Posted by Connie555 > 2019-12-06 16:35 | Report Abuse

Talk so much useless....perform...dont jz talk like tin kosong. did u see i ever mention about anything related to figure at all? told u anyone with accounting background could hv come out with the same result. but why not all the accountant is making money from share market? wake up please....we dont swim by jz reading the book....crazy....do u see micheal jordan read book and became 6 times nba champion?????

so teach me....if read how to get rich can really get rich....read how to shoot a basket can really become nba top shooter....

Posted by popo92 > 2019-12-06 16:39 | Report Abuse

Ricky do you have any successful investments that you can share with us? I am not very sure what makes you that confident, but I highlight your failed investment to remind how confident you beat your chest like you are the only one correct.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-12-06 16:40 | Report Abuse

Uncle, there is a difference between swimming and investing. Your analogy works to an extend. Swimming is physical; investing is mental. That is why reading swimming books and investment related books are totally different thing. Got it?

Of course you don't talk figure. I never even seen you analyse a stock! Talking about practical, who is practical, the one that writes on i3 and walk to talk or the one jio ppl to go JB find him lim teh?

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-12-06 16:42 | Report Abuse

@probability I always welcome your 'more influential information'. I'm waiting for you to tell me.

Posted by chl1989 > 2019-12-06 16:46 | Report Abuse

from low polymer prices bro...

Posted by chl1989 > 2019-12-06 16:49 | Report Abuse

ppl are here for some well known facts and insights...

Posted by chengcheekaan > 2019-12-06 17:28 | Report Abuse

Posted by popo92 > Dec 6, 2019 4:39 PM | Report Abuse

Ricky do you have any successful investments that you can share with us? I am not very sure what makes you that confident, but I highlight your failed investment to remind how confident you beat your chest like you are the only one correct.

I like to know too. What is your successful investment? Because theory is useless if there is no result to back up. Please don't be offended, not that I think your theory is useless, it's just that it's easier to talk when you got the results.

Posted by George Leong > 2019-12-06 19:38 | Report Abuse

Chill guys. We are all sharing info here to improve our investment performance. Blessed weekend everyone :)

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-12-06 21:42 | Report Abuse

If my investment journey is not a success one, i wouldnt hv time to ask u come and find me limteh...wouldnt hv time to spend on you at all. Could hv working my ass at some other place oledi...

Come back to the main point, i just dont wish to see young talent like you and choivo fall into the trap too much. with knowledge is good, but to an extend it was too much oledi....

50% fundamental 30%trend 20%luck.


_________________________________________________________________

Of course you don't talk figure. I never even seen you analyse a stock! Talking about practical, who is practical, the one that writes on i3 and walk to talk or the one jio ppl to go JB find him lim teh?

Posted by GLNT > 2019-12-06 21:52 | Report Abuse

If one is confident of his own judgment and had a good track record, he would be extremely glad if others differ on judgment and opinion, because he would be able to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunities created by all these different opinions. So, thank you all for all your different opinions :)

Posted by GLNT > 2019-12-06 21:56 | Report Abuse

Many people said Tguan was lousy and should only be worth RM2.50 and below when it was at that price range, such as Harry Teo, O'Mighty Capital, Kenanga etc. We should be thankful to all these so called experts as they helped to press down the share price allowing so many to accumulate. So, thank you thank you :)

Posted by GLNT > 2019-12-06 21:59 | Report Abuse

Hahaha!!! Doesn't matter, as long as I was earning money. Who cares.

Posted by cheoky > 2019-12-06 22:17 | Report Abuse

Very reluctant come here. One Ricky lure so many sifus out. We young chap should sometimes listen to senior. Maybe you are in deep comfortable zone by sticking to reading. If u have to experience loses penetrating your core emotion in stock market, you will trust more on yourself, your experience and results of your investing will guide your investing style. Book is never a substitute of above.
Of course, you will becomes more keen to learning by reading because you saw your investing results is showing you are learning the right path.

