Yesterday KC Loh has a very solid rationale for the lackluster performance of JCY. Everybody should think twice before betting on this counter. It's our hard earned money.
Yesterday, JCY surged from 77 sen to closed at 81.5 sen with heavy volume. Today it dropped 2.5 sen to 79 sen. This is what we call "dead cat bounce". Upward price movement of JCY would need to be sustained for a couple of weeks before the uptrend can be confirmed. Until then, there would be lots of bull traps along the way.
The current price for 3.5' 500GB SATA Harddisk Drive is about RM170-190. Last year before Thailand flood, the price is around RM105-125. Please think about it. Do you think JCY will still go back to RM0.40??
After the "strange budget", the incoming GE, the weakening of comodity price, deteriorating of euro zone, the index is hovering in all times high region with blue chip at peak valuation, the ghost of oct ......all these sugur well for "korektion".....
Need to rebalance my asset class....i think "prudent" is the word of to live with....
They are exchanging the shares and the stop loss is at RM0.72... Reliable sources it will rebound back to RM1.... Perhaps time to collect... Me had 300,000 shares at RM0.80.... Be patient...
The persistent sell down of JCY is a cause of concern. Initially, a lot of people blamed Investment Banks for the slide. They say that the price was pushed down in order to protect IBs from big pay-outs to call warrant holders.
I think the slump in JCY price is more serious than that. All the exercise prices of CWs are above RM1 and hence share price of JCY below RM1 poses no threat to the IBs. But JCY is still sliding and big timers are still selling. The only beneficiaries of the current situation are put warrant holders.
What do all these scenarios tell the market? I think the simple answer is: there is probably a fundamental change in the HDD business and financial figures. To be sure of the matter, watch out for the 4Q results and company explanations before you take the next course of actions.
Previously when buy JCY at price RM0.45 really not much people comment on this forum,after it break RM1 suddenly this counter become blue chip and hot topic.Everybody need to pray to Thee Kong for more rain.
WOW...BUYER COLLECT 3.3 MILL JCY RM0.78 WITHIN 5 MINUTES...SEE U NEXT WEEK...NOW S/HOLDER CSL VERY HAPPY MAA.. SO, NEXT ROUND JCY.... DONT WORRY...PLAYER COME BACK...
I do think they will send another person to make all trapped here to trust him, then send the stock flying again before they distribute to the herd, who somehow like to follow the crowds.
As they said, market is the only place where u do not need to learn, study or use logic. Proven by so many illogical followers here. Perhaps greed in play.
When should we look at any stocks again? When no one interested to check her anymore. When this noisy forum quieten. When some illogical forummers here biting their nails, and start to realize they are losing money and wasting their time.
I m saddened to see actually we have so many believe him that it will go to rm2, calling him sifu, god etc etc. whether we mean it or not, we are lowering ourselves to his level. Many profit hugely from this speculation and of coz we have many more followers, late comers continue to feed into the system. I will like to write another post about jcy if it really goes to 50cents?
Till then, take that as a lesson to learn. Do not blame him or anyone. That is how market works.
50 cent? tolong la.. jcy is not harvest or nicorp, it actually paid dividend, real hard cash, the company even heavily buy back at 0.95-1.05, they probably doesnt have the stock market experience like YTL, but it indicated that they think the price is under-valued. which is a good thing.
what i see here is an over-reacted crowd sentiment. :)
I think I still have to thank Lamken, because of him I managed to make profit for trading this counter. I am lucky enough to dispose all the shares at the level around RM 1.5 + and never buy back again if not I think I have to jump from Twin tower because at that time I was holding around RM 750 K of JCY shares. Thanks again Lamken even though what ever you said is BULLSHIT and NEVER materialized. Wahahaha !!!!! (Follow fat cat.)
yo yo , pls dig deep n think wisely , so far financial figures doesn't indicate down trend is round corner , unless 3Q is disappointing ??? Meantime , forecast 0.50 unlikely for short term , more likely to rebound back 0.85 , mah ........ ha ha
I've been fortunate with JCY so far I guess, with both the mother and -CF. This is what I see of JCF: it is a widely-followed and speculative counter but one that is also backed by good fundamentals. It is different from other counters like Ingens, Cybert etc. whose business performances don't justify the attention they've gotten.
From what I see, there seems to be only one negative factor - albeit something that's admittedly critical - i.e. forecasts and projections that its next reported quarter will come up with deteriorating results due to perceived lesser demand for HDD parts. But many automatically "deteriorating" or "poorer" results with "a loss", which is not really correct. For the first two quarters so far, JCY had reported PROFITS. Year-on-Year, it is still way in the black. If things are really going to be THAT bleak for JCY, I'd say the management would have chosen to keep a lid on expenditure, including in not giving out dividends. But they did in the last quarter, despite the `poorer' results.
I'm not recommending for people to buy - I'd never do that with ANY counter. But I still feel there's money to be made with JCY although it will be risky. At the same time, it's risky with ANY counter, including the so-called "quality stocks" because there's no guarantee of anything (Sime Darby, KLK, IJM etc. come to mind).
My strategy with JCY is "hit and run"; go against the crowd. That's what I've been doing with the -CF the past few weeks. But you will have to cash out FAST - one sen profit is A LOT and that's the time to exit. If it goes down, then buy again. I'm trying to get it at 0.02 - although the exercise price of 1.22 looks a bit too high, the four months to expiry date gives the punter a fighting chance. Yes, its premium is also high but then this is JCY - with CWs, interest and momentum are more important. And JCY has both.
not only jcy-cf,jcy cg & jcy ci also have premium when mother going up to rm0.82 above .. the cg & ci start rebound at r0.02-0.03...please refer chart...
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
poonj
947 posts
Posted by poonj > 2012-10-02 16:07 | Report Abuse
Drop back@@