Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-17 09:38 | Report Abuse

yellen say or not say about the QE, market will continue drop.
This is bcos market always predict it first before the things really happen.

The market is always the leading indicator.

Just like the 2008 crash. The market already showing downtrend since 2007 due to the housing issue before the real crash.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-17 09:40 | Report Abuse

Joeylee, Use Fibonacci readings. 23.6% retracement support is at 1,758. KLCI did not touched this support level. Lowest was 1767.77. Use basic chart info for decision making , not complicated readings.

Posted by Joeylee > 2014-10-17 09:44 | Report Abuse

This is under normal correction, fibonanci can be used. Refer to my post.

Posted by Joeylee > 2014-10-17 09:58 | Report Abuse

Breakout level cannot be used. Like gold I also anticipated in when gold was in the TOP. I predicted it is going down last two years. I also enjoy shorting gold.

Posted by Joeylee > 2014-10-17 10:02 | Report Abuse

Intermeadiate wave Black 1 not yet completed. Blue minor wave can be seen clearly already.

Posted by Joeylee > 2014-10-17 10:17 | Report Abuse

Now this postion is at yearly low position. Pull back on tuesday up to friday. Then moves down continously. Imagine this month not yet complete already have this kind of movement. How about next month ? Still can scalp some in this down trend... Best time is to scalp when the black 1 is complete.. Any stock idea in your mind ? I will analyze and post it.

Posted by arvin6 > 2014-10-17 10:20 | Report Abuse

Is time to buy gamuda . Get mrt project n the water deal may take over by federal government . The deal sure can done . No wsia . New Offer price will highest than ex MB . .

Posted by Joeylee > 2014-10-17 10:24 | Report Abuse

1300 ? Stock market only exist in the complex form. From here.. 1000 as what I suspected.

Posted by wiwangwang > 2014-10-17 10:34 | Report Abuse

I think if federal government take over the water restructuring plan is much Better . Because our new sel MB busy with revenge the ex MB . .

Posted by samsoongyc > 2014-10-17 10:49 | Report Abuse

What the shit.......Pls come back to KPS....All this doomsday scenario if market crash so be it . My only real worries is ebola n isil .

Posted by samsoongyc > 2014-10-17 11:00 | Report Abuse

Agreed.......wiwangwang

Posted by jinny > 2014-10-17 11:08 | Report Abuse

Up 2cent attracting ppl buy . Then drop to 90cent..

Posted by samsoongyc > 2014-10-17 11:25 | Report Abuse

I think drop 0.45 better jinny wouldn't u agree...

Posted by samsoongyc > 2014-10-17 11:26 | Report Abuse

Drop to 0.45

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-17 12:17 | Report Abuse

I think if you are Selangorean, perhaps can wait little longer, State gov intend to distribute free share either through KPS or new corp to all resident.

Posted by jinny > 2014-10-17 13:51 | Report Abuse

Haha if really drop to 0.45cent ..that mean I lost 50% of my capital .. Die lo .. Better don't buy kps .?

Posted by Superb99 > 2014-10-17 14:42 | Report Abuse

....impossible

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-17 16:04 | Report Abuse

other stock rebound 10 cents, this stock rebound 1 cent.
Take money and go to other stock better. Lost opportunities.

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-18 16:24 | Report Abuse

another bad news for the water sector. This rainy days cause water usage low . Probably people take less bath due to cold weather or less wash car due to the rain. May see a drop in profit next quarter .

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/10/18/Klang-Valley-folks-using-lesser-water-Syabas-figures-show-that-average-daily-consumption-has-dipped/

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-18 16:38 | Report Abuse

a post-plunge rally on friday may be followed by a fresh sell-off on monday. If dip buyers get repeatedly get burned, they will stop doing so. And that;s when the market pullback could build steam Then we may see a 20% or more pull back. The bear market will start then and the price getting lower and lower . KPS will head to 1.00 soon.

