Posted by dragon328 > 2022-09-28 16:57 | Report Abuse

With most stocks having declining earnings outlook, where will investors put money in? Can you still trade on speculative stocks? What story can drive up stocks anymore?
I would think that gradually people will find no other speculative stocks to goreng as stock market goes down the drain and trading volumes dry up. Then only dividend stocks with resilient business can find support from funds like EPF and KWAP.

Posted by tonywong8 > 2022-09-28 17:10 | Report Abuse

Fully agreed to D328. No need to watch the market performance now, only wait for dividend ex-date and money credit to my account.

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-09-28 20:02 | Report Abuse

Correct, no need to monitor the stock market everyday. Invest in good stocks like YTL Power with a long term view then can sleep well, and just wait for the world class management to work hard and generate cashflows for dividend payouts to us twice a year.

Posted by cwc1981 > 2022-09-28 20:03 | Report Abuse

Yup. Hope the share price will increase significantly soon

Posted by kasinathan > 2022-09-30 15:23 | Report Abuse

To retest year low price because the risk of pound by now has becoming income crisis

Posted by lotuseater > 2022-09-30 18:04 | Report Abuse

U got crystal ball, is it?

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-10-01 15:15 | Report Abuse

@kasinathan, no doubt the weak pound sterling will affect earnings contribution from Wessex Waters to YTLPower. The only "good" thing among all these negative developments is that Wessex's earnings is already expected to be weak in next few quarters given the high interest rates and high inflation environment there, so the weak pound effect on an already low earnings contribution will make the impact to YTLPower overall earnings not as bad.

With strong Singapore dollars, hopefully the increasingly strong earnings from PowerSeraya will be able to cover the weakening earnings from Wessex

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-10-01 15:18 | Report Abuse

But you are probably right that YTLPower share price may retest previous low given the current weak market sentiment. As long as its earnings outlook is still good and can maintain at least 5.0 sen dividend payout, I see this as an opportunity to accumulate more at even bargain prices, eg. at 0.63 it will yield 8%. Where else to find this high yield?

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-10-02 20:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by KINGV > 2022-10-02 21:48 | Report Abuse

As regards the problem of higher interest rates , YTLP directors known for their shrewdness would have locked in using fixed rates when rates are favourable for a large part of her loans. In such cases the problem only comes in when the loans/bonds matures in an increasing rates regime. The question is how much of the loans are under fixed rates regime and how much are under variable rates regime. I suspect most are under fixed rates regime which should protect YTLP for the moment. There is the question of the pound exchange rate . Here one should focus on the future pound/ringgit exchange rates since YTLP is a Malaysian based company. One cannot say with certainty where these rates are going. However I am confident the earnings from Singapore would be favourable. There are several other developments going on in YTLP which we hope will be favourable.

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-10-03 08:40 | Report Abuse

@KINGV, I agree with you and I think most of YTLP's debts are at fixed rates, in the form of mid to long term bonds issued when interest rates were at decade low. Singapore interest rates have risen but are still at low level, furthermore PowerSeraya does not require to raise much fund in next few years for any expansion/capex but rather will generate very strong cashflows.
For projects in Malaysia, i.e. green data centre park, the capex spend will span over 8 to 10 years. For the 1st project now, YTLP has already got sufficient funds from the disposal of Electranet.

The only weak link will be at Wessex Waters which will need to raise more funds for capex spend to 2025. Hopefully it will be adequately compensated through higher water tariffs from next year.

Posted by tonywong8 > 2022-10-14 16:33 | Report Abuse

现在市场的行情不好，除了EPF在里面有买卖外，大多数的都守着等股息。很容易的把股价推下去，希望有人丢给他。所以，只要公司前面的发展可以，他也不可能把股价推的太低，还有本钱的，乘着买低平价。

Posted by Icon 888 > 2022-10-15 10:29 | Report Abuse

Keep cash ya.. crisis on the way

Posted by cwc1981 > 2022-10-27 14:58 | Report Abuse

Director buy lots of share but still lacking compare to Chin Hin and Hextar.

Posted by cwc1981 > 2022-11-09 11:05 | Report Abuse

Ex div also quiet

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-11-09 16:06 | Report Abuse

2.5 sen dividend going ex tomorrow

Posted by KohBC0401 > 2022-11-09 18:53 | Report Abuse

ytl power, btul power!

