Posted by kllady_fidah > 2013-07-01 13:11 | Report Abuse

Sold all tq mr ooi

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-01 14:53 | Report Abuse

aiseh, cannot buy at 76 sen. Can't even buy at 78sen. Just bought more at 79.5 sen. But why did I buy when people asked to sell at 76 sen?

The return I can get from this takeover exercise is 5.16%. But I am still talking about annualized return of a risk-free arbitrage now. Anybody disagree that this is risk-free or almost risk-free now?

The annualized return,if the deal is fully completed in 6 months time will be 10.32%. As this has been some time now. Another 6 months should be a conservative time frame. But if this can be completed in a shorter time of 3 months, annualized return is 20.64%. After that can use the profit to scout for other similar potential deal. Where can get this kind of return with this little risk? My aim of annual return in the stock market is 12-15%. But equity market has a higher risk than this any time. If comparing with bank interest, this return also beats it by a wide margin even though their respectively risk is about the same.

Make sense?

Posted by johndow > 2013-07-01 14:57 | Report Abuse

so what is target price to sell for khsb ?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-01 15:10 | Report Abuse

johndow, it is individual. I am happy to get an annualized return of 10% as it is much better than bank interest rate. Are you?

Posted by johndow > 2013-07-01 15:18 | Report Abuse

maybe i just wait for just a little while ;)

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-01 15:22 | Report Abuse

short term 80c or better, longer term u may want to wait for the egm. after egm (assume nothing new) let's c how kps is doing by then, or other opportunities like adventa, amprop, yeelee etc

Posted by ccdev > 2013-07-01 16:46 | Report Abuse

@kcchongnz u think there is any chance that a 'major' minority would say no because they think the GO price is undervalue (esp after the revalue), like what happen recently with the MISC GO?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-01 17:41 | Report Abuse

Aren't we in a democratic country where the minority has a say, but eventually the majority rules?

If the GO price is really that much below the offer price, won't it be better for all shareholders if the GO doesn't go ahead?

What is the chance of this event occurring?

I do know the recent GO for MISC eventually NO GO, but not sure what the reasons are.

Maybe others can give some opinions on the unlikelihood of the KHSB GO.

Posted by cheah6638 > 2013-07-01 21:14 | Report Abuse

Agree with kcchongnz. Hopefully, its NO GO from the minority interest, especially those who bought at more than RM1.00 long ago. Just look at Tebrau Teguh, offer price RM0.76 per sen, NO GO and price rocketed to more than RM1.50 at one point in time.

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-01 21:20 | Report Abuse

it's 1.7 at one point for tebrau ;D

Posted by cheah6638 > 2013-07-01 21:22 | Report Abuse

Agree with you, iafx. I received the RM0.76 offer and threw it into the dustbin.

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-01 21:30 | Report Abuse

hope during the egm the deal can be "sweeten". mb did mention to consider re-list or inject asset to other investment arm after re-structure. wish us good luck!

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-07-01 21:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by cheah6638 > Jul 1, 2013 09:14 PM | Report Abuse

Agree with kcchongnz. Hopefully, its NO GO from the minority interest, especially those who bought at more than RM1.00 long ago. Just look at Tebrau Teguh, offer price RM0.76 per sen, NO GO and price rocketed to more than RM1.50 at one point in time.

Dear Kcchongnz and all,

There is a chance that this GO will not go through if 90% of minority share holders reject this GO. This GO is valid if 90% of minority share holders accepted this GO.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

To me, if GO cannot go through, it is even better because the value of the land worth > 0.836 as stated in my previous post. According to my information, the value of land is equal to 2.00 per share i.e. 900 million net after deducting total liabilities.

This post is for you information only.

Thank you,
Ooi

Posted by Metta > 2013-07-02 00:21 | Report Abuse

Thanx Mr Ooi, Kcchong n others for your unselfish sharing of invaluable information
on KHSB n KPS. This really enlighten some who may not b in d know .

Thank You

Posted by ccdev > 2013-07-02 04:40 | Report Abuse

"Petronas had failed in its bid to take MISC private as its revised buyout offer of RM5.50 per share (compared with the earlier offer of RM5.30 per share) fell 3.93 per cent short on the stipulated acceptance level of 90 per cent."

Posted by value_man > 2013-07-02 08:07 | Report Abuse

"To me, if GO cannot go through, it is even better because the value of the land worth > 0.836 as stated in my previous post. According to my information, the value of land is equal to 2.00 per share i.e. 900 million net after deducting total liabilities."

Thank you Ooi, I think this makes a lot of sense.

Posted by value_man > 2013-07-02 08:09 | Report Abuse

According to the announcement on Bursa, the RNAV is RM1.47.

KHSB is using RM0.836 to buy net asset worth RM1.47.

That seems like a huge discount :(

Posted by ronnie2u > 2013-07-02 13:46 | Report Abuse

If the Minority says no GO, does that mean the KHSB share will free-fall ?

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-02 14:47 | Report Abuse

The problem is KHSB never make good profit on its asset, most of the time record loss in earning and never pay dividend. No ROA, ROE and DY. Most of the JV with Talam turn down to be failed project. Despite the fact it have RNAV RM 1.47, KHSB management just fail to perform. If privatization didn't go through, certainly price will react negatively.

