Posted by NOBY > 2014-08-13 15:45 | Report Abuse

wow up 10%... yes, EVERGRN should be turning a corner soon. Judging from their impressive cashflow last year, plus the reduction in raw material costs, I m waiting for this to fly like HEVEA

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-08-14 12:15 | Report Abuse

Increasing Firming Bullish undertone augurs well for future CONTINUED UPTREND of EVERGRN stock price. I expect future performance to show IMPROVING AND LATER ON STELLAR FUNDAMENTALS that will propel the stock price UP!!I am long this stock.

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-08-19 15:06 | Report Abuse

Vanachai Group Public Co. Ltd. Announces Consolidated and Company Earnings Results for the Second Quarter and Six Months Ended June 30, 2014
Aug 14 14
Vanachai Group Public Co. Ltd. announced consolidated and company earnings results for the second quarter and six months ended June 30, 2014. For the quarter, on consolidated basis, the company reported net profit of THB 126,392,000 compared to net loss of THB 164,507,000 a year ago. EPS was THB 0.10 compared to LPS of THB 0.13 a year ago. The company and its subsidiaries have the total revenue from sales in amount of THB 2,588.2 million which is increasing from the year 2013 at equivalence of THB 651.5 million or approximately by 34%. These caused, the world economic is likely to be rebounded, which the sale total revenue of the company increasing from the year 2013. the net profit has increase THB 290.9 million or 177% for the main reasons: the total sales has increased THB 651.5 million, due to sales volume of Particleboards has increased by 59%. The average price of MDF Board has increased by 10%. Net cash flow used operating activities is THB 41.4 million, increase by THB 689.7 million from the previous year because of increase in trade and other receivable by THB 659.3 million, revenue department receivable by THB 73.5 million, increase in the inventories by THB 649.4 million, increase trade and other payable by THB 298.5 million and decrease advance received from customers by THB 110.9 million. For the six months, on consolidated basis, the company reported net profit of THB 194,403,000 compared to net loss of THB 281,849,000 a year ago. EPS was THB 0.15 compared to LPS of THB 0.22 a year ago

Posted by MZRTrade > 2014-08-19 17:51 | Report Abuse

Thanks Evergreen.. Good Bye..Good Luck

Posted by wongchowsang > 2014-08-19 22:38 | Report Abuse

why good bye?

Posted by MZRTrade > 2014-08-20 05:59 | Report Abuse

bought 0.52 , sold 0.66, just taking profit... but this still co. still have a lot of potential....

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-08-20 07:53 | Report Abuse

Bought 300k at 0.65 during yesterday last 10 minutes sell down.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-20 13:06 | Report Abuse

So low transaction volume & price drop? tonywong8, seem like top up with 300k at 0.65 not the right price...

Posted by sleepingtiger > 2014-08-20 13:33 | Report Abuse

Nice to take profit for short term gain.

Long term investor will keep for more gains.

Better to buy on weakness rather than jumped in when it was too hot.

I am a long term investor bought during the consolidation period between May to July 2014.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-20 17:12 | Report Abuse

A rally stock seldom drops below MA5 line to have a bullish uptrend. Usually market maker will support firmly if the likely quarterly report is good. So, hopefully the coming quarterly report is positive & hopefully today's market reaction is just a show created by market maker to wash away short-term player.

Posted by wongchowsang > 2014-08-23 17:39 | Report Abuse

stupid counter, no hope already

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-23 23:56 | Report Abuse

I bought at 65 cents & pushed myself to cut loss at 61.5 cents. Only left a little share. Now MACD turn bearish with fast line cut down slow line. Seem like 58 cent is the next support after 60 cents breakdown.

