Posted by Najib Zamry > 2012-10-19 12:23 | Report Abuse

ChongKongHui, why only 20% person making huge profit in the market? because he can see the value of what remaining 80% cannot see. Very simple.

Posted by Najib Zamry > 2012-10-19 12:25 | Report Abuse

and it is always not easy to find the value. Once you find it. Have faith and keep it.

Posted by CH Ooi > 2012-10-19 13:00 | Report Abuse

It is interesting that KFIMA is highly rated and indeed it has a very good long run of continuous >40 months uptrend. But somehow the performance of the company will be translated into price performance and reflected on the price chart or the "KPI". And whatever goes up will finally come down some how.

Technically, KFIMA is currently at the 3 monnths support level of 1.90 and it might rebound to around 2.10. This is the 3rd time at the support level and if it breaks, for those fan, you can catch it at 1.55. The fuel level for KFIMA is low now and high probability that it will break 1.90 support.

Posted by fandi > 2012-10-19 13:15 | Report Abuse

Najib,no good to keep the secret to yourselflah....unless you want to sell fish...ha ha

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-10-19 13:19 | Report Abuse

NZ, Perisai appears to be like "sai" to me.
Why is Perisai not that good an investment as it appears to be?
1. There is this doggy related party transaction a year ago when a MOPU was sold to Perisai at an inflated price of 210m by Garuda, about twice the price of a similar one, on top of another 120m debt carried over to Perisai. If that MOPU is so good, why wouldn’t Nagendren kept it himself?
2. In Perisai’s latest balance sheet, it has a huge total debt of 465m, a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.0. Its net asset backing per share backing is 51 sen per share, giving a high price-to-book value of about 1.9. The asset includes a big chunk in “property plant and equipment” of 653m. An inflated figure, I think, plus a doggy “intangible asset” of 274m. Hence the “real” asset it has is very little.
3. Perisai made 21 m last year, or just 2.8 sen per share which translate to a PE ratio of 34 and a total enterprise value of 35 times EBIT! This is extremely high. In terms of ROE, it was only 6.4%, very low. First two quarters this year, earnings has improved quite substantially to 5.5 sen per share. But it remains to be seen if the full year is as good. Even if it is as good, the result is still not that impressive at all considering its relatively high share price now.
4. Its precarious balance sheet makes Perisai a highly risky investment and hence doesn’t warrant a double digit PE ratio.

Posted by Najib Zamry > 2012-10-19 13:31 | Report Abuse

KC Chong, you are absolutely right. Btw, I just riding on the oil and gas boom and Perisai only forms about 10% of my portfolio. My average cost is RM0.80 and I shall see how it goes.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-10-19 13:45 | Report Abuse

NZ,Is Zhulain a great company? Absolutely.
Zhulian's financial performance, balance sheet and cash flows are absolutely awesome. I did a detail analysis and made a valuation of Zhulian on 27/7/12 when it was 2.17. It has now gone up 27% to 2.75 now. Is it still a good investment at this price? Absolutely in my opinion. My discount free cash flows of owner's earnings using conservative assumption of 8% growth for the next 5 years and 3% thereafter with a discount rate of 10% shows the intrinsic value of Zhulian at 3.40, still another 24% upside. Well done NZ.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-10-19 14:06 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz, your view on perisai as a sai is totally same with me, in fact i rename perisai to peri-sai and put on a folder named ' SHIT ' HAHAHA... no joking!

my reason is very simple if compare to yours, when i look at perisai, it never pay dividend, it is a good as dead already.

Posted by aunloke > 2012-10-19 14:18 | Report Abuse

If kfima breaks its 1.90 support the next support should be 1.80 and not 1.55 which is my 1st entry level more than two years ago. Anyway I'm not concerned of what price it takes even it rebounds to 2.10 I'll still keep it.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-10-19 15:31 | Report Abuse

Fat Cat, with all analysts recommending Perisai, and all the people here praising Perisai, it is hard to find one who has the same opinion as me on Perisai. But I think differently as you do in terms of dividend. Berkshire Hathaway never pay dividend; Microsoft never pay dividends for years until recently. Yet the CAGR of these companies earnings have been persistently >20% for many years. If a company can continue earns much higher ROE than investors can do with the dividends, it is good the company, instead of paying dividends, reinvest in the business and earns more and higher returns. If investors need money to use, just sell off part of the shares which has appreciated because company earns more and more.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-10-19 15:50 | Report Abuse

I could be wrong.. you know.. hahaha

here is my view on Berkshire Hathaway and warren buffett, i would never buy Berkshire Hathaway type of company, in fact it is not a typical business type company, i see it more as a investment fund.

warren buffett is a hypocrite , his Berkshire never pay dividend, but all of the companies he invest in is paying dividend.

