1) KLCI weak 2) dufu next YoY is extremely hard to beat 3) no moat, in fact, in hdd declining segment 4) ethical issue 5) collect if you r confident. If not, bye bye.
quite hard to meet the Q4 2016 result but chances is high that it will continue to register 3.8 to 4.5 EPS as Q4 is always the strongest season. So I believe 2017 normalize EPS will still be around 16 cents . The question is what PE will be applied. All tech stock enjoy double digit PE even small cap like MMSV. So if we apply PE 8 and with 19 cents cash per share, the fair price should be 1.47. The current sell down could be from those TA investor as the price is now below SMA 200. Will see if the EVLI fund buy again like what they did in April.
TA followers would cut as price fell below 200 day MA. Ask yourself should u sell????
DUFU for 9 mth YTD had already made EPS of 11.8 Sen and in Q3 its EPS was 3.8 Sen. On conservative let say Q4 EPS is 3 Sen. Thus the FY 17 estimated EPS is 14.8.
Due to the current poor market sentiment,I have used a conservative PE of 9 to 10 to value the Co to give a valuation range from 133 to 148.
At 115, it is trading at PE 7.77. The balance sheet is strong It has a net cash of RM30.7 mil cash or 20 Sen per shar.
Till todate, the Co had paid Div of 5.5 Sen
Your may be concern of the strengthening of Ringgit which could affect Dufu profit margin.
Most tech companies in manufacturing also have very high import cost components, so the forex issue is there, but should be manageable. Still, for tech companies, they had been doing very well the past several years not bcos of forex gains, but bcos of increased sales from global tech sector upcycle... and this up cycle is still strong.
So, for Dufu, Forex should still be manageable... If you recall in Q1 16, RM appreciate from 4.30 on 2 Jan 16 to 3.89 in mid April 16 and at 30 Sept RM was 4.125.
Dufu was profitable for the 9 mths YTD in 2016. If you take Q3 16, the RM to USD range from 4.00 to 4.125 and in Q3 16, and Dufu made a net profit of RM7.36 mil in the quarter. Hope this allay your concern
I cannot advice you to cut or not as we all have different risk appetite.
18. Prospects We expect sales to continue to remain favorable towards end of 2017 as our major product is driven by the growth in high-capacity nearline HDDs as well as stabilization of client storage demand. The long-term future of HDDs are likely rests with high capacity HDDs, particularly in data centers serving cloud storage applications. The demand for high capacity storage drives, enhanced performance, and lower storage cost is set to rise. Global internet penetration, the rise in e-commerce in emerging markets, and the current trend for high-resolution media standards are the likely drivers for the continuing rise in global data storage demand.
Nevertheless, the Group will continue to improve its operational efficiency and keep a tight rein on costs to ensure price competitiveness on its products. The Group is also working closely with existing and new customers in creating value to their supply chain, and will continue to seek opportunity to venture into new business segments that can synergizes with the Group’s current business model. With this in place and considering the continuing stable demand based on the current market trend and assuming that there is no volatility in the United States Dollar (“USD”) currency against Ringgit, the Group is optimistic about its earnings and growth in the coming quarters
Dufu and all other export oriented companies started to run after the Ringgit fell sharply in Aug 2015. Right now the ringgit is gaining sharply against all other currencies, can expect the bright forecasts to end soon. Still profitable for sure, but not so hot.
Big Operators just cuci all Dufu investors kaw kaw yesterday and those cannot tahan kena squeeze will surrender and loose out. Unfortunately the world is like that, the operators could just maniplate the market,
Dufu as it is trading at historical PE 7 and also forward PE 7. Why are all of you waiting???. Whern it is cheap pick it. Look at my above earlier comment on the prospects .
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Bkksnake
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Posted by Bkksnake > 2017-12-04 15:23 | Report Abuse
OH my god
跌到好似跳楼咁快