Last time in May 2014, when the report came out not good, the market maker threw down the share price earlier before report came out. Now is history repeating again? Too bad.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-08-24 00:12 | Report Abuse

A more positive stock would be kpscb. See www.kpscb.com

Posted by saltedfish > 2014-08-24 00:13 | Report Abuse

Big losses suffered on the acquisitions over the last few years

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-25 16:44 | Report Abuse

Cut loss at RM0.60. Although Mieco report good result, but I am quite sceptical about Evergreen's turnaround. Why? About 40% of Evergreen's sale come from middle east & in the last 2 quarters, it said that middle east is getting stable & outlook better. But since June 2014 onwards, there are too many events happened in middle east. I checked through Mieco sales report. Mieco used to enjoy RM7 million+ sales in middle east but also dropped about 12% in the latest quarterly report.

In the last 6 years' annual report, Evergreen has been steadily growing its business because its main focus is middle east. That is why middle east sales has increased steadily from 10%+ to 40% of total sale. So the coming report should be OK OK only. Future outlook is not really bright yet.

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-08-25 22:09 | Report Abuse

Vanachai went up by 17% or TB 1.25. Last two weeks, the share has moved up 80%. Hope it will spread to Evergreen, same business nature. Sellers subsided. May rebound tomorrow.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-26 09:32 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1605385

Evergreen is facing a legal suit under its subsidiary EHR and the claim amount can be over RM40,000,000. Seem like uncertain.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-26 09:48 | Report Abuse

If there is a legal settlement paid by evergreen to Naza industries sdn bhd & this payment is in the coming quarterly report, the share price can easily drop to RM0.56 or RM0.52 because the one-time off losses of RM40,000,000 or discount 50% RM20,000,000 is over 5 cents to 10 cents.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-26 11:54 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1714021

As I attached file above, upon receiving the court case at 25th April 2014 per attached above, evergreen's share price dropped 4 cents from 56 cents to 52 cents. So the latest claim development said that Evergreen must reply latest by 25th August 2014. This statement is issued at 19th August 2014. At 20th August 2014 onwards till now, the share price is in downtrend. Obviously, market maker starts to throw away their shareholding. Usually when a price drops and in the uptrend mode, volume should not be so high everyday except market maker does it.

Tonywong8, I believe evergreen is in the recovery stage but if this claim really happens & cost over RM40,000,000, the share price will likely drop to RM0.56 or worse still, RM0.52. Be careful the trap of market maker. Technically, MACD crossover happens. I do not dare to bet & cut loss.

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-08-27 00:22 | Report Abuse

StockLearner, from Hevea, Vanachai and Mieco quarterly report, I believed that particle board and Mdf board industry are in recovery stage. Evergreen turnover and profit will definitely improving. The share price was falling from Rm 1.60 to the lowest of Rm0.45 and now rebound back to only Rm0.62. I think that the price may go to Rm0.87 which is also my target price.
I believed that Evergreen has a good management team but not in a good industry. The legal settlement with Naza, according to management was baseless and misleading, I trust them will do a good job. Let wait for the quarterly result before next move to be analised.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-08-27 00:30 | Report Abuse

EVERGRN share price had already BOTTOMED OUT and is slowly resuming its UPTREND. Let's see what the upcoming quarterly results will be and how the future quarters performance will turn out.

The noticeable fact is EVERGRN had managed to generate good operational cash flows based on past performance. The not so good fundamentals are being sorted out by the management. Only time will tell whether the fundamentals will continue to improve further.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-27 15:38 | Report Abuse

To all evergreen investor. Allow me to say sorry for oversaying the bad consequence of legal suit's claim. I personally called up to Evergreen officer & the person-in-charge said Evergreen's appointed lawyer has good grounds to win from the legal suit's claim. She told me in details that was not published legally on Bursa & not nice to say over here due to information leaking clause later on fined by the nice person in charge.

Moreover, Evergreen not only defend themselves, they counterclaim back to the plaintiff, Naza Industries Sdn Bhd.

Now the legal suit's claim is not my concern at least temporarily. Now let us look back to the fundamental of Evergreen. Yes, I buy back some at RM0.65 & RM0.66 & I decide to choose to hold on this stock as early recovery is on...

