Posted by Ivanka > 2020-03-20 13:20 | Report Abuse

KLCI top 1895 point , bottom 1217 point Fibonacci retracement ...Federal Reserve QE4 bearish end bullish come....cheers...................

Posted by Uranium > 2020-03-20 13:31 | Report Abuse

An investor must prepare both financially and psychologically for the fluctuations certain to occur in the market.

There are two ways an investor tries to profit from fluctuations:

1. Timing: Buy when you think the price will go up, and then sell once it goes up.
2. Pricing: Buy when the price is below fair value and sell once it reaches or exceeds fair value.

Consistent market timing is exceptionally difficult, as is evident by the countless market predictions and forecasts by industry professionals that differ from actual events by a wide margin. The variety of these predictions is great enough that an investor can make any move he chooses and find a prediction that supports this move.

Graham goes so far as to say it is absurd to think that the general public can ever make money out of market forecasting. There is no basis in logic or history to believe otherwise.

With regard to the pricing approach, Graham says that this is also extremely difficult to properly execute. Cycles often last for 5 years or more which causes people to lose their nerve and act irrationally. For example, in a prolonged bull market, people may fear being left behind, so they buy at the slightest indication of a bear market, feel vindicated as the prices escalate further, and then lose when the real bear market returns.

Also, any signals identified by experts to help determine whether this is a bear or bull market have been shown to be inconsistent in successfully identifying the position in the market cycle.

Conclusion: If you are banking on market fluctuations, you will not consistently perform well. Market fluctuations are not sound portfolio policy!

The intelligent investor uses a formulaic approach to determine whether stock prices have risen too high and he should sell, or prices have dropped significantly, and he should buy. Or, in other words, if he should alter the allocation of stocks to bonds in his portfolio (as per the tactical asset allocation policy that Graham discusses in previous chapters). The ideal approach is the rebalancing approach discussed in previous chapters (varying from 50-50 allocation to up to 75-25, and reviewing at set intervals throughout the year).

Business Valuation and Stock-Market Valuation

The stock market is paradoxical in that the highest grade stocks are often the most speculative because they gain great premiums over book value and are based more on the changing moods of the market and its confidence in the premium valuation it had put on the company in the first place. Thus, for conservative investors, they would be best to focus on companies with relatively low premiums placed upon them - a market rate no more than 1/3 above the net tangible-asset value.

However, a stock does not become sound because it can be bought close to asset value. The intelligent investor must also demand a satisfactory price-earnings ratio, sufficiently strong financial position, and the prospect of earnings being maintained over the years.

Intelligent Investors with portfolios close to the net tangible asset valuation of the underlying companies need worry less about stock market fluctuations than those who paid high multiples of earnings and assets. The intelligent investor should disregard the market price and not allow the mistakes that the market will make in its valuation to affect his feelings about the business. Do not let the market’s madness fool you into selling your shares at a loss - such a move requires reasoned judgment independent of the market price.

Posted by O'Brian > 2020-03-20 13:33 | Report Abuse

Very clever , so many sifu here........

Posted by LarrieChew > 2020-03-20 13:35 | Report Abuse

see my post, i also post sifu post

The Dow Is Rallying as Warren Buffett Buys the Stock Market Dip
The Dow Jones rallied back on Thursday as regulatory filings showed that billionaires like Warren Buffett are buying the stock market dip.

* Optimism emerged on Wall Street as stock market volatility finally dropped.
* The Dow Jones rallied back from three-year lows as billionaires like Warren Buffett and Carl Icahn started buying the dip.
* Dow bulls must still endure horrendous economic data over the coming weeks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) crept toward gains on Thursday as stock market bulls enjoyed a rare day of lower volatility.
Billionaire investors are eyeing China and starting to taste opportunity as the U.S. government begins to get its coronavirus outbreak under control.

The United States now has over 10,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus. Despite the alarming rate of spread, this was an expected result of the government ramping up COVID-19 testing.
While the Dow’s previous rallies proved to be classic dead cat bounces, optimists are taking a look at China’s ability to slow the spread of COVID-19 and getting quite bullish about the fact that this crisis has a limited time-frame.

Naturally, a sizable chunk of these glass-half-full folks are multi-billionaires with plenty of cash on hand.
Carl Icahn, Warren Buffett, and Carlos Slim have all dived into the battered stock market recently.

Posted by Wow123 > 2020-03-20 15:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Olga > 2020-03-22 01:38 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Olga > 2020-03-22 01:38 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Olga > 2020-03-22 01:39 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Olga > 2020-03-23 09:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by LarrieChew > 2020-03-23 12:33 | Report Abuse

Investing.com - U.S. stock futures plunged on Sunday, pointing to more mayhem when markets open on Monday.

