assthrow: you are right. If they want all the call warrants puk kai, just let JCY stay at RM1.2 will do the job. I believe the sharks will push mother share up again to attract interest in the call warrants again before expiry.
paulina, no, milk and bread is not addictive as alcohol or tobacco, if you telling someone that drinking milk or eating bread is the cause of their illness and stop consume it will bring them back to healthy , i bet most of them will give it a try, and cutting those food is not difficult as quitting smoke or drinking alcohol..
and if everyone find out it is work, and stop consume milk or wheat, the industry will find a way out, maybe like stop injecting shit to mother cow, and stop growing dwarf wheat which is contain a lot of gluten that doesnt even need pesticides, because insect is smart enough not to eat it..
i dont know u play dumb or what, but if the food is so bad, we should spread the info out to as many people as possible, just like we promote not to smoke ' tak nak '?
and yes you are evil, because you tell me dont tell people the truth, so that they will continue get sick and continue go for healthcare centre.
this is my first time i write such a long reply, and i hope i wont have to do it again.
remember, you dont have to agree with me as i do you ,jesus christ.. i was thinking not to comment, but wth? type so long already lol :D
This forum is actually too dangerous to discuss further the insights of JCY. Every of our movements and opinions are being monitored. We could be representing the handful of investors for their analysis. Manipulation of the price is pretty much can be seen by yesterday's tradings. I seriously do not believed HDD business is kaputing very soon. Bursa Malaysia need to take steps to investigate this company. This is public listed company. Everyone deserved to know the real picture of the stuffen price fall for the last few days. What European market is slowing down? Stupid excuses! Lame founding s/h. The next minute price drops, the next minute they have good excuse to feed you guys. Just mark my words, the next minute everyone is barking that the price is dropping, those are the time the price will goes up! No fundamental involved. TRADING SHOULD HALT ON THIS JCY.
Coughlin Associates founder Tom Coughlin said per-gigabyte prices for HDDs and SSDs are dropping at the same pace -- about 50% per year -- so the sizeble price gap between the two will remain for years to come.
Gregory Wong, a solid-state drive analyst with market research firm Forward Insights agreed.
"I think the issue with SSD adoption is that prices have not been favorable," he said. "And there's still going to be a gap between HDD and SSD prices, even five years from now."
The average consumer in the market for a desktop or laptop doesn't pay a lot of attention to drive I/O speeds -- he tends to focus more on capacity. So when a drive offers less capacity, even when it's an SSD, it's apt to get passed over, according to Wong.
so in 2012, it seems HDD doesn't fade away still. looks more like a cheaper option to the dearer and limited capacity of SSD (which is more server & military based requirements until Samsung can get it to their pricing correct) read : http://www.itproportal.com/2012/05/15/ssd-vs-hdd-whats-difference/
dont think HDD will also go away on the basis of being outdated, and JCY pricing is solely blamed on loss of sales in Europe according to Kenanga (http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/fdnews/213379.jsp). but is that true? they even had their FV at 1.38. So what is the negative factors mentioned by Kenanga?
so we already discussed today, its institutional manipulation and fear peddlers out at work trying to avoid the cost of warrant paid! the rest of the last minute experts promoting their hypotheses.... well, its subject to each's discernment now!
To me, the only thing that I agree on after the last quarter's report is this: the TP of 2.00 is no longer valid. Therefore, a correction to a more reasonable level is in order. But not below 1.00. I feel it's from 1.02-1.40. Consider the following: 1) It reported a lower quarter not a loss. 2) It is giving yet another dividend. 3) After the current quarter's report, the year-on-year for three quarters will almost certainly show better numbers.
So, it appears that the matter of "lower HDD parts demand" and "minimum wage" are the only factors that are legitimately serving as dampeners to its share price. Is JCY the one and only company in the whole country and world facing this? What are its peers' numbers and share prices comparatively? If there are discrepancies, then it points to "external factors" being responsible for this extreme drop in price. Sentiments, as in the fear factor, are the main reasons with fundamentals being only a small reason. In fact, the latter has been grossly distorted into shaping these negative sentiments.
Many are using its 52-week low of 38 sen or so as the basis to weigh their own fair vale price. Why should it be so for this isn't Cybert or GPRO, whose drops are justified? At its current PE Ratio and dividend yield, JCY is way too cheap and presents a bargain. Yesterday's fall to 90 sen was a great opportunity to buy. As usual, many were paralysed - such is the fear factor and I don't blame them (my throat was dry and the heart thumping before and after I clicked the "Buy" button). They might be proven to be right in the short term but if/when JCY's price goes up, the same people will be kicking themselves and lamenting "How did I let myself miss that opportunity?!"
