Posted by chongkonghui > 2012-09-12 12:03 | Report Abuse

about more at RM2.02 this morning.... BEST BUY item.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-09-12 12:05 | Report Abuse

What is the intrinsic value of Kumpulan Fima?
“If we think through these questions, we can gain some insights about what may be called “owner earnings.” These represent (a) reported earnings plus (b) depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges such as Company N’s items (1) and (4) less ( c) the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume. (If the business requires additional working capital to maintain its competitive position and unit volume, the increment also should be included in ( c) . However, businesses following the LIFO inventory method usually do not require additional working capital if unit volume does not change.)” – 1986 Berkshire letter
Warren Buffet stated that the value of a company is simply the total of the net cash flows (owner earnings) expected to occur over the life of the business, discounted by an appropriate interest rate
Using the following data and assumptions, the intrinsic value of Kumpulan Fima is RM3.87 per share, or a big margin of safety of 47% based on today’s price of RM2.05.
Data
2011 Revenue 470.75 m
2011 net income 80.86 m
Dividend 21.21 m
Capex 26.43 m
Depreciation 25.63 m
Working capital 87.17 m

Assumptions
Growth for the next 5 years 5%
Terminal growth rate 3%
Required return=3.5%+6.5% 10% risk free rate + risk premium
ROE in stable growth 12%

Posted by tuniamasingh > 2012-09-12 12:35 | Report Abuse

KC Chong, I think the reason why Kfima drops so my much for the past few days is because people has the perception it is a plantation stock which in fact plantation only contributes about 33% of the total profit of the company. Buliking and Printing contribute about 60% of the total profit to the company.

My calculation is very simple

http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?type=A&value=K&securityCode=6491

Based on the previous financial result and if I want to predict this coming quarter result, if the company can maintain this quarter profit after tax of RM20 million or EPS per share 7.81 sen, it should be better than last year 2nd quarter of RM16 million profit. So with the NTA and net cash of the company keep rocketing, this counter should be good for long term investment.

I have placed my queue at RM2.00 and the third bet will be decided after attending the coming AGM. I have no qualm to invest more if the managament can give some hints on how to improve the share liquidity( Bonus issues is one of the best option also since the strong balance sheet of the company)and the longly awaited merger and acquisition with Fima Corp.

Posted by pradeep > 2012-09-12 22:17 | Report Abuse

tuniamasingh keep your fingers cross and be patient up to next week.

Posted by tuniamasingh > 2012-09-12 22:27 | Report Abuse

No problem Pradeep. Let's have capati together to discuss more about your investor club.

Posted by sanyobatt > 2012-09-13 11:11 | Report Abuse

apa hal ini stock?tapao oredi,no more story :) good to go in now?

Posted by chongkonghui > 2012-09-13 11:19 | Report Abuse

Segment Results from FY2010-FY2012

https://plus.google.com/u/0/100279251844745113499/posts/FnJhSGf1Ffj

Posted by sanyobatt > 2012-09-13 11:21 | Report Abuse

don understand,thanks anyway.seems like going downhill everyday.

Posted by tuniamasingh > 2012-09-13 11:22 | Report Abuse

For me, buying in a a strong fundamental stock at current price will not go wrong.

Get the 8 sen per share before tax in less than three weeks plus capital gain might be right stratergy now.

Posted by sanyobatt > 2012-09-13 11:28 | Report Abuse

seems like going to drop more then 6 sen in three weeks,do you think so?

Posted by edmundgooi > 2012-09-13 11:30 | Report Abuse

NTA 2.17
P/E 6.7
Cash per share 1.00

Share price 2.04

Please give me another stock that can match the above.

Posted by sanyobatt > 2012-09-13 11:37 | Report Abuse

i don know edgooi.thanks

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 11:40 | Report Abuse

relax edmundgooi, good stock won't stay down too long.

warren said stock market is designed to transfer funds from the active to the patient!

