Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-11 12:08 | Report Abuse

a sukuk is basically a muslm version of a bond. Because they do not have riba or interest (due to jewish customs of screwing people over) sukuk is based on buying and sharing ownership of identifiable assets.

Posted by DickyMe > 2019-07-11 12:15 | Report Abuse

Islamic version of financial terms are actually not any different from traditional finance. It is just a change of name of terms to spread Islamic way of transacting globally. In terms of cost there is not much savings. Riba/interest is known as profit and it is taken beforehand. Not much rebate for early settlement.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-11 12:19 | Report Abuse

The reason for the first perpetual sukuk (bond) and why it should be treated as an equty and not debt: most bonds have a redemption coupon and a maturity period. In the case of armada, when the debt on bonds came due and the you have to pay the full maturity period + coupon, liquidity for armada became tight and the share priced crashed as the possibility of default became very high.

With regards to Yinson and why it is very VERY favourable, the perpetual sukuk simply means that there is no maturity period (on the 6.8% return yearly). Depending on how you look at it, as long as Yinson pays the 6.8% in perpetuity they don't need to worry about the debt of the bond. aka PERPETUAL. no maturity date, no call date, they can keep it going for a very long time without entering default. In fact, they can decide to pay of the debt 15 years from now when the long term charter contracts are done with.

In essence, treat it as if your father decided to borrow you money without any agreement, with the assumption that your new business will pay back your father 7.85% every year in bond repayments and he will not chase you for the full repayment of the principal amount + coupon. He is your father after all.

One day you will pay him back everything, but as long as you pay back that coupon rate every year, he will not complain to you mother.

>>>>>>>>

Yinson borrowing April 2019 as follows:
{In million Rm}
1. Perpetual Bond............1847.

Posted by Jason Gilbert Ho > 2019-07-11 12:42 | Report Abuse

Issuer Yinson TMC Sdn Bhd
Date Of Issuance 08 May 2018
Facility Perpetual Senior Sukuk Mudharabah and Subordinated Sukuk Mudharabah
Currency MYR
Issue Size (Million) 1,500.00
Tenure (Years) 999
Adviser AmInvestment Bank Berhad
Maybank Investment Bank Berhad

This is the best possible "debt" there is. I also agree with sifu philip, if a company is able to generate the reputation needed to raise 1.5 billion in perpetual bonds at 7.85% returns every year, it must be doing something right.

if you have to pay back the debt in 999 years, it is not a debt ( i do not agree with sifu stockraider assumption), it is an equity.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-11 12:54 | Report Abuse

the biggest difference between armada and yinson is the debt burden. Armada has a lot of contracts, but the burden of making profits enough to pay for the interest coverage and dividends to shareholders is already hard enough without the added burden of paying back the principal borrowings + coupon rate.
This is what is causing the increased chance of default for bumi armada.

For Yinson, no such problem exists.

as Jason said, for the next 999 years.

Posted by Abba84 > 2019-07-11 14:24 | Report Abuse

Any news frm AGM tday?

Posted by DickyMe > 2019-07-11 14:40 | Report Abuse

"...the perpetual sukuk simply means that there is no maturity period (on the 6.8% return yearly). Depending on how you look at it, as long as Yinson pays the 6.8% in perpetuity they don't need to worry about the debt of the bond. aka PERPETUAL. no maturity date, no call date, they can keep it going for a very long time without entering default. In fact, they can decide to pay of the debt 15 years from now when the long term charter contracts are done with. "

So basically it means "give me your money and I will give you installments of 6.8% or 7.85% of the capital, annually". It sounds like the company's business is operating in Disneyland and all players are saints. The best is one who "invests" in this have to wholly trust the company.

Assuming one invests 1 million, and assume the company keeps up with its word of delivering 6.8% percent annually and also ASSuming the business is making PROFIT yearly in a perfect business environment without much disruption of recession, competition, political chaos, natural disasters and etc, it would take minimum 15 years to regain your initial investment WITHOUT ANY GAIN. Sounds good investment when your capital is locked forever?

"In essence, treat it as if your father decided to borrow you money without any agreement, with the assumption that your new business will pay back your father 7.85% every year in bond repayments and he will not chase you for the full repayment of the principal amount + coupon. He is your father after all. "

In stock market, investors are not your father and the company is not son.


