Posted by kingcobra > 2014-06-24 15:00 | Report Abuse

CUT LOSS

Posted by sleepingtiger > 2014-07-16 18:03 | Report Abuse

Worth collecting at the BOTTOM now.

Downside risk limited

Upside reward unlimited.

Posted by 641003025255 > 2014-07-21 20:59 | Report Abuse

can buy now worth to grab before late

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-07-21 21:56 | Report Abuse

Natural gas keep dropping mean urea price is dropping too. Main component of glue manufacturing is urea and also mean that glue cost is dropping too. Rubber price is dropping and more rubber estates will chop down the old trees for replanting. Main cost of MDF board is rubber logs which is about one third of the production cost. Glue cost is about one quarter of the production cost. The rest is labour and utility cost. So I think the company may turn to profit second quarter and continue into next quarter.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-07-23 14:12 | Report Abuse

Dun too excited about Evergreen due to low price because over 30% sale from middle east & now, middle east is unrest with ISIS gets more aggressive in Iraq.

Posted by sleepingtiger > 2014-07-24 08:55 | Report Abuse

That has been discounted in the price.

Waiting for catalyst to move higher.

Posted by sleepingtiger > 2014-07-25 14:57 | Report Abuse

Momentum getting stronger.

Pray for increasing volume.

Posted by patiencebig > 2014-07-25 16:29 | Report Abuse

Pancing...

Posted by sleepingtiger > 2014-07-25 17:33 | Report Abuse

Starting its marathon run.

Posted by 641003025255 > 2014-07-25 18:21 | Report Abuse

Hold the batton strongly

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-07-25 22:30 | Report Abuse

Last two days bought in 500k share based on weekly chart indicated break up. Today confirmed and hope strong move next week.

Posted by sleepingtiger > 2014-07-26 12:28 | Report Abuse

Congratulation.

Big investors have been collecting slowly for the last few months and possibly last 3 years as the percentage of funds holding have been increasing.

Time is ripe for a rally till its next financial result in late August.

Posted by Alex Chan > 2014-07-29 22:06 | Report Abuse

Overbought

Posted by wikileaks > 2014-07-30 12:34 | Report Abuse

: )

Posted by sleepingtiger > 2014-07-31 07:23 | Report Abuse

A short consolidation and next burst will come follow.

Posted by yongyou > 2014-07-31 07:24 | Report Abuse

what is the TP?

Posted by NOBY > 2014-08-01 14:35 | Report Abuse

haha... strong man.... break 60 sen already
this baby is flying

Posted by VenenoRoaster > 2014-08-01 14:35 | Report Abuse

is moving....go go go

Posted by sleepingtiger > 2014-08-02 11:45 | Report Abuse

Industry rerating should be on the card soon.

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-08-03 21:50 | Report Abuse

Sleepingtiger, please more elaborate on your statement. Thank you.

Posted by sleepingtiger > 2014-08-04 14:39 | Report Abuse

So far only selected timber shares showed improved financial results.
Most smaller timber companies still have not reported convincing turnaround financial results.
If next financial results show such turnaround connotation then analysts will start covering this neglected industry and write more favorable recommendation.
Hence industry rerating to buy signal.

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-08-04 17:37 | Report Abuse

sleepingtiger, thank you.

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-08-07 06:20 | Report Abuse

At the moment, foudamental is not that importance and more people are go for technical analysis. Active volume is more preferred.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-07 12:07 | Report Abuse

FA & market outlook is very important other than TA. Evergreen is likely to hit RM0.80 in this year end. Why? MDF & particleboard's price has increased 4% & 6% in the 2nd half of 2013 & the trend is continuing to 2014. Earlier I said middle east crisis will affect Evergreen sales because over 35% sale from middle east countries. Here I reclaim back my earlier statement is inappropriate. Why? invasion of Iran and even spreading to Lebanon won't affect much because these 2 countries are less capital per income for each resident.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-07 12:11 | Report Abuse

Since Evergreen's inception to KLSE in 2005 till now, this counter never faces losses except in 2013. Even in times of 2008 financial crisis, this counter still makes profit. Take a look at MIECO counter's annual report which involves same industry as Evergreen, it states clearly that in the 2nd half of 2013, price of particleboard has been stabilized & price competition is lesser. Even in Evergreen's annual report & quarterly EPS result's report also stated clearly.

Posted by a0530610 > 2014-08-07 12:17 | Report Abuse

2Q14 results coming soon. Should turn around after recording losses for the last 6 quarters.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-07 12:30 | Report Abuse

Now this stock only trades at 0.38 times of price over book value & 0.34 times of price over sale. This valuation for a market leader in MDF & particleboard is unjustifiable. If you all check through shareholder's changes for Evergreen, you will find out that Lembaga Tabung Haji has increased its holding from merely 5% to over 7% in 2013. Costing for LTH is RM1 to RM0.59. Now our costing is only RM0.60 if we buy at the market price. Again, this stock is not for trading purpose, this stock needs to hold for medium term at least 6 months to see the price really appreciated till at least RM0.80. Good luck.