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-18 16:51 | Report Abuse

The current take offer price for water treatment plant and their respective treated water capacity in milion litre per day (MLD)

1. Splash treated water capacity: 2000 MLD
Splash control by Gamuda 40%; KPS 30%: Sweet Water Alliance, Wan Azmi: 30%

(a). Take over equity price now: RM 250.6m
(total assets and liab: 1.84 bil)

(b). Take offer price in 2009: RM 1.56 bil
(total assets and liab: 2.98 bil)


2. PNSB treated water capacity: 1900 MLD
Wholly own by Puncak

(a). Take offer equity price now: RM 1.18 bil
(total assets and liab: 2.91 bil)

(b). Take offer price in 2009: RM 620m
(total assets and liab: 1.936 bil)


3. Abbas treated water capacity: 530 MLD
KPS control 91%

(a). Take offer price now: RM 99m
(total assets and liab: 990m)

(b). Take offer price in 2009: RM 125m
(total assets and liab: 946m)


4. Langat 2 project, Selangor portion cost RM 3.6bil for water treatment plant under phase 1, to build 2 water treatment plant, each 565 MLD capacity, total 1130 MLD. If take into account cost of construction to build 44.6km tunnel link Pahang to Selangor and construction dam in Pahang at cost RM 5.05 bil, then, total Langat 2 project cost is RM 8.65 bil.

(a) Capacity: 1130 MLD (phase 1, ready by 2017
(b) Capacity: 760 MLD (phase 2, cost pending til after phase 1 completion)

Total langat 2 treated water capacity is just 1890 MLD.


Remark: Langat 2 total cost RM 8.65 bil is 4.7x more expensive than to acquire splash for just RM 1.84 bil or if exclude tunnel/Pahang cost, court only two new water treatment plant, each 565 MLD capacity, cost RM 3.6 bil is still almost 2 x higher than splash and yet the total treated water capacity is just 0.57x than splash

Langat 2, phases 1, capacity 1130 MLD vs. Splash capacity 2000 MLD

What i like to highlight here is that water treated from Langat 2 will be very expensive, even with leaseback for 45 year, it need to cover cost of construction either just from 2 new water treatment plant in selangor portion with each 565 MLD only for RM 3.6 bil + perhaps the water traffic also need to cover cost to build 44.6 km tunnel cost + Pahang portion cost + 10x higher raw water payable to Pahang than source from Selangor.

Comparing to existing water concession, they actually can afford to wait little longer if the take over price is no attractive. State rush to take over exiting water concession is try to neutralize partial future water traffic hike impact once the upcoming expensive Langat 2 is ready in 2017.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/azmin-wants-in-black-and-white-why-putrajaya-wont-make-water-deal-public

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/explain-refusal-to-disclose-water-deal-selangor-mb-tells-minister

Posted by lotusf1 > 2014-10-18 16:56 | Report Abuse

How credible is jolies story - going round telling the same n same thing ..i wnder if tis story would help or just making other people nervous..let market proves eithr wrong or right..

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-18 17:08 | Report Abuse

view from the expert

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bob-janjuah-could-see-p-133442500.html

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-18 17:13 | Report Abuse

i have warned that the market will plunge once the 200 days moving average has been crossed. People say i talk coc.&%^&...
It really plunge 20 points on Thursday.

Friday is only dead-cat bounce back. The next plunge will be stronger.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-18 17:41 | Report Abuse

Never ever underestimate the power, financial creativity of the FED in responding at the appropriate time. The FED had just responded n do expect more in the future.

Posted by lotusf1 > 2014-10-18 18:10 | Report Abuse

Yes...a statmnt on policies by.fed james bullwrk was enough to gain confdence from lows,lows of 450 point s to 173 points closed..there onwrds market started rallying on hope fed would not be hurry enough to close off qe3..when dow was on it path trwds 450 ,many became mindless ,clueless as if sky which was red that day..going to fall...Also falling oil prices strted to roll back twrds 80 pluscrecovery n europen ecb readies to act on qE ...