One day you will pay him back everything, but as long as you pay back that coupon rate every year, he will not complain to you mother. " <<<< Fairy land

One day when the son does not pay back due to failed business, the mother will be a punching bag for delivering a conman son. <<< Reality

Posted by thesteward > 2019-07-11 21:35 | Report Abuse

Tq 1.2 earn .
This is good ...don’t hv to worry to funds or expansion yipppee.
Brace for some more good news hopefully SOON.
Faith!

Posted by thesteward > 2019-07-11 22:01 | Report Abuse

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/552766

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-12 11:03 | Report Abuse

It is an analogy, not an exact explanation.

How else would you explain a bond with a 999 year tenure on maturity?

>>>>>>>


In stock market, investors are not your father and the company is not son.

Posted by DickyMe > 2019-07-12 11:22 | Report Abuse

A bond of 999 year tenure has all element of deceit, dissolving company's responsibility and integrity is at stake.

No one lives that long.
Future is unknown therefore, survival of the company is a big question mark not including the variables of disruption.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-12 11:25 | Report Abuse

That's why it is the best deal for YINSON.

In fact it is fully taken up, and even the latest usd200 million had been fully taken up.

I don't understand the point you are trying to make. This is good for YINSON, that is why it is treated as equity, not debt.

And for some people who want dividends, 7.85% forever is a good deal too.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-12 11:38 | Report Abuse

There are managing perpetual bonds around, this is not the first one. This is the first one for an oil & gas industry.

Although I don't term YINSON as an oil and gas company, more as a ferry charter company where instead of humans they transport oil barrels at a fixed rate.

Advanced investors buy perpetual bonds only in industries which are very stable and predictable.

What can be more predictable than a highway concession and a ferry charter?

Yinson brazil fpso contract will be 22 years with an option of extension at a day rate of 650k usd.

In addition the penalty for cancellation is exactly the amount raised for perpetual bond. So they will be able to pay the full bond maturity if needed.

What more can you wish for in terms of clarity?

At 6.8%, their interest coverage will be 105 million a year with no need to pay any original principal sum of 1.5 billion.

As long as you can calculate the profit margins every year from ship charter (o&m is a separate contract) and minus of the interest coverage used for ship conversion, that is a very clear line of profit for YINSON.

More importantly, in terms of inflation, 1.5 billion today and 15 years from now 1.5 billion will be worth far far less. Meaning the value of repayments will be worth much less by then.

Very few companies get access to cheap and efficient source of credit.

As long as yinson has access to the markets, I am sure they will be able to get many many more projects in the future.

Posted by DickyMe > 2019-07-12 11:52 | Report Abuse

"Advanced investors" is also known as gamblers justifying with assumed calculation and past performance. Past performance is not guaranteed to occur in future. Survival of Yinson for 999 years is a big doubt. The "advanced investor" only gets his initial investment in installments of 7.5 or 6.8 percentage of his own money. How sure Yinson can perform consistently, not 999 but even for 15 years. Blind faith dismissing challenges in business environment, global demand, technological change and relevance of it's service in future.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-12 11:57 | Report Abuse

DickyMe > Jul 12, 2019 11:52 AM | Report Abuse

"Advanced investors"
===========

Yinson US$ perpetual bonds at 7.5% are popular with international bond investors.............US government 30 yer bond yield is 1 % now.

Posted by DickyMe > 2019-07-12 12:10 | Report Abuse

The contention is not about the return but the tenure and negligence of constraints.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-12 12:30 | Report Abuse

Posted by DickyMe > Jul 12, 2019 12:10 PM | Report Abuse

The contention is not about the return but the tenure and negligence of constraints.
========

international bond investors also face the same contention.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-07-12 12:53 | Report Abuse

Hahajaha,
Qqq3 7.5% intetest is not a cheap way to raise fund. Need to learn from JAKS ALP how to raise cheap funds.

Posted by W205 > 2019-07-12 12:57 | Report Abuse

Philips, how do you view the Ezion acquisition? How does that fit with the business of Yinson? It seems the deal might not go through

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-12 13:07 | Report Abuse

I don't know how many companies in Bursa can raise funds via bonds with payback maturity period of 999 years in the principal capital.

I noticed this in 2015 when cimb helped raised perpetual bonds for YINSON at 120 million usd. In my kind, at 7.85% rates they can just pay off the interest payments until one day when the Malaysian ringgit recovers up to 3 or 3.2, and the use dollar shrinks again, and clear it up the maturity.

This may come in 10 years, 20 years or 30 years.

They may even renegotiate new facility at better rates and reset the whole thing at their leisure.

