Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-12 14:24 | Report Abuse

A true experience.

Long ago before the 2008 subprime problems that affect world markets, I used to pray, My Good Lord, give me a break, give me the luck and opportunities. Whatever I have are all due to my blood, sweat and tears to earn it the hard way, where is my luck and opportunities.

Day in and day out, i sleep as much as i want to, wake, have a cup of coffee in a nice place, having deep thoughts. Finally my prayers were answered. I knew what I have to do. After the subprime market crash KLSE, I emerged a much much better financially. People were asking how I did it, how come you are so lucky and have all the opportunities that I don't. Nope, I didn't have any luck still. The opportunities were still not given by any Datuks or rich man, and if there is any opportunity, it is such that any man in public will have. So why the difference they asked.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-12 14:25 | Report Abuse

To be continued .........

Posted by connie > 2014-04-12 14:46 | Report Abuse

:D

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-12 14:59 | Report Abuse

Continued ...

I thought of a lot of things that different people behaved. For example if I ask a salaried executive, what do you think of this business. His reply first 1. Any risk? Mitigation? second thing 2. Feasibility study.... I said oh no, oh my god, wait how many years for that? THen I ask a less educated successful businessman, his reply first 1.Profit how much? second thing 2. Hentam..........
That made me think out of the box.. If I continue doing things the conventional way, collecting bits and pieces, how many more years can I do that before I trash my life.

During the subprime crash, Malaysian properties and fundamental shares became dirt cheap, and I sign on the dotted lines for properties real cheap, panic sell, I snap up tons of cheap shares (KLCI-850).

Know what ... the key word in the difference between me and the rest of my friends who didn't make it... READINESS..

They had the same public opportunities but they were not ready. They were tied up and hit badly. I amass lots of cash and got ready for it.
Have a deep thought about what I say ....

End

Posted by connie > 2014-04-12 15:01 | Report Abuse

:D :D ... budweiser !!

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-12 15:05 | Report Abuse

LOL, now we can have Budweiser.... connie

Posted by Marvyn Choong > 2014-04-13 20:06 | Report Abuse

Firebird2, thanks for sharing your experiences. I agreed with your point of view.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-13 20:44 | Report Abuse

Marvyn, welcome. I learn a lot from others, so its fair I share mine too. Come in to discuss anything if you wish to. Thx

Posted by Gladys > 2014-04-14 14:50 | Report Abuse

FB2:Good sharing,liked :)

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-14 14:54 | Report Abuse

Thx Gladys and welcome. Feel free to come in here to discuss anything you wish.

Posted by madguy > 2014-04-15 03:39 | Report Abuse

btw i plan to buy this counter ... any comment ?

Posted by Hustle > 2014-04-15 13:16 | Report Abuse

This Chew Chee Chek dispose lots of his load, any issue with this dude?

Posted by pgboy88 > 2014-04-15 14:08 | Report Abuse

anyone of you have news on the progression for the new factory?

Posted by danchong > 2014-04-16 11:19 | Report Abuse

It is sad to notice that Alex Chew continue to sell down his hoildings in the company. However, If he find better investment than his holdings in Wellcall, I wish his well.

I have not been to the site recently, my understanding is that piling will start next month. Will check next week.

Posted by danchong > 2014-04-16 11:22 | Report Abuse

FB2, I know where you are coming from. It is always good to be safe than sorry. I agree we have to be ready when the market crush.

However, I prefer to focus on building a solid portfolio than to worry about market crush.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-16 11:39 | Report Abuse

DC,

My cash reserves are only at 22% of the amount of investment capital (that I intend to invest), hardly ready for a crash. LOL. Minor correction maybe.

I admired your use of leverage, as I do use leverage too (margin) in investment and also the time when we can buy properties and sell them. We just pay a small initial amount.

I also admired your guts really. Guts is what we need at times, during bulls and during bears too, when we have the opportunities to buy cheap, when others are fleeing, we must have the guts to do so.