Posted by KohBC0401 > 2022-11-09 18:54 | Report Abuse

crypto already fallen, crisis is near

Posted by KINGV > 2022-11-09 19:21 | Report Abuse

This piece of information on page 27 of the annual report 2022 should be of interest to shareholders. "The global pandemic led to a delay in the project due to travel and movement restrictions imposed by the Jordanian government, with commercial operations for Unit 1 and Unit 2 now expected to commence towards the end of the 2022 calendar year ." This is a positive development if there are no changes.

Posted by xiaochen > 2022-11-16 09:26 | Report Abuse

With the oil shale power purchasing agreement (PPA) coming on stream, NEPCO’s financial balance will come under further stress next year (2023).

Posted by xiaochen > 2022-11-16 09:28 | Report Abuse

Above news quote from IMF press release, 15/11/2022, through the following title: IMF Staff Reach Staff-Level Agreement with Jordan on the Fifth Review Under the Extended Fund Facility

Posted by xiaochen > 2022-11-16 09:30 | Report Abuse

Additional supportive point can get through NEPCO 2021 annual report, page 29.

NEPCO’s Electrical Energy Purchases (GWh)
B- Oil Shale - Atarat 183.5

Posted by xiaochen > 2022-11-16 09:32 | Report Abuse

Means that, NEPCO start his very first Electrical Energy Purchases from APCO already begin in 2021.

Posted by tonywong8 > 2022-11-16 17:09 | Report Abuse

May be will be reflected in coming quarterly result or 1Q23.
Hope also power plant newly acquired in Singapore will contribute profit to the company.

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-11-16 20:57 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen, looking at the amount of electrical energy purchased (183.5 GWh), I think it was just some commissioning or testing energy. The Jordan plant has not yet declared commercial operation.

Posted by xiaochen > 2022-11-17 09:34 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 Ya, maybe it just doing some test run. No matter what, it seems like NEPCO is preparing to do business with APCO.

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-11-17 11:34 | Report Abuse

It certainly makes business sense for Nepco to get electrical power from APCO as it is billed in local currency and at fixed rates which are lower than power generated with imported fuel at elevated prices

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-11-17 11:36 | Report Abuse

They are making some little noise just to hope for a lower tariff from APCO, but they have no leverage nor bargaining power as the alternative is to use imported gas or oil which are expensive. Gas supply there is not reliable as the main gas supply pipeline is often sabotaged

Posted by Mars De > 2022-11-19 22:18 | Report Abuse

PT PLN announced in July 2022 that the Tanjung Jati A (Jawa 3) power plant is officially cancelled

Posted by Mars De > 2022-11-19 22:18 | Report Abuse

https://ejatlas.org/conflict/proposed-tanjung-jati-a-coal-fired-power-plant-indonesia

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-11-20 21:38 | Report Abuse

The cancellation of Tanjung Jati A project is well expected as I explained earlier, as it is now difficult to get international financing to support new coal-fired power plant project. I think YTLP has already made some provisions in the June qtrly result to write off some development costs related to this TJ project.

Posted by cwc1981 > 2022-11-21 12:44 | Report Abuse

Any expectations on coming result?

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-11-21 15:49 | Report Abuse

I expect good earnings contribution from PowerSeraya but am wary of any negative surprise from Wessex

Posted by cwc1981 > 2022-11-21 16:00 | Report Abuse

Thanks

Posted by cwc1981 > 2022-11-22 10:17 | Report Abuse

Quiet only. Maybe earning so so

Posted by cwc1981 > 2022-11-24 18:04 | Report Abuse

EPS 2 cents. Not bad.

Posted by observatory > 2022-11-24 21:30 | Report Abuse

The Singapore business (now under power generation segment) has shown good results. However I'm less sure about two other items. One is that the telco business continues to bleed. PBT loss was RM84m in current quarter. Anyway the underperfoming telco has been discussed before.

A new concern for me is finance cost has increased from RM240m a year ago to RM332m in the current quarter. Given the amount of borrowing (borrowings on the balance sheet are about RM2.8 billion), a substantial portion of the operating profit has been eaten up by interest payment.

Is the borrowing a bit too much given the rising interest rate? With hindsight should the proceeds from ElectraNet sales be used to pay down borrowing instead of getting into new projects?

Does it also mean the company is unlikely to raise dividend any time soon due to the heavy burden of interest payment?

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-11-24 21:57 | Report Abuse

Contribution from PowerSeraya is encouraging, and there was no big negative surprise from Wessex with a small net profit.

On interest expenses, I agree with Observatory that this is sounding little alarm as it went up from RM240m last year quarter to RM332m in this Q1FY2023.

