future price of Masteel determine by future earnings we do not know.
- Then what all IB's and stock analyst doing are worth of nothing. They pay visit to premise, study balance sheet, do market & swot analysis, monitor material cost and global economic forecast.

4. Daily movement of any share price is determined by 70% emotion and 30% fundamental.
- Who said this? Is it you or warren buffet or any stock expert quote in investing book or journal? If 70% share price is determined by emotion, then no need fund manager. FYI, fund manager consist of almost 80% of market share trading in KLCI. Retailers at 20% only.

5. Thus I wonder what will happen if the coming QR profit is less rosy than expected.
- Thats is what IBs and sifu in stock doing. They do analysis before invest. The dont wondering. Thats the different in buying TOTO and buying stock. They forecast future earnings based on research, not just simply buying.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-20 19:19 | Report Abuse

I would like to share this again. Hopefully it will make you better investor. Many retail investor begin trading w/o proper knowledge and end up risk to losing.
Some of new investor problem:

On selecting stock;
1- No idea on company biz/product and market
2- Dont have basic financial skill or FA
3- Dont learn TA
4- Dont keen to read qtr or annual rpt

On trading skills;
1- No idea when to buy
2- No idea when to sell
3- Should ave down or not
4- Should cut loss or not

On psychology skills;
1- No patience
2- Cannot manage fear
3- Cannot manage greed
4- Cannot accept losses

Hope it helps !

Posted by 一只马 > 2018-02-20 19:46 | Report Abuse

Well said. Panda.

Just wanted to add some note over here to my dearest CKsam


Cksam: If share price movement is determined by calculating the PE and EPS then there will be no poor investors in Bursa. Who don't know 1 + 1 - 2 ? The problem is price discovery of share price is not that straight forward. There are a lot of factors determine the movement of share price namely earnings, growth prospect and so on.

Satu Horse : Siapa tak tahu u cakap apa o. How to win big and become rich investor depend on how many factors you can see in this particular industry. If you cannot see, then u loss money lo.
If you see dou jo, the congratz lo.

Cksam: The current share price of Masteel is a reflection of previous earnings. Hence the future price of Masteel will be determined by future earnings which we do not know.

Satu Horse :The current share price are reflecting a combination of past and future earnings, shareholder confidence and etc The share price doesn't move far above due uncertainty in financials going to be reported by Management as Financials can always be manipulated.

The rest. I lazy to write.

Posted by JN88 > 2018-02-20 21:10 | Report Abuse

No need to talk. I called Trump just now.......drop 1k point.

Posted by JN88 > 2018-02-20 21:10 | Report Abuse

Trump lazy to said....he trade Bitcoin now.....

Posted by cksam > 2018-02-20 21:11 | Report Abuse

Why am i saying stock price discovery is not the same as 1 + 1 = 2? If it is this simple then all analyst and Investment Banker will come to the same conclusion when calculating a stock's worth. Why every analyst and investment bankers come up with different numbers? Even though most of them use the popular Discounted Cash Flow model? What i can derive is that most investors depend on the 'Greater fool' model. In this model an investor hope to make money by selling to another fool who is willing to pay a higher price. Eventually what happens when the market runs out of greater fools?

Earnings reports don't move stocks. It's the expectations tat move stocks. Too many people miss this point. That is why many are confused why sometimes some stocks rise on bad earnings and fall on good earnings? This is because the market is a discounting mechanism. Thus the main thing that drives stock prices is anticipation. The anticipation of good results will bid stock prices up while bad results will cause stock prices to fall even before the reports are out. Thus the smart investors know that those stocks that are bid up before the report is out are most susceptible to fall when the report is out even if it is positive. In short it will always pay off to follow Wall Street's parlance 'Buy the rumor and sell the facts'

Posted by cksam > 2018-02-20 21:18 | Report Abuse

Anyway do anyone knows what is the SUCCESS rate of Stock Market TRADING/Investing?

i bet only a few actually knows the real success rate. Reports from brokerages and blogs often brag that Stock Trading is easy and success rate is more than 50% as some claimed. What i can say is that the actual success rate of trading is < 0.05% or less than 1 in 5000 will make money and able to make a decent living in StockTrading. What i am going to present to you below is an actual court case between SEC and TUCO trading in the U.S. Yup, actual P&L of a professional daytrading firm. You will be surprise by the statistics that are open to the public for scrutiny. See below:

Here is the link to the court case in the litigation of TUCO Trading

http://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/2008/lr20500.htm

And here is the link to the actual documents on all the daytraders in TUCO Trading

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/heres-real-verifiable-...


To summarise the statistics.


206 traders

33 were profitable (16% of total)
7 had accounts > $50k (3% of total)

173 unprofitable (84% of total)
57 had losses over $10k - (28% of total)

So depending on how you view it, either 85% were unsuccessful, or only 3% were able to generate returns that could've sustained themselves (meaning 97% were unsuccessful). You could argue quite successfully that these traders were disadvantaged by a business model that pushed them to drain their accounts with commissions.

Proprietary or Prop firms are the best sources of daytrader success statistics. A prop firm is basically a broker that will loan you capital so that you can daytrade with an account and the commisions is lower than normal brokerages. Thus it can be said that TUCO is populated by full time professional daytraders.

