Posted by Kevin Gibb > 2013-12-05 19:48 | Report Abuse

trading chart shows a beginning of uptrend. hopes it continue

Posted by kksk123 > 2013-12-06 10:06 | Report Abuse

3.5mil/169mil=2.07%..

Posted by faberlicious > 2013-12-06 10:08 | Report Abuse

Thank you Kevin Gibb.

Posted by pputeh > 2013-12-06 14:43 | Report Abuse

Thank you Kevin Gibb for yr informative article. As for me the picture is clearer now. Its hard to get people like Kevin who has the patience and wisdom to impart his knowledge in the blog for free. Once again a BIG thank you and God Bless. A Merry and Happy Christmas to you and Family.

Posted by Kevin Gibb > 2013-12-07 09:33 | Report Abuse

welcome pputeh. I just share the facts of this exciting counter for the interest of all investors. Wish you & family have a Joyful Christmas & Blessed New Year.

Posted by aubergine6958 > 2013-12-10 21:04 | Report Abuse

The problem is two of the funds manager are still dumping the shares.

Posted by Investor > 2013-12-11 22:20 | Report Abuse

y d price still cannot maintain above rm16++

Posted by pputeh > 2013-12-12 19:51 | Report Abuse

This share is like LPI & is for loooooooong term holders. Don't look at price everyday.

Posted by CallASpadeASpade > 2013-12-14 12:47 | Report Abuse

I see, this counter will fly rocket within next 2 weeks.

Posted by faberlicious > 2013-12-14 13:44 | Report Abuse

Not dumping,fund managers need to re adjust their portfolio every year.They sell some stocks and use it to pay dividends to shareholders,prchase other stocks.Anyway they long term major shareholders of AeonCr so no worries.

Posted by faberlicious > 2013-12-14 13:46 | Report Abuse

oops,prchase other stocks should be "purchase other stocks"

Posted by CallASpadeASpade > 2013-12-16 08:26 | Report Abuse

no worry, the sell off by fund manager was not dumping but was a part of their portfolio management. Confirmed by Aberdeen after few calls. they did it every here and there.They then bought back when necessary. check the record in bursa website. crystal clear record info, this is a solid rock counter.

Posted by pputeh > 2013-12-19 19:06 | Report Abuse

Quarterly results out today. Did better than last Q. After 3 Quarters 2013 has earned 88sen compared to 2012 earning 66 sen. Doing well. No worries. See if they reward shareholders with BONUS issue as last year

Posted by prospertogether > 2013-12-20 08:42 | Report Abuse

yahoo, AeonCr no doubt is my favorite counter.. Looking forward for Christmas & Year End special bonus from Aeoncr...

Posted by Jerry > 2013-12-21 19:58 | Report Abuse

finance counter will have less chance to fly compared to other counter

Posted by faberlicious > 2013-12-21 21:11 | Report Abuse

AeonCr has risen 19.94% this past 1 year.Last 5 years has risen a whopping 586% !.


1 week 1 month 6 months 1 year 5 years
Aeon Credit Service -1.56 % -2.19 % -8.67 % +19.94 % +586.49 %
FTSE KLCI IDX -0.13 % +2.19 % +4.68 % +10.02 +109.73%

Posted by pputeh > 2013-12-22 20:28 | Report Abuse

Thanks faberlicious. You real took so much pains to do the Maths. Thanks again. Happy Mew year and more luck in 2014

Posted by faberlicious > 2013-12-23 07:18 | Report Abuse

Posted by pputeh > Dec 22, 2013 08:28 PM | Report Abuse

Thanks faberlicious. You real took so much pains to do the Maths. Thanks again. Happy Mew year and more luck in 2014.

pputeh,u r most welcome.

Posted by wongkok > 2013-12-23 12:49 | Report Abuse

The current price weakness is due to concern over asset quality which I believe should not deteriorate further because its has been fully provided in the 3rd quarter results.

AT PE 13. AEONCR is certainly a BUY

Posted by khlaw > 2013-12-24 17:09 | Report Abuse

lower and lower.. no Christmas bonus...

Posted by kevingibb > 2013-12-27 14:35 | Report Abuse

Lower means providing us a better price to enter.

Posted by kevingibb > 2013-12-27 14:45 | Report Abuse

This analyst guy in the newspaper last week Friday, as so called "stock analyst" is a joker. A real joker. He has recommended AEONCR at RM18.00 and tried to find way to protect his "reputation / professional analysis" when AEONCR share price failed to perform for the past few months ( note : due to the issue of capital adequacy ratio ). His report last week highlighted that the deterioration of AEONCR loan quality with NPL drops from 1.6% to 2.02%. However, 2.02% is still an excellent figure by any standard. On the other hand, this stock analyst company praised CIMB with NPL of 4.5%. This is ridiculous. I hope all investors are well informed about this.