I see that total borrowings remained about RM28 billion as of 30 Sept 2022 while cash holdings increased slightly from last year. Most of these borrowings (estimated 2,315 million pounds or RM12.3 billion) sit at Wessex Waters level. We all know that the interest rates in the UK has gone up a lot recently to 3.0% in Nov from 0.2% last Nov. A 2.8% increase in interest rates will have resulted in RM12.2 bn x 2.8% /4 = RM85 million of increase in interest rate expenses. The rest of the interest expense increase was due to small rise in PowerSeraya.

A good thing is that interest rate hikes in the US and UK are set to slow down going forward.

The increase in interest rates will be compensated by higher water tariffs from next regulatory year from Apr 2023, so Wessex Waters just have to live with high interest expenses for next few months.

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-11-24 22:05 | Report Abuse

YTL Power had cash holdings of RM7.4 bn as of 30 Sept 2022, so net debts amounted to RM28bn - RM7.4bn = RM20.6 bn.

An estimated debt of RM12.2 bn sat in Wessex, RM7.0 bn in PowerSeraya, RM1.5 bn in Jordan Power, so net debt in YTL Power amounted to RM20.6b - 12.2 - 7.0 - 1.5 = -RM0.1 bn or a nett cash position of RM100 million.

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-11-24 22:13 | Report Abuse

Operating cashflows amounted to about RM494 million for this Q1, minus capex RM383m, there were still positive free cashflows of some RM111 million per quarter or RM444 million per year or 5.4 sen per share.

Operating cashflows should increase in following quarters as PowerSeraya reports stronger earnings and Wessex enjoys higher water tariffs from Q4FY2023, I think.

So I think YTLPI still has capacity to declare dividend of 5.0 sen min for FY2023.

Posted by observatory > 2022-11-24 23:44 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, thank you for providing the breakdown, and showing the effect of interest rate hike on Wessex Waters.

Posted by xiaochen > 2022-11-25 08:39 | Report Abuse

“With the entry into force of the agreement to purchase electricity generated from oil shale, the financial balance of the NEPCO will come under greater pressure next year,” the IMF statement said.

https://www.jordannews.jo/Section-113/All/Jordan-economic-reform-is-on-right-path-2-7-GDP-growth-envisaged-IMF-24639

Posted by xiaochen > 2022-11-25 08:42 | Report Abuse

2023, NEPCO have to purchase electric from APCO.

2023, APCO will in service.
2024, DC will in service.

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-11-25 17:14 | Report Abuse

I do hope that the Jordan Attarat Power can start commercial operation soon, but I have no news on the arbitration case

Posted by Tigertiger > 2022-11-26 21:45 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ytl-power-1q-earnings-jump-nearly-five-times-better-contribution-power-generation

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-26 22:44 | Report Abuse

Wessex water charge rate

From April 2022 our charges increased by around 4.5% compared to last year, for a customer receiving both water and sewerage services. Charges applicable from 1 April every year are published by 1 February.

We are now in the process of preparing our charges which will apply to bills from 1 April 2023. These charges will be confirmed on our website by 1 February 2023. Unfortunately, our prices will be increasing again largely due to high inflation.

Posted by xiaochen > 2022-11-27 10:22 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 The arbitration case still not ended, BUT through the flow of the case, APCO have higher possibility will win this case. And the market (IMF) is assuming NEPCO have to carry out his own responsibility.

Sooner or later, if you notice that YTLP share price suddenly shoot up 10-20 sens in a day which happened before, it possibility means that the case is finished.

Posted by xiaochen > 2022-11-27 10:29 | Report Abuse

YTLP stock price is easy to estimate.

From what im notice is, the market give this stock around 7% DY.

If the dividend given is 4.5 sens, the share price will fall around 65 sens.
If the dividend given is 5 sens, the share price will fall around 70 sens.
If the dividend given is 5.5 sens, the share price will fall around 78 sens.
If the dividend given is 6 sens, the share price will fall around 85 sens.
If you want the price shoot to RM 1, the dividend given should be around 7 sens.

i guess HLB is estimating this shock will provide 7 sens dividend in coming year.

Posted by xiaochen > 2022-11-27 10:36 | Report Abuse

For example, the latest analysis from Aminvest.

Source : AmInvest, Price Call : HOLD, Price Target : 0.75

So, the expected dividend is around 5.0 to 5.5 sens.

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-11-27 16:44 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen, agree with you that YTLPI has been valued at about 7% dividend yield, but it has traded towards 5% yield at some times when the share price was almost RM2.00 when dividend was 10 sen.

I expect this to happen again from FY2024.