Posted by sanyobatt > 2012-09-13 11:44 | Report Abuse

KC,should i go in now or wait?pls advice.thanks

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 11:44 | Report Abuse

what is your waiting period sanyobatt?

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-09-13 11:51 | Report Abuse

Hi KC! Welcome back1 me been qt busy for the past few weeks. Appreciate yr comments about KFIMA pls.

Posted by edmundgooi > 2012-09-13 12:02 | Report Abuse

Do not think anyone can predict the movement of a stock unless he is GOD or the big boss behind the company.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 12:05 | Report Abuse

in my unlearned opinion, fully valued now. but if plantation segment of KFima is improving, then you have a 2.20+ stock in your hands at least. also note that the merger with Fimacorp is in the cards! but this counter got hantu, someone always leaks out info before market time!

Posted by chongkonghui > 2012-09-13 12:10 | Report Abuse

Cash per share is RM1.02 (30.6.2012)
PE less than 7x.
Profit growing for past 5 years.

What could possibly goes wrong?

Posted by edmundgooi > 2012-09-13 12:13 | Report Abuse

Interesting we must catch the ghost then.

Posted by sanyobatt > 2012-09-13 12:41 | Report Abuse

KC,i am waiting after budget 2013.i don know how to calculate value of company but i think its over value.if merger with Fimacorp is coming,shouldn't be the price be moving up instead of going down closing lower everyday.just my opinion .Dont Shoot!:)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 12:50 | Report Abuse

i had it at fairly valued around 1.91. so its deemed fully valued at the moment with current price (2.03) but have an eye to future growth potential.

the news about merger sparked the rise from 1.88 to 2.4x at one stage. I think the news died down and the slide began. That's where the hantu part also needs to be checked. The funny thing is also, i wondered why then SC never issued a UMA when price rose from 1.88- 2.43 if not mistaken! there were no analysts' coverage then, unlike Airasia's slide today!

with good fundamental company, dont really have to worry too much about gyration nor GE, unless you want to trade and/or buy and sell at the closest price approximation. long trend will show rising pattern, if you care enough to do a 5- or 10-year study of this counter! Hence, my earlier question of what is your holding time!

i dont shoot if you are asking logically! we all learn if we can ask and also to answer it

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-09-13 12:53 | Report Abuse

KC, thnks. im still stuck with yr 'hantu' statemnts.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 12:58 | Report Abuse

my only fear is big powerful "hantus" at the back of the scene. note that KFima is dealing with govt security papers!

I remember a director friend in Malakoff told me, the secretaries of the big bosses are never to be trusted, especially if they are malay secretaries! and he is a Malay himself! hehehehe! he said once he had received a resume when he was looking for secretary. She sent a photo only and he had to take her because she was connected to a powerful family!

Posted by sanyobatt > 2012-09-13 13:05 | Report Abuse

KC,thanks.i think it will get lower,maybe will buy back later.my holding time ermm.. maybe 3-6mths or 1 yr.recently sold my ONLY couter after holding 4yrs++.:(
doesnt add up if merging with Fimacorp.BTW i bought at $2.30,cut at $2.03.
now ghost month,and every day got hantu at klse lah,sometime dia tolong,mostly dia tarik and cekik
Untung,untung chick feather,Rugi,rugi satu ekor lembu besar...for most case

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 13:06 | Report Abuse

LOL... happens to everyone, moi included!

Posted by fandi > 2012-09-13 13:49 | Report Abuse

Posted by KC Loh > Aug 7, 2012 08:24 PM

Something was amiss to me about the price jumping of this stock for me. Now that the news of merger with fimacorp, it is understandable. A 1.80+ stock taking over a 6+ company was a bit excessive. With this current price now, share swaps may be in place. Kfima has preempt two QE jumps to today's price. But kudos to najib for spotting this.