Cheers...

Posted by tonywong8 > 2014-08-27 21:36 | Report Abuse

Bought another 200k yesterday in expect of good 2nd quarterly result. StockLearner, thank for the information about the legal suit's claim.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-08-28 00:27 | Report Abuse

The stock price movement is signaling that the forthcoming quarterly results will be better than the previous quarter. Let see whether Mr Market uncanny view is spot on!!

Posted by Gin Hong Khor > 2014-08-28 10:00 | Report Abuse

Why .?

Posted by Alex Chan > 2014-08-28 17:53 | Report Abuse

forming head and shoulders....RUN

Posted by MG9231 > 2014-08-28 18:44 | Report Abuse

What chart r you interpreted, long term lowest price is about $0.50, now is $0.625,
If it goes back to its lowest point, the most you lost$0.125 sen per share, if otherwise, you may make a lot.therefore, probably make more than losing. This venture worth our bet.

Posted by thinkkfully > 2014-08-28 19:02 | Report Abuse

Not really a shs formed.... More like contra players run off...

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-28 19:07 | Report Abuse

Regardless of how short-term market looks like, hold this stock for 1 year. I am sure RM0.87 is achievable. Why? Particleboard & MDF price has been moved up globally 10% from the low point.

From Hevea's report & Mieco, both counters encounter high profit margin in the latest Q2 report 2014. Hevea's profit margin for particleboard is 9.47% in the latest quarter, up from 5.52%. Mieco turnarounds from loss making to make 1.44 cents in Q2 2014.

In international market, Vanachai from Thailand enjoys 34% sales growth in particleboard in Q2 2014. FYI, Vanachai share price has been moved up from 2.56 low in November 2013 to 8.7 in today's closing price.To those who do not know Vanachai group, this stock is the largest MDF & particleboard manufacturer in Thailand. Over 80% sales of Vanachai group comes from MDF & particleboard. This stock is exactly Evergreen's competitor.

Imagine today you spend RM500,000 to buy a condominium from developer & this condominium is in construction progress. After bought the house, within 1 week, you tell to the developer I want to sell the house without OC obtained. How can a person change his/her mind so fast in buying property? Answer is usually NO.

Yes, in share market, trader trades thousands of money & without a trading plan, can change so fast.

Alex Chan, thx for your advice. If the share price drops below RM0.615, yes, you are right, temporarily, this stock has to take a break before next movement. I decide to hold this stock for at least 1 year looking at the trend of particleboard & MDF price is in uptrend.

Again, I explain here not asking anybody to buy Evergreen fibreboard. I personally bought back some at RM0.65 & RM0.66. I decide to hold this stock & keep in safety box for 1 year to see my prediction is right or not.

Cheers...

Posted by thinkkfully > 2014-08-28 19:44 | Report Abuse

Agree... If scared, daily closing 61 or below, can temporary cutloss dy....today 62.5sen, with nit much volumes... No need so worry

Posted by MG9231 > 2014-08-28 23:41 | Report Abuse

Invest in share is a probability / chances game. All furniture counters mostly report good results for last few quarters, I don't thinks evergreen which form the raw material of furniture will have lousy result forever. If you have holding power, try to ignore short term fluctuation n focus on medium n long term , I believe this counter provide safe n making a lot of money.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-29 09:28 | Report Abuse

Yes, MG9231. I agree with you. Short-term share market is a voting machine. Long-term share market is a weighting machine. I choose to hold it for 1 year.



If the result out is very bad, assuming currency exchange got huge losses like what happened earlier in 2013, causing a quarterly loss RM7,000,000, I still choose to hold because currency is one-time-off event.

