Posted by ongkkh > 2019-12-11 11:25 | Report Abuse

Hello Philip, stoneco is not a Msia counter i believe?

Posted by Frank Soweto > 2019-12-11 11:38 | Report Abuse

wah so many top sifus here,to be fair Ricky back in the days when he was known as JT I think LOL did share quite a few stocks eg Scientex,Favco, Aeon credit etc when those stocks prices are way lower than currently and I've always enjoy reading his articles/analysis - just like I enjoy reading KC,Felicity,Philip etc - You can tell by their writing/sharing these are honest people :)

Posted by untong > 2019-12-11 11:54 | Report Abuse

I think one of the stock pick from Ricky must be Scientex

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-12-11 16:32 | Report Abuse

In the meantime of waiting Ricky's 5 stocks....would also like to wait for Choivo's 5 stocks. Both of them have same traits because they are adik beradik kembar....sharing same DNA same genetic and also thoughts.


See the below extraction is frm choivo's post on MBMR thread. A bit a bit they can simply come out with 3 companies...10 companies more than 50% discount EASILY....DUDE its not competition, we here to make money. Dont you get it?????????????????? DUDE.....BRO.......



___________________________________________________________________


Stock: [MBMR]: MBM RESOURCES BHD

Jan 3, 2019 6:00 PM | Report Abuse

Its at best a 30-35% discount to fair value.

I can name you at least 3 companies selling at 40-50% off fair value. And this is fair value derived from earnings.

If we go to RNAV, i can name you 10 at more than 50% discount easily.

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-12-11 16:36 | Report Abuse

"If you see fraud and don't call fraud, you are a fraud. That's just me." - Choivo Capital

DAHELL IS THIS KID TALKING ABOUT MAN....Already made 100% and SOLD ALL at 4.15 and share price retrace a lil bit but still sustaining at WAY ABOVE commonsense initial buy call..... 1.98

By looking back the history.....now seems like the one call ppl fraud are the one doing fraud. People who listen to u and stop believe in commonsense would have lost their chance making 100% return....

SO WHO IS THE ONE DOING FRAUD?????

LISTEN TO YOUR PETRON? LOOK WHR YOUR PETRON GO....SOUTH INSTEAD OF NORTH..........SO SICK......seeing academician talk like a professional fund manager while cant even FUCKING PERFORM.


__________________________________________________________________

Stock: [MBMR]: MBM RESOURCES BHD

Jan 4, 2019 1:17 PM | Report Abuse

He does not need my approval, and can keep doing so. I'm just calling him out.

But he is being unethical. By going to every single forum and do weak and biased analysis on that company for the sole purpose of diminishing it in comparison to MBM, which he intends to fry, and sell to the retailers, which consist of retired people with weak investment/speculation decision making abilities, who follow after him

If you see fraud and don't call fraud, you are a fraud. That's just me.

If so great, diam and buy.

Every q result out show on malaysiastockbiz, every q season, people go click, and if see such wonderful results, will naturally buy and push price up.

Although, tbh, its probably better than people do stupid things in market and get burned, thus leaving the market, but i have too much indignation for that for some reason.

=====

Why so angry ? What makes you think that common sense needs your approval to talk about his favourite stock ?

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-12-12 09:40 | Report Abuse

Alright, not going to waste everyone's time. Explanation below:

If a company has 100% payout ratio, then earnings growth rate is 0%. Therefore, Dividend = ROC. If an investor reinvest all these dividends, dividends received (which is his long-term return) will compound at the same rate as the business's ROC. Even if one spent all the dividends, his long-term return won't be 0%. Example, if the business long-term ROC is 20%, earnings growth rate can be 0%, but investor return will be 20% CAGR when all dividends get reinvested. Even under the circumstances of not reinvesting them, long-term CAGR will be lower, but it will ABSOLUTELY not be 0%.

Does this refute that earnings growth is the ONLY thing that matters? Does this shows ROC is a better predictor of investors return than earnings growth rate? Does this show investors return can be very different from earnings growth rate?

Why so hard to understand this concept? Why talk about my blog, my career, my holiday, my dogs, my reading, all these irrelevant crap? When you can't even get the big things right? When the mouth starts spewing crap, the brain is filled with crap.

That is why these same bunch of people will come back with more ad hominem fallacy (but don't react, just observe). Human behaviour is predictable. But it always amaze me nonetheless.

The end. Bye!

