TH Heavy has recently refurbished their yard, expanding its capacity to 20,000mt from 10,000mt, and more importantly, raised their load-out capacity to 12k mt, from 2.5k mt.
The group’s latest outstanding orderbook is at a record high of RM400m and will last them into mid-2015. Going forward, with the upgraded yard, we view the group capable of growing their orderbook up to a maximum of RM1.2bn.
With active tendering activities on-going with McDermott, as well as a growing successful delivery track record with oil majors like Shell, Murphy Oil, and soon Petronas Carigali,
we view that orderbook growth is imminent. We expect another RM300m orders to be secured for FY14, and another RM850m in FY15.
The DP1 FPSO is currently 85% complete and the group has been actively bidding for contracts for the vessel in Malaysia and South East Asia.
It was recently reported on Upstream Online that TH Heavy could be lined up for the JX Nippon Layang field on a 7-year contract.
Whether or not TH Heavy secures this contract, we believe that a long term FPSO contract like this could be worth in excess of RM1bn and be a major boost to earnings going forward,
perhaps from FY15 or FY16 onwards. For now, we have only assumed the vessel to commence a bareboat charter in late FY15. Thus, it could surprise on the upside if it starts earlier.
TH Heavy hopes to eventually bring yard capacity four times higher to 80,000mt via acquisition of more yard space in Pulau Indah.
This would put them on more level playing field with local heavyweights like SapuraKencana and MMHE and allow them into the market for Central Processing Platforms (CPP) which are large contracts worth RM1.5-2bn each.
Initiating coverage with BUY, TP of RM1.24
Just from ramping up utilisation at their yard to 95%, and 40-60% utilisation of the DB30, TH Heavy could turn in an EPS CAGR of 92% over the FY13-FY15 period.
An FPSO contract, or increased yard space, would provide further boost to future earnings.
With this promising outlook and also on the back of a vibrant tendering market for fabrication jobs, we initiate coverage on TH Heavy with a BUY recommendation and TP of RM1.24, implying an upside of 19.9%.
This is based on FY15 EPS pegging a target P/E of 15x, on par with mid-cap peers.
no fifi...now dun even have the mood to find out what is the problem...FOREX is the problem last time...anw the invested is not is use....i just keep it is the fridge and see what will happen next year...lol..
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Joel
4,580 posts
Posted by Joel > 2014-02-26 06:43 | Report Abuse
RM400m orderbook and ready for more
TH Heavy has recently refurbished their yard, expanding its capacity to 20,000mt from 10,000mt, and more importantly, raised their load-out capacity to 12k mt, from 2.5k mt.
The group’s latest outstanding orderbook is at a record high of RM400m and will last them into mid-2015. Going forward, with the upgraded yard, we view the group capable of growing their orderbook up to a maximum of RM1.2bn.
With active tendering activities on-going with McDermott, as well as a growing successful delivery track record with oil majors like Shell, Murphy Oil, and soon Petronas Carigali,
we view that orderbook growth is imminent. We expect another RM300m orders to be secured for FY14, and another RM850m in FY15.