Rmb system building, you don't study everything prior jump into building a system. You study and learn along the way why and how to overcome obstacle in front of you only when you encounter that obstacle. That time you read, ask and think.

The first step require gut without having complete knowledge. Complete knowledge Robin fly away lo. Jom beli la ah guan.act now. No talk.

Got Guan yi bobi. No need scare la. Jump in only worry later.

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-12-08 11:45 | Report Abuse

They never think why they are being attacked whenever they appear...its not because of face problems obviously....they nvr think why even the widely respected sifu icon also beh tahan them...if one ppl against u then might b other ppl fault...if 10 or 20 ppl against u...u might need tk start thinking what is ur problem oledi

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-12-08 16:52 | Report Abuse

The discussion is getting messy here. If:

1. You have any discussion or disagreement about ROC superiority over earnings growth, you're welcome to view and reply my statement to Icon. None has so far.

2. You have any different view about Thong Guan, I'm happy to hear from you.

3. You want to talk about reading and investing, I don't see any point of doing so. It is like discussing politics or religion, we can discuss to the end of time and there won't be any agreement.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-12-08 17:35 | Report Abuse

@chl1989 Your reply reminds me of when I was investing Flbhd in 2015. Your reply could easily have been "Favorable forex gain bro". How many ppl wake up to the reality that the share price had little correlation with the exchange rate between MYR:USD. And I'm not even asking you specifically about Tguan, but in general term what are the fundamental of earning growth i.e why some companies can grow revenue by 5% while others 20% etc.

But just something for you to think about, you don't have to answer me. Investing is about thinking alternative outcomes (aka risk management), so here are some:

1. Everyone knows polymer resin price is on the decline, what is your probability that that expectation (of low price and higher earnings) has not been factored into Tguan's current price?

2. Given polymer resin price decline is public information, and Tguan's customers don't have a price lock-in contract, what do you think is the probability that those customers while demand lower selling price? Considering Tguan is a price taker not price maker. What would happen to earning growth if that turn out to be true?

3. Follow up on Q2, what is the probability Tguan has the ability to NOT pass the cost saving to their customers?

4. Follow up on Q2 & Q3, given lower resin price is a boon for plastic manufacturer, what does that tell you about the possibility of Scientex using this opportunity to ramp up their utilization rate and market share? What tells you about other dozens smaller manufacturers eager to grow their market share? And how does that affect Tguan's earning growth?

5. Most important of all, your investment thesis on Tguan lies on a macroeconomic variable that is highly unpredictable: polymer resin price. Maybe you have other main reasons of investing in Tguan I don't know. But having an investment thesis rest on an unpredictable variable, you should know what that implies.

6. Follow up on Q5, if your thesis lies on low resin price (and how unpredictable it is), what is your probability (and magnitude) of loss should the resin price suddenly reverse in trend? And given how unpredictable the future price is, what is your advantage in selling faster than others when market expectation turns?

Not like I'm expecting you to have answers for all these. I don't even know the answers. Probabilistic estimate yes, answer no. But these are considered some 'business sense' questions one should think about before buying Tguan on the assumption of earning growth driven by lower polymer resin price.

Posted by Ncm88 > 2019-12-08 18:50 | Report Abuse

Everything was good until the fire nation attacked

Posted by Jeffbkt > 2019-12-08 19:25 | Report Abuse

I just don’t understand why everyone forget one very basic principle about stock market is that there is no guarantee. The different between good investor and the rest is that good investor has the investment strategy that has higher chance to win. There are so many different way of winning in stock market so long your strategy work in the long run and “consistently” provide you a good return years after years. So learn to be humble and respect others if they do have a good strategy be it TA, FA or whatever A. Is it necessary to criticise others just because you don’t like their way of investment ? How you know that your return is better than others ?

As for Tguan, do not generalise that the better result is purely due to low PE cost. Ask yourself have you really study enough of the company.