Posted by popo92 > 2019-12-12 10:08 | Report Abuse

Is ROC important? of coz it is, but ROC do change when earning growth. And earning growth doesn't comes from air, it comes from business itself. So instead of studying its business ricky look at past data but not future ROC and said it should not worth what price is completely bs. Valuation doesn't come this way. Your merely stock analysis, a few but so far prove wrong had already mean a lot. An investment talk is completely not persuasive when analysis is not practically on business instead whole bunch of academic theory. This is what most disagree. Why many had to stand out to oppose? I think it's more to your behaviour.
知人者智，自知者明。无知并不可怕，无明最恐怖

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-12-12 10:33 | Report Abuse

just give us the 5 stocks

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-12-12 11:38 | Report Abuse

ya whr is the 5 stocks...at first say i can name u how many how many....same as the choivo. when ask to list time he at thr byebye...

Posted by chl1989 > 2019-12-12 12:27 | Report Abuse

well. he is not from Earth. he speaks different language i think

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-12-12 14:38 | Report Abuse

This remark is purely stupid. This shows you are really just purely academia. If your head is screwed on straight you would have realized that ASTRO has extremely high roc, but it has no obligation to make you money not does it predict long term investors return in any way.

Come on, and if you think real hard you will not buy a single share of ASTRO, as you know that the shares have not moved since forever, you are enjoying fixed deposit rates for a risky business that is going to be a dinosaur when the internet age is here.

And if you look at earnings growth for astro, you know exactly why the share price never recovered from its IPO price of RM 3.

Stay in school kids.


>>>>>>>

Does this refute that earnings growth is the ONLY thing that matters? Does this shows ROC is a better predictor of investors return than earnings growth rate? Does this show investors return can be very different from earnings growth rate?

Posted by untong > 2019-12-12 15:54 | Report Abuse

Earning growth/revenue growth is always the most important thing to consider, learnt it the hard way~

Dividend payout ratio, ROC, Cash flow, ROE, etc are there to help validate the quality of earnings and confirm whether the earning growth is sustainable or oneoff.

If a company paid 100% of its earnings, or even 120% and you are sure that he can still grow its earnings for the following many years, why not?

Don't easily say no to anything just looking at single metric

Posted by Up_down > 2019-12-12 15:58 | Report Abuse

ROC would be more suitable in DJ market. It’s not really practical for Bursa market after witnessing up and down cycles in last 2 decades. KLSE is a unique market.

Posted by Up_down > 2019-12-12 16:01 | Report Abuse

We are investing or trading in Bursa so we must follow the culture here to make money. Buy Tguan.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-12-12 20:59 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Just out of curiosity: What should be the market price of below three share?
ASTRO
Total assets: 6,259,600,000
Total liabilities:5,580,700,000
Equity: 678,900,000
NP to SH: 462,900,000
ROC: 7.40%
ROE: 68.18%
Number of Shares: 5,214,300,000
EPS: 0.09

INSAS
Total assets: 2,338,959,000
Total liabilities: 599,601,000
Equity:1,739,358,000
NP to SH:81,831,000
ROC: 3.5%
ROE: 4.7%
Number of Shares: 663,007,000
EPS:0.123

QL
Total assets:3,683,234,000
Total liabilities: 1,663,699,000
Equity: 2,019,535,000
NP to SH: 216,743,000
ROC: 5.9%
ROE: 10.7%
Number of Shares: 1,622,438,000
EPS: 0.134

Thank you

Posted by popo92 > 2019-12-12 21:40 | Report Abuse

haha sslee, this is like asking an egg, a farm and a cow and you ask what should we price them. Always remember the beauty of investing stock/business is the power of creating value within it. from the quantitative figures you have provide, you are clearly missing out how their business can create owner earnings in indefinitely years ahead.......

Posted by Sslee > 2019-12-12 22:46 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
I just want to point out no single parameter will determine the share price. Everything need to look into with relative to current market price whether it is undervalue or overvalue or market already price in the growth.

Thank you

Posted by cheoky > 2019-12-12 22:55 | Report Abuse

So conclusion? Share price is slave to earning power?
Roc or technical analysis is to satisfy own mind hurdle before u click that buy button. Never is to satisfy market quotation....

Mysterious market...

Posted by Sslee > 2019-12-12 23:37 | Report Abuse

Yes,
Indeed market work mysteriously.
Hope with ROC, ROE and EPS, Rickey Yeo can conclude what is the earning power and tell me what should be the value of above three shares.

Posted by Up_down > 2019-12-12 23:40 | Report Abuse

The beauty of the stock market is NO conclusion is the conclusion. Earnings power is essential but it’s also dependent on the market ie Pohuat and Liihen shows strong earning power at present but operators are not interested. It’s hard to say in short and mid term.

Posted by Up_down > 2019-12-13 00:05 | Report Abuse

In future, we still hear people say making money from applying long term holding, high growth stock, high NTA, ROC, DY...monkey or octopus or whatever...It's nothing wrong so long as we can make money from the stock market consistently.

Posted by SpotOn1 > 2019-12-13 00:49 | Report Abuse

relax guys, the chart indicate buy

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-12-13 07:24 | Report Abuse

Hi sslee, market doesn't work mysteriously, every price is based on action.