But i could not argue on that he is better with the money , he can make more money with it, if you can trust him on handling your money, its fine, but can you trust perisai management?

silverbird... transmile ... hmmm... no thanks :D

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-10-19 16:03 | Report Abuse

NZ, I differ from you about Weida. Profit from operation decreased for fy 2012 ended March 2012, higher material cost of HDPE, contract disputes resulting in impairment loss etc. Low margin (7.6%) and low asset turnover; Low ROE of 10.4% and even that also only achieved with high financial leverage of 2.4 times. I can't tolerate negative cash flows from operations (CFFO) for the last two years, 20m for last year. Why negative CFFO? So called "earnings" tied up in receivables instead of real cash. Can those receivables all be able to collect? I doubt so. Part of it is shown in the "impairment loss" of 5.5 m last year. I think there will be more "impairment loss" to come. Why I think so? I was a civil engineer and have been in construction before. It is a norm. Balance sheet like "sai". Keep on borrowing money (200m now) because no cash mah. Some more need cash to plant oil palm, dabbles in property etc outside its scope of competence. Aren't you too late in these new stuff? What is the market valuation? At 1.61, PE 9 and total enterprise value 11 times EBIT! OMG, I won't even pay half for it! Should you value Weida based on its acreage of palm oil plantation? Go dream lah. Like that every palm oil plantation is highly undervalued already.

Posted by jtpc2006 > 2012-10-19 16:07 | Report Abuse

kcchngnz, can use the weida forum pls? too mixed up here now, thanks.

Posted by pradeep > 2012-10-20 00:09 | Report Abuse

Here a lot of confusion you see Weida, Perisai and Scomi be on the right forum if not everything will become "ROJAK". As regards to Kfima sorry to say davidraja you have not done your home work on Kfima,and you have to be sincere, this is a stock market forum and a lot of people had invested based on fundamental,I am the first guy who recommended this counter as it is fundamentay strong, cash rich and the earning is good.I have to be very straight forward and be very open if not our friends will become confuse.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-22 11:13 | Report Abuse

chart looks good for KFima :)

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-10-22 15:53 | Report Abuse

The other KC, I mean KC Loh, I look at the charts of Kfima but I cannot understand why you said Kfima's chart looks good. Kfima's price at 1.97 now is below is short-term 10, 20, 50 and 100-day MA. The long-term trend appears to be still intact (actually I don't know what I am talking about here). Why ah? I know they are other so-called indicators (or whatever), but they are even more complicated. So I hope you can explain in the simpler MA terms.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-22 15:54 | Report Abuse

i am never a TA guy! LOL

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-22 15:56 | Report Abuse

this morning i see climb above the oversold position and then the RSI is climbing also. momentum?

FYI, I also dunno what i am talking about! LOL

Posted by tonylim > 2012-10-22 15:57 | Report Abuse

lol, pure white

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-10-22 17:48 | Report Abuse

KC Loh, RSI? What is it? Momentum? =Mass * Velocity? Not sure what is it. thanks anyway. You are really an expert of TA man! Can help me on the below or not? Thanks first.
"kfima rises after a period of re-accumulation is a bullish sign. Nevertheless, fulcrum characteristics are not yet clearly present and a resistance area exists 20 sen higher for Kfima, so it is clearly premature to say the next up leg of Kfima. If, in coming weeks, a test of the lows holds and Kfima breaks out of its flag, a further rise would be indicated. Should the lows be violated, a continuation of the intermediate term downtrend is called for. In view of the current situation, it is a distinct possibility that traders will sit in the wings awaiting a clearer delineation of the trend and Kfima will move in a narrow trading range."
Please help me lah. I read and read 20 times already, not understand. I thought it means "if kfima does not go up or go down, it will remain unchanged". But I am really confused. If kfima does not go up, and it doesn't go down, then of course it will remain unchanged mah. WTF!

Posted by chongkonghui > 2012-10-22 17:52 | Report Abuse

For some TA comments, talk = no talk.

Let's based on FA.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-22 17:55 | Report Abuse

it means, if itchy scratch it. if not, dont scratch!

if the lower itch is violated, scratch less and if the higher itch comes, scratch more! if not sure, wait doctor scratch! in short, follow momentum! haiyah... so simple also dunno! :)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-22 17:57 | Report Abuse

Hey, technically you got it! :)

Momentum? =Mass * Velocity

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-10-22 17:59 | Report Abuse

aiyah, you KC Loh ah, ask you to help explain to me, and you make me laugh until rolling on the ground, Hopeless you!

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-22 18:03 | Report Abuse

but its true what! momentum play needs volume and velocity to play! if not TA fellas won't come in! That's why clever TA players usually are short term play, whereas FA people like you will wait for the glaciers to move!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-10-22 18:17 | Report Abuse

Hey KC Loh, tell you what. Come to touch our glaciers, the Fox Glacier and Franz Josep Glacier. Just walk an hour to them. Not need to wait for them to move one.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-22 18:19 | Report Abuse

those are surfing glaciers i bet! its an anomaly and doesn't count just like the TA writer above!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-10-22 18:45 | Report Abuse