Posted by chl1989 > 2019-12-08 20:50 | Report Abuse

we started to buy at rm2.5, when we knew that how much polymer prices dropped yoy, way before the q results was out. My point is, if i purely looked at all these metrics roic roc etc, ignoring the fact that upcoming 2 quarters will be much much better yoy due to lower resin prices yoy, i wouldnt have bought. i think there is no point of us arguing. most of us bought tguan at 2.5, wont be here for years, not like you, had been holding flbhd from 1.5 to 3.5, then back to 1.5, square one, then slipped into losses. Even i sell now, i will get 40% roi. our strategy is completely different. you buy n hold for years. no right or wrong. but for tguan case, share price proved that our initial investment thesis is right.

Posted by chl1989 > 2019-12-08 20:58 | Report Abuse

for either price taker or price maker, whether their end users able to command them to give further discoount, of course yes, but how about the magnitude of the discount? you have to get to talk to film converters in person, u will understand the whole picture. i was lucky to have spoken to a few of them :)

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-12-09 04:08 | Report Abuse

Well, if you going to use share price as a way to prove you're right, which to me, is a clear breach in investing (rule no.1: process, not outcome), what can I say right.

Posted by chl1989 > 2019-12-09 09:16 | Report Abuse

LOL? salute. you enjoy the process and u dont bother whether you are making money or not. i rest my case.

Posted by chengcheekaan > 2019-12-09 09:24 | Report Abuse

Finally this thing come to an end, please don't argue anymore ok? LOL

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-12-09 11:28 | Report Abuse

Your explanation is like being dealt 19 on a blackjack game and hit another card of 2, and then 'that proved my initial thesis is right..''. One day you'll grasp the analogy of focus on the game, not on the scoreboard.

Posted by chl1989 > 2019-12-09 14:43 | Report Abuse

LOL? when you cant win, u confuse ppl with your words. let me translate what u said for you: "u guys win here short term, will lose elsewhere for sure." funny la u

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-12-09 15:30 | Report Abuse

Ricky,

Your patience is legendary.

===
Let me put things this way. I have no doubt that Ricky will end up very rich 10-20 years in the future.

As for some of you, i have no idea if you will even still be in the market then.

===

This year, what i tried really hard to learn is trading. And i don't think it suits me other than in certain scenarios, where the risk reward probabilities is so clearly skewed.

As for reading market sentiment, i'm not sure i want to go down that rabbit hole.

I much better at buying palm oil stocks on the way down and at the bottom. Not so good at buying it when its going up.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-12-09 15:39 | Report Abuse

To an extent icon etc is correct.

If earnings grow 30 times over the last 10 years with no dilution in shares, the share price should grow 30 times of more as well.

===

Now, when it comes to frying stocks for next year, the possibility of earning growth in the near term (regardless of how endurable it is) and the ability of your stock fryer to make a convincing story is key.

Chances are if you buy palm stocks now, you can ride it a bit till the next quarter. Now, will high palm price, result in lower demand, and thus lower prices in 6 months etc?

That one, you know can d, keep quiet, if other people also know, how to fry the price?

The key thing is to lead the lamb to slaughter.

And not swallow your own bullshit.

Posted by gemfinder > 2019-12-09 19:32 | Report Abuse

Stop showing off all your talent.. lets shout tguan to rm4 is more meaningful

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-12-10 07:45 | Report Abuse

Thank god!!!! He came here to enjoy the process and not to make money....nowonder keep criticise other people and never even give credit at all while the more he talk about ROC the more the price go up.


So as the choivo PLP....last time say icon is pump and dump now at there say icon is right. Please lar......dont become dont flip roti canai like politician a while say like this a while say lidat

_______________________________________
Ricky Yeo
1511 posts
Posted by Ricky Yeo > Dec 9, 2019 4:08 AM | Report Abuse

Well, if you going to use share price as a way to prove you're right, which to me, is a clear breach in investing (rule no.1: process, not outcome), what can I say right.