Posted by kevingibb > 2013-12-27 14:49 | Report Abuse

the fundamental of AEONCR will speak to the world. AEONCR fundamental is the horse, that analyst is the jockey. The horse is the one that run, jockey only bullshit.

Posted by lsv1977final > 2013-12-28 00:21 | Report Abuse

Aeoncr is a excellent share. Drop means opportunity for us. Pick up as much as possible, before too late.

Posted by i3investor700 > 2013-12-31 10:52 | Report Abuse

Div. paid. 6 months low

Posted by CallASpadeASpade > 2013-12-31 15:22 | Report Abuse

best time to accumulate..

Posted by lsv1977final > 2014-01-02 16:31 | Report Abuse

Down sharply today...

Posted by eftee > 2014-01-02 16:37 | Report Abuse

collect collect collect. Can go lower anymore?

Posted by faberlicious > 2014-01-02 17:31 | Report Abuse

Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004
Revenue


467127 344269 269610 248408 186919 151797 116043 69119 43574 31345

PAT

134126 95607 63429 54275 48757 33394 19702 13506 8206 4026

EPS 102.84 *73.3 52.86 45.23 40.63 32.6 25 19.1 12.43 6.1

GDPS 35.5 30.00 19.88 16.88 15.08 12.84 6.84 5.33 0 0

ROE 34.82 30.7 23.82 23.27 24.5 26.72 38.35 30.6 23.6 23.37

AeonCr 10 years track record- EXCELLENT

Posted by faberlicious > 2014-01-02 17:33 | Report Abuse

Btw, those figures are taken from AR 2008 and 2013.

Posted by lsv1977final > 2014-01-02 17:37 | Report Abuse

Aberdeen still selling. Base on last year record, they only stop on February. If they stick to annual process, this is scary.

Posted by khlaw > 2014-01-02 18:17 | Report Abuse

wait to collect at 12.00 or below, pls drop more...

Posted by i3investor700 > 2014-01-03 09:15 | Report Abuse

Aberdeen sell, Mitsu buy. Only 2 giant players in this game

Posted by Investor > 2014-01-03 10:54 | Report Abuse

now, who are the players made the price downtrend?

Posted by Kevin Gibb > 2014-01-03 10:55 | Report Abuse

老王在800元時買進股王「紅茶店」，隨後一路享受飆漲到1300元的快感。不過之後股價卻暴跌，而在此過程中老王一直不死心，覺得利空是暫時的，越跌要越加碼，最後「紅茶店」跌到只剩100多元，每張股票賠60幾萬….

阿美在26元時買進「豐姨」，之後股價一路震盪下跌，最慘時跌到16元。但阿美覺得利空是暫時的，越跌要越加碼，最後平均成本約在20元左右。在股價落底後，因為業績與景氣轉好，「豐姨」股價又一路回到33元，阿美大賺65%！

看到這裡，大家可能會疑惑，一樣是相信「利空是暫時的」，並且採取「越跌要越加碼」這個動作，為什麼老王慘賠，阿美卻賺錢？
難道投資股票跟賭博沒兩樣，輸贏都只能靠運氣嗎？

問題在哪裡 你發現了嗎？

See http://www.cmoney.tw/notes/note-detail.aspx?cid=22814&nid=7942 for the entire story.
AEONCR is just fit to the 2nd case ( 阿美 case ), which is a fundamentally strong stock and no doubt is seriously undervalue.

Posted by super911 > 2014-01-03 11:05 | Report Abuse

Kevin, nice one. Give you a LIKE.

Posted by Investor > 2014-01-03 12:04 | Report Abuse

Can any one of you predict at what price it will go down coz need to get preparing for margin call.

Posted by lsv1977final > 2014-01-03 12:48 | Report Abuse

Aberdeen and Mots are same company

Posted by lsv1977final > 2014-01-03 12:49 | Report Abuse

Aberdeen and Mitsu are same c2

Posted by wongkok > 2014-01-03 14:59 | Report Abuse

Only god knows

Posted by khlaw > 2014-01-03 17:00 | Report Abuse

Top loser list again...

Posted by nightshade > 2014-01-03 17:02 | Report Abuse

wow....

Posted by lsv1977final > 2014-01-03 18:31 | Report Abuse

Good new. Drop heavilly mean downside is going to end. Will rebound soon...

Posted by nightshade > 2014-01-03 18:32 | Report Abuse

no no no...please continue enjoying the diving first....wait till my fund arrive first...

Posted by nightshade > 2014-01-03 18:41 | Report Abuse

are they worry about the inflation & GST will discourage spending moving forward

Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-01-03 18:56 | Report Abuse

nightshade,

Better don't buy into falling knives in all high flying shares of year 2013. This is year 2014 - a new reality of caution in unfolding. Stay safe. Don't chase shares. Buy laggards with potential like MUI Berhad Because of VISIT MALAYSIA YEAR 2014 & YEAR OF FESTIVAL 2015.