In the coming result, based on earlier report, Evergreen will likely say that middle east market is unrest again & this may affect sale in that region. But I am not that concern because as I told earlier, the unrest country is Iraq, Bahrain, Palestinian & Syria. All these countries are low income per capita. Middle east rich countries are still OK like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc. Moreover, there is a mutual agreement signed between Palestinian & Israel for peace yesterday.

Even now the result out very good & price shoot up to RM0.87 in a very short time, I am not going to sell, because I believe this stock worth more than that. NTA is RM1.57. Still got big room to boost up the share price.

Cheers...

Posted by Alex Chan > 2014-08-29 17:34 | Report Abuse

charts never lie. Bigger losses.

Gap down

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-08-29 19:49 | Report Abuse

Strong support at 56 cents to 58 cents. Again, as I said earlier, this time's huge losses is due to

(1) Malaysia's production major upgrade (do not forget after automation, profit margin Shoot up)
(2) Thailand's major production maintenance causing MDF sales dropped (again, this is one-time-off event)
(3) Huge loss on log concession causing Malaysia's operation having over RM18 million losses (again, this is one-time-off event)

Good news is I see the comment from Evergreen's latest prospect saying:
(1) Gradual global increase on MDF demand
(2) MDF price also increases as we all know already
(3) Upgrade on automation of manufacturing processes
(4) others

Lastly, management said it is optimistic in the near future achieve better result. I choose to hold.

I check through some manufacturing counters. Earlier before skpres has a good run up, in fact, it reports very bad quarterly result & so the price shoot down a lot. Even MPI also has the same problem with poor result. But when good result comes out, the price will shoot up a lot.

For short-term player, u better out on Tuesday. For long-term player like myself, I choose to hold for at least 1 year. Let me see my prediction is right or not. After all, I see from KLSE report that over the last 3 years, more than 70% major shareholders never do any changes on selling their stocks, inclusive of LTH.

Cheers...

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-08-30 01:22 | Report Abuse

I expect this stock to produce its earnings magic starting Q3 2014 onward. I had already taken position in this stock. I am confident that the investment in automation of production machinery will produce the earnings magic from Q3 2014 onward. This stock is a good buy now and I will hold this stock as I am confident that the management will produce earnings magic which will likely result in substantial capital appreciation of my invested capital. Dividend payout may also be quite attractive with the earnings magic performance. Despite its lackluster past performance this stock had generated good positive operational cash flow.

Posted by thinkkfully > 2014-08-30 13:02 | Report Abuse

1st, Gap down push up, it is a uturn signal from candlestick... 2nd, market likes yday, this stock no impacts much.... 3rd, q2 result out with loss profit yday, somehow the shares still push bck?? If big investors runaway, shares shld drop n with big volumes..... Somehow, it didnt happen yday... 3 gd thing i c, n i really don see any bad in the chart, if gap dn n push dn without recovery, then it is bad, but yday push up bck, wer is the bad chart? Hmmmm.....

Only 1 little bad thing is, the volumes still consider low.....

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-09-02 08:41 | Report Abuse

For those who still hold Evergreen & not sure to hold or to sell, allow me to say some good news for you & after that, you decide to sell or hold. The following 6 statements are exactly what future prospects said by Evergreen's management. After you read through the 6 statements, you decide to hold or to sell.

Q1 2013 Commentary of Prospect: The world economy continues to face challenges on uncertainty derived from on-going Euro debt crisis and most countries' monetary easing policy. The fluctuation in USD and uncertainty of the Global growth has direct impact on growth of worldwide MDF demand. Despite, the intensive regional competition caused by additional regional production capacity of MDF from Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, the Group will continue to reduce cost of production with a tight cost control through-out the Group. The Group aims to overcome the impending challenges to achieve a satisfactory performance in the next quarter.

