ppl thought last year magic will happen again, so bought at 1.07.. who's know close at 1.01. so are they going to cut loss at 1.01 ?? eh, market is hard to predict :)
Prob due to: (1) Dividend yield is very high, >7%. With interest rate unlikely to go up, this is very attractive. (2) Shares price is low, risk of capital depreciation is low. (3) Potential earnig improvement from new 'Jumpa' site in Sungai Wang. (4) EPF kept buying.
Investing in a REIT is actually not a bad idea. That being said, even Reits has to follow the normal investment valuation process. One should not just look at the dividend yield to make a decision on whether to invest in a certain reit or not. Dividend are still dependent on the earnings of the company. So, in the end you still need to look at the company’s fundamentals.
In the case of CMMT, the 12 months dividend paid is 7.9 sens which at the current price gives a dividend yield of 7.1%. However, investors should take note that the total earnings made by this company in the past 12 months was only RM135.6mil or an EPS of 6.63 sens. This would mean that the company is actually paying a dividend that is more than what it earns in the past 12 months. This is not sustainable as the company would either have to use its existing cash balance or it has to raised debt to pay the higher dividend. This will only reduce the future profit either because it has to pay extra interest payment (due to higher debt amount) or it will miss out on potential earnings from the disposed assets (if the asset was cash then it would miss out on potential interest income). Please take note that the net debt has increased from RN1.15bil in FY17 to RN1.22bil in FY18 ending Dec.
FY18 profit of RM135.6mil represent a fall in profit of around 12.4% vs FY17. In general, given the soft commercial mall segment (due to oversupply of malls) it is expected that future rental in this segment will trend lower. Investors need to be prepared for a potential decrease of dividend payment in the future.
In addition, at the current share price, CMMT is trading at a PE multiple of 16.8x which is high considering that the future profit is expected to record negative (or at best flat) growth.
If you are looking to hedge your portfolio outside of CMMT (due to its negative growth outlook and relatively high valuation), I would recommend you to look at MBMR. (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp)
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.3x PE based on FY18 profit of RM166mil. PB is low at only 0.7x BV.
FY19 should deliver another profit growth year to the company. Profit growth will again be driven by the performance of Perodua (via MBMR 22.6% holdings in Perodua) from the still strong sales of new Myvi, sales of SUV Aruz and the introduction of the newly revamp Alza sometime in the 2H19. Aruz which commands a higher margin compared to other models, will help improve the total profit margin of Perodua (which will flow to MBMR’s bottom line as well).
MBMR is expected to achieve a profit of RM200mil in 2019. At the current share price, the company is being valued at only 5.1x which is a lot lower than the industry average of 15x PE. As an example, UMW (another company with exposure to Perodua) is currently trading at a PE multiple of almost 20x.
With the dividend yield about 6%, expected the BLR will be lower by coming quarter and the Sg Wang Mall will start to make contribution by end of this year. Take opportunity to start to accumulate few lots for mid term.
Posted by ks55 > Dec 22, 2014 09:11 AM | Report Abuse
Yes, I like retail REITs. But to invest in CMMT must have second thought. Just go to Sungai Wang, what do you see? Go to IOI City Mall in Putrajaya. What can you conclude? Hektar is most resilient and consistently pay out at least 10.4sen DPU. This work out to have DY 7.2% based on 1.45 share price.
As for office REITs, try to avoid QCT as PS acquisation is not at arms length. If waiver for PAC not granted, or PS acquisation aborted, then QCT is a good buy. Try to avoid any other office REITs because it will be getting harder and harder to find tenant.
Industrial REITs, best buy is still Atrium. No doubt Atrium Puchung is vacant right now, with able property manager, it will not be difficult to find tenant. Moreover, DPU for Jan 2015 will remain at 2.2sen (net profit from disposal of Rawang factory). This give DY 7.7% based on 1.17 share price.
For multi-dimension REITs, best choice is ARReit. Silverbird factory fiasco should be over in Jan 2015 with court proceeding (unless High5 play dirty trick again). Wisma Amanahraya in Jalan Semantan (Now rename Wisma ELM) is now lease to SEGI College University. In no time DPU will go back to 8 sen per unit.
Caution! Be caution!! Be most caution !!!! Don't trust MRCB will inject properties for new lease of life to QCT at arms length. Properties injected will be very much inflated. I don't trust QCM as someone has vested interest in these type of transactions.
Posted by ks55 > Feb 21, 2018 11:26 PM | Report Abuse X
Tropicana Mall was a bad buy. Sg Wang yet to recover even though MRT already completed.
Maintain hold with an unchanged target price (TP) of RM1.15
Jumpa began its AEI (asset enhancement initiative) works since 2Q18 and it is expected to be completed by end of the first half of 2019. It is scheduled for a soft opening in 3Q19. To date, Jumpa has advanced leasing negotiations that exceeds 50%.
CMMT was fool to decline queensbay Penang when it was given 1st rights of refusal some yrs ago. The managers thought KL malls to have bigger potential & fail to see the intense competition was a big big mistake..
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
BN_better
991 posts
Posted by BN_better > 2018-12-31 16:53 | Report Abuse
No window dressing like last year.