We maintain our BUY call, forecasts and fair value of RM2.47/share based on 18x revised FY23F EPS. We value KPower at a discount to the average forward 20x PE of leading renewable energy players globally to reflect: (1) KPower being a relatively new player in this space; and (2) its relatively small market value. No ESG-related adjustments to our fair value based on a 3-star rating as appraised by us (Exhibit 2). KPower has proposed a private placement of new shares of approximately 10.8% of its outstanding shares or 48.8mil shares at an indicative issue price of RM2.05/share. The RM100mil proceeds from this exercise are mainly earmarked for working capital (i.e. 50MW LSS4 power plant, mini hydropower plants and other upcoming projects). Based on our estimates, the gross proceeds of RM100.0mil will increase KPower’s net cash position to RM163.5mil (or 25 sen/share) from RM63.5mil (or 10.5 sen/share) as at 31 March 2021. Meanwhile, based on our calculation, the new shares will dilute its FY23F core EPS by 6% as a 10.8% expansion in the share base more than offset a 2% earnings enhancement arising from interest income (based on an interest rate assumption of 2%). Assuming the deal is to be completed, our fair value shall fall to RM2.33 based on the same valuation basis. We are neutral on this development. YTD for FY21F (June), KPower has secured jobs worth a total of RM1.2bil, which is still within our annual job wins assumption of RM1.4bil for FY21-23F (vs. KPower’s guidance of RM2.0bil for FY21F). The group’s outstanding construction order book stands at about RM2.0bil. We continue to like KPower for: (1) the bright prospects of renewable energy, underpinned by the global trends towards clean and sustainable energy and carbon neutrality to combat climate change; and (2) its strong earnings visibility and growth potential underpinned by its RM2.0bil order backlog on green utility projects, coupled with a massive tender book of RM3.4bil. At about 12x fully-diluted FY23F earnings, we believe that this homegrown renewable energy player has a compelling investment case given its involvement in the green sector where the growth trajectory is just beginning. Source: AmInvest Research - 25 May 2021
No so0chai will take up placement...unless the placement price very low & very attractive mah!
But then very bad for existing shareholders bcos placement price very low to be very attractive mah!
Posted by roger3210 > Jun 12, 2021 9:15 PM | Report Abuse
We maintain our BUY call, forecasts and fair value of RM2.47/share based on 18x revised FY23F EPS. We value KPower at a discount to the average forward 20x PE of leading renewable energy players globally to reflect: (1) KPower being a relatively new player in this space; and (2) its relatively small market value. No ESG-related adjustments to our fair value based on a 3-star rating as appraised by us (Exhibit 2). KPower has proposed a private placement of new shares of approximately 10.8% of its outstanding shares or 48.8mil shares at an indicative issue price of RM2.05/share. The RM100mil proceeds from this exercise are mainly earmarked for working capital (i.e. 50MW LSS4 power plant, mini hydropower plants and other upcoming projects). Based on our estimates, the gross proceeds of RM100.0mil will increase KPower’s net cash position to RM163.5mil (or 25 sen/share) from RM63.5mil (or 10.5 sen/share) as at 31 March 2021. Meanwhile, based on our calculation, the new shares will dilute its FY23F core EPS by 6% as a 10.8% expansion in the share base more than offset a 2% earnings enhancement arising from interest income (based on an interest rate assumption of 2%). Assuming the deal is to be completed, our fair value shall fall to RM2.33 based on the same valuation basis. We are neutral on this development. YTD for FY21F (June), KPower has secured jobs worth a total of RM1.2bil, which is still within our annual job wins assumption of RM1.4bil for FY21-23F (vs. KPower’s guidance of RM2.0bil for FY21F). The group’s outstanding construction order book stands at about RM2.0bil. We continue to like KPower for: (1) the bright prospects of renewable energy, underpinned by the global trends towards clean and sustainable energy and carbon neutrality to combat climate change; and (2) its strong earnings visibility and growth potential underpinned by its RM2.0bil order backlog on green utility projects, coupled with a massive tender book of RM3.4bil. At about 12x fully-diluted FY23F earnings, we believe that this homegrown renewable energy player has a compelling investment case given its involvement in the green sector where the growth trajectory is just beginning. Source: AmInvest Research - 25 May 2021
U see b4 Enron, Transmile and Hyflux issue had not blown out ,everybody agree will still agree the major shareholders and Ceo are capable & great like genius mah!
That is the problem, when the share price keep going up, everybody will ignore the inherent weaknesses & keep discounting the high debt & the operational risk as nothing mah!
Thus people should recognise the early warning sign of exceptional high debts as one of the potential disaster plus the relentless expansion of the company using debts, with no regards to the risk of weakened balance sheet bcos of the very high debts.
Therefore people should also always be very careful on similar company like Yinson as highlighted by sifu calvin on the potential risk, generally the the public will always feel willy nilly & complacent, when share price holdings up & when the business is showing growth loh..!
Remember to ask like warren buffet "what is the quality of earnings loh?" Pls Quietly leave party early the party, when everybody are very excited mah!
Posted by Sslee > Jun 13, 2021 11:09 AM | Report Abuse
wkc5657 Philip, after spending a few hours last weekend on the rough overview of scib, kpower, and serba dinamik, i gained some sense of your bullishness towards them. Your view is proven very right by your return on all these 3 counters, especially scib and kpower.
Just some rough thoughts, i didn't go deep detail and industry understanding to your level : 1) Karim is genuinely one of the rare role models of bumiputra business leader, more like syed mokhtar + ytl + ananda krishnan combined, with a hint of steroids. Really respect his ability in undertaking such complex operations and business deals and continue to grow serba's revenue and maintaining the margins. I read your article on your reasonings in investing into serba/scib/kpower 3 times over the period of 2 months, truly like you say, if Karim is non bumi (and maybe a less BM company name like Omni Dynamics?), there is less racial bias discount and probably a premium for company leader like this. I don't even think Tim Cook of apple can handle a company like serba dinamik. 2) judging by the turnaround of scib and kpower, the ability/connection of Karim and gang to win+inject contracts is bearing fruit. His management experience in serba dinamik really put into overdrive for the turnaround of 2 counters, a good showcase of Karim's deep abilities/connections. 3) 1 real surprise is their vendor acquisition transparency. For most big listed companies, to be their vendor, either they come to you, you have to market very hard to give your proposal, or you have connections. However for serba/scib/kpower, as long as you have the valid documentations, you can register through their website. A very good example for many companies actually. 4) i think serba dinamik have a 50% chance of requiring another private placement if the knock on effects of the current abu dhabi deals bring in more future contracts in the middle east.
Those people always drag kpower, giving free advice. Remember 《THIS WORLD NO FREE LUNCH》 ^^ If they dont like Kpower, can just leave this counter, dont need keep posting. So they can buy dip from ur stock ^^ Again NO FREE LUNCH IN THIS WORLD
With px now low low. Pp proposed earlier is not valid anymore. No one wil buy pp at high px. Unless pp at low px pulak, a lot of shares wil be isued to get the desired value. Very dilutive. If cancel pp, company dont hv cash flow to execute project. Very bad situation now.... runnnnnn
in order to get 100m cash from pp for its projects they will have to issue 94m shares at price of around 1.00 which represent 20% of the current outstanding shares available. you will get dilute at least 20% if let say someone is willing to buy the pp at this price where the chairman are having a potential audit fraud... this is a burning ship, either u jump or u get burn
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
benlooi123
20 posts
Posted by benlooi123 > 2021-06-12 17:41 | Report Abuse
This counter is gone. Cut loss.