Those who were brave during the last few days of market downturn would have been rewarded. Aeon Credit rebounded strongly from the low of RM11.72 to closed at RM12.92 on Friday.
Monday is the last day of trading Aeon Credit shares on Cum-BI basis. Let's watch the closing price at the end of Monday and calculate the theoretical ex-BI price.
5139CA AEONCR-CA AEONCR-CA:CW AEON CRDIT SVC-AM Listing Information & Profile for Structured Warrants
Since mother share is beyond my budget, am looking at its call warrant. Now trading 0.155/0.160
Following extracted for members review N comments:
Instrument Type : Structured Warrants Type of Structured Warrants : Call Warrants Description : European Style Settled Underlying Stock : AEON Credit Service (M) Berhad Issuer : AmBank (M) Berhad Stock Code : 5139CA Stock Short Name : AEONCR- Initial Listing Information : Listing Date : 06/09/2012 Term Sheet Date : 05/09/2012 Issue Date : 05/09/2012 Issue/ Ask Price : MYR 0.1500 Issue Size in Unit : 100,000,000 Maturity Date : 28/07/2013 Exercise/ Strike/ Conversion Price : MYR 12.3000 Revised Exercise/ Strike/ Conversion Price : Exercise/ Conversion Ratio : 22:1 Revised Exercise/ Conversion Ratio : Settlement Type/ Convertible into : CashName and contact details of the market maker (if applicable) : AmBank (M)Berhad22nd Floor Bangunan AmBank Group55 Jalan Raja Chulan50200 Kuala LumpurMalaysia03-9235 3388Circumstances under which the market maker may not be able to provide quotes(if applicable) : Please refer to Section 1.4 of the Base Prospectus dated 23August 2012.Remarks :
Aeon Credit closed today at 12.78 and tomorrow the counter goes ex-BI. Based on this price, the theoretical ex-BI is RM10.65 per share. The price may fluctuate between RM10 to RM11 tomorrow onward. However, with the strong earning growth of the company, it is probable that the share price would hit RM12 again before the end of 2013.
Aeon Credit closed at RM10.90 today, up 26 sen from the ex-BI price of RM10.64 per share. Not spectacular but substantial gain, considering the fact that the market is in a deep correction mode for the last few days, and that most stocks are swimming in the sea of red ink. The next advance would probably come in the next few weeks when the 2Q result is released together with announcement of a dividend. By then, we should see the share price cruising past RM11 mark effortlessly.
Aeon Credit dropped 20 sen to closed at RM10.72 per share. This could be due to the scheduled listing of 24 million new shares resulting from the recent BI on Friday. Although Aeon Credit is a blue chip now with good prospect of long term growth, some shareholders may decide to take profit, which is very normal. Any dip in the share price of this counter is an opportunity to buy. Watch out for the soon-to-be-released 2Q results and dividend payment! anytime after Sept 20.
A substantial shareholder, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. ("MUFG") has just bought 1,851,600 Aeon Credit shares on 11/09/2012. MUFG now owns a total of 11,109,600 or 9.258%. They have been buying Aeon Credit for the last few years when the price was as low as below RM3 and the current purchase was struck at a price above RM10 per share. It is worth noting the confidence of MUFG shown in Aeon Credit.
The chairman of Aeon Credit bought a total of 62,180 shares on 13 Sept, 2 days after ex-BI. When an insider buys shares, it is a good sign because he has privileged information of good things happening. Of course, he has to declare his dealings and that is how we can interpret the future movement of share price.
Aeon Credit has just declared the 2Q results: 50.15 sen per share which is an increase of 41% over last year's earning. At the same time, the company has also declared an interim dividend of 16 sen single tier for the enlarged capital base after BI. No wonder the Chairman bought shares from the open market on 13 Sept 2012.
EX-date 02/10/2012 Entitlement date 04/10/2012 Entitlement time 05:00:00 PM Entitlement subject Interim Dividend Entitlement description Interim single tier dividend of 16.00 sen per ordinary share of RM0.50 each for the financial year ending 20 February 2013 Period of interest payment to Financial Year End 20/02/2013 Share transfer book & register of members will be to closed from (both dates inclusive) for the purpose of determining the entitlements Registrar's name ,address, telephone no Symphony Share Registrars Sdn Bhd Level 6, Symphony House, Block D13 Pusat Dagangan Dana 1 Jalan PJU 1A/46 47301 Petaling Jaya Selangor Darul Ehsan Tel No: 03-7841 8000 Fax No: 03-7841 8008 Payment date 22/10/2012
There were waves of selling beginning from from Sept 11 - the ex-BI date. Many of those who received bonus shares cashed out in the last three weeks. It is of course understandable as the market was soft during that period of time - a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. The share price was pushed down close to RM10 at the lowest ebb.