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-18 18:20 | Report Abuse

Preserve capital........... until there is evidence of change in trend, remind yourself that doing nothing is sometimes the best way to preserve capital.
Those who is holding high price before crash are waiting to unload to you.

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-18 18:24 | Report Abuse

These are macroeconomic, US market and monetary easing is deriving force to the global market. It require sophisticate top-down analysis and knowledge encompass gov policy, global demand for commodity, ISIS threat, political turmoil etc, extremely unpredictable as its ever keep changing, different so-call expert have different view at different time to give latest different opinion base on changing stock market situation.

We as retail investor should instead adopt bottom-up analysis, focus on company fundamental as it is more solid information and predictable to some extent.

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-18 18:46 | Report Abuse

lotusf1

Aunty Jolie is trying hard to get KPS at < RM 1.00, so must everyday grumbling in order to tumble KPS share. The only solution is when Aunty Jolie start buy back KPS, then only table turn, different story lor.

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-18 18:58 | Report Abuse

Harry-no-good 33 tried to correct his mistake of buying high and keep on averaging down until no bullet.
This Dirty Harry grumbling everyday also in order to unload his share

After unload , he will show-off and said "Sold at 1.65 " or make statement like " make a handsome contra gain" . Try to show-off how good is him on his trading skill. Self Praise Is No Praise.

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-18 19:22 | Report Abuse

this dirty harry will later delete all his long post to prevent people copy his long research. He taught his research is very good that people want to copy . Self praise is no praise.

Give me free i also don;t want to read. Waste my time.

Posted by jolie2 > 2014-10-19 17:13 | Report Abuse

as long as the oil price war does not end, the market will still in correction mode and turn in bear mode. Oil price will continue drop to USD 70 per barrel soon. Therefore the correction is not over yet. It just a "dead cat bounce"

http://wallstreetonparade.com/2014/10/oil-price-war-throws-the-fed-into-crisis-mode/

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-19 22:12 | Report Abuse

The recent market correction was a re-pricing of risks in a slowing global economy in anticipation of credit tightening by the FED with interest rate increase hence dousing valuation. It is very obvious that any credit tightening measures wont be good for stock valuation. Last Friday, it was not a certainty that QE will end in view of the slowing economy and consequently a de-pricing of risks is already taking place. Rather than predicting a dead cat bounce and waiting for it, I would rather focus on
- will the FED delay tapering as world economy slows, how long will the delay be
- will ECB and Germany QE aggressively.
- will the Euro depreciate to 1.15 to 1.10 USD or even parity with USD as a result of aggressive QE by ECB?
- will Germany's and the European economy rebound with a weakened euro?
- will ebola be contained(the general expectation is it will be)
- will crude oil stabilize at USD 80 - USD 90 per barrel and how would the major producers decide
- if the European economies rebound, what will be the price of crude oil then?
- will China's economy improve

A de-pricing of risk indeed had already happened since last Friday and barring any explosive outbreak of ebola, the stock market will resume its upward climb in Q4 2014 into 2015 if the above scenario pans out gradually.

At this stage, I will long stocks.

Posted by arvin6 > 2014-10-20 09:16 | Report Abuse

Hehe already know this kps . Up few cents to attract ppl come in . Later will drop back to 1.40 .. Gamuda is holding by fund manager so the share price is more stabil .

Posted by joeylee > 2014-10-20 11:26 | Report Abuse

Now the crash view is changing.. Good news.. This quarter bearish is not yet ended.. Next year it will rebounce back .. January is the best time to long .. I would recommend few stocks to long it.. Now not the time. I am hibernating now.. LOL..

Posted by joeylee > 2014-10-20 12:02 | Report Abuse

Let us rejoice.. As expected. Yellen did not mention anything except warning on last friday. On september she mentioned about interest hike, she has no intention to increase the rate, therefore market drops. US QE seems no effect already. Now is waiting ECB QE.. Still have few weeks to launch this milo power booster.