Posted by nightshade > 2014-01-03 19:03 | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng, i look see at the moment....my fresh fund not arrive yet...so not doing anything at the moment...

thank you for your warning...

Posted by CallASpadeASpade > 2014-01-06 09:22 | Report Abuse

best time to accumulate

Posted by Kevin Gibb > 2014-01-08 11:23 | Report Abuse

It is indeed surprising that Aeon Credit share price still performs badly even though its business is as solid as ever and also that it has resolved its 16% Capital Adequacy Ratio by successfully selling Perpetual Bond recently at very reasonable interest rate of 6.50%. So what is holding back its share performance ?

In my opinion, there are 2 possible reasons :- 1) Selling down by foreign fund managers 2) Damage done by the analyst report which purportly blew up the issue of " rising bad debt " in Aeon Credit.

Selling Down By Foreign Fund Managers
The news of QE tapering, first surfaced 4 months ago , sent tremor of fear through our market, resulting in massive selldown by foreign fund managers. While we were still trying to grasp what this QE tapering was, the selling persisted to the tune of circa 100mil of share value per day. Today the selling is less intense now at about 50mil per day. But surprisingly, there were few consercutive days when the foreign funds are the net buyers : 58mil(27Dec13), 122mil(30Dec13), 49mil(31Dec13) and 11mil(2Jan14). Judging by the net buying figure towards the end of 2013, anyone would have concluded that foreign funds had started coming back here again! I might be daydreaming!

Let us look at what is the impact of this selling. Many foreign darling stocks had fallen substantially off their peak resulting from the massive foreign selling. Listed below the affected foreign stocks(mostly owned by Aberdeen) :
1. Lafarge Cement Rm8.43 (down 25% from its peak of Rm11.20)
2. AEON Rm13.60 (down 24% from its peak of Rm18.00)
3. AEON Credit Rm14.06 (down 25% from its peak of Rm18.86)
4. Guiness Anchor Rm15.88 (down 28% from its peak of Rm22.00)
5. Carlsberg Rm12.00 (down 29% from its peak of Rm17.10)
6. Panamy Rm21.70 (down 20% from its peak of Rm27.00)
7. Nestle Rm68.02 (down 2% from its peak of Rm69.60)
8. BAT Rm63.76 (down 3% from its peak of Rm65.50)

Nestle and BAT seems to be the only 2 foreign stocks that were spared the punishment !Anyway, since this selling has nothing to do with the fundamental of the company, I believe the affected shares will stage a strong rebounce once the selling subsides.

Damages Done By Analyst Report
I believe you might have read an analyst report appearing 2 times (one in English and the other in Mandarin) in local newspaper a month ago alleging that there was a upsurge in Aeon Credit bad loans or gross impaired loan(GIL) from 1 6% to 2.0%. The author cautioned that if the GIL deteriorates further, he may downgrade the share.

Before I comment on it , let us look at the GIL of some of our major banks :- CIMB 3.7%, RHB 3.0% , Affin 2.1%, Alliance 2.1%, Maybank 1.9%, HL Bank 1.4%, PBank 0.7%. I just wonder why the analyst complimented CIMB for its healthy GIL of 3.7% and at the same times condemned Aeon Credit for the uptick in GIL from 1.6% to 2.0% as alarming? I believe he would have been more careful in selecting his words if Aeon Credit was majority owned by his family. The painful memory of Public Bank share price tumbling from Rm10.20 to its lowest Rm8.10 in Mar2009 after CLSA Research published its damaging report on Public Bank's capital adequacy ratio in the local newspapers, is still vivid in my mind!

Just a bit of my personal opinion, I believe it is normal for an analyst to react like that to protect his reputation or rice bowl as he is still under employment. He started cover Aeon Credit only when Aeon Credit share price hit 18.00. His first report recommended a buy with a price target of 20.20. After the release of the report, Aeon Credit did go up to its peak of 18.90 before nosediving all the way down to Rm17.30. Then he issued another report still recommending to buy Aeon Credit but with a lower price target of Rm18.00. Then Aeon Credit went through a series of fall to its current low of 14.06. This is the dilemma faced by a analyst. If he issues a report and the stock flies, he may get a raise from his boss. But if his report forcasts zigs, but the share price happens to zags, then he may be in for a trouble. So to protect his ricebowl, he may resort to finding "bone in the egg", hoping to find something to put all his blame on. So Aeon Credit bad loans became the scapegoat.

I do not see any problems with Aeon Credit. It business is still as solid as ever albeit slightly slower net profit growth. Its financial ratios are still as shiny as ever and its valuation is extremely cheap now!

Posted by Kevin Gibb > 2014-01-08 11:24 | Report Abuse

best time to accumulate, as what CallASpadeASpade said...