Just to satisfy my hunch, najib & fandi, are both of you with working as analysts or investment side? Say BIMB? Sorry don't mean to pry, but I think have analysts acquaintances covering the same few counters as you did. Appreciate more learned friends in this field although Fandi seems to try very hard portraying himself a red herring! Lol

You can choose to ignore the last question if it meant making you both comfortable. I am sorry. No malice intented.

Posted by KC Loh > Sep 11, 2012 11:53 AM

from experience, it tells me there was a huge jump, from 1.8x-2.2x (and further 2.4x) one stage that was never explained. should it had gone up to 1.96-98 then, it would have been a fundamental climb, which is rightly so for a stock that had barely moved 9 months prior. Mind you, this is still a very sound stock, but i guess those bought into it (my guess BIMB IB), are now finicky and clamouring to get out more so with election rumours spreading. tentatively this is just hearsay on my part, and so it is my unlearned experience to say it will get back to to an equilibrium!

this stock is a long term buy, but i dare not get in too much on a short term sprint! hope no KFima loyals attack me for my theory.

Hi all, just back from my holiday.

Getting interesting here when I read KC two posting here before that I have yet to apply. While I am amazed with KC observation at the same time surprised with his imagination. If I am not wrong, you implying me and Najib Zambry as the Hantu working in BIMB or Bank Islam......he he very interesting. What I want to empahsis here is that Fandi may not be a Malay and I just idolise my superstar footballer Fandi Ahmad. Most importantly not all Malay are working in BIMB Investment as analyst. Btw, Kfima mostly deal with Maybank and Public Bank. BIMB has never had any business contact with Kfima. You can check with them in the coming AGM.

I think it is very dangerous when one use their imagination to analyse a stock.

Regarding the merger and acquisition, I think all of us have heard for quite a some time, this is just a matter of time before the implemantation come. The issue is whether Malay management can be trusted, I will leave it to you all to decide.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 14:01 | Report Abuse

nope, you got it wrong. I have said that insiders from KFima is leaking the news from detailing secretaries! the snowballing effects then would go from one datuk to another!

hence, the price movement would not justify your small buying volume to get it so high! I did ask Najib if he was working with BIMB as they seem to be covering a few counters pretty much the same as he did. He was at liberty not to reply if it did inconvenienced him! If there were any note attacking both of you or any posting of mine mentioning both of you were hantus (why would i want to accuse both of you that when i did thank Najib for bringing KFima up?), please feel free to tell me in your next post! your imagination should take a rest too after your holidays!

i had wanted to ask about the name Fandi too, as i thought it was from Fandi Ahmad! the scourge of Malaysian football until he went to Holland! (not our version of Holland here)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 14:10 | Report Abuse

Fandi, please match with these postings to avoid overall ambiguity ya? :)

Posted by Najib Zamry > Aug 30, 2012 04:42 PM
KC for (1) & (2) confirmed is correct since Fima Corp is Kfima's subsidiary. (3) and (4) is my prediction. This quarter result should be worst than last year same quarter but should be flat against last quarter this year.
EPs should be around 6 sen for this quarter. NTA will increase to 2.15 and Net Cash will be around 260 million.

Posted by KC Loh > Aug 30, 2012 04:45 PM X
yeah i got the 1 & 2 part from fimacorp.
and you should be right too about your explanation on 3 & 4 seeing the slide. someone is leaking info already!
all i want is for it to go back to 2.25 and i have enough money to challenge Fandi for being the most cash rich person in this thread! LOL

Posted by Fandi > 2012-09-13 14:21 | Report Abuse

KC, I also can predictlah.

But end up Kfima EPS is 7.8 sen much better than 6 sen his prediction.

Najib Zambry prediction is not always right. Look at his prediction in WEIDA. You can see the posting in WEIDA.

My point is why you only mentioned about BIMB and not other IB? is it because you assume that Najib is Malay then he must be working in BIMB and not other IB? Can you give me examples of the stock that BIMB covered that makes you think that BIMB has covered Kfima?