Both leverage and guts, I would say you have more than a 100%.

We may have one more ... that could help us,, READINESS ...

How about that ...

Thx DC

Posted by danchong > 2014-04-16 14:36 | Report Abuse

So much have been said about greed & fear in the market. It is not easy to conquer that.

I am not a gutsy guy. I make it a point not to chase stock. I refrain from break-out play. I buy when the price retrace back to trendline support. If it does not, I let it go.

By doing so, I don't believe we can avoid hurt by a crash but we should be able to sail through minor correction and emerge stronger each time it happens.

Greedy when the market is down! We can only do that if we know the stock we intend to buy well. Well enough to be confident that it can bounce back when crisis is over or it is not affected by the crisis at all.

Readiness - I doubt that we can be fully prepared when the crash comes.

Posted by nicole76 > 2014-04-17 09:25 | Report Abuse

1.45 barrier broke ?

Posted by pgboy88 > 2014-04-17 09:39 | Report Abuse

Don't worry the disposal from Alex Chew is in married deal....the rest major share holders are still intact.

Posted by nicole76 > 2014-04-17 09:43 | Report Abuse

Not worried in fact it i think it's a positive thing as he is selling off right now at bottom price to share out to the public to invest in the company. Prior to this hardly any units movement in the market so at least now got for volume for public to invest in ;)

Posted by alexyap > 2014-04-17 09:58 | Report Abuse

is the PE of 18 considered high for this company? Any peer can be used as reference?

Posted by nicole76 > 2014-04-17 10:02 | Report Abuse

Look at ROE instead of PE..ROE consistently increasing year after year. Profit also increasing steadily eventhough revenue not consistent. Therefore, it shows their finance management very very strong. If Alex Chew wanted to dump all his share he could have made a panic and sell really bottom out but he continuously sell at the same price for investors to go in at a very good price ;)

Posted by chipster1234 > 2014-04-17 10:24 | Report Abuse

FB you sound like a truly experienced investor. Any chance you could tell us what other shares you are holding?

Posted by firebird2 > 2014-04-17 12:00 | Report Abuse

chipster1234, yup ok, I will share. Since I gain a lot of knowledge from others here, its payback time.

Sorry for the delay, just back from a short golf game. Come to think of it, investment is a bit like golf. How many of us can hit 18 perfect tee shots. When 1 gets out of the way, do we have a good recovery technique. How about the short games (chipping and putting),more like short term trading (my worst part). Any golfers comments?

madguy, better to learn more of the company if you plan to put money in,.
Hustle, look more at the company performance and future rather than a director, there are many other big shareholders.
pgboy,, DC has answered.
alexyap, Nicole has given a very good answer.
DC, thanks for your generous sharing and views.

My core investment

Fully loaded -
1.Wellcal
2.CBIP
3.PJDEV/Warrants
4.Gadang/Warrants

50-70% loaded.
5.Prestariang
6.Aeon
7.Protasco
8.Pintaras
9.LPI
10.Johotin
11.Superlon
12.LTKM

Forget about my short term trading counters, all of them sell salted duck eggs and already sou thong (tutup kedai).

Please do comment if any, thx

Posted by chipster1234 > 2014-04-17 12:33 | Report Abuse

Dear FB
I love your list. im fully loaded on your top 3 unfortunately I treated gadang as a short term gamble much to my regret. i don't think it would be a good time to go in again.

i have always thought of johotin but the word "tin" always put me off as my whole family business went down the drain during the tin crash 20 years or so ago. i know i shouldn't let that put me off but i guess i can put it solely down to tin phobia. (haha)

CBIP is awesome by the way. wish their dividends are higher though

Posted by chipster1234 > 2014-04-17 12:39 | Report Abuse

Nicole 76: thanks for your input too. it's tough to reduce all my counters to just ten shares as I inherited rubbish shares from my gran when she was an avid gambler. so all of them are making huge losses now. I remember my gran passing her chance up on nestle saying that "they are only producing milk" - how wrong is she now. haha.

