If recession coming, the first counters which will get hit first are the financial counters. In addition, in Malaysia context, the properties will get it too. Commodities such as Palm Oil may not be impacted that hard as ppl still need to eat and purchase basic necessities.
Personally I think oil palm price will move in tandem with soybean price. Latest soya up nearly 3 % on last trading. If can stay 2000 , it is consider ok if you properly take care ur farm. If price too low, people will cut cost by reducing fertilizer which eventually lower the yield. Projected Monday price will up. Low season now till at least April but unfortunately cool country buy less during cool weather.
You also can say that crude oil is not over supplied even though the price decrease was partly due increase supply of shale oil. It is due to low demand of crude oil. Everything is cause by low demand from consumers. The world economy might have to keep the words ' over supply ' in the fridge. Kikiki
No movement even CPO price recovered for the past two weeks due to flood in Malaysia and higher USD exchange rate which is good for exporting industries.
Understand from oil palm mill that all small holder who sell friuit to agent/factory are subject to gst which is 6% from April onward. Agent/factory will deduct the gross amount. This will double hit the small holder as their selling amount take back will be less. The fertilizer n chemical for grass poisoning price will go higher it's purchase price is subject to gst tax. Can anyone share n give opinion or conformation to this matter. Thanks.
Kian Leong Lim, historical wise, Sarawak Plantation declared dividend around February and payout in March. As for business wise, plantation counter such as this would depends on 3 main factors:
1. Harvest Yield which results in FFB 2. CPO market price 3. Oil Extraction rate
FFB could be decreasing due to Feb/March 2014 dry seasons (We had water rationing during those months if you still can recall), Dec/Jan flooding of East Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah & Sarawak. Experts are saying that it takes 6-18 months for lag impact on production. Hence if you take this calculation in place, it should be reflected in Q1 2015.
CPO market price depending on several factors such as demand/supply, other vegetable oil price especially soy bean oil, and recently linking to Crude Petroleum price. The lowering of Crude Petroleum Oil isn't good for CPO price as it affects the viability of Biodiesel initiatives in Indonesia and Malaysia. That's how we see the trending down of CPO in tandem with lower price of Crude Petroleum.
It seems in Feb 2015, Crude Petroleum was said to have found its bottom although some are saying that we might be seeing USD40 per barrel if the situation in Ukraine still not improving. Anyway, as the price shows, it is back to hovering around USD50 per barrel. With stabilization of Crude Petroleum price, potentially lower FFB yield, Indonesia new subsidy on Biodiesel (increased subsidy scheme), CPO price may be stabilized in 2015 and maybe on slight uptrend.
On supply/demand front, no doubt economics in China and India are not growing as aggressively as before but they are still growing. Imports of CPO have been trending down for the past 3 months as reported. However this could due to earlier stock up on CPO due to lower price back in August - October period. Who doesn't want to stock up on cheap oil, right?
Back in somewhere in June/July 2014, I have highlighted to Uncle Koon on the impact of China tightening the commodities credit. Few weeks after that, CPO price starts to trend down whereby Crude Petroleum price too start to fall. The latest update from China, they are easing the tightening in order to boost growth. That should be good news for all commodities that China rely heavily upon.
I have no opinion on extraction rate as I don't see any trend in improving the extraction rate year after year amid nominal improvement. This would rely on their efficiency and technology applies. There seem to be some idea in improving the logistic side and getting the FFB quicker to the extraction plants. Quality of the FFB from the matured trees also play a part.
With this observation, I believe that CPO price would be stabilized and with Sarawak Plantation consistent dividend policy, it is a better place to park my cash with this counter than in FD. If you are looking at a high capital gain, this may not be the right counter unless CPO price shot up drastically which I don't foresee so.
Hi AdCool, please correct me if I understand this incorrectly: Current share price: RM2+ per share. Dividend history: about 5c per share historically. Return: about 2.5c to RM1? Since we need RM2+ to invest in one share. Hence, 2.5% return p.a.? Appears lower than FD though..
Hi like to join in yr discussion. Just bought @RM2.18 yesterday becos it met my selection. Since the discussion is on FD - the competitive Bank FD rate for 2015 is 4% per RM1 invested. If you buy SPlnt @RM2.17 it has to generate a dividend of 8.68 sen. If you think it can do better and plus the potential capital gain , just buy.
Bank FD of 4% is only a promotional rate. You can't forever get that kind of rate. Now I think only few banks offer such rate and one of it is OCBC. Bear in mind that FD does not give capital appreciation and and shares dividend or bonus. :) Well in contrast, FD can secure your capital though since there is no fluctuation of share price.
If Bursa qtr4 reporting requirement for Sarawak Plnt is the last week of Feb 2015, they can choose to do it at the last trading day of the last week of Feb. 2015. Latest Feb 27.
Kian Leong Lim hi According to the Company Profile (based on the Annual Rept) Company started in 1997 and public company in 2000. Went Public listing in Aug 2007 and the IPO price was RM3.00 per share. Counting the years it is still a very young company. Agreed, the Shares are tightly held and the Mgmt maybe a little conservative but we cannot deny it is a well-managed and paying regular dividend Company. Let’s visit FGV, a well-diversified/ all downstream line of products Company and Sime Darby, a Malaysia-based diversified multinational involved in key growth sectors, they are not “Super Stars” in Bursa Malaysia.
As for me, it is still too early to write it (S/Plnt) off.
Kian Leong Lim, I agree with yr thought. u shld attend the AGM (unfortunately in Kuching) to share the general feelings of the shareholders , their responsibility as Directors is more than just paying a regular dividend to the shareholders. SWKPlnt has lot of local influence and they shld act on this opportunity. Can see there is potential and perhaps I may hold on for a few qtr reportings before I make the next move.
Cocoaland started off in Dec 2004 @RM0.65 a piece. Pay regular dividend and rewarded the shareholders with 1:3 bonus. Today TP is around RM1.80-RM1.90. Fair comparison.
Does they own any land suitable for property development%3F This is the change I can think of for Swk Plantation if they want to improve their profit. If not sell some land to others who is keen to venture into property.
rich Hi is what I see in yr comment (below). Something wrong with the msg
Does they own any land suitable for property development%3F This is the change I can think of for Swk Plantation if they want to improve their profit. If not sell some land to others who is keen to venture into property. 27/02/2015 13:24
rich yr msg was truncated and not readable earlier. Now back to normal. Core biz still very much oil palm operations. We cannot discount the possibility of change and with state influence that made it much easier.
I am wondering if the electricity tariff reduction in Sarawak would be good for plantation companies? The downstream companies which deal with refining should be positively impacted.
Read latest annual report stating Koon Yew Yin among top 30 shareholders. Company propose share buy back. Wonder will they carry out when price is low like now.
El Nino may be materialized and drive the growth of CPO price. It's time to accumulate more plantation shares especially for those which have been beaten down.
Sarawak mostly will fall back to BN. U guys forget the recent delineation exercise? They are creating more state seats in preparation for the state election.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
XXXvalue
459 posts
Posted by XXXvalue > 2014-10-16 17:06 | Report Abuse
I love this market...