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-12-10 08:20 | Report Abuse

Ricky, you are full of bullshit that assumes he knows more because he read the philosophies of the great investors without having the skill to apply the knowledge efficiently.

Icon is correct: earnings growth is all the matters.

In fact, I simplify by adding my own triangle:

The only thing that matters in investing is

Earnings and revenue growth over time, while keeping shareholder value intact.

Any company can grow those things, and minimize all the debt, share placements, warrants sales and borrowings to grow earnings, those are most important.

But then again, your blog musingzebra tells a lot about you, all stories, no investments.

Contrast that to someone I do respect:

http://www.intellecpoint.com/p/position.html?m=1

Felicity blog where she buys, explains and clearly defines her quest to grow her children's college fund ( which I love), you can easily see the difference between academics and real world investors.

Stay in school kid. Happy holidays.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Dec 6, 2019 6:40 AM | Report Abuse

Icon wrote "earning growth...is the only thing that matters"

Supposedly today I meet up with Icon to discuss his statement above. Failing to settle our disagreement (because Ricky is too academic and Icon's ears are oozing blood), we decided to race each other.

On the next day, you saw a few headlines news "Ricky ran 2km, Icon only 1km"; "Ricky beats Icon"; "Survival of the fittest: Ricky prevails" etc.

Now, if you think at a deeper level, those headlines tells you nothing. The distance me and Icon covered says little to nothing about how fit we are. Because no one asked "How long does it take for us to complete those distances?"

If I told you it took me 5 hours to do 2km (400 meter per hour) and 1 hour for Icon to do 1km (1km per hour), does that change your mind about who is fitter?

Similarly, one company can grow 20% and the other only 10%, does it tell you which is better? No. It is meaningless. The question comes down to "How much capital is required to achieve those growth rate?" If a company doesn't need any capital to achieve 10% growth while the other needs to reinvest 100% earnings to achieve 20% growth, which company is better?

And that is what ROC is all about. ROC is not jargon academic shit that Ricky invented. I can give you a dozen of stock all with the same growth rate and you won't have a clue which one is better.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-12-10 08:54 | Report Abuse

Well if earnings growth is all that matter, I am happy to line up 100 stocks, each has 20% annual growth rate, enlighten me which one has the best prospect and explain your process. Thank you.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-12-10 08:58 | Report Abuse

Please give us the list

Please

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-12-10 09:30 | Report Abuse

Philip maybe you should stop reading Farnam Street because it is "all stories, no investments."

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-12-10 09:33 | Report Abuse

Thank god!!!! He came here to enjoy the process and not to make money....people nowadays very funny, come here wanna lose money not to make money

So as the choivo PLP....last time say icon is pump and dump now at there say icon is right. Please lar......dont become flip roti canai like politician a while say like this a while say lidat

_______________________________________
Ricky Yeo
1511 posts
Posted by Ricky Yeo > Dec 9, 2019 4:08 AM | Report Abuse

Well, if you going to use share price as a way to prove you're right, which to me, is a clear breach in investing (rule no.1: process, not outcome), what can I say right.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-12-10 09:41 | Report Abuse

Icon you don't need actual stocks to explain how you going to pick them.

I am full of bullshit but I can explain mathematically how an investor can earn 20% CAGR owning a stock that has 0% growth rate for the next 10 years. And I don't need real life stock to prove my point.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-12-10 09:42 | Report Abuse

ya please share the list

no need 100, give us 20 happy already

looking for ideas to punt

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-12-10 09:54 | Report Abuse

Maybe I should make the question easier: 5 stocks, growth rate of 20%, 15%, 10%, 8%, 5% respectively, which one would you pick and why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-12-10 10:07 | Report Abuse

If Connie ok I ok

Posted by UnicornP > 2019-12-10 10:33 | Report Abuse

This stock is currently the easiest stock in Bursa. Sales volume continue up, profit continue up, share price continue up.