If you are looking short term, anything goes. Price can go up because of rumours, acquisitions, announcements etc because of market expectations. Basically even the potential of an event happening can cause price to fluctuate. I don't know how to invest in these probabilities.

But if you are looking long term, only those companies where the earnings have been expanding year after year after year will have their share price go up. Not assets, not cash in bank, not receivables and deliverables ( although of course people are not stupid, earnings have to ratio with debt creation and shareholder dilution).

This is why companies like ql and topglove and aeon has increased 10x in market value for past 10 years because the long term earnings growth has steadily increased.

Tguan at its peak of 4.20 was doing 60 million a year in earnings. Now as the earnings start to grow more and the acquisitions grow the share price start to recover back to 2016 levels.

For your insas, in the short term there are those hopes and probabilities of warrants, owners taking over insas for 1.20, increased dividends, wonderful assets etc.

But the fact remains:

Earnings had steadily dropped from 160 million lightning in a bottle when they helped companies to list in 2014 ( and respect for Malaysian companies was high, but thanks to 1mdb it would be hard for foreign investors to invest big Malaysian companies anymore) to today 80 million and steadily dropping.

This is why the share price is stagnant. Everything is hopes and dreams, but nothing concrete. This is like the classic story of waiting for your grandfather to drop dead so you can inherit the farm and sell it for profit, but soon realising the old man going to outlive you. What now brown cow?

The lesson remains: you do not buy a stock for what it has now, you buy a stock for what you think it will have tomorrow. That's the beauty and the excitement of investing.

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-12-13 07:27 | Report Abuse

Just to have decent conversation,

Sslee, can you post the same figures in 2013? To see what happened in five years, and estimate what will happen 5 years from now?

>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Dec 12, 2019 8:59 PM | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Just out of curiosity: What should be the market price of below three share?
ASTRO
Total assets: 6,259,600,000
Total liabilities:5,580,700,000
Equity: 678,900,000
NP to SH: 462,900,000
ROC: 7.40%
ROE: 68.18%
Number of Shares: 5,214,300,000
EPS: 0.09

INSAS
Total assets: 2,338,959,000
Total liabilities: 599,601,000
Equity:1,739,358,000
NP to SH:81,831,000
ROC: 3.5%
ROE: 4.7%
Number of Shares: 663,007,000
EPS:0.123

QL
Total assets:3,683,234,000
Total liabilities: 1,663,699,000
Equity: 2,019,535,000
NP to SH: 216,743,000
ROC: 5.9%
ROE: 10.7%
Number of Shares: 1,622,438,000
EPS: 0.134

Thank you

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-12-13 07:50 | Report Abuse

2013.

Ql
Total assets: 2,008,530
Total liabilities:1,048,852
Equity: 960,000
NP to SH: 131.706
ROE: 20.29
Number of shares: 832,260
EPS: 0.115

Has it be growing? Yes, did the share price go up? Yes.

The question of whether or not the price is overvalued or not is academic. Like Ricky yeoh he likes to comment that it is too expensive betc etc while those who held and bought have enjoyed consistent growth year after year.

As earnings and revenue hit all time highs, share price is sure to follow.

The question now is momentum, if the last 5 years track record is growth, it reasonable to assume next 5 years also growth ( but monitor often). If last 5 years is stagnation or deficit, it is reasonable to assume next 5 years also will be deficit ( but monitor often).

As for tguan, as now it is expanding margins and growing volume, it is reasonable to assume next five years to grow its business.

But definitely monitor often.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-12-13 08:09 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Thank you. If compare QL 2013 and 2019 FA. Both ROC and ROE is on decreasing trend do that mean addition capital did not give the rate of growth as it used to be thus market price grow will also slow down?

Thank you

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-12-13 08:23 | Report Abuse

I have warned everybody since last year. This ricky yeo is a master of textbooks who would make a better lecturer than an investor. Her picks such as AEONCR and APM all went holland against the benchmark and her articles were no where to be seen. I guess she felt too embarassed and deleted those rubbish articles. In every forum, whenever Ricky felt she lost the argument, she would bring out her grandmother story of a ten bagger investment in Scientex. Little did she know, her coup in Scientex could be interpreted as nothing more than luck in line with her finance textbook theories.

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-12-13 08:27 | Report Abuse

This ricky yeo acts like the number one book smart student in the classroom who look down on all his classmates except Jon Choivo (who carry the same feathers) just because he read more finance books than everyone else. But her results suggest otherwise, there were almost no stock picks from her all over the years. What she did was going to every column of gap up stocks which she missed and tell people why the stock shouldnt trade higher based on her PE and ROIC theories.