I realized then that yinson will not have liquidity problems for a very very long time, if ever.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jul 12, 2019 12:53 PM | Report Abuse

Hahajaha,
Qqq3 7.5% intetest is not a cheap way to raise fund. Need to learn from JAKS ALP how to raise cheap funds.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-12 13:12 | Report Abuse

To be honest, I hope it doesn't go through. The assets and synergy is definitely undervalued and is a perfect target for takeover due to evious ezion economic problems.

But those same economic problems will also cause YINSON to be overstretched and headaches in the future.

In the wake of these long term contracts with Brazil and Ghana high possibilities, I believe YINSON will do the right thing and not stretch their resources and just do the simpler things and get the orders and expedite ship conversion and profit raising.

I have a clear view of where YINSON cash flow and earnings growth will come from 10 years from now. Ezion gives me a big headache.


>>>>>>

Posted by W205 > Jul 12, 2019 12:57 PM | Report Abuse

Philips, how do you view the Ezion acquisition? How does that fit with the business of Yinson? It seems the deal might not go through

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-12 13:33 | Report Abuse

Can you name any negligence on yinson part in interest repayments? On return hand, each contract they sign comes with a clause where the chartering party has to pay a penalty for any contract cancellation ( which turns out to be the cost of ship conversion). This pays for all the returns of the bond if needed to close.

There is nothing to contend if YINSON does not have any bad debt history and an exemplary history of producing ahead of schedule, good track record of results and a wonderful paymaster.

I have owned YINSON since 2012 and I have yet to find any fault in their business practise.

In any case the bonds are not available for retail investors like you. Minimum outlay is 1m usd for the bond takeup.

Major institutions have greedily picked up as the repayments are clockwork and the business contracts solid.

Imagine a bank taking your fixed deposit and epf submissions and paying you 4% or 6.3% per annum. Where would they go to get the returns? Buy stocks in sapura? Sumatec? Insas? Those are totally risky investments. Instead they buy the issued bonds from YINSON which pays 6.8% and 7.85% which is very stable and profitable. Most of all those bonds are backed by assets in use and on site, drawing cash flow.

It is a positive cycle, the better the contracts they more profit they have. The better the profit the more institutions want to lend to them.

The only problem you need to look at now is their ability to perform, how will they will do in their first project in Brazil waters.

The payments are very clear cut and consistent ( you stop paying, I stop delivering oil barrels). The debt is also very clear cut ( no maturity on bonds, only interest payments to worry about). The biggest risk is execution.

But YINSON has shown their ability to execute, with Japan institutions rushing to buy a piece of their action.

I feel confident as a shareholder.

>>>>>>>>>>>

DickyMe The contention is not about the return but the tenure and negligence of constraints.
12/07/2019 12:10 PM

Posted by Sslee > 2019-07-12 14:20 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Mean no offend, my HSBC account manager do recommend me to buy USD bond with bond yield rate 2% - 4% depend on Bond issuer hence 7.5% sound a lot. Will it be cheaper to borrow long term loan and then keep refinance with new loan when the old loan is due to expire?
Thank you

Posted by Rwkl > 2019-07-12 15:34 | Report Abuse

The seems keen to get a slice of Ezion and are going thru due diligience.
If all goes well a EGM will be called.
There are only 3 FPSO players now and the other 2 have their hands full..
So Yinson is the only 1 left and they too have their resources streched

Posted by Rwkl > 2019-07-12 15:35 | Report Abuse

The board

Posted by Sslee > 2019-07-12 17:46 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Some of the USD Bonds quote by HSBC Indo account Manager:
Indo Gov Bond: INDON49
Coupon: 5.35%
Maturity: 11-Feb -2049
Bid: 119.00 Ask: 122.00
Ask Yield to Maturity: 4.06%. Acc interest days: 216

CORP Bond: IDASAL 28
Coupon: 6.53%
Maturity: 15-Nov -2028
Bid: 117.80 Ask: 121.15
Ask Yield to Maturity: 3.82%. Acc interest days: 62
Minimum Investment USD 50,000

So is YINSON Bond placed out by the CIMB for investors to buy/bid and sell/ask?

Thank you

Posted by haihai > 2019-07-13 06:17 | Report Abuse

Somehow this counter is trusted by the Sharks for the past 3 days..
No harm to follow the queue while it is still affordable..