Posted by sleepingtiger > 2014-08-07 20:31 | Report Abuse

Most of the top 10 to 20 shareholders had gradually increased their shareholdings for the past 3 to 4 years.
LTH was just one of them.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-08 11:32 | Report Abuse

I believe coming quarterly EPS result marks the 1st +ve result achieved by Evergreen. I expect sales to over RM250 million and NPAT to be at least RM5 million or 1 cent of EPS.

Reason:
(1) MDF price & particleboard price has been stabilized in the 2nd half of 2013 with 4% & 6% up respectively and this trend is moderately continuing in 2014.
(2) Production cost is lower with cheap glue price & rubber wood. These 2 factors use up over 60% of total production cost
(3) No major capital expenditure
(4) Competitor, Vanachai group in Thailand, has been turnaround since 3rd quarter 2013 and the share price has been up 100% from its low point.
(5) Yes, middle east is unrest but middle east is always unstable as usual
(6) Yes, Russia now may declare war with Ukraine but Ukraine is a small country, not aimed by Evergreen. Moreover, Russia imposes ban on EU & US on foods item & likely in the near future, other trading products. This is a good news for Evergreen to capture more on this market.
(7) Vanachai group is heavily in debt but now share price is 1.2 times of price over book value and 0.8 times of price over sales volume. Evergreen now only sells its share price at less than 0.4 times of price over book value and price over sales volume. What a huge price difference, MARGIN OF SAFETY.
(8) MDF & particleboard are always linked to global economic growth. Look carefully, US has been in housing recovery since 2013. EU especially UK housing price now is up sharply. China, yes, in soft landing on economy but still growing over 6% QTQ. No major turnaround issue happening yet. Yes, Obama now decide to launch air strike to Iraq but this is just a small excuse for market to do a correction, not collapse. Ebola virus now affecting West Africa is just a small issue created by market to do correction. See clearly, people die on cancer, heart attack or stroke in Malaysia is over thousands, not hundreds as what happens in Ebola virus now.
(9) Japan has been having its 1st time inflationary pressure in 2014 as house price moves up slightly. Japan plans to push up the inflation more to encourage domestic consumption. That is why GST has been up to 8% effective 1st April 2014. That is why counter like Hevea focus on Japan has good run up.
(10) India is still the biggest wood import countries for most of M'sia wood counters due to huge population & still growing economy.

In summary, my TP RM0.80 in the year end is still intact unless there is a major global economic crisis happens again. Or else, I look forward my RM0.80 TP.

Cheers always...

Posted by 8u29song > 2014-08-08 11:36 | Report Abuse

TQVM on your comment !

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-08 11:51 | Report Abuse

For all Evergreen shareholder to know, Vanachai group is the largest MDF & particleboard producer in Thailand. MDF & particleboard accounts for 80% of its total sales. This company produces yearly estimated RM800 million to RM1 billion sales on wood engineered products, that is mostly MDF & particleboard. So I use Vanachai as a competitor analysis is comparable due to the same size of sales & majority of sales all come from MDF & particleboard.

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-08-09 06:14 | Report Abuse

It is not easy to get informations about Evergreen since the company stop issuing data about market pricing. Thank you very much.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-09 11:26 | Report Abuse

Norbord, Canada, one of the biggest wood engineered companies in the world with market capital over RM3 billion, has been run up its share price from Canada $10 in 2012 to Canada $35 in 2013, and retrace back to Canada $20.95 at 8/8/2014, still over 100% run up in its share price.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-09 11:32 | Report Abuse

There is a close substitution effect on MDF & particleboard to replace plywood with pricing cheaper than plywood about 30%+. Currently, plywood's price has been up 4.7% in 2014 (WTK's May 2014 quarterly report) compared to 2013 and this trend is unlikely to change (Subur's June 2014 quarterly report).

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-09 11:38 | Report Abuse

According to Credit Suisse's report in 2006 on Evergreen, for every 1% appreciation on USD against Ringgit, Evergreen will enjoy 3% to 4% increase in EPS. For every 1% increase in MDF's ASP, evergreen will enjoy 6% to 7% increase in EPS. Now Dollar has been appreciated with $1 USD equal to RM3.209 (8/8/2014 closing price) & MDF has been up over 4% in 2014, can you see coming sunshine on Evergreen's quarterly results & the uptrend is intact?

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-09 11:57 | Report Abuse

Pfleiderer Grajewo, Poland's largest wood engineered company with market cap at RM1.16 billion (8/8/2014), has seen its share price run up from 2012 PLN $10 to PLN $30 in 2013 before retraced back to PLN $23.19 (8/8/2014). Major market for Pfleiderer is in Poland.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-09 12:03 | Report Abuse

Anyone look through Evergreen's annual report from 2005 to 2013 will find out that Evergreen's customer base is over 500 clienteles. Evergreen will switch its customer base according to countries' demand instead of focusing on one market. So, if US and UK and other EU countries get better economically, or Japan to boost up construction activity to meet with coming Olympic Game in Japan in the year of 2020, Evergreen's marketing team will likely switch to this high demand market. So, again, if global economic growth is intact & no major economic crisis is happening, with current global MDF & particleboard capacity grows at less than 4% (from Timber International Board & other sources I studied), the MDF price & particleboard price are likely to move up, concurrently with plywood's price uptrend.