-Dow futures plunge 900 points, or 5%
-S&P 500 futures tumble 5%
-Nasdaq futures sink 5%
-VIX jumps 11%

Posted by JessicaTan > 2020-03-23 12:47 | Report Abuse

let's c how the afternoon session goes, it could be stable or..

Posted by happylucy > 2020-03-23 12:50 | Report Abuse

closing lunch hour lower to 6cts trade ok...stp operator

Posted by Olga > 2020-03-23 15:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Olga > 2020-03-23 15:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Olga > 2020-03-23 15:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Uranium > 2020-03-23 17:57 | Report Abuse

yo yo yo hi, do not hope for the fast gain
but
i believe

if you are prepared to hold for long term
you got to look at the value
we had read Larrie chew post
Ageson is definitely a better buy

but, i think
this is more unlikely than the worry that the gloves factories got to close down for disinfection

Posted by Ivanka > 2020-03-23 18:00 | Report Abuse

YEAH Uranium, Like During a super-downtrend, what a trader need to watch up is the trend of lowest price each day, instead of intra-day's fake "rebound".
The trend had never rebound since Feb 20th to now and it is actually trending toward south. Many had under estimate the great recession + outbreak situation that we are in, it may drag for months or even year.I read that Dow future is regulated everyday to prevent massive falls. Now S&P & Dow should has hit limit down at 4% (curve is Flat ). I think they should regulate Trading limits too. Massive Dow falls is creating Havoc to Bursa next day....care lo

Posted by O'Brian > 2020-03-23 18:04 | Report Abuse

Agreed with you guys.

The only different is you are holding stock and add more .
I do not hold stock and only will buy when Ageson reach the bottom, at the point it reverse to golden crossover.

The golden rule for TA is :

Buy on uptrend, not downtrend.
Buy on golden crossover, not death crossover.

I follow rule, that's the only different.

Posted by O'Brian > 2020-03-23 18:04 | Report Abuse

oh look guys, there is a fly buzzing around, smack... hehe

Posted by 靓女 phoon phoon > 2020-03-23 18:07 | Report Abuse

https://news.yahoo.com/fujifilm-shares-soar-china-backs-drug-treat-vir...

The start of the stock falls is so fast but expect stock to jumps once China boost production of
this Drugs----the ends has Come ( Hiv drug is also effective but too damn expensive) This FujiFilm drug is just avian-Flu drug( no side effect and Chinese Co. got patent Rights )
----There is a cure now......Japanese FujiFlm (subsidiary) has found a cure for
corona-----Shares jump 15%( cannot Buy actually ---too many Orders )

Posted by LarrieChew > 2020-03-23 18:12 | Report Abuse

This cannot calm the market.............only a vaccine can calm the market!

vaccine, we need a proven vaccine.

Double smack, o'brian. I just hit a dirty fly!

Posted by happylucy > 2020-03-23 18:26 | Report Abuse

O&G"From the happy-go-lucky days of oil exploration and drilling, when a lot of easy sources were being found and easily managed, we're gotten ourselves into this sort of apocalyptic time. We're willing to destroy almost everything, risk almost anything, and go ahead with techniques for which we have no way of responding to the known problems."

Posted by mf > 2020-03-23 18:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Wow123 > 2020-03-24 08:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Wow123 > 2020-03-24 08:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Uranium > 2020-03-24 13:21 | Report Abuse

Many countries have gone through the exponential (explosion) phase but many others are heading towards the exponential curve like our country.


Our country is a bit different, around 1600 got hit at the same time with 10,000 running away from testing. We might have something worse than Iran or Italy coming soon.

China and US started vaccine test on human these few days. Seems that US is ahead of China by two days. Usually human trial takes 6 months to complete. China might shorten the testing phase. If it is shortened, countries outside China will not use the vaccine unless you are very desperate.

Posted by Ivanka > 2020-03-24 13:39 | Report Abuse

Uranium, all will be ok
living is cheap, just plant yam, rear chickens, kangkong, tilapia etc etc and wear white loin cloth like Tarzan.
Will live to 100+ coz all natural food and natural clothes

you should worry about yourself
even your clothes might have toxic dyes
eat toxic food
will have a short life

also you might the sack and come back with nothing in the sack

Posted by O'Brian > 2020-03-24 13:42 | Report Abuse

US Vaccine will arrive in September the earliest. China version may come a bit earlier.

By the time the vaccine comes, the virus might have mutated until vaccine(niah ma) also cannot recognize.

Posted by LarrieChew > 2020-03-24 13:48 | Report Abuse

Guys,if you are afraid of missing the boat, you can buy a bit at every sharp fall just to soothe the gatal feeling.

If this recession is super big, companies may merge or ...

Eventually things will be OK. Those cash rich companies will survive. Others will resort to additional listings to dilute the share price.

But when the corona thing is not resolved or subsided in the US, more room to fall. The longer it takes to get resolved, the chance of cash shortage is higher which put extra stress on all industry.

Watch out on Ageson... when getting a huge discount, .... the bottom is near.....time to sapu Ageson shares

Posted by LarrieChew > 2020-03-24 13:51 | Report Abuse

hehe this bangla came here is a nuisance, wrote bangla language nobody understand, looks like a bangla night market, not stock forum. Smack i hit a fly again

Posted by JessicaTan > 2020-03-24 13:58 | Report Abuse

KLCI in FOMO mode.

BNM last Thursday action is giving banks super confidence last Friday.

The last Friday surge is making many saliva coming out and cannot resist any downside in price as many think if they don't make money from stock market this week, the coming recession will KO many people.

It all depends on whether Trump can push market up tonight.

Since Trump's senators already sold 2 weeks ago, letting it drop further also never mind.

I don't think Trump need to push the market up. The use of "Chinese Virus" is good to justify any drops in stock market.

So many bad news in the West for the past few days and so many stimulus plans will wobble the market tonight.

I think the curve was already flattened long ago with slow testing.

If the 1600+ who are sick to be tested at once, there is no way it is a flattened curve. It should be a much more serious curve than Italy.

Since the Health Minister just announced they will do many testings from now on, you should see a surge in +ve cases in the coming days.

Posted by happylucy > 2020-03-24 14:04 | Report Abuse

this is not the end
this is not even the beginning of the end
this is more likely the end of the beginning
one day no success human trial no vaccine... remain away from stock
even after annoince of vaccine... still need to calculate the risk of reccession...

1929...here we come

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/19/bank-of-ameri...

Posted by happylucy > 2020-03-24 14:06 | Report Abuse

Two weeks movement control is definitely insufficient as those tested positive on the 14th day or 31 Mar may have infected many people but remains unknown then till following 1_ 14 days. A 30 days rightfully is a better solution.靠山山倒，靠人人跑，靠孩子吃草 。。。还是收茶养老最好

Posted by Uranium > 2020-03-24 14:08 | Report Abuse

道期又跌停板了，还没拿货，就拿几盒口罩吧

Posted by Ivanka > 2020-03-24 14:09 | Report Abuse

道期是US产品，就让它倒吧，让美国总统貉狼普吓个半死！
Uranium，别慌，马股已快到底了，在下50%就全玩完了。
我想应该又有多一波的反弹，在这兵慌马乱的世局，有小赢就该收兵回府了，免受埋伏全军被抹杀。
我想应该没第三波的回弹了。。。

Posted by Uranium > 2020-03-24 14:11 | Report Abuse

@Ivanka. 现在马股内忧外患，政府又勾结商家大捞一笔，看来是禁足到四月中了，到时店关厂关，老板们真的要找树上吊了。老板升天，小市民也发穷恶了！

Posted by JessicaTan > 2020-03-24 14:14 | Report Abuse

看到面子书一个中了招住吉隆坡的华人说，一个医生跟她说两个星期不可能解封因为政府现在医疗严重短缺。但几个小时前，卫生部长又公布，现在一切医药资源充足，一定有能力战胜这场瘟疫。忽然公布这个觉得有点不正常。

现在政府很敏感这个话题。

Posted by O'Brian > 2020-03-24 14:15 | Report Abuse

官讲的话也可以听，猪母也会爬上树了！总之就别期望太高！

Posted by JessicaTan > 2020-03-24 14:19 | Report Abuse

Covid 19 causing force-selling & free fall of index

Just a month ago, markets across the globe, particularly the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 were at all-time highs.

How things have change so drastically in a matter of weeks. It has been four weeks of pandemonium in the market.

Covid-19 has gripped the world, not just with its ability to spread disease quickly, but also to replicate fear and terror.

Governments around the world have hurriedly launched their respective stimulus packages to attempt to fight the contagion and collateral damage left in its aftermath.

However, judging by how financial markets have been hit by circuit breakers, limit-downs or even shut down, it’s safe to say that mass panic is the emotion ruling the day. Investors are not thinking about valuations any more.

