Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 17:10 | Report Abuse

how much do you all refer to fundamental news vis-a-vis your indicators?

Posted by bursabulltrader > 2012-10-29 17:21 | Report Abuse

Me purely on TA, but sth news do influences... :-)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 17:22 | Report Abuse

Basically today, i think you made a loss right bursabulltrader? when you jump in at 41 sens, but the indicators not ..err.. how do it put this..helping? how would that be helpful to a newbie to know especially when the indicators have not shown an overbought position?

sorry, i am not focusing on your loss, but any indicator or determining factor you bought at 41 sens? is it a possibility, its still a bet that it will rise? That's where FA is, when we consider to its value, but we cannot pinpoint as accurately (i think) as how TA analysts could get it!

Posted by djhchew > 2012-10-29 17:24 | Report Abuse

Price vs volume trend.. In Scomi's case, it is showing a Divergence..

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 17:27 | Report Abuse

The divergence acts as an indicator, correct?

price up, volume up will show bullishness

Posted by bursabulltrader > 2012-10-29 17:33 | Report Abuse

KC, no worry, my lost only RM3xx... just insect bite.. .hahaha...

when I was jump in I thought I wanted to hold up and I refer to overall trend, but after weekend do further study more specific, I feel not comfortable, and something is not right and give a chance for it to perform that's the reason I set my exit plan.

For now, it depend on 0.38/0.39 level, if this not able to hold, than prepare do dive further in the deep blue sea... and my 50% retracement will take place... (0.32/0.33).

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 17:36 | Report Abuse

ok.. sorry to hear about your loss.

i know i asked too many questions today, but let this be the last one: what is it that makes your uncomfortable? any indication(s)?

Posted by hoohaa > 2012-10-29 17:39 | Report Abuse

I like this culture of helping one another. The reason to why there's a forum for us all! Even I am benefiting from the questions! :)

Posted by djhchew > 2012-10-29 17:48 | Report Abuse

Yup.. divergence is the indicator for fundamental news..

This is when the compression point is used. In normal circumstances, the cup's handle will dip down but it did not for Scomi. Averaging at a price of 0.42 last week and there is no serious shake-outs.

Divergence can also mean internal play.

This shows that someone is accumulating and something is about to happen.. :)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 18:01 | Report Abuse

yes i agree there is internal play. That's how i see it fundamentally in the management play. one very livid group is trying to keep price down to get into majority stake. probably raising fund is an issue. if the price goes up as it is, their cost becomes high and stakes becomes dearer to purchase. this is not common market buying and selling as the volume will tell us. pound-for-pound, dollar-for-dollar match up as i see it!

in your case, there is no serious shake-out, but in bursabulltrader's case a potentially major shake is probably in progress leading to today's downtrend in price in the first place (bursabulltrader, you can correct me here). this shake will probably extend further if the price breach below 39 sens support. is this in "as per basis" which means its according the the time factor at the moment?

Posted by djhchew > 2012-10-29 18:05 | Report Abuse

You can get an indication from the GMMA or MACD (Moving Average Convergence - Divergence) charts.

Cause for alarm:

Long term goes above short term for GMMA and long term goes below short term for MACD.. Attention will be given once they start to cross.. :)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 18:12 | Report Abuse

that's where i am lost :)

Posted by djhchew > 2012-10-29 18:43 | Report Abuse

Here's an example of GMMA:

http://www.tradermike.net/2004/05/another_look_at_multiple_moving_averages/

You can download it from here and it will update everyday:

www.chartnexus.com

:)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 18:50 | Report Abuse

Good. Thank you.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 18:56 | Report Abuse

Scenario : Suppose a banking investment group wants to buy over Scomi with open market purchase of 25.01%, market rise in tandem from 40 sens today to let's say (ahem) 62 sens. The group agrees to write off debt. This was done rather quickly and in a matter of one week, the deal was done. How do you think GMMA will be like? more importantly, how would your ATR calculation be like?

if this numbers helps, you can utilize them:

And on the 25/9/12,
Open = 0.36
High = 0.39
Close = 0.38


p.s. Should we set exam questions?

Posted by tommylou > 2012-10-29 19:00 | Report Abuse

Kc you are a very complex individual

Posted by DUnkin > 2012-10-29 19:24 | Report Abuse

today scomi =_=

Posted by djhchew > 2012-10-29 20:15 | Report Abuse

If it was a Banking Investment group, then for sure we won't be informed but we can notice the RSI increasing and for GMMA, short term trend signals will start to open up indicating an accumulation. As of today, RSI dipped from 61.4% to 50% and showing signs of distribution and GMMA's short term is dipping down towards its long term trend.

By the way, when was the agreement?

If it is based on 25/9/12's low, it is going to be 0.36 for short term. If the volume is an increasing trend and it is in the news, then i will multiply ATR by 3 which means 0.54.

If the agreement is done lately, then the ATR would be 0.48 and if the volume is an increasing trend and is in the news, i would increase it to 0.72

:)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 20:41 | Report Abuse

My understanding, you are taking the average movement of the price to the number of trading days previously, thereafter the average is multiply with subsequent movement of price towards the actually closing price 62 sens. Correct? Is RSI % differwnce a factor in this calculation? Also what about the debt write-off?

I do like your crystallization of GMMA theorem. Will look up your postings more since you can give a clarity to your calculations.