Q2 2013 Commentary of Prospect: The confidence on US economy has stepped up. However fears on the impact of slowing growth and liquidity Crunch in China; worsening current accounts and rising of private debt/GDP ratios in emerging market, dampened the sign of a synchronized global economic recovery. The global growth remains the major factor that is affecting worldwide MDF demand. However, the strengthening of USD should bring favourable result to the Group. Despite, the intense competition caused by additional regional MDF production capacity from Thailand, Vietnam & Indonesia, the Group will continue to have tight cost control through-out the Group.

Q3 2013 Commentary of Prospect: The forthcoming quarter remains very challenging for the Group. The increased capacity from regional competitors of the newly setup MDF production lines in Indonesia, Vietnam & Thailand and coupled with global economic uncertainty and the civil unrest in the Middle East countries have seriously impacted the pricing and demand of MDF products

Q4 2013 Commentary of Prospect: Global economic growth is expected to be moderate in 2014 and with improvements of civil unrest in middle east that will contribute a gradual increase in the global MDF demand. Besides focusing on marketing strategy on added value products the Group will continue to pursue its effort on productivity, efficiency and cost control measures.

Q1 2014 Commentary of Prospect: Along with the improved global economic growth & stabilization of civil unrest in the middle east, the global MDF demand is expected to be gradually improved. Besides focusing on marketing strategy on added value products the Group will continue to pursue its effort on productivity, efficiency and cost control measures.

Q2 2014 Commentary of Prospect: Based on gradually improved global MDF demand and slow rise mode of pricing demand and slow rise mode of pricing coupled with the Group's continuous efforts on cost control measures, maximising productivity, equipment enhancements and automation on manufacturing processes, the Board is optimistic in achieving improve results in teh near future

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-09-02 09:15 | Report Abuse

To those still hold the share & uncertain to cut loss or not, let me reassure you that if you have holding power, do not sell.

Why I said so?

Evergreen's sale is particleboard & MDF board. What is the difference between particleboard & MDF board? You can google to check more details. Over here, I just said MDF board is a much better board with price higher than particleboard.

So, Evergreen's sale is the combination of 25% sale from particleboard & 75% sale from MDF board. Now as you all know, sale from particleboard is very demanding, that is why Mieco & hevea has stronger positive result.

How about 75% sale for MDF board? Well, In Malaysia, we do not have big MDF producer. So to make a comparable situation, let us look at Vanachai. Over 50% sale of Vanachai is from MDF board. In the QTQ report from Vanachai, it stated clearly that MDF price has increased since Q3 2013. In fact, concurrently, Evergreen's report in Q3 2013 also stated more positive comment. In the Q2 2014, Vanachai achieved incredible 34% sale growth with 59% from particleboard & 10% growth from MDF board due to average selling price of MDF is up 10%.

What does this all mean? It means that global economy is growing & this is good for particleboard & MDF board. IMF also forecasted economic growth worldwide is about 3% in 2014.

Now, to me, Evergreen is a good buy timing instead of sell timing, but too bad, I have no extra bullet to load more Evergreen's stock as I bought at 65 cents to 66 cents. For those of you still have the share, my suggestion to you all is HOLD. For those of you still have bullet, now is the time to average down your costing.

Cheers... Hope this detailed explanation give you confidence to hold this stock...

Posted by thinkkfully > 2014-09-02 09:27 | Report Abuse

a real gap down like this, which is a real problem~

Posted by NOBY > 2014-09-02 09:29 | Report Abuse

Why such huge losses this q for Malaysian operations ? They said the problem was log concessions that was signed last year at higher price, it seems they do not benefit from lower log cost, how much of their raw materials costs are actually hedged ?

Posted by NOBY > 2014-09-02 09:32 | Report Abuse

On the positive note, their cashflow for this year was still positive, there is free cashflow and they manage to reduce their debts. This tells me that eventually there is light at the end of the tunnel but for how long I do not know...

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-09-02 09:36 | Report Abuse

When everybody is afraid & sceptical about the result, fear creep in & most people throw away their shareholding, that is the most despair moment. A contrarian said this is the best time for me to go in... too bad, no bullet...

