Yup we still have around 4 days to wait for lowest price before dividend,why so worry seems like today will close low too. After dividend possibly will get more lower.
is it time to buy? I believe today it is good buy up to 3.4, by using 25% of yr capital to buy at 3.4 level, it is good entry point, the big boy is likely to push another 10 sen down, then you can buy again using yr next 25% capital. The law of average is use by the big boy to push down the stock, I believe they are buying at current level. they are selling fr 3.53 level and buying back at 3.48 then sell again fr 3.45 and buying at 3.40, by forcing people to sell and at the same time collecting. they cannot sell all the way a fr 3.57 to 3.39 level. simply because the short position at this level is no advantage to them. Yes they may push another 10 sen down, don't worry just keep buying more. at the close you can see the seller at 3.40 also shaky seeing many buyer keep buying. just before it close, the price already hitting 3.42. It is another 2 day before t4 for those that bot at 3.7 level, we should wait but anything can happen, if it continue falling Monday just keep buying but don't use all yr capital, keep remaining capital 50% for 3 to 3.2 level. Another round of big volume selling is unlikely to push it toward rm3. If that happen, we can make a kill. by using average and multiple buying at different level is not a bad strategy. this is because we do not know by finite at what level it will stop. Even though many are expecting below rm3 level to buy, I believe it may not happen, simply because our market still got life, today we see strong support of the banking stocks, the local big boy does not want it to fall just like that.Look at Yinson, GOB, THHeavy Tebrau n Uemland. The operator insist to push down MHB today despite a well support by local big boy only to tell how arrogant they are, they are telling us if I want it down, it has to go down, sometime they make mistake too. They are against the market, look at Misc today, they also recovered, isn't it? I see Nomura selling non stop at 3.4, other brokers may be buying quietly. if you are in the market buying this afternoon, you can actually feel a lot of hidden hands buying!!!
Resistance now at 3.55 - 3.60. Strong support at about 3.20. If you buy at 3.40, upside is 0.150, down side 0.20... Not worth buying. 3 - 6 months, it should be up. Just like MISC, it needs to down one more time to about 3.20 to form double bottom chart. So many counters, why die die must buy this counter? Unless it drop to about 3.20. Scomi, seems want to breakout, we should buy shares on uptrend, right?
you were very bullish the other day, but I respect you to make a decision to cut all yr position at the close at 3.57. Not many people can do it, pls share what motivate you to cut all position on that day. Well executed trade. I am preparing to buy more if it manage to drop to 3.20 again. I like the volatility and liquidity and the play of MHB, it is interesting to trade. the upside with be huge for those who can hold one to two year. Do you all remember MHB moving fr 5+ to 8+, it only sustained for 4 month+, like a n curve, then slowly started to fall, 3.80 level a strong support level, yet they still manage to push down to 3.2 forming another u shape, and now struggling to climb, duration could be 3 to 4 month before it shoot up to 5+ again.Mean time just enjoy trading wth the big boy and make some money. Scomi is interesting and is on uptrend, but very difficult to read their move, even more difficult to time our move, wait till one day when they trade with ultra high vol then make a kill
Open high, close high with high volume, hold on. Open high, close low with high volume, sell. Don't buy any shares that who ever bought and sold is making a losses - within contra period. People see you are panic, will push the price to very low and cause you to cut.
My first price was 3.22, next day 3.43, next day 3.61. I can't afford to pick up all. With this kind of closing, stuck so much people at high price, bias is confirm on the down side. I have been doing this many many times and I know 8 out of 10 is down.
The different one, you can look at GOB.
落井下石easier or 拔刀相助?
That is the max I can shares and can't be even more details. Yup, I see buy signal, I will be bullish, if see sell signal, turn bearish. MHB movement is really unexpected... reach 3.75, still can close so low at 3.57, don't run, wait until when? My profit reduce by half very bu gan yuan but I have an exit strategy even before I buy, so I make the decision to sell fast.
Exit strategy is the first thing, you need to learn in investment.
Only my clients can get to know more in depth on my technical analysis skills. Hope you all understand. Thanks.
伟汉, you are absolutely right...look like you and me are in same thinking...However, it would be better if you listened to my analysis on 3.60 target price based on fundamental analysis...TA +FA= successful trading... We need people like them to keep buying when MHB continues to drop, so that technical picture can form in such way that it goes down step wise, instead of gapping down...Good luck to all traders! Anyway, if you miss the boat, just buy and hold, you will be rewarded eventually...No need to cut loss...Cutting loss is for professional traders like me and 伟汉.
Thank you for sharing your explaination wth us. I learn something very important fr you. MHB movement can caught people off guard sometime. You may hv overlooked they open 11 sen higher wth vol that day, you got over bullish and average up otherwise you would hv made a lot. Pls don't give up on MHB and continue guiding us wth yr TA.