I love your idea with NTPM and stemlife. I myself am holding this for long term.

for everyone's info im holding the following:

Stemlife
Axiata
BIMB
Boustead
CIMB
CBIP
DIGI
IGB Reit
Instaco
Maybank
MBSB
NTPM
NSOP
Pantech
Pavreit
Pchem
PJDEV
Prtasco
RHB
Rview
Skpetro
TSH
TWReit
United Malacca
Wellcall

and my rubbish trades are
censof
MRCB
Mkland
UEMS
YTL

Posted by firebird2 > 2014-04-17 12:52 | Report Abuse

chipster1234, yes I understand, my guess was at that time, there was this Tin Quota, imposed on producers and therefore in Malaysia, tin mines have to close shop as they cant get the permits to sell, and due to that oversupply price subsequently dropped. Those tin mines have to switch to rearing ducks, papaya growing, arowana, etc..that effect to this day is felt.

Johotin produces tin cans and milk/milk products these days. I have been very patient with it LOL. I don't know, I couldn't get a clear view yet.

Posted by firebird2 > 2014-04-17 12:59 | Report Abuse

chipster1234, wow, I like a lot of the counters you put up there, but I don't have that much money to keep that many. Thx for sharing with us your counters.

A lot of them should be earning big money for you now, I think, looking at the list, no doubt. Most of them are quite stable as it includes some Reits.

I think some of them have great potential, so now that your gran pass on to you, hope you can realign and make good use of the idling money to make even more. Tough job but reading from what you wrote, I believe you are capable.

Btw, Nicole, mind sharing yours?

Thx chipster1234

Posted by chipster1234 > 2014-04-17 13:10 | Report Abuse

Hi FB....thank you for your kind words. regarding johotin, there was some chatter I think late last year about them acquiring something. a factory or some sort. I got to know about johotin because of the following thinking:

I'm in R&D. My previous company was for a food emulsifier company. and my god the amount of work I had to do to reduce cost on our palm based emulfiers is astronomical.

hence I begin my search for emulsifier companies. only a few came up like KLK and PPB. SAB was also one of them. so I did a second search for food companies. johotin popped up and thatz how I was looking at it from afar.

Just out of contect...when I was looking at SAB it was merely 2 something with a dividend yield of 6% (par value rm 1) so that was attractive but at that point mom was hugely against it. I quote " that share cannot move one" . sigh!!!!!!

Posted by connie > 2014-04-17 13:14 | Report Abuse

hi firebird, wat happened to your short term trading counters ??? sell salted duck eggs already ??? :( nothing to cheers with budweiser ??

"Forget about my short term trading counters, all of them sell salted duck eggs and already sou thong (tutup kedai)"

Posted by firebird2 > 2014-04-17 13:24 | Report Abuse

chipster1234, Yah there was this news on Johotin having bought a piece of land near Klang port (north, south, west port?) and planning to build a factory there to cater for export, and is also a warehouse. So some of the production will be moved there to save on logistics as well. Information is hard to come by so .... that's why I say I cant get a clear view ... and am in a holding pattern for a longer time till I know more.

You got a good job though tiring, interesting job.. from there you get to learn more about some public listed companies too, lets hope CBIP's plantations will grow to be the likes of KLK, PPB and branch out into downstream activities so you get to know more of your interest (shareholdings) in CBIP too.,

yeah rite, SAB price surge was amazing, but I guess theres value too in it. how much more it can go, nobody knows, it has came down a bit, I put in my watchlist,,just trying to find some counters which can put some significant price appreciation going forward ... while mindful of a hugh drop in price when they show poor quarterly figures..