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-09-02 09:44 | Report Abuse

Why selling is huge? Because technically when it breaks below 60 cents, those buyers like me (I choose to hold) whom bought at RM0.60 to RM0.67 will sell their shareholding. When it breaks below 56 cents, those buyers buying from 56 cents to 60 cents SELL. That is why selling is huge.

I respect the market maker although I pay huge paper charity to them because they really know how to manipulate share market with people's fear & greed. I salute them. Anyhow, I believe in the coming 1 year, global economic growth is still sustainable. I choose to hold my share in Evergreen.

Cheers...

Posted by wongchowsang > 2014-09-02 09:46 | Report Abuse

cry........i bought 0.66,now finish liao

Posted by wongchowsang > 2014-09-02 09:47 | Report Abuse

very disappointed with this counter....all my money gone

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-09-02 09:59 | Report Abuse

A good news to share with you all who choose to hold on Evergreen's stock like me.

Globally, those companies doing MDF board usually total debts are much higher than current asset. A quick check with Vanachai, Norbord, etc will give you a better view on what I said. Remember, it takes a long time to reduce debts. Therefore, if you look through Evergreen's financial statement, you will realize that the total debt is just slightly over Evergreen's current asset which means that although this company faces huge losses on log concession, its financial statement is still alright.

Moreover, it takes very long time to build up a company's NTA. Evergreen is listed on KLSE since 2005 with NTA 70 cents+ with IPO price RM1.04. It takes 9 years to increase its NTA from NTA 70 cents+ to NTA RM1.52 now.

So, market maker just needs to wait a good quarterly report to push up the share price & then people will chase after it. With NTA RM1.52 & still low debt although incur huge losses, I choose to hold...

Posted by thinkkfully > 2014-09-02 10:05 | Report Abuse

sorry, I choose cutloss.... pain, but hav to.... cos it is much below my cutloss point.... might come bck again when evergrn got more gd things come~

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-09-02 10:11 | Report Abuse

wongchowsang, be patience. Investing is not like buying a toy. It is like buying a house. We do not expect to sell off our house after 1 or 2 months, right? Why this quarterly report is so huge losses? Well, let me give you some confidence on that.

Evergreen has faced raw material's high price during 2010 & 2011. So to avoid this, this company moves up vertically, meaning that its management does its best to secure the raw material partly itself. In fact, it also has its own adhesive production that needs to do as raw material for MDF & particleboard.

So, in 2012 & 2013, if you check the timber industry, the timber is sold at good price and as a result, incur losses. But this is just one-time-off event, be calm. As long as you do not sell & the future prospect of Evergreen is still intact, you can get back what you lose right now.

Posted by StockLearner > 2014-09-02 10:22 | Report Abuse

To those Evergreen shareholder still sceptical & uncertain to sell or buy, let me give you more confident to hold...

When a share is near its strong support line, do you want to buy or sell? A rational answer should be to BUY, right? Now Evergreen is near its strongest support line at RM0.50 to RM0.52, why you have worry to sell?

Next, if you look through the chart, you will realize that for a market maker to make huge lumpsum money, market maker at least has to push up the share price 50% after this stock has been consolidated since December 2012 with price ranged from RM0.45 to RM0.68. Why? Even market maker holds the share, the money that in stocks still has opportunity cost & borrowing cost. Do you think that with RM0.52 to RM0.66 or 20% gain, market maker is satisfied & sell off all its holding? Answer is obviously NOT.

In short, do you have confident that this counter's future prospect is as bright as what management said in the commentary of prospect as I posted earlier? I believe so after checking with other counters like Hevea, Mieco, Vanachai, Norbord, global economic growth's forecast from IMF, etc.

Best buy NOW...

Posted by LuckyStorm > 2014-09-02 10:29 | Report Abuse

strong support line at 54.5sen.After 4years observation. I just bought a lots. Thanks for your info makes me more confidence...