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-08-09 12:12 | Report Abuse

Yesterday, Vanachai group share( Thailand) increased by 8% or TB 0.45 from TB 5.60 to TB 6.05. The group 2 nd quarter result is due to announce and definately must be a good quarter. Last week, the share went up by more than 20%. Hopefully, next week is Evergreen turn to go up up.......

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-09 14:17 | Report Abuse

Yes, after the run up, now Vanachai's share price is sold at 0.9 times of price / sale and 1.3 times of price / book value. Very expensive. To all who do not know the IPO price of Evergreen in 2005, this counter moved into KLSE with IPO RM1.14. Since then, this stock never did any share split or right issue. In 2005, the book value is only RM0.66 but the share price hit RM2 in year 2007. Now the book value is RM1.56 and the share price is only RM0.58. Is it undervalued HUGELY?

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-09 14:18 | Report Abuse

In fact, my thorough analysis found out that almost all wood engineered counters like Vanachai, Pfeiderer Grajewo and Norbord all sold at 0.8 times of price / book value. So, Evergreen now sold at less than 0.4 times of price / book value. Is it undervalued HUGELY?

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-11 09:28 | Report Abuse

To investors, book value for wood engineered companies is important because this industry is heavy capital industry, meaning that to expand the production capacity, it costs MULTI millions to buy CNC machine, etc. So the barrier of entry to this industry is heavy capital investment. Add on is all the stocks for wood engineered companies are sellable and no need to scrap, unlike technological products that will be replaced if the technological requirements change. So book value of RM1.56 is REAL for evergreen. That is why wood engineered companies' valuation can be judged using price over book value. Here, if Evergreen really quoted like competitors Vanachai, then the stock should eventually sell at 0.8 x RM1.56 = RM1.25. With current price at RM0.595, is it undervalued HUGELY?

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-08-12 13:33 | Report Abuse

Evergreen Fibreboard
(EVFI MK)
Technical BUY with +13.4% potential return
Last price : RM0.60
Target Price : RM0.65, RM0.705
Support : RM0.57
Stop-loss: RM0.565
BUY with a target price of RM0.705 with stoploss
at below RM0.565. Following a long
consolidation in the form of “rounding bottom”
in the past 14 weeks, EVFI has broken out of
the pattern to register a new high of RM0.62
before making a “return move” to the
immediate support of RM0.57. As the share
price rebounded off the BBI line (Bullish-
Bearish-Indicator) after yesterday’s positive
closing, EVFI is ready to retest the previous
high and resume its uptrend. Moreover, the
rising momentum as flashed by an uptick in the
RSI should lift share price in the near term. We
peg our medium-term target based on X-to-X
price projection of the “rounding bottom”
pattern.
Expected Timeframe: 2 weeks to 2 months

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-13 09:55 | Report Abuse

Coming...

Posted by Bepatience > 2014-08-13 10:41 | Report Abuse

the stock had correction over the past 4 years , most people surrender already , very potiential and now timing is perfect ...

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-13 11:28 | Report Abuse

In 2009, there was an investment analyst's report did a thorough analysis for all Malaysia wood based counters inclusive of latitude, hevea, liihen, pohuat, subur, jtiasa, taann, wtk & eurosp. The findings said that among so many wood based counters, Evergreen was ranked:

(1) the top 2nd highest profit margin with 11%,
(2) top 1 in profits with RM80.2 million,
(3) top 5th sales with over RM700 million sales,
(4) top 1 in ROE with 13%,
(5) top 2 in ROA with 6.5%,
(6) top 5 in market cap with RM459.1 million,
(7) top 5th in lowest PE with 5.7.

With so many top positions, that is why LTH kept on increasing its evergreen share's stake till over 7% in 2013. Whoever not buy Evergreen, now the price is still reasonable, can buy, looking at LTH's costing is from RM0.60 to RM1.

Again, the share price now is less than RM0.65 and the book value is RM1.56. Do you think this counter is undervalued?

Note: buy at your own risk. Please do your own study on TA, FA & money management before you buy in. For trading purpose, do your own timing analysis. For investing purpose with holding power over 6 months, I do not see any risk buying below RM0.65. Good luck.

Posted by Bepatience > 2014-08-13 11:46 | Report Abuse

Don't ever against market , that is why Evergereen had bad performance over the past 4 years , this can be seen from the share price performance easily , but turning point had just starting , I would said holding up to 9 months - 1 year for better profit .

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-08-13 13:56 | Report Abuse

Vanachai group go up another 30 cents or 5% to TB 6.35.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-13 14:19 | Report Abuse

tonywong8, your wish come true. Evergreen share price is up...:)

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-08-13 14:50 | Report Abuse

StockLearner, my wish come true when the price can go up to 90 cents which is my cost of the share. Any way thank you.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-13 14:55 | Report Abuse

Sorry to hear about that. I thought that as an investor, we sometimes need to cut loss when the QTQ EPS starts to drop. But looking at the trend right now, I do believe the share price can move up to RM0.85 pretty soon.