I actually went to touch the Franz Josep glacier last year. I though they are "real" glacier because I did not take a boat out to the sea to touch it. But anyway, glaciers are glaciers. But Is Kumpulan Fima a glacier which refuse to move?
About two years ago, it was trading at about RM1.00 and now it is RM1.96. With all the dividends included, the return is closed to 100%. I can think of another “glacier” which many people will avoid, Pintaras Jaya. It was about RM1.60 then and now it is 3.13. With the dividends included, investors made a return of 120%. Note that though their share prices have moved up considerably, their fundamentals have also improved drastically since then. Can you positively tell me that you can make that kind of return from trading with Mass*Velocity, I mean consistently in your overall return? Yeah, of course you may, but then you probably will the top 5%. The bottom 10% would have lost 90% of their money. Note the later is quoted from an academic research.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-22 18:53 | Report Abuse

i think the right person to ask is Fat Cat Tim Buddy. he seems quite good in answering all matters of TA from my observation. Just don't leave him your email address :)

the only thing i understand about Mass*Velocity is Sumo wrestling!

Posted by chongkonghui > 2012-11-02 13:51 | Report Abuse

Wow.... slowly going to 1.90..... to buy more?

Posted by aunloke > 2012-11-02 14:24 | Report Abuse

If the management know how to use the cash ( I'm sure they know ) to invest in one profitable entity its earning can easily increase by 20%-30% and hence the share price will improve.

Posted by Dylan Wong Ls > 2012-11-08 15:27 | Report Abuse

What happened to this counter? The downtrend is unstoppable!

Posted by JimYeoh > 2012-11-08 15:35 | Report Abuse

Good price indeed..

Posted by Yuzuki > 2012-11-08 15:41 | Report Abuse

lol hehehehe TA chart like Mt Kinabalu

Posted by Smile > 2012-11-08 15:50 | Report Abuse

why share price keep drop?

Posted by Yuzuki > 2012-11-08 16:00 | Report Abuse

this is a BFF counter hehehe

Posted by wooming > 2012-11-08 16:18 | Report Abuse

today esos 143,000 share

Posted by DaveSingh > 2012-11-08 17:15 | Report Abuse

BUY BUY BUY KFIMA.. very good books.. financial great.. buy when down....

Posted by gark > 2012-11-08 18:06 | Report Abuse

A singh.. this one I agree with you :P But still no Gas Malaysia for me :D

Posted by DaveSingh > 2012-11-08 18:09 | Report Abuse

hmmm@gark...good.. share is a gem but will go down i am buying this one... its going down cos the ESOS employees are selling and some fund mamagers letting go.. OSK UOB loves this stock... but i will support it... furthermore... you are not seigark like seipark...u are smart gark...even if u dont agree with my gas malaysia

Posted by fandi > 2012-11-09 15:15 | Report Abuse

Najib, after selling my Digi at 5.08 last week, now can I collect more KFima?

Posted by tuniamasingh > 2012-11-09 15:44 | Report Abuse

Ha ha Lexy Partner should aim for Kfima too...

(1)trading at p/e 6
(2) trading at huge discount below NTA 2.20 and what's more
(3) they will pay at least 10 sen per share(tax exempt dividend) that translate to 5.4% yield for this year as mentioned in the AGM.
(4) RM500 million net cash or RM1.10 cash per share.

May be Najib can shed some light on the coming result....

Posted by gark > 2012-11-09 16:04 | Report Abuse

Cannot... Kfima major shareholder is owning >60%, cannot raid. :P

Posted by davidraja > 2012-11-09 16:07 | Report Abuse

Kfima major shareholder another Tan Teng Boo, they dun give a shit to the share price. TOO TOO TOO conservative. There are so many ways boosting the share price but they choose to ignore it....

Go and learn from JOHOR TIN and MBM R boss.....

Posted by gark > 2012-11-09 16:08 | Report Abuse

Waiting to grab more at 1.85...dividend has been increasing for 7 consecutive years.. and then next one will be 8th year. Good divvy stock can keep for long time.

2007 - 2.0 sen
2008 - 2.5 sen
2009 - 3.0 sen
2010 - 5.0 sen
2011 - 7.0 sen
2012 - 8.0 sen
2013 - 10.0 sen?

Posted by gark > 2012-11-09 16:09 | Report Abuse

David raja.. if the stock give out INCREASING dividend, which part of it they do not care about shareholders?

Posted by davidraja > 2012-11-09 16:14 | Report Abuse

Ver simple, bonus issues will do as this will increase Kfima 's liquidity. Their share premium account is very huge. and why until now they still hold back the merger with Fima Corp where this corporate exercise will definetly benefit all the shareholder?

Posted by gark > 2012-11-09 16:17 | Report Abuse

I for one do not want the price to go up fast, I am in for the long term and keep collecting the increasing dividend. I have been collecting since 2010 and so far haven't reach my target holding yet. So shhhh... please don't wake up the stock :P

Posted by davidraja > 2012-11-09 16:20 | Report Abuse

agree with you Gark, time to wake up the major shareholder. Dun hold the merger to long otherwise more Laxey will be aiming for them....ha ha

Posted by gark > 2012-11-09 16:22 | Report Abuse

Talking about Laxey.. spoil my party only, now cannot collect more iCap at discount anymore :(