The Dow Jones has fallen 32.7% from its peak of 29,569 on Feb 12, while the S&P 500 has also fallen 29.3%% from its peak of 3,386 on Feb 19.

Malaysia was not spared.

The FBM KLCI has been floundering since the 2014 general election. Since its peak of 1,887 on April 20,2018, the index has been on a slow downtrend.

From that peak, the market is down some 35% at the 1,219 level on Thursday. On a year-to-date basis, the FBM KLCI is down 23.7%.

In early February, it was the 1,500 level that was the support for the local index.

By end-February, it had to be the 1,400 level. By March 16, the 1,300 level was breached and the 1,100 level could be the next stop.

Force selling in Malaysia

The reasons for the FBM KLCI free fall are the margin calls and force-selling. Those who cannot cover their margin calls are forced to sell and the stock goes to a new low. This, in turn, triggers the margin call again, where prices again hit new lows, and more investors are affected. It’s a vicious downward spiral until the last of the weak sellers have been taken out.

What the market needs now is stability. It doesn’t need to go up. It just needs the margin calls to be contained, if not stopped.

So, at the market’s current level, are we close to that point?



What is patently clear is that tremendous values have emerged after the recent collapse. For example, Maybank, CIMB and Public Bank, the three leading Malaysian financial institutions, are trading at historical price earning ratios of nine times, seven times and nine times respectively. Dividend yields of Maybank and CIMB are between 7% and 8%.

There is so much value in well managed listed companies that it would be a fantastic time for major shareholders to take their companies private.

WHO announcement

The World Health Organization is working with scientists across the globe on at least 20 different coronavirus vaccines with some already in clinical trials in record time — just 60 days after sequencing the gene.

“The acceleration of this process is really truly dramatic in terms of what we’re able to do, building on work that started with SARS, that started with MERS and now is being used for COVID-19 ,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, the technical lead for WHO’s emergencies program, said at a press conference at the organization’s headquarters in Geneva on Friday.

My advice: There are already many announcements of the discovery of vaccine that can cure Coronavirus infection. As long as you do not have margin call, do not sell at this ridiculous price level.

Ageson price are very stable now, so its that time again guys!

Posted by Wow123 > 2020-03-24 14:48 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Wow123 > 2020-03-24 15:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Olga > 2020-03-24 16:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Wow123 > 2020-03-24 16:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Olga > 2020-03-24 16:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Olga > 2020-03-24 16:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Wow123 > 2020-03-24 16:58 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Wow123 > 2020-03-24 17:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Wow123 > 2020-03-24 17:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Wow123 > 2020-03-24 17:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Uranium > 2020-03-24 18:10 | Report Abuse

Singapore scientists study genes to fast-track Covid-19 vaccine

SINGAPORE: Scientists in Singapore say they have developed a way to track genetic changes that speeds testing of vaccines against the Covid-19 coronavirus that has killed more than 16,000 people worldwide.

The scientists, at the city-state’s Duke-NUS Medical School, say their technique needs just days to evaluate potential vaccines provided by Arcturus Therapeutics, an American biotech firm the school has partnered with for the trials.

That timeframe compares with the months usually required for testing based on human responses.

“You can know from the way the genes change - what genes are turned on, what are turned off,” said Ooi Eng Eong, deputy director of the school’s emerging infectious diseases programme.

Swift assessment of such changes triggered by a vaccine allows the scientists to determine its effectiveness and side effects, instead of relying solely on responses from humans who receive it, he added.

Currently, there are no approved medicines or preventive vaccines targeting the virus, with most patients receiving only supportive care, such as help with their breathing. Experts have said getting a vaccine ready could take a year or more.

Ooi said he plans to start testing vaccines in mice in about a week, with human trials expected in the second half of the year.

Pharmaceutical firms and researchers around the globe are racing to develop vaccines and treatments for the virus, which has infected more than 377,000 people.

These efforts include Gilead Sciences Inc’s experimental antiviral drug remdesivir and a plasma-derived therapy from Japan’s Takeda Pharmaceutical Co.

In a key step towards developing diagnostic methods, the Duke-NUS scientists helped culture the virus in late January, days after Singapore confirmed its first infection. That made it the third country, outside China, to culture the virus.

Another first was a test to detect virus antibodies even in those who had already recovered, crucial in containment efforts that have won global praise for Singapore.

From discovery to licensing, vaccine development in the past could take more than 10 years, but Ooi said science can now offer a much faster response.

“Everyone is racing ahead, but we are kind of writing the playbook as the game is being played,” he added. - eh do you guys see got fly buzzing around recently? smack smack, got one!