Posted by Wiwangwang > 2014-10-20 12:21 | Report Abuse

I don't understand why federal government already say that if state government don't go to the agreement already sign by Khalid . Federal government will use wsia to take over all the water company . But I think gamuda will accept the offer . . All the company ready for egm . Why kps share holders still willing cheap sell they share . I guess some ppl will laught to buy the cheap share ..don't worry this share sure will go up very soon .

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-20 17:06 | Report Abuse

Wiwangwang

Its a free market, everyone is free to exercise their right to buy or sell their share based on their respective view either optimistic or pessimistic. Even the same person like Aunty Jolie have different target price, >RM 2.00 if want to sell, but target slash 100% to <RM 1.00 if waiting to buy.

Therefore, no need to confuse, relax and be patient if you believe yourself, after all, bear own risk and reward.

Posted by moisking > 2014-10-20 23:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Wiwangwang > 2014-10-21 15:24 | Report Abuse

Now one thing we can confirm is water company like puncak . Kps . Gamuda will not effect by the selangor government . Because the deal is lowest price . Mayb this three company will receive a higher offer . But the construction company like salcon . Mmc .. Will get some trouble because selangor MB will like to open for other to tender the project . Kps share holders now is waiting wind fall durian . .

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-21 15:36 | Report Abuse

What MB dissatisfy is that higher cost to build Langat 2, which just able to produce about half of the splash capacity, and all contract is awarded to Fed hand pick company like Salcon, MMC, but in the end, Selangorean have to pay high price for water treated from Langat 2.

Posted by samsoongyc > 2014-10-21 20:20 | Report Abuse

In that case sel govt would want splash more urgently !!!!

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-21 20:57 | Report Abuse

There are two viable options
- Buy over SPLASH as per 2009 offer(more investment capital for Selangor state), proceed to cut down NRW (Non Revenue Water) from 33% to zero % or
- JV with SPLASH, proceed to cut down NRW from 33% to zero %(less investment capital for Selangor state govt as there is no need to buy over SPLASH)
IF NRW of 33% is controlled and cut down to zero , there will be substantial volume of water saved which will generate immediate incremental revenue and profits. The cost impact will be the incremental cost of pipes etc to cut down NRW from 33% to zero % whereas the benefit will be the profits from water loss by cutting NRW of 33% to zero %. The benefits of sustained profits over the long term will definitely pay for the cost of investment in pipes etc to cut NRW of 33% down to zero %.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-22 08:35 | Report Abuse

Reported on Fri, Jul 5, 2013
Syarikat Bekalan Air Selangor (Syabas) has used state funds meant for reducing water wastage to buy cars and make office repairs, said Selangor Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim.

The MB told the state sitting today that in 2011 the state allocated RM784 million to the water concessionaire to reduce the company's non-revenue water (NRW) rate to 20 percent.

Khalid said Syabas' NRW is at present still at 33 percent despite the funding, and that the concessionaire had only spent 32 percent of the allocation to the effort.

"The rest according to the national audit, was used to purchase cars and make office repairs, that have no connection with NRW reduction," said Khalid.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

The state govt should target cutting down NRW from 33% down to zero % instead of 20% and this should yield substantial incremental revenue and profits to the state on a sustained and long term basis.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-22 10:18 | Report Abuse

SYABAS had stated that in the state of Selangor, NRW is 1,378 MLD (33% of water production); frequency of pipe bursts is high, and therefore a programme of pipe replacement is necessary.

The Langat 2 water treatment plants plan to generate 1,130 MLD (Phase 1) and 760 MLD (Phase 2)

The Langat 2 project will cost Selangor state govt RM 3.6bil for constructing water treatment plants with capacities of 1,130 MLD(Phase 1 with two treatment plants @565 MLD capacity each).