Friday, 12 Jul 2019
5:15PM YINSON KUMPULAN WANG PERSARAAN (DIPERBADANKAN) (1,011,200 units Transacted)
5:15PM YINSON EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (3,634,800 units Transacted)


Thursday, 11 Jul 2019
5:39PM YINSON EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (2,873,500 units Transacted)
5:39PM YINSON KUMPULAN WANG PERSARAAN (DIPERBADANKAN) (920,500 units Transacted)
5:01PM YINSON General Meetings: Outcome of Meeting


Wednesday, 10 Jul 2019
5:20PM YINSON EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (1,175,300 units Transacted)
5:20PM YINSON KUMPULAN WANG PERSARAAN (DIPERBADANKAN) (986,600 units Transacted)
13/07/2019 6:13 AM

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-07-13 07:26 | Report Abuse

Hi sslee. No offense reserved.

It is definitely cheaper to do so, but you need to know the full structure of the bond. My recommendation is to understand the underlying security of the bond structure.
2-4% sounds like a treasury bond, which is guaranteed and covered by government.

There main issue is still maturity period and coupon rate ( the bond value at buyback also makes sense).

Another example is topglove bonds recently. The bond rates are very low, 200 million usd@ 2% per annum 5 year period, which is used to pare down their existing loans which is paid at 4% per year. This sounds very good. However they have to give up a few things namely introducing a convertible bond ( they can convert the 200 million usd into 131 million shares@conversion price of rm6.2), and also allow bondholders to borrow 2.1% of owners shareholdings or 5.1 million shares to be used for short selling. This sweetens the deal enough ( and protects bondholders in case the stock price tanks), that the bonds were snapped up immediately on the SGX and BURSA markets.

So in other words, nothing is got free. There is a cost to everything.

For YINSON case, 7.5% with no maturity period ( estimate 14 years to break get back your principal amount, balance perpetual). Ship charter risk if client non-payment ( penalty clause, low risk, i think rated bba+).

Or indo government bonds
Indo Gov Bond: INDON49
Coupon: 5.35%
Maturity: 11-Feb -2049

It all falls to your estimate of trust for the company (or government) ability to pay.

Thank you

Sapura and Armada share price crash is because debt generation and interest repayments has increased, while their profit margins and revenues has be dropped tremendously. With looming maturity of borrowings to be repaid in the very near future, and no one willing to buy their bonds, it extend loans, their only option is to do rights issue, warrant or cash call.

Yinson borrowings had no maturity period, thus classified as equity. Very very good arrangement for strong growing companies.

>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jul 12, 2019 2:20 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Mean no offend, my HSBC account manager do recommend me to buy USD bond with bond yield rate 2% - 4% depend on Bond issuer hence 7.5% sound a lot. Will it be cheaper to borrow long term loan and then keep refinance with new loan when the old loan is due to expire?
Thank you

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-07-13 08:09 | Report Abuse

I believe when the opportunity and cash presents itself ( when future value of 1.5 billion is worth 1.2 billion in tomorrow's inflated money), yinson can easily retire debt at far lower interest rates 2% over 5 years.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/07/04/cgs-cimb-research-upgrades-yinson-back-to-add-from-hold/

In the meanwhile, yinson needs cash to win projects and grow their business. With 3 FPSO technically won worth 709k usd day rate for a charter of 25 years for marlim 1, 650k usd day rate for whale park 22 years and Ghana 15 years, the projections are very easy to calculate and firm contracts with penalties on both side for noon conformance.

Repayment is definitely not an issue.

Technical performance of their international Norway team is also very good.

I can pretty much guarantee a good economic future for YINSON as all these deals are done when the pool prices are low. When o& g industry recovers, and the pe multiples return to mean, YINSON will definitely be rerated on good fundamentals.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-13 12:30 | Report Abuse

The new FPSO will result in YINSON borrowing even exceeding Armada on an absolute basis, that means Yinson gearing will be very high loh...!!

That confirm armada mkt cap Rm 1.4b order books Rm 21b a better investment compare with Yinson mkt Cap Rm 7.2b order books Rm 4b loh.......!!

Rightfully armada should be value much higher than Yinson loh...!!

The good news for goreng Yinson will definitely raised & confirmed armada investment profile as a strong margin of safety & turnaround stock loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-13 13:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-13 13:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by thesteward > 2019-07-13 13:21 | Report Abuse

Gosh what kind of statement is that .
I hv some armada at .18 n will continue to hold I believe will go up too as the worst is over IF they really get their act right
BUT why are are you comparing Armada tw Yinson ???
Yinson is a gem. Splendid management n track record .So what if they go huge t borrowing because their contract big ? The business is expanding at this phