Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-10 18:28 | Report Abuse

today i so happy with our hero can tahan the share price from falling below 1.50.
therefore, i will go to sun complex and celebrate the october fest for his achievement

Long live our i3 investor HERO.

Posted by nordimohd > 2014-10-10 19:23 | Report Abuse

jolie2,
be careful booming like yesterday...

Posted by nordimohd > 2014-10-10 19:26 | Report Abuse

sunztzhe,
tq for sharing..

Posted by Joeylee > 2014-10-10 19:55 | Report Abuse

I already post up my view. Check it up for KPS.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-10 21:43 | Report Abuse

nordimohd, Thanks for your kind words. I hope the article will give one a fresh macro perspective onto future potential funds flow

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-10 21:54 | Report Abuse

Joeylee, FA for KPS will improve further with time and this will impact on future TA readings. I rely on TA mainly on trend direction, support levels and resistance levels. I concur with hng33 views on KPS fundamentals and its future fundamentals will improve considerably. In view of this KPS improving FA will determine future TA price direction. KPS will consolidate for a while but with improving FA, the Price trend will be UP.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-10-10 21:55 | Report Abuse

Very good

Calvin always take inspiration from KPS

In the deep depth of despair I bought KPS at 42 cents. It was in a time like this when there was panic and fear that true bargain emerges

What nostalgic memory

Posted by Wee Shiong Cheong > 2014-10-10 21:59 | Report Abuse

for those panic and no holding power u r all welcome sell all ur KPS shares, my plessure

Posted by nordimohd > 2014-10-10 22:20 | Report Abuse

sunztzhe,
look like side way to bearish bias...n i just observing form outside,let it compete with the rest in my radar screen for best ranking buying in

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=m50%2Cm200%2Cb&a=r14%2Cw14%2Cm26-12-9&c=&s=5843.KL%2C+&ql=1

n u may want to consider the rest of the construction companies in line with y2015 budget....total cost approx rm75.25bil...as follows :

part of the 2015 budget summary :
the real goodies for gadang ???
(http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/10/10/Budget-2014-Highlights/?style=biz)

Infrastructure projects

In 2015, several infrastructure projects will be implemented:

First: Construction of the 59-km Sungai Besi – Ulu Klang Expressway (SUKE) at a total construction cost of RM5.3bil;

Second: Construction of the 276-km West Coast Expressway from Taiping to Banting at a total construction cost of RM5bil;

Third: Construction of the 47-km Damansara – Shah Alam Highway (DASH) at a total construction cost of RM4.2bil;

Fourth: Construction of the 36-km Eastern Klang Valley Expressway (EKVE) at a total construction cost of RM1.6bil;

Fifth: Upgrading the East Coast railway line along Gemas - Mentakab, Jerantut - Sungai Yu and Gua Musang - Tumpat with an allocation of RM150mil;

Sixth: Construction of the 56-km Second MRT Line from Selayang to Putrajaya at an estimated cost of RM23bil; and

Seventh: LRT 3 Project, which will link Bandar Utama to Shah Alam and Klang, at an estimated cost of RM9 billion, will be implemented.

The Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex project with a total investment of RM69 billion is expected to create more than 10,000 job opportunities.
Additionally, to develop the electric vehicle manufacturing industry in Malaysia, a Sustainable Mobility Fund of RM70mil will be established under SME Bank. Initially, 50 electric buses will be introduced.

Pan-Borneo Highway

As the North-South Highway project has transformed the development from Perlis to Johor, the Government intends to start construction of the 1,663-km Pan-Borneo Highway comprising 936 km in Sarawak and 727 km in Sabah at a total construction cost of RM27bil.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-10 22:22 | Report Abuse

nordimohd,
There will be a mid term election in USA on Nov 4, 2014.

The Dow in 64 Octobers since 1950 had been up 38 times(59%) and down 26 times(41%)and October month in USA is a "BEAR KILLER". This year being mid term election year October is particularly MORE BULLISH SINCE 1950. In the past 16 mid term elections in USA, the DJI rose 3.4% versus its 64 year average of 0.51% and The S&P rose 3.4% versus its 64 year average of 0.8%.

So based on past statistically significant evidence , October is an advantageous time to BUY ON WEAKNESS as the BEAR WILL BE KILLED IN OCTOBER 2014 and IT WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A BULL MARKET!

Posted by nordimohd > 2014-10-10 22:47 | Report Abuse

sunztzhe,
TQ for sharing....

n following is my 2 cent view on the potential KLCI way forward by looking at its component stocks after mkt close today ....

probably klci likely to rebound next week cause currently too over sold... I checked the klci components (all total 30 counters), 12 counters are already in bullish condition and 2 counters in the entry to bullish cycle n the rest just either over sold or on the way down....so a total 14 counters (about half of klci components) are on the way up ranging form a mater of days, weeks to months...so my conclusion klci....

1. worst case, side ways till year end...
2. likely case, up swing but with minimal gain probably between 70 to 120 points....
3. best case, klci add another 120 to 200 points by year end...

note :
following are in bullish condition;
1. AXIATA
2. DIGI
3. TM
4. YTL
5.YTLPOWER
6. MAYBANK
7. IOICORP
8. RHBCAP
9. HLBANK
10.PPB
11.HLFG
12.TENAGA

at entry the bullish cycle;
1. SIME
2.CIMB

that just my 2 cent opinion n good luck

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-10 22:50 | Report Abuse

nordimohd, Big Caps has limitations and uptrend is slow. Mid caps and small caps had corrected significantly and those with good fundamentals will move up.

Posted by Roger123 > 2014-10-10 23:39 | Report Abuse

Joeylee: I just review ur graph......

Posted by Roger123 > 2014-10-10 23:39 | Report Abuse

I dont think u r keen in TA. Sorry to say

Posted by Roger123 > 2014-10-10 23:41 | Report Abuse

I must agree that Hng33 is right but enter at the wrong timing. The best time to enter is 1.38-1.42

Posted by Roger123 > 2014-10-10 23:43 | Report Abuse

Sold puncak and bought kps may be a wrong move... shift from defensive stock to uncertainty stock is a big mistake

Posted by Roger123 > 2014-10-10 23:48 | Report Abuse

Hng33: Something is happening to Pck soon.... shouldnt sell it. The recent selldown has proven it

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-11 00:59 | Report Abuse

Its still in the initial stage, will keep accumulating KPS on weakness. We should see the impact once there is further progress with new MB in either signing definitive agreement or on splash valuation.

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-11 08:01 | Report Abuse

this new MB looks like no experience but have to face with so many issues ( salary issue, water issue, october fest issue, sampah issue,...) . still under probation period for 100 days. Once reach 100 days , maybe kong he fatt choy (feb 15) , then only confirmed on his post.

After complete confirmation period , he can tunjuk his belang and transformed into Khalid 2. Last time , khalid also like that. Very good in the 1st term. 2nd term become pkr to BN.

Then only show started and you can accumulate the stock. By that time, maybe the price already drop to 1.20

Now the new MB is only kucing. Wait for him to turn into harimau

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-11 08:12 | Report Abuse

now the new MB is so naive. He want to bocor the sign agreement document with FED to let everybody see and read it.
do you think the Fed like it ? more complex story coming out , Very susah for kps to turn from downtrend to uptrend. The bear is stronger than the bull.

Posted by nordimohd > 2014-10-11 11:01 | Report Abuse

jolie2,
just sharing my 2 cent opinion make portfolio ranking n may be pick top 3 stocks for yr investment...not to just focus on single stock...n in my radar screen ranking KPS is number 9 (just observing form outside till it goes up to at least no 3 only considering buying)

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-11 11:32 | Report Abuse

Good, if all potential buyer keep stay sideline, supply outpace demand, higher chance for KPS to go lower, then, give more opportunity to buy at lower price further :)

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-11 16:04 | Report Abuse

listen to this 2 legs cat. sometimes this cat makes sense.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/panlaibolo/61531.jsp

Posted by samsoongyc > 2014-10-11 18:09 | Report Abuse

Cmon... u know the stock has no potential u don't avg down....u don't buy instead !!!! Universal rule nos 1 use common sense ......I make a lot by avg down hahaha .

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-11 18:37 | Report Abuse

read this.
The end of QE3 will probably cause the D.J in a longer bear-mode than QE1 and QE2. Therefore, how much you can average it down ? Good luck .

http://gorengaddict.blogspot.com/2014/10/why-stock-market-dropped.html

Posted by samsoongyc > 2014-10-11 19:09 | Report Abuse

Common sense my fren I bought at 1.60 then say drop say 1.35 then I don't avg down !!! But I can afford to buy more....

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-11 22:42 | Report Abuse

Whether need to average down or not for particular stock depending on its intrinsic value, earning and future potential. If the stock is penny stock, record negative earning, trade below NTA, non-dividend, involve in loss making business, cyclical business or sunset business, then it is highly advisable to either cut loss, never averaging down or hold till recovery to mitigate loss.

However, if is investment grade stock, then of course it could based on individual risk profile, either opt to averaging down to accumulate more on weakness or hold for longer term while entitle for recurring dividend income. These strategy only applicable for those value driven investor.

In the case, refer to KPS, it deliver fairly consistent earning, trade at undemanding valuation of PE <8x, payout recurring 4-6 dividend and the most important is its business is water concession which is recession proof. KPS water business is through 91% stake in Abbass and 30% stake in splash. The gross profit margin is very high, range from 65% (PKNS, Abbass) to 80% (splash) !!

Nevertheless, KPS may no longer involve in these highly lucrative water concession due to State government intention to restructuring water concession and to avoid potential adverse impact cause by numerous ongoing court case due to state refusal to grant water traffic hike back in 2008.

Under ex-MB, Khalid have proposed to take over all concession that began back in 2009 for total RM 9.218bi, in which under the take over offer, State have offer based on water concession 1x Net book value, offering

1. Splash: RM 2.975 billion, consist of equity RM 1.56bil + assume water assets for RM 1.41 bil)

2. Puncak: RM 5.297 bil consist of PKNS RM 1.936b, 70% Syabas 3.36bil

3. Abbass: RM 946m

Under the deal, both splash and Abbass accepted the offer, but Puncak reject.

Subsequently in 2010, Gamuda through its 40% stake in splash make offer to take over all concession for total RM 10.78bil (increase additional compensation RM 782m for syabas and RM 750m for splash operate and Maintenance unit) and promise to only have water traffic hike maximum 9% for every 3 year to keep in par with inflation rate and target to reduce non revenue water in 5 year to reach 15%.

Under the deal, both splash and Abbass accepted the offer, but again Puncak reject.

However, after 3 year, in 2013, ex-MB, Khalid again offering even slightly lower offer at RM 8.99bil, but if include state own 30% stake in syabas, total offer is RM 9.65 billion, but these time, Khalid revise the offer term to based on 12% ROE instead of 1x net book value, resulting the offer become like these,

1. Splash: RM 1.8346 billion, consist of equity RM 250.6m + assume water assets for RM 1.584 bil)

2. Puncak: RM 6.155 bil consist of PKNS RM 2.936b, 70% Syabas 3.23bil

3. Abbass: RM 998m

4. State own 30% syabas: RM 662m

Under these current deal, both Puncak and Abbass accepted the offer, but splash reject.

State adopt ROE 12% instead of apply 1 x net book value to acquire water concession, resulting the valuation tag for splash become 0.1x of its latest net book value RM 2.50bilion (account up to Dec 2013), Puncak unit PKNS value at 1.3x of its net book value, Abbass at 0.9x net book value, Syabas value at manifold due to its negative book value.

But, Ex-Khalid insist to move ahead by signing both MOU and HOA with Fed gov and exclude splash, to consolidate first Puncak (PKNS, syabas) and Abbass, but will continue to pursue right offer price for splash under second phase water restructuring. It is generally believe that current water deal favor Puncak (pro-UMMO) instead of splash (pro-PKR), is one of the main reason PKR outed Khalid.

Now, Khalid have outed successfully, Azmi replace as new MB, although is not hand pick Anwar wife Wan Azizah, but Azmi still is PKR deputy President, and he has pressure Fed gov to openly disclose present water deal which favor Puncak and Syabas.

In the meantime, Gmauda as major shareholder of splash, through its latest financial result, has commented that it will re initiate splash deal with new state gov in order to reach win-win solution.

As shown above, KPS 91% Abbass value seem relatively unaffected either previous offer 2009, Gamuda offer 2010 or latest offer 2013, all value about the same. If Abbass deal is materialize, it will essentially free of debt (all water debt will be assume by PAAB), and entitle about RM 78 m in net cash on top of its exiting cash hoard of about RM 185m. KPS balance sheet will be in net cash of RM 263m or 53sen/share. The great thing is even KPS divest its 91% Abbass, its financial earning will largely unaffected. This is because, current KPS earning mostly derive from its 30% stake in splash, as its Abbass profit is almost offset by its interest cost bearing from water asset debt. By divest Abbass, KPS will continue derive steady earning from splash while turning KPS balance sheet from debt laden into net cash position

Posted by Joeylee > 2014-10-11 23:09 | Report Abuse

Jolie 2. I already post my analysis for KNM.. Check it out.

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-11 23:37 | Report Abuse

my common sense of investment is

"don't greedy in the bear market
but can greedy in the bull market"

Posted by samsoongyc > 2014-10-12 00:40 | Report Abuse

Whatever... when u make money u r always right !!!!

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-12 07:58 | Report Abuse

dam level
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/10/11/Water-level-at-dam-hits-40-Capacity-reached-after-nearly-five-months/

Posted by samsoongyc > 2014-10-12 08:54 | Report Abuse

Wow...hng33 u really know KPS inside out . Tq for info

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-12 09:12 | Report Abuse

old story make me feel older and older.
later hng 33 sure delete the post b'cos he afraid he will lost the HERO award.

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-12 09:29 | Report Abuse

let me speculate some new story

after khalid left his MB post, now he stay inside the cave to rest for a while. Once come out from the cave, maybe during chinese new year 2015, the Fed will appoint him as a negotiator in this water issue and deal with the state b'cos he know the inside-out of the state administration. Then the Fed job will be must easier now.

Once Khalid appear, then you all start buy the kps share.
khalid has not "died" yet . He is just hibernate for a while.

Khalid said " I will be back " ....... Khalid "the terminator " part 2

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-12 09:49 | Report Abuse

Does Malaysia really lack talented , competent and younger people who are just as capable or if not more capable than Khalid in finalizing the water deal? Does Malaysia really lack such younger people with talents or is this just a subjective perception to the beholder only?

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-12 09:54 | Report Abuse

the fed said
" you need a thief to catch a thief"

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-12 09:58 | Report Abuse

Does Malaysia really lack talented , competent and younger people who are just as capable or if not more capable than Khalid in finalizing the water deal? Under Khalid the water deal had dragged on for years where the rakyat were pawned and used as pawns and is this the example of leadership that the nation want is resolving a critical resource issue that affects the daily living, livelihood and growth of industries in Selangor and GDP of Malaysia?

Does Malaysia really lack such younger people with talents or is this just a subjective perception to the beholder only? Wouldn't you agree that it is high time that more and more younger people assumes more responsibilities and leadership roles for the betterment of the State and Country?

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-12 09:58 | Report Abuse

with the current anwar sodomized court case, this water issue will drag longer.

all the negative ingredients. No catalyst for kps to change his trend.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-12 10:03 | Report Abuse

If you continue subscribe to this mindset and do nothing about the mindset that you subscribe to then it shall be so as you had already accepted and decided that that is so and there shall be no change.

Posted by nordimohd > 2014-10-12 11:35 | Report Abuse

tq guys for sharing all the nice stories....yes one fine day kps will move n the chart will show that..... after last 2 small up cycle now it stays under the barish tone....let see n wait when kps will cross to the bull side for weeks to come...relax not to worry much on bskl current down turn.....our most kind of numbers i.e gdp etc are fair to good...n bskl just small mkt n just following the major global trend...since SnP closed at 1906 n has almost reach the 200days moving average likely the overall mkt will rebound in the coming weeks.....but not neccessary kps....so if u are long term 2 to 3 years player may be this is golden opertunity to buy and keep for 2 to 3 years...n guy like me looking for short term excitement within few months let wait till the chart show clear bullish way forward before jump to the moving train while enjoying the current bullet train ride...
my opinion based on chart, my pick the hopeful moving train in near future within 2 to 3 weeks would be farmbes, farmbes-wb n panpage...good luck.....

kps may take 1 to 2 months to cross to bullish side....let wait n see...

Posted by Joeylee > 2014-10-12 13:03 | Report Abuse

Jolie2 my time is at next year 2nd quarter.

Posted by arvin6 > 2014-10-12 23:07 | Report Abuse

Yes joeylee this kps really useless once buy more then drop more ... Give up n c other potential share .. Useless kps

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-13 11:00 | Report Abuse

hng 33...

1.49 already. Faster- faster grab the knife. Average down further. I really admire our HERO

Posted by Superb99 > 2014-10-13 11:58 | Report Abuse

market is moving downwards, take time to recover

Posted by Roger123 > 2014-10-13 14:51 | Report Abuse

Going to drop more...

Posted by Roger123 > 2014-10-13 14:51 | Report Abuse

1.42 my target

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-13 16:26 | Report Abuse

Hope can get KPS at 1.47

Posted by sudahkena > 2014-10-13 16:27 | Report Abuse

Hope 1.45

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-13 16:28 | Report Abuse

Just bought KPS at 1.47

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-13 16:29 | Report Abuse

Another batch q at 1.45