Thx for sharing, chipster1234

Posted by firebird2 > 2014-04-17 13:30 | Report Abuse

connie, really sell salted duck eggs.
cant make money lo... so I still need to complete my game so I still learning, how nice if earn money daily.
Each time, I don't have the speed, and end up become salted duck egg and need to sell.
So now, better I sou thong for the time being and go learn, parabolic, bomoh coconut, box theory, VSA, CS, waves. etc etc, then later only hoi thong again,
For now, core investment still ok, so here I come sou thong have a Budweiser.

Thx connie

Posted by connie > 2014-04-17 13:39 | Report Abuse

firebird, u should visit matrixcool's thread. he has a simple trading strategy that works effectively. learning too many ta indicators can be confusing. besides matrix, there is also another great guy "profitman" who excels in both ta and fa. profitman also frequents the same thread :D

Posted by chipster1234 > 2014-04-17 13:42 | Report Abuse

Hi connie: I think firebird was being really tactful in his previous post. im sure he knows all that already. hahaha :P

Posted by connie > 2014-04-17 13:48 | Report Abuse

hi chipster, i think so too yeah ??? firebird is just being humble ... ps forgive my ignorance :D

Posted by firebird2 > 2014-04-17 13:48 | Report Abuse

connie, ok thanks, I will pay more attention to those mentioned by you. and see how its being done. Agreed, it really confused me trying to understand more. and worst read it wrongly haha LOL. I have sold all, just increase my investment cash reserve.

chipster, honestly I really don't know about TA. Its true. Other than looking at charts on uptrend, downtrend, really I don't use other TA methods. I wish one day, when I am good, I can earn money daily doing some trading, but for now , really sou thong for the time being till I understand more. Then I can have a complete game.

Posted by connie > 2014-04-17 13:59 | Report Abuse

firebird, when u are ready to trade one day, then we can learn together :D in the meantime, be an awesome investor !!!

Posted by firebird2 > 2014-04-17 14:09 | Report Abuse

connie, should be we can trade together. since you already learned. so once I learn up, then we can trade together. Its better to join with your more experience.
Meanwhile I just slow down. But yes, still a investor. My mom use to say, man if no side luck, can never be rich ( yan mo wang choi, but foo), so need to invest.
At the same time, my mom also say, 3 ngai chai (shortie) come together, fire burn the sky. LOL
We have Ukraine crisis, world cup, the third one? so lets keep some cash in case 3 shorties come together, fire burn the sky.

Posted by connie > 2014-04-17 14:21 | Report Abuse

firebird, wud be a pleasure to trade and make money together one day. once money made, then we can cheers with f & b (foster n budweiser) :D

Posted by firebird2 > 2014-04-17 14:28 | Report Abuse

connie, yes that will be the day,,, hahaha LOL, yes yes sure, f&b Foster and Budweiser. Getting thirsty too,.. thx for the advice, will learn.

Posted by nicole76 > 2014-04-17 17:33 | Report Abuse

HI Firebird, i only invest in companies that have high ROE like PBB-01, Nestle, Harta, Presbhd, Dsonic (i sold off before it went below my cost) and switch to Wellcal, potential companies that is growing in ROE like Stemlife and NTPM. I also invest in Pharm which ROE is not fantastic but i like to keep a pharmaceutical company based on future demands on consumers also because they don't have a lot of units floating in the market making it more stable. Keep your Portfolio to 10 only then it's easier to manage and monitor. Short term profits i made, i used it to grow my Portfolio above.

Posted by nicole76 > 2014-04-17 17:38 | Report Abuse

Hi Chipsters, becareful of holding too many stocks, better to consolidate to those more stable ones. Because if there is any sudden market crash the first ones to go are those that have very low ROE... cause they don't have the funds to grow and sustain their companies during the difficult time. That's why a lot of companies in 1997 & 1998 market crash got busted.

Posted by danchong > 2014-04-18 03:57 | Report Abuse

Fb2, good to know you are a golfer. If you want a game in RPGC,Ipoh. Call me.