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-02 14:53 | Report Abuse

price react negative so is kps in that case? :D

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-02 14:57 | Report Abuse

No really, KPS is 100% certain to dispose its stake of 56.6% in KHSB to KDEB for revise offer price at 83.6sen. Due to KDEB trigger take over code, it must later extend these offer price to all minority shareholder, if the offer turn down by monority shareholder, there won't affect KPS at all as it must already complete disposal before 26 July. The disposal is no inter-conditional.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-07-02 15:04 | Report Abuse

The business model of KHSB and Prkcorp is almost the same, Prkcorp can perform so well, cannot understand why KHSB cannot perform. It is the management of KHSB to be blamed.

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-02 15:06 | Report Abuse

well, if u r kdeb, would u still pay kps should u knew no go for khsb? another thing is checkout the condition clause in the spa, have this deal enter un-condition state yet? :)

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-02 15:08 | Report Abuse

That why, KPS have ask revise offer price from KDEB to make KHSB more attractive to entice minority shareholder to let go their stake to KDEB.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-02 15:10 | Report Abuse

The main reason KDEB to take over KHSB from KPS is that it want to inject more assets and land from state own and PKNS to be all consolidate under KHSB.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-02 15:14 | Report Abuse

Another possible reason is to lighten financial burden of KPS by absorbing all outstanding intercompany debt, outstanding indemnity, corporate guarantee. By transferring these liability from KPS to KDEB, it will turn KPS into light assets investment vehicle.

Posted by cheah6638 > 2013-07-02 18:57 | Report Abuse

Let the minority shareholders decide.

Posted by ronnie2u > 2013-07-03 10:52 | Report Abuse

KPS flying upwards... KHSB still static

Posted by FattyDragon > 2013-07-03 11:08 | Report Abuse

This must be it

http://www.malaysiandigest.com/news/36-local2/387402-selangor-gets-nod-to-take-over-water-supply.html

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-03 11:40 | Report Abuse

That why last week, i'm proposed to swap KHSB to KPS for better upside potential

Posted by member41 > 2013-07-03 11:43 | Report Abuse

80.5 sell or wait till last day? 3.1sen more

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-03 11:44 | Report Abuse

sell half? buy back 78.5c? yr $ yr choice!

Posted by member41 > 2013-07-03 11:48 | Report Abuse

Good idea iafx... during the long wait it tend to dip a bit

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-03 11:56 | Report Abuse

Posted by member41 > Jul 3, 2013 11:43 AM | Report Abuse
80.5 sell or wait till last day? 3.1sen more

If you wait for the conclusion of the takeover, you gain another 3.1 sen, or 3.9%. This return is almost like risk-free now. It is better than if you keep in bank for one year.

But I think it may take another 6 months to complete everything. so your annualized return would be 7.8%, more than double you can get from bank deposit.

What if it can be completed in 3 months? Your annualized return would be 15.6%, not bad indeed for a risk-free investment.

So it is really up to you. I am just offering an alternative opinion for you to consider. For example if you have no more money to invest and you want to buy KPS, or Punchak or whatever as advised by some others, you may have to sell in order to get the fund for investing.

But if you have additional money to invest, do you really have to sell?

Posted by johndow > 2013-07-03 12:04 | Report Abuse

thanks for the info kcchongnz :)

Posted by member41 > 2013-07-03 12:10 | Report Abuse

thanks for insight kcchongnz.. we don't know how long it take to completion...

Posted by cheah6638 > 2013-07-03 22:36 | Report Abuse

Let the minority shareholders decide, whether GO or NO go.

Posted by ronnie2u > 2013-07-04 07:31 | Report Abuse

What would be a Fair Value for Minority shareholders ?

Posted by nightrader > 2013-07-04 07:36 | Report Abuse

RNAV at Rm1.47 why only RM0.836?

Posted by ronnie2u > 2013-07-04 07:38 | Report Abuse

But their Financial figures is like sh*t

Posted by Yurnero(Jerry) > 2013-07-04 08:12 | Report Abuse

who cares? People will buy

Posted by member41 > 2013-07-04 08:47 | Report Abuse

I thought march 2013 result start to profit

Posted by ronnie2u > 2013-07-04 08:50 | Report Abuse

When start to profit.... it's taken private by KDEB... that why people buy this stock

Posted by hng33 > 2013-07-04 12:15 | Report Abuse

Share price seldom trade same or above as it RNAV, especially for property stock. RNAV indicate if stock is liquidize by selloff all its asses and return the value to shareholder. Therefore, take over must done at discount to RNAV so that buyer also can reap their investment return

Posted by cheah6638 > 2013-07-04 21:24 | Report Abuse

I doubt the minority shareholders (still holding on to stocks purchased above RM1.00) will okay to RM0.836.

Posted by rembell > 2013-07-08 09:10 | Report Abuse

yes..it crossed 0.80!!

Posted by johndow > 2013-07-08 09:15 | Report Abuse

hihihihi ..

Posted by iQBE189 > 2013-07-08 10:28 | Report Abuse

good!

Posted by Stockman > 2013-08-13 14:14 | Report Abuse

Time to buy more & sell at 0.836 soon :-)

Posted by ronnie2u > 2013-08-13 15:51 | Report Abuse

3.6 sen premium over 80 sen is still a SOLID 4.5%