1) Huge asset impairments done due to past diversifications and/or investments. Look into the annual reports and you can see that management is strictly sticking to tin smelting and mining only.
2) Tin prices has rebounded strongly since 2016. With tin prices at 20,000 USD, the tin mining division is thriving and at 2,200 tonnes mined a year with cost of production at RM60,000, this division will comfortably make in excess of RM45 million a year net of tax.
3) While ore purchases are done in USD and sold in USD, there is a natural hedge against foreign exchange gains and/or losses. For mining, costs are in ringgit and the ores are sold between inter-companies to the smelting side, in USD.
So why is MSC incurring huge foreign exchange losses especially when USD surged in 2015 particularly. It has got to do with hedging contracts whereby according to annual report, a 1% increase in USD will diminish profit by 2-3 mil ringgit.
However, these are strictly once offs and it is not operational, rather tied to quarter to quarter fluctuations in the exchange rate, as opposed to recurring losses. In another words, the losses will only occur if the exchange rate has increased say 5% from quarter to quarter and no losses if the USD stayed stagnant quarter to quarter.
With no more asset impairments, tin prices staying strong with balanced market supply and demand, coupled with stabilizing USD to the MYR, MSC is primed to record PAT of 70-80 mil Ringgit for FY2017.
If it isn't apparent enough, the industry environment has normalized enough so much so that the trailing 4 quarters valuation will keep trending down from 13x now to 5x eventually.
By then i guess those who stayed by the sidelines will wonder, why is the second biggest tin producer in the world trading at such cheap valuations?
566700 units sold so far, with the biggest seller being a 201600 units seller. The rest are medium or small fish. I believe the lower production volume is not due to lack of market demand but rather a temporary disruption from their physical shift in operation...same goes to increase in operating cost.
Since most of MSC's raw material is important (Rahman Tin contributes less than half), it is likely that their weak production number is due to them unable to procure sufficient raw material, which I believe, are mostly from Myanmar.
of course puzzling. Guan Chong market cap is double to MSC. Both is refiner. MSC still got own upstream. half year profit same. lower debt and tin shortage years. puzzling lo
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
nokenzo
591 posts
Posted by nokenzo > 2017-07-27 20:57 | Report Abuse
Dr Neoh bought this stock and keep it in his safe. We went to the same market and got the info from him.