GOB is hot in the trading chart of bursa, look extremely bullish, look like to go higher Monday. GOB has bot a lot of land in Batu Baung during Patrick LIm time, wth the second bridge completing soon and the development taking place in the area, most important is trading of this stock has gain momentum. It came down fr 85 sen to 76 sen wth heavy volume, and regain its momentum to 85 sen again in a day only to tell it want to surge higher.
Sorry, I am still a distance to call myself a professional trader. Average up never wrong if well manage on price you bought. Yup, you need to be very sharp, the time to sell. You kena something like KNM, bye bye. FYI: I bought KNM at 0.580, average up at 0.600, cut at 0.595. I do have some very very bad experience...
With the cash I have, my profit would only be half of what I get now. By averaging up, even my last trade is at a loss I am still better off in profit by 100%
A breakout, normally will up at least 20%.... sometimes even 100% before it stops and have sell signal. Just look at TH Heavy Engineering. If average up all the way... the profit will be unbelievable. I only need one trade like this a year...
Hi, Spinning Lotus, mind to have a coffee? Maybe I can learn a lot from you.
Talk easy, when want to buy or sell, not so easy... If I ai wan, not sold MHB at 3.70 or higher.. and keep for another day, the risk is way too high... vs potential return.
Got time look at Singapore shares. Just look at We Holdings. 300% in 6 days, just before the end of contra period!!! Don't average up? You miss a lot of fun.... I am one of the kiasi that miss all the fun... hai...
I seldom post my trading in this public forum ,i do the postmortem ,and my entry price, the gap up, marked up ,ding- dong ,the drop, its volume... Oh ....what went wrong, this was the deadly trap ( they r in the dark). I wonder how many being trapped by Wednesday movement , the game will continue , but how , they decide , we follow but defensive trade, how, trading suggested by qqq668 worth consider ,if still believe/confident in the stock , buy in stages when the entry price emerge , stay focus.
Not so simple... I only reveal a bit. Who cares of us? We are just kacang putih. If they know got someone keep buying, u think they will push up? Push down to hell n let u panic... MHB market cap so big n not like redtone or th heavy that can go against logic...too much.
The reason is they might be plenty of silence readers out there that chasing , no doubt we wont be affected , but how about them ,those contra players, no TA background ,inexperience/young traders...
Let them kena burn lah. U think spend thousands attend a course n read books, trades n trades can be millionaire? A lot are not reveal in the course or books. I can talk a lot here, who knows what I really bought? Maybe redtone...? The most wasting money is attend the course. BC they cannot make it in trading so organize course to earn a living.... LOL...
Thanks for the really interesting discussion on this MHB thread. Very enlightening with knowledgeable sifus with experience, not like some thread where some forumer keep on hentam each other. Keep on the momentum, really enjoy reading and learning. Many thanks.
It is true we can make a lot of money by averaging up or triple long our position on a stock that is riding high. It work for a lot of warrants in a very bullish market like gamuda w, dialog w two weeks ago. But for MHB, we are taking opportunity where syndicate hammered the stock down, we take position and believe the stock will regain its value in the near future. Value surface when the stock dip below its fundamental value like now. I believe MHB is one of the only co in Bursa that has the experience and capability to do deep sea (1000 to 3000m) project. It has broken the record when they successfully rolled out and commissioned the first deep sea oil n gas project, FPSO Kikeh in Sabah in water depth of 1330m in 2007, the second in Gumusut Kakap and the third the Malikai Tension Leg which is currently fabricating wth its partner Technip. why no compliment on the achievement by MHB. wth the enlarged yard capacity and technical know how they are poised to bag more deep sea projects from PETRONAS. This is inline wth PETRONAS strategy of exploring deep sea E and P programs. The future is bright for this company. But what we hear now are all the negative comments on the delay project delivery, slow project replenishment and nothing positive. Why is this happening? Are they working wth some one to push down the stock so that they can accumulate at low price. Even Alliance Reseach has a Hold call on MHB after the latest result released, target price is 4.06. You can see it is very logical the big boy sold down last WEdnesday, First they take profit, Second they deter buyer to chase wth them on MHB, they want to tell us it is not stable, it is coming down, it may come down more. If You follow their momentum, you will always left behind. Because they move faster than you, and they get rid earlier than you. They can short sell, they are always ahead, they hv more man power and more resources. SO we have to be steady and hold tight because we know the stock price below 3.61 is already low , but some people still want it to go lower before committing, human nature. Good Luck
Yes , in trading , it is almost impossible for us to pick at the bottom .But if ur r good in TA , ur entry wont be too far from the bottom. I realise my mistakes ,too confident ....But by applying ur backup plan ,hope that it will be better. Let see how my following trades fare.......I still feel that if ones want to survive long in trading world , beside FA ,he ve to improve on entry and exit setup
Best buy below rm3.30...but support level still at ipo price..any time will going up..if misc maintain at rm5.00, beware mhb can follow..buy and hold for 6 month, confirm profit rm1 pershare.. wait n see..necro buy this stock..