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-12-13 08:30 | Report Abuse

A word of advice, Ricky. Studying few more books does not guarantee success in the stock market. Be humble and keep an open mind of the possibilities in the stock market. Sifu like Icon and Phillip did not study a single finance book and yet made 10000x more money than you from the market like ATM machine. Lastly, do not bring out your finance theory to rebut my comments. I come to i3 to make money, not to involve in intellectual discussions with you.

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-12-13 09:58 | Report Abuse

looks like ROC fail to work this time...

Posted by Huat1 > 2019-12-13 10:00 | Report Abuse

TGUAN moving up nicely

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-12-13 10:05 | Report Abuse

flinstone even worse

he confessed before he didn't buy stocks at all

with zero real life combat experience, why does he think he has the right to criticise my favourite academician Ricky Yeo ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-12-13 10:17 | Report Abuse

when I called for BUY MBM Resources at RM2.20, this is what Flinstone the book worm said


MBM subsequently went to RM4.00+

==========



Flintstones MBM is another forever undervalued company. Sometimes you got to think why the undervaluation persists. Is it because of its business? Is it because of its holding company status? Is it because of the illiquidity discount? Plenty of factors to ponder at. CCB who one time had a 49% stake in mercedes benz malaysia was completely ignored by the market too. My theory is that fund managers tend to discount associate stake in car manufacturers and prefer to value companies with car manufacturing/dealership as their core business. That is why BAuto, Sime are valued at a premium
03/01/2019 8:40 AM

Posted by yfchong > 2019-12-13 10:36 | Report Abuse

Bro icon 8888.. Any stocks that cross Yr mind in 2020

Posted by Cakes Moon > 2019-12-13 10:48 | Report Abuse

All in Tguan, I will push the share price up to RM6~

Posted by AlgoQuant > 2019-12-13 10:51 | Report Abuse

Perhaps the value and growth investors in this forum would like to look at a business that is not operating in commoditised packaging products which would need to rely on external factors like the US-China trade-wars to benefit nor exposed to cyclical raw material / resin prices and diversify into a takaful insurance company that is riding on the structural growth in islamic insurance

Takaful Malaysia's net profit grew by CAGR 25% over the last 10 years, increasing by almost 10x from RM 38 mil (2009) to RM 380 mil (T4Q), growing profits even through the global financial crisis and recession that followed, with a still low takaful penetration of 16% (overall insurance penetration rate of only 50% with takaful insurance growing at a faster pace than conventional insurance)

Currently trading at a PE of only 12.7x (vs Lonpac PE 18) and a P/BV of only 3.6x (historical P/BV 6.x) with an industry-leading ROE 29.11% (closest Lonpac ROE 16.72% with P/B of 3.1x)

* Record high dividend of 20c ex-date 18 Dec 2019 translating to DY of 3.4% *

(AlgoQuant) A Takaful Titan & Analysis of Listed Insurance Companies (TAKAFUL)

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/AlgoQuant/243164.jsp

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price" - Warren Buffett

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-12-13 10:53 | Report Abuse

this question is very easy to answer. Alliance Bank at this price is guarantee makan


Posted by yfchong > Dec 13, 2019 10:36 AM | Report Abuse

Bro icon 8888.. Any stocks that cross Yr mind in 2020

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-12-13 10:53 | Report Abuse

25% of my portfolio in it

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-12-13 10:54 | Report Abuse

I also very positive about Sam Engineering

Posted by gemfinder > 2019-12-13 11:17 | Report Abuse

yahoo.... rm4 coming

Posted by yfchong > 2019-12-13 12:15 | Report Abuse

Tx. Bro icon8888

Posted by yfchong > 2019-12-13 12:27 | Report Abuse

Rm 4 not enuf.. I just break even only... Bonus issue OK boh?

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-12-13 12:41 | Report Abuse

Icon sifu. No doubt about your real life combat experience. I estimate your stock portfolio is not more than RM400k, definitely not Phillip sifu level yet. I would suggest you withdraw all your EPF and sailang since you are rich in combat experience

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-12-13 12:42 | Report Abuse

RM 400k portfolio at your age is nothing to shout of. Word of advice, put some of your money in hard asset in land if you have the means to do so. The wealth creation from hard asset will be more than your daily punt on Bursa lah

Posted by abang_misai > 2019-12-13 12:46 | Report Abuse

hehe. agree stone.

Posted by abang_misai > 2019-12-13 12:47 | Report Abuse

i think he has at least Rm4mil. certainly not 400k

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-12-13 13:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-12-13 13:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by gemfinder > 2019-12-13 13:16 | Report Abuse

Yfchong, wat px u enter wor? U bought long time ago ka? Keep until now?

Posted by cheoky > 2019-12-13 13:19 | Report Abuse

thong guan 888 kopitiam full house till burst... a lot of uncles blow water now...