We have 6 common counters out of the 12 I have. Incredible!

Agree with Nicole, good ROE makes wellcall a fundamentally great stock. PE 18 does indicate that the stock is richly valued. However, it is compensated by high dividend pay-out policy. In fact, one of the highest in Bursa.

Chipsters, if you don't mind, I also think 20+ is too much a handful.

Fb2, I am looking seriously into bkawan,Tomypak,Hevea,Gkent & zhulian. Any comments?

Posted by danchong > 2014-04-18 08:08 | Report Abuse

Nicole, take a look at ccmdbio

Posted by nicole76 > 2014-04-18 08:47 | Report Abuse

Hi Danchong, yes have taken a look into that before too :) Still prefer Pharma due to many reasons.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-18 09:46 | Report Abuse

Gmorning,
Nicole, thank you for your reply, I will take some time to think about the issues you mention. Besides good ROE, I consider as important is whether the price will appreciate.
DC, are you single handicap? Yes ok.
Amazing that 6 out of 12 I mentioned are the same counters that you have. Not easy to see such things, seem like DNA matching LOL
Out of the 5 counters you mention, only 3 catches my eyes, Gkent, Hevea and zhulian, they may have good prospects, but I am also looking at whether it is the correct time to go in.
chipster, mutual funds like Public Mutual has a maximum allocation of 5% per counter, so basically that's to say, any particular fund need to be spread out to 20 counters. I don't have any opinion of 20+ counters.

Posted by danchong > 2014-04-18 10:14 | Report Abuse

Morning FB2, my handicap is 16 since 2000. Not serious in golf anymore, happy to score a bogey each hole.

Well, we can have a DNA test to see if we are lost brother. Ka ka ka

Posted by danchong > 2014-04-18 10:16 | Report Abuse

Hi Nicole, Not much knowledge about Pharma, I think Pharma is bigger than CCMDBIO. Can you tell me some of your reasons?

Hope to find time to research more into Pharma next week.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-18 10:23 | Report Abuse

DC, haha, yup, same also, not serious at all in golf anymore.
About Zhulian, I work out the PE going future, some estimation and assumption, seems quite uncertain for now, and am unwilling to commit now, yes, profits are down, be mindful too , that Zhulian has very healthy balance sheet too. They can stand up to current turbulence, I am sure.
Gkent looks good presently with their involvement in MRT, but I am unclear if how many more quarters can be like that good.
Hevea look set to clear their remaining debts with increasingly good Rev and profits. But will it put that finishing touch finally? I like to see a bit more first.
Just to add my comments that you ask for. Just another persons perspective.

Posted by danchong > 2014-04-18 10:46 | Report Abuse

Zhulian looks like the kind of company to buy. I spent the last 2 hours (1.45am to 3.45am) reading through the last 2 Qs results, annual reports, reseach papers, i3investor forum and chart.

Good balance sheet, profit margin, dividend and cash in hand.

Buy?

NO !

It is simply still overvalue at RM2.70.

1) At best, it is going to make only 16 sens (EPS) for FY14 = > PE 16.875. The EPS for 1st Q = 3.73 x 4 = 14.92p.a..

2) At best, Dividend = 4 x 3 sens = 12 sens => yield 4.4%. They will be struggling to do that without capex.

3) No sign of improvement in Thailand. No profit contribution forecast from Indochina. I simply cannot rely on luck?!?

4) The chart shows that the knife is NOT laying on the floor. The counter is actively looking for new lows.

5) CIMB issue ZL-CE on 14/4/2014, asking for 15 sens at an exercise price of RM2.90 expiring at 30/4/2015. I interprete that CIMB don't think ZL will be > RM3.05 come 30/4/2015.

I smell no BARGAIN at current price at all.

Try me at RM2.10 (yield 5.7%) or a much improved next Q results.

My 2 sens worth on Zhulian