After MHB give generously rm100 single tier dividen, should the stock dip or rise ? Let see how did the stock perform before it go ex, as you can see today, despite the market drop 10 points why did MHB did not drop? Simple answer, the fund is buying, if the general market so weak and yet MHB still manage to hold well at 3.48, how do you expect it to go down very much from here? How many people are so willing to buy for the dividen at this price? how many oil n gas counter that can afford to pay dividen of rm100 per 1000 share? with a cash pile of rm890 Million in hand, MHB is oneof the very few oil and gas that pay you this much, not even Dialog. MISC could not pay dividen last year and this year may be able to pay some. MHB has been paying dividen for the last 3 years, and can afford to pay for the near future, is n't it worth holding? Why should the investors sell a stock of this quality that is laying eggs? After go EX of dividen should the stock go down as many are hoping, including me.
I am hoping it will drop so that my cost is cheaper after ex, but pls bear in mind a lot of traders are hoping to enter after ex, because cost is cheaper? and the past experiance for MHB are the stock shot up immediately after ex. So chances of it coming down is very less. TOday i can feel that a lot of buyers are accumulating MHB, tmrw i guess the same is going to happen, pls ask your self, if you pay rm3500 and you get rm100, is it worth buying? If you answer is yes, then just buy it, tmrw last day. If yr answer is No, then forget about it, wait for lower price, let other people buy it.
Let compare MISC and MHB, at current price which one would you choose to buy? Both are majority owned by Petronas. ALmost all research are call BUY on MISC, calling SELL on MHB. But at today market it is obvious that MISC is falling, MHB is holding very well. MHB i believe has a much bigger upside potential than MISC. Fundamentally MHB is more solid than MISC, earning potential is also higher and clearer. You may say MHB is trading at 2.3x book value, MISC only at 0.9X book value, why is this happening? The reason is MHB has bigger earning capability than MISC. Dialog IS trading 4 to 5 time book value, the earning potential is even better. MHB is in Oil n gas sector while MISC is a shipping conglomerate. But why is EPF want to dispose MISC? EPF boss said they are willing to sell at rm5.5 because the earning is very cyclical and their ability to pay dividen is doubtful, they hv been selling other shipping stock Maybulk also. EPF more willing to park their money in stocks that has brighter potential and can give steady return to them. Lets hope one day they will be keen to look into MHB and buy into it like they did for SKPetro. Then MHB will regain its glory.
Hey guys, respect HSI, Nikkei, STI and ASX. Didn't you all see HSI, STI and ASX has broken 200 days moving average? Now waiting for S&P to break 50 days MA to trigger global sell down. This is a norm for of fund managers tactic... Hold US to sell Europe and Asia shares.
Still buy? Risk is too high compare to potential return. Unless HSI and STI climb above 200 days MA again, I am not buying and will only short selling.
Malaysia KLSE always the last index to down in Asia. Reason because we got capital control and foreign fund harder to transfer fund outside Malaysia. KLSE has been stuck in the range since 6 May... You think will break out at this kind of market condition?
Didn't you all realize, a lot of shares with high volume has form top and stuck a lot of retailers? TH heavy, Benalec, Scomi, Iskandar related counters, etc... Penny even worst... Downside risk is way too high. My advise is sell...
I predict KLSE will cover the gap due to after election surge at 80% confidant. If I am wrong, I buy high later... is ok with me, and I feel more safe.
My last trade was Scomi.. Buy at 0.430 & 0.435 and sold at 0.445 as I sense it should be false break out.
Try to keep more cash on hand, global market is not good. The bad of Malaysia investors is their bias is UP because they only can make profit if shares go up.
what a technical analysis on MHB, i am totally agree wth the analysis posted by Mr YEE, that is what i feel trading the MHB, when it is down, the vol is very small, a lot of selling are actually sell to accumulate, don't be fooled by the big vol thrown to the buyer, they are actually hitting themselves, by hitting heavily to the big vol buyer, they actually try to project a image there are big sell orders follow, this is done to scare of potential buyer, so that when seller surface they will clear it. The weak external environment provide a good time for the fund to accumulate in close range. Sign of buying is very clear. Once they clear this level of seller, this stock can resume its upward momentum. Any sudden drop with vol provide very good opportunity to grab. See you at rm4
Yup,... People very funny one... See people sell down 1m shares think sellers are strong. Buyers didn't withdraw and let it throw so is equally strong. But, qqq... if global market crash, no matter what shares also die. 2 possible scenario. Try to draw a reverse head and shoulder chart or form double bottom. We shall see...
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
sephiroth
14,145 posts
Posted by sephiroth > 2013-06-07 15:01 | Report Abuse
2nd chance to collect cheap, how cheap 3.10?