I think the selling has dried up and the share price rebounded strongly recording a close of RM10.52 last Friday. Most likely, Aeon Credit is on the path to the north again with RM11 within its striking range. The 16 sen single tier dividend will go ex on 2 OCT.
Consumer sector will benefit from the recent budget. Firstly, there is an 1 1/2 month bonus for all civil servant. Secondly, there will be much tax savings for the middle income group which may range from RM400 to RM1,000 due to reduction in tax rates. All this excess money will find its way into consumer market.
Aeon Credit, being the largest consumer-good financier will definitely benefit from the excess money sloshing around in the consumer market.
Recent article in BT reported that Aeon Credit Service is seeking acquisitions in the financial services industry to diversify its business.
"The company wants to further expand beyond consumer finance to tap rising demand from smaller companies and for used-car loans," Managing Director Yasuhiro Kasai said in an interview in Kuala Lumpur on 6/10/2012.
Aeon Credit Malaysia will make purchases that “help us grow faster,” Kasai said. “We go for the middle-sized or bigger companies because they have more talented people and much bigger customer base.”
Writer's comment: Reputable company like Aeon Credit does not simply make press statements. When they do, they mean it and they will do it. New acquisitions will complement the existing organic growth and accelerate the earning growth.
It was a fantastic week for Aeon Credit. The share price shot up from RM10+ to smashed through the RM11 barrier, closing the week at RM11.40 per share. Some light selling by Aberdeen, a substantial institutional shareholder was noted. All the shares available were mopped up by a stream retail buyers.
Selling by Aberdeen does not mean Aeon Credit is over-priced. They have their own reasons: may be they are switching counters or may be they need to raise cash to meet redemption by their unit holders. As it is, Aeon Credit still has a lot of steam.
It has been reported that Aeon of Japan will buy over the 23 stores of Carrefour Hyper Market of Malaysia at USD250 million. The deal may be completed as soon as next week as reported by Star today.
While Aeon and Aeon Credit are not directly related, they are nevertheless sister companies with a common parent company Japan Aeon. Acquisition of Carrefour chain will open up more consumer financing business for Aeon Credit. In addition, Aeon Credit will benefit from the management of loyalty cards for members of newly acquired outlets.
This new acquisition of the Carrefour chain may be the single most important catalyst that will push share price of Aeon Credit beyond the RM12 mark in the near future.
It is confirmed that Aeon Japan is buying 26 hypermarkets of Carrefour Malaysia for 250 million Euro (about RM1 billion). When the news was published today, share price of Aeon came down 20 sen to RM12.28 but Aeon Credit moved up 38 sen to RM12.34 at closing.
The reason is very simple: in the short to medium term, Aeon Credit will benefit more than Aeon. Below is the explanation:
a) Carrefour Malaysia is a losing money concern. It would take Aeon probably a few years to turn it around. At the same time, Aeon might have to borrow money to fund the purchase. Interest incurred would eat into the current profit of Aeon.
b) Aeon Credit can move in and capitalised on the consumer financing of Carrefour customers. Aeon Credit will also benefit by managing loyalty cards of Carrefour members. The beauty of the situation is that Aeon Credit can make profits without having to spend much additional cost.
It is reported that Aeon Malaysia will not take over Carrefour but instead, the parent company Aeon Japan will operate the acquired hypermarket chain and rename it as Aeon Big. This is bad news for Aeon Malaysia because Aeon Big will to some extent cannibalize Aeon Malaysia. That is why price of Aeon Malaysia continues to fall.
However, the news of separate operator for the new chain remain good news for Aeon Credit.Regardless of who operates the new chain, Aeon Big is a sister company of Aeon Credit and there will vast opportunity for expansion in consumer financing. That is why price of Aeon Credit keeps rising, up by 56 sen to hit RM12.90 today.
The Glutton protocol: If you are going to get kicked out of a restaurant, eat all you can, fatten yourself to last a few generations before being kicked out.
Anyone can explain why is this counter so high but only giving out RM0.195 dividend? Feels like overpriced should be less than RM10 worth. Maybank is giving out RM0.33 sen dividend and their stock is only at RM9.50...
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
petracot
179 posts
Posted by petracot > 2012-09-08 12:25 | Report Abuse
Those who were brave during the last few days of market downturn would have been rewarded. Aeon Credit rebounded strongly from the low of RM11.72 to closed at RM12.92 on Friday.
Monday is the last day of trading Aeon Credit shares on Cum-BI basis. Let's watch the closing price at the end of Monday and calculate the theoretical ex-BI price.