Btw, Public investment Bank is the only IB that covers Kfima due to their good relationship with Kfima and we all know how conservative is PUBLIC BANK.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 14:28 | Report Abuse

Fandi, my whole idea is to glean a meaningful observations and details from Najib should he be an analyst. The question was just to satisfy my hunch, and should he be one, i would have gladly hear him out more! I see them as a source of information, and better friends if their info could be relied on.

if you want to continue where i think you are heading, then please do so without me. I had always stay non-racial in all my comments.

For the IB part, one of my analyst friends told me BIMB is covering that! Keep well, and from what i observed now, this will be my last posting to you on this matter!

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-09-13 14:29 | Report Abuse

and how sure are we that Fandi is Malay? There's a FENDI brand in PARIS & SWITZERLAND.
Fandi, Kfima is a Malay Tycoon Business and supported by....? Hehehehe...

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 14:30 | Report Abuse

Fandi is definitely malay name in this part of the world. I have two friends of that name!

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-09-13 14:33 | Report Abuse

KC, Fandi can be Caucasian. Hehehe. Markets Pick Up, must smile a bit ey?

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 14:35 | Report Abuse

could be eunuch too from his last dare prior to this! :)

Posted by Fandi > 2012-09-13 14:41 | Report Abuse

KC just give me the proof that BIMB covers KFima than I will shut my big mouth. Otherwise please stop posting your imagination here. So what if I am eunuch? at least I am gentlemean enough to admit my mistake.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 14:43 | Report Abuse

<yawn>

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-09-13 14:46 | Report Abuse

Ha ha... KC, you what 'Hantu' means?

Posted by sanyobatt > 2012-09-13 14:47 | Report Abuse

thanks KC,folks,good luck and all the best.huat cai arrr Kfima

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 14:48 | Report Abuse

namo, refer to posting before fandi stepped in.

sanyobatt... <thumbs up!>

Posted by edmundgooi > 2012-09-13 14:52 | Report Abuse

Fandi, you are right only Public Investmnent Bank and Jupiter Securities covered Kumpulan Fima.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/6491.jsp

Better avoid the noise here.

We are smart enough to judge who is lying here and pushing all his ways thru. Like the Chinese proverb says at the end, “shui luo shi chu” (when water recedes, the rock (truth) comes to light)?

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-09-13 14:54 | Report Abuse

Owww.. those 'Hantus', Selling The Infos. European even worst! American; The Infos & Speculation can become Investment and Profit to certain people even without entering the Share Markets.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 14:57 | Report Abuse

you know in US, at one stage they had paid "professionals" to even search rubbish dumps for info, usually competitors'! that's why shred machines were booming and a brisk business subsequently! the inventor of the prototype became a millionaire!

Posted by tuniamasingh > 2012-09-13 15:04 | Report Abuse

Ha ha based on my name do you know which race I belong to and which IB I attached to? Hopefully no one will say I am from Bank Singh Malaysia Berhad.....

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-09-13 15:12 | Report Abuse

i know and i knew.

Posted by tuniamasingh > 2012-09-13 15:19 | Report Abuse

Ha ha NT, I neither Hantu nor Insider. I must declare first that I never leak any info. he he

Posted by pradeep > 2012-09-13 17:58 | Report Abuse

I am the first guy reccomended Kfima and straight to the point this is a fundamental stock, good management and the company had growth.I subsequently read the other comments and I believe a few had done a complete research on this company and when the price come down to 2.03 and 2.02 I reccomend that you got a chance to collect because of market corection and you guys dont have to worry whether merger or no merger or share swap we must always look at the overall picture and is the company in the right direction.

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-09-13 18:11 | Report Abuse

Rise... "All hail King Pradeeeeeeeep"!!! "Mere bette dunnia heyy"...

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 18:52 | Report Abuse

makes sense as usual, pradeep! i like your analysis! :)

Posted by sanyobatt > 2012-09-13 19:06 | Report Abuse

pradeep thanks