Don't know how the market will treat JCY today. It's difficult to anticipate what the mood will be on a very near term basis, like daily. But that's the traders and contra players' timeframe and with counters like JCY, their present sentiment will be what counts the most today. I'm holding on to the "longer" term of a few months though where the price distortion will eventually be ironed out.
I really suggest you guys take time and study the chairman's statement in their 2011 annual report and do a comparison with the price movement. You will note that price movement since then is logically explained, from driving it to a high of rm1.4x due to their factory in saraburi not being scathed by Thailand's flood.(did I mention before that their new factory in shouzhou china is operational this year?) to the point of the started paying dividends (so far third one now) and turnaround plans being taken since 2011. The high price is also given because they took advantage when big companies like WD were affected by the flood and they were in good position to take advantage with their current stock in hand til leading to a fall in sales (because normalcy returned to the rest started to produce HDD again) when the market (and competitors) subsequently made recovery after 2 quarters. Their cash in hand position of more than 100mn profit vis-a-vis was the result of that eventful flooding that caused worldwide shortage of up to 35-50% global shortage demand and spiked up the average selling price.
I suggest all the last minute experts and fear peddlars do some research based on fundamentals before posting and come out with all sort of theories from insider trading, privatisation (guess it started from Malaysia-finance blogsite which the author in 2011 admittedly didn't give much credelence to), flooding accounts rigging, etc! Remember the words of tan sri P Ramlee failing which you will be joining in CIMB's motley crew!
Oh yes, this stock is not a penny stock to begin with. Try finding the post by Alex Lu who made a good analysis and came to a conclusion to take profit once. do also a price movement analysis what led it to fall to about 40-sens and subsequent rebound back to its fair value and even beyond to 1.4x price in the first place. Look that the 2000-2012 tradesignum chart from his entry!
My apologise my notebook is not with me as I am currently away on some errands, but I will be glad to show it on point-to-point basis when I return in a few hours!
buckle your seat belt !!!! we are going for a roller-coaster ride (downwards bias) watch for 1620 ... if break then prepare for lunch & dinner , General Erction soon .....
I reckon when one looks a stock, yes, fundamentals are impt but by the same token, market sendiments, management of company,external factors vis-a-vis floods in thailand, etc are also as impt...In JCY 's case, its marketability will decline in view of new technology in the market .I dont see this company fairing very well in the future .My 2 sens worth...
i always advise, Never Fall In Love with Your Stocks , Profit Take whenever possible .... there was once a idiotic parasite here (who is long gone now) who always ask his followers to hang on ... add on ... & promise eating abalone nonsence talking ... all these members are now stuck big time in khsb, wct-wb, dumbtag .....
for me & probably datuk ... we see market korek-tion in very positive manner .... we have a chance to buy cheap stocks & gains in technical rebound (10:06am) down 13+ see whether 1620 can hold
Yuzuli....dun have crystal ball with me....my toyol as claimed by KC dun inherited that power...hehehe
However, my common sesnse did suggest the following:
scenario 1 = when the price sudden drop due to the big boy distribution then....the buyers were mostly traders.....then i think zero chance for rm0.89 to stay......when force selling due...
Scenario 11 = institutional buyers/potential investors/unimformed traders believe that it's worth to accumulate....then the supporting level is at rm0.89.......
Dun be naive it to think trader can making money from the sudden price collapse....
So this on-off thing about the GE is now on again then? That explains the fall in index-linked counters and the BSKL. But they are due for a correction anyway. There will be opportunities to buy the quality counters at a more reasonable price. Have to be patient where waiting will be more profitable than simply jumping in to buy too early.
In JCY's case, traders' perception will be crucial in the next few days. People are uncertain and uncommitted at the moment as seen from the price. One plus for it is that it has gone down so much and weak holders have dropped out after the shakeout. It *shouldn't* go down by much anymore... unless if the big boys start selling and creates another shakeout.
jacklintan: i doubt so. The notice is just a notice of the done deal. Meaning the share buyback was done on 5/9/2012 (yesterday). it doesn't justify today's closing price anyway.
Alex Lu was right with that "Tipping Point" post. He didn't say "Don't buy" but from his "Sell into strength" is as good as "Don't buy". After the sharp fall, I had mentioned about buying. He said at around 1.00 might be okay. It doesn't matter if it went to 0.89 yesterday - the more important thing is that he indirectly agrees JCY shouldn't be below 1.00. I hope he writes another post based on the latest technical readings. I'm too much of an amateur to trust my own interpretation of charts.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
super911
300 posts
Posted by super911 > 2012-09-06 01:23 | Report Abuse
assthrow: you are right. If they want all the call warrants puk kai, just let JCY stay at RM1.2 will do the job. I believe the sharks will push mother share up again to attract interest in the call warrants again before expiry.