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-12-10 12:33 | Report Abuse

Yes 5 enough oledi....last time before choivo become mamak flip roti canai also said the same thing to commonsense...i can name you 5 stocks which are cheaper than blablabla....while nw he stucked at petron unable to come out

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-12-10 12:38 | Report Abuse

One more thing i need to clarify...we all here to make money, and i believe icon here to make money too...not to enjoy the process, if wan enjoy the process u go genting...cash and carry....

crazy....first time i listen ppl vested into market not to make money but to enjoy....listed co boss list their company to enjoy...not to expand...enjoy the price ticker ticking...red green red green...recent ipo solarvest boss...revenue boss...all sitting at their office enjoying....enjoy the process of listing....enjoy knocking the ipo bell...CRAZY.....

____________________________________

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Dec 9, 2019 4:08 AM | Report Abuse

Well, if you going to use share price as a way to prove you're right, which to me, is a clear breach in investing (rule no.1: process, not outcome), what can I say right.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-12-10 12:45 | Report Abuse

Let’s wait for his 5 stocks

Posted by Investar2862 > 2019-12-10 17:26 | Report Abuse

Don't waste your time on silly matters :D))

Posted by Investar2862 > 2019-12-10 17:28 | Report Abuse

RY just wanted some attention to sell books.

We want to make money from KLSE

Posted by GLNT > 2019-12-10 21:51 | Report Abuse

When everyone is fighting, other people busy making money. Spend time wisely :p

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-12-11 10:22 | Report Abuse

He just wants to sell his members exclusive content and his short skirt guide to stock investing.

Those who can, do.
Those who can't, teach.
Those with no portfolio, and can't even teach.
Try to teach sports.

Come on, can't even do 5 stocks? At least give me so I can start tracking your portfolio performance over a 5 year period.

Instead of how you like to say you made money over this stock and that stock and whatever stock.

At least be brave and put your best foot forward.

I wrote about Pchem ( from 8.33 down to 7.06 but my thesis is completion of PIC in the next 3 years long term will recover to high price) but currently falling flat on my face.

I wrote about gkent( from 1.12 to 0.945 waiting for lrt3 recognition) but enjoying 7% dividends to wait and also falling flat on my face. Fyi I added 500k at 0.95 so a bit about conviction here.

I wrote about PPHB ( from 0.49 in January to 1.06) my brother-in-law who works in Penang for them laughing at me for the pump and dump article I wrote ( waiting for the hotel to complete, which it did, and double earnings in latest q), so semi flat on my face.

I wrote about stoneco ( from 22.19 in January to 38.91), which is my biggest investment, currently laughing to the bank.

These are the 4 stocks I wrote about this year with my perception on why I thought they were a good buy. I am notoriously picky with what I consider good and bad stocks, I argue with icon8888 and Calvin tan often. But I also respect their views and what they bring to the table.

Small concentrated investments.

You I realize have no views, only generic academia which doesn't turn any profit ( or loss)

Specifics: not generics.

Ball is in your court Ricky, try to man up and provide some actual stocks that you buy ( if no money still in school is ok, use imaginary money). Otherwise how else to achieve reputation?

5 stocks.

Yes?


>>>>>>>

https://musingzebra.com/

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-12-11 10:25 | Report Abuse

Not a single stock analysis in your blog btw.

Posted by probability > 2019-12-11 10:39 | Report Abuse

well said Philip - i sincerely hope Ricky considers your advice

Posted by probability > 2019-12-11 10:40 | Report Abuse

and his tail 'cute Jon'

Posted by popo92 > 2019-12-11 10:56 | Report Abuse

I did search his academic blogs and found some stock analysis like this https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/JTYeo/102021.jsp however, he didn’t update if the investment failed him or he’s still find his theory still work and happily averaging down. Ricky, I apologize for posting it again but my intention is not to discredit you with failed investments. We are here to learn from all possibilities including mistakes. I am looking forward with your 5 stocks with 20% cagr and yet fits all roic or whatsoever metrics. Hope you have a nice day