So if those professional daytraders only achieved a 3% survival rate in a prop firm what do you think the survival rate of rookie daytraders like many investors here?

So for those that have been bragging about how much they made daytrading/investing i would say keep the statistics to yourself. Even in a professional daytrading firm like TUCO more than 97% of their traders are UNSUCCESSFUL. I bet many of you haven't seen actual statistics like this one.

Share Market is a bottomless pit for most short, mid and long term investors. It is always the 99% investors that feed the 1%.

Posted by JN88 > 2018-02-20 21:40 | Report Abuse

Then be the 1% .

Posted by mjlee > 2018-02-20 21:58 | Report Abuse

both has its owned rights

Posted by cksam > 2018-02-20 22:00 | Report Abuse

Sorry here is the link. The previous one has been removed.


https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/27780-trader-survival-rate-actual-sample-tuco-trading.html

Posted by cksam > 2018-02-20 22:17 | Report Abuse

Anyway for those who worship Warren Buffet the following article details the dirty secret behind Warren Buffet's billions. If you think he made his billions from value investing. You will be surprise and most followers are taken for a ride.

https://www.thenation.com/article/special-investigation-the-dirty-secret-behind-warren-buffetts-billions/

Don't be a naive sucker !!

Posted by hstha > 2018-02-20 22:21 | Report Abuse

Nippon Steel worries about US trade action | http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/343933

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-20 23:16 | Report Abuse

@cksam, just make it short. so what u expect from masteel in next qtr and do you have it share and at what price you in?

since you hve many notes, pls share us your stock pick for 2018. your pick may useful to other since seems you are very good at knowledge reading

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-20 23:26 | Report Abuse

i see you hve commented in hibiscus/hy, maybe can share ur expectation on both too.

FYI, i dont hve hibiscus, but have masteel/dayang 500 lots each and HY 100 lots.

Posted by Jaydenstock > 2018-02-20 23:35 | Report Abuse

Collect now

Posted by arv18 > 2018-02-20 23:43 | Report Abuse

Just gone ex-bonus. time to sell.

Posted by cksam > 2018-02-20 23:48 | Report Abuse

For your information. I sold off all my Masteel share this morning. Good luck for those who still hold. I reckon at this moment many are waiting for the next QR and hope it will perform as SSteel. Fly after the QR report is out. That was in a different scenario. At that time the markets especially DOW was stable. I reckon we are in for another volatility drive. That's when risk of holding doesn't commensurate with return. It's like hoping to gain another RM 0.10 with the risk of losing RM 0.20.

Good luck to all Masteel investors. A bird in the bank is better than 2 in the bush. LOL

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-21 00:00 | Report Abuse

LoL to you. Im in construction sector and expose to rebar price every week. You definitely have no idea how rebar will perform this year and how masteel going to gain from it.

Just wait few days more and you see whom is smarter investor. Definitely not you.

See i am very confident right? Why? Becoz im belong to the 1% of your article stated.

Pls read again my own original created post on why beginner risk to losing.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-21 00:02 | Report Abuse

Pls go through again and evaluate which area you still lacking. It will help you to become better investor.

A. On selecting stock;
1- No idea on company biz/product and market
2- Dont have basic financial skill or FA
3- Dont learn TA
4- Dont keen to read qtr or annual rpt

B. On trading skills;
1- No idea when to buy
2- No idea when to sell
3- Should ave down or not
4- Should cut loss or not

C. On psychology skills;
1- No patience
2- Cannot manage fear
3- Cannot manage greed
4- Cannot accept losses

Posted by Yun Kai > 2018-02-21 00:10 | Report Abuse

Alright. Goodbye cksam.

1. Sales Price increase improved margin
2. Reinvestment allowance reduced cash out flow
3. Strengthening RM. (Bonus gain)
4. Robust demand and strategic location of factory
5. Penetrating Market by lowering price against competitor
6. PP increased cash position reduced loan burden. (but in fact the finance cost come from trade bills from creditors)
7. KEY SECRET with TP of RM1.95
8. KEY SECRET with TP of RM1.95

Posted by JN88 > 2018-02-21 00:11 | Report Abuse

I cross over KL area everyday. Construction and consumption of steel will be 3 fold as compared v the total KL last time.

Posted by madguy > 2018-02-21 01:12 | Report Abuse

so next qr report ..22nd feb ???

Posted by cksam > 2018-02-21 01:26 | Report Abuse

Hubris kills in share market. Anyway would like to take this opportunity to thank Masteel for letting me to profit handsomely from it's share.

Will enter again if opportunity present itself.

Posted by cresbinvest > 2018-02-21 07:33 | Report Abuse

cksam sold off masteel then only start to talk bad.. hoping can buy back at lower price.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-02-21 07:43 | Report Abuse

You spent so much time comment in hibiscus and sapnrg, suddenly appear in masteel on Feb 20 and claim sold off all and make handsome profit. Seems untrue.

The one whom made handsome profit is whoever bought masteel after china cut prod. Up from 1.0X to 1.6X before 1:5 bonus then to 1.53 before 1:3 bonus, next from 1.14 to current price 1.35. Thats call handsome profit.

Dont just do posting long notes from web, it doesnt make you better investor. Must dare and firm on why you buy after research but of course no guarantee for profit but at least minimise risk of losing.