The construction cost to build 44.6km tunnel linking Pahang to Selangor plus constructing the dam in Pahang is estimated at RM 5.05 bil. The total cost of Langat 2 project to generate only 1,130 MLD is RM 8.65 bil( RM 3.6 billion + RM 5.05 billion) . The actual cost may be higher. The water treated from Langat 2 just only for phase 1 with 1,130 MLD(RM 8.65 Billion) will be very expensive for Selangor residents.

Phase 2 water treatment of 760 MLD has not been given and is pending after completion of phase 1 of Langat2 water treatment plants(1,130 MLD capacity plants).If phase 2 costing is costed in, it will be even more expensive for Selangor state residents

The total estimated cost of langat 2 to supply 1,130 MLD of treated water is RM 8.65 Billion whereas SYABAS had stated that the NRW loss is 1,378 MLD (33% of water production).

It was also reported by Gamuda MD Datuk Lin that Investments to reduce non-revenue water from 33% to 20% in Selangor could easily cost over RM1bil.

OBSERVATION: The cost to reduce NRW of 1,378 MLD is much lesser and more cost effective than to spend RM 8.65 Billion to generate 1,130 MLD. NRW Water loss saved means more Profit and Revenue gain for the Selangor state government.

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-22 11:37 | Report Abuse

sunztzhe

Fed gov keen to generate more contract to award their hand pick crony, so that politician and party or to some extent economy can be continue to prosper, more job, more cash flow in market, more demand for building material to build Langat 2. One outstanding consequence is that splash still have 16 year concession, then State gov can take over splash for free. But with Langat 2, all of these water treatment plant only able to return to State after 45 year leaseback. The prolong leaseback period presumably to cover cost from Langat 2

Posted by hng33 > 2014-10-22 11:55 | Report Abuse

sunztzhe

Anyhow, with MOU and HOA been signed between state and Fed gov, current MB unlikely will cancel the deal, after all, it is state gov initiate to restructuring water asset back in 2009. KPS 91% own Abbass + Puncak unit PNSB and 70%% syabas already accept the offer in exchange to build Langat 2 phase 1, and therefore should be proceed as plan to seal deal with definitive agreement.

Splash is excluded in current deal due to pricing issue, it will separately negotiate with both State and Fed gov. New MB may capitalize the fact that splash is largest water producer to either co-manage with state or higher price in exchange with Fed gov Langat 2 under phase 2.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-22 12:05 | Report Abuse

hng33,
SYABAS had stated that NRW is 1,378 MLD (33% of water production) and that means water production in Selangor state is 4,175 MLD and SPLASH produces 2,000 MLD with remaining 16 years concession.

Langat2 Phase 1 plan to supply 1,130 MLD of new water in 2017 to Selangor state whereas Selangor state daily loses 1,378 MLD through NRW. So the NRW of 1,378 MLD is very significant LOSS of Water to POTENTIAL CONSUMERS plus SIGNIFICANT LOST REVENUE, LOST PROFITS & LOST POSITIVE CASH INFLOW FLOW to Selangor State government.

Now that Puncak, Syabas, Abbas had accepted Selangor state government offer, the top priority for the Selangor state government now is to reduce the NRW of 1,378 MLD to zero immediately as this means Increase revenue , Increase profits and Positive cash inflow to Selangor state government. This means immediate job creation in Selangor state in reducing NRW of 1,378 MLD.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-10-22 12:19 | Report Abuse

hng33,
Understand that MOU and HOA for Langat 2 is tied in with the Puncak, Syabas, Abbas deal. Now the deal had already been signed and agreed by both FED and Selangor state government the onus is now on the Selangor state govt to reduce NRW immediately as NRW saved is additional revenue, additional profits to the Selangor state govt.

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2014-10-22 12:20 | Report Abuse

Optimus the dog, i hope you die instead of mr ooi. Karma will get you.