Posted by ashrizal1 > 2012-10-29 21:03 | Report Abuse

Guy guy, u all discussing complicated mater here, something i just partially understand, my firrst reading about studying stock market is inteligent Investor, write by B.Graham arround 1976 reprinted several time and i own the revised edition wipreface and note by Buffet, also Phil Fisher "common stock uncommon profit" both i found so helping and verry unchanged stock investing principe since 1920 and still relevant till this day.

a beginer like me, by making 22% in Scomi and another 21% in scomien and about 10% at various stock i trade earlier. having 40% capital growth in just 4 month where (opened my CDS Acc on Jun this year)a condition make me realy understand how a rich be richer this way.

Posted by bursabulltrader > 2012-10-29 21:06 | Report Abuse

KC, the main haunted me is 50% retracement agak agak around 32/33...(I still doubt it will ignore) the 2nd is the 0.43 hitting too many times without progress. This two already make me uncomfortable.

Most of time I tend to see chart pattern rather than indicators and end up able to sense which price direction can go... hehehehe.... Even I mention 38/39 is support, I still doubt it can tahan tembak as I feel it need at least push down till 0.33~0.35 level...well this just my six sense and feeling....hahahahaha... Hope I am right...

If the trend turn back to good, i will join in again... I have use to in and out... :-)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 21:10 | Report Abuse

No harm knowing someone's method if he had said it works for him! Whilst it good to be grounded on Graham's and Fisher's rules, its not wrong to observes how market thinks also, right?

40% capital returns, tak ajak KFC pun?

Posted by ashrizal1 > 2012-10-29 21:13 | Report Abuse

for me simple Chart, financial report, and a bit of guess and speculative before decide the stock i want to pick really help but event i try my best i stiill stuck with 2 counter TGOFFS and XDL luckily my XDL in Uptrend now, but TGOFFS still sleep :{

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 21:14 | Report Abuse

I understand scomi's earnings announcement is 29 November, still have some leeway for your tembaking :). Usually market corrects itself, but then we are in perilous times now! :)

Posted by ashrizal1 > 2012-10-29 21:17 | Report Abuse

KC come to KK lets enjoy Ikan Bakar, healthy and less Fat:}

40% what la, compare to u steady since 0.21 now at least 100% already

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 21:23 | Report Abuse

Mine cannot compare la. I play so long in market already. My first year loss. You have to average out total % return to your capital, which to me is the real deal. Everyone starts somewhere, might as well be level playing field in return of capital!

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 21:26 | Report Abuse

Worked in KK two years. Stayed in Marina court, near API-API centre :). Can't say I really enjoy it, but I guess it has changed a lot since 2003 I think :)

Seafood is good though :)

Posted by bursabulltrader > 2012-10-29 21:28 | Report Abuse

Been checking few O&G counter ALAM, PERISAI, PERDANA, most of them are in top price, looks like all will going for correction for sometime...Mmmmmmm

Posted by ashrizal1 > 2012-10-29 21:35 | Report Abuse

2003 i just finish my SPM, yes KK change a lot since that.;]

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 21:42 | Report Abuse

25 y.o. only... hahaha... ok if ever i am in KK again, will holla you!

Posted by ashrizal1 > 2012-10-29 21:45 | Report Abuse

ashrizal1@yahoo.com.my just email me KC Sure event free ride for u :]

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 21:46 | Report Abuse

you can send me an email please to lkc121@walla.com and i will keep you in the loop! :)

Posted by djhchew > 2012-10-29 21:58 | Report Abuse

Here's a link about ATR:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average_true_range

you need not do the calculations as it is already in the chart software..

Yes, RSI does determine the price factor.

To be sure, I will put the ATR outcome against the company's P&L and it's EPS..

Ashrizal, I did read Benjamin Graham's book too.. but, somehow... I just need numbers and charts to satisfy myself. I just can't make a decision without them... :)

Posted by kashaha68 > 2012-10-29 21:58 | Report Abuse

Scomi will sign small field contract on Thursday

Posted by ashrizal1 > 2012-10-29 22:00 | Report Abuse

done sending already;}

Posted by ashrizal1 > 2012-10-29 22:05 | Report Abuse

Djhchew, no mater what method we use as long its work for us it should not a problem right ;]

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 22:06 | Report Abuse

Thanks djhchew... you are cool!

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 22:12 | Report Abuse

kashaha68, do you have the link?

Posted by kashaha68 > 2012-10-29 22:21 | Report Abuse

Pls wait on Thursday.... I can confirm 100%, signing ceremony @ 3pm

Posted by Ng Kai Yau > 2012-10-29 22:24 | Report Abuse

Only 1 field right kashaha68?

Posted by pathew > 2012-10-29 22:24 | Report Abuse

Lol, inside info ah?

Posted by rocket > 2012-10-29 22:24 | Report Abuse

Kashaha68, sure or not ?

Posted by rocket > 2012-10-29 22:26 | Report Abuse

Ng, what do u mean one field ?

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 22:26 | Report Abuse

Abu & Co running out of time! kahahaha...fireworks next two days if kashaha68's prediction is true!

Posted by Ng Kai Yau > 2012-10-29 22:27 | Report Abuse

ya, KC. they beat petrofac

Posted by Ng Kai Yau > 2012-10-29 22:28 | Report Abuse

hopefully will annouce on thursday, dont drag

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-29 22:29 | Report Abuse

hahaha.... let's see now if one or two hehehe....

Posted by rocket > 2012-10-29 22:30 | Report Abuse

KC :)

Posted by Ng Kai Yau > 2012-10-29 22:31 | Report Abuse

hahahahahah, abu & partner

Posted by kashaha68 > 2012-10-29 22:33 | Report Abuse

1 cluster i.e > 1 field. I'm 100% sure, I know the cluster name but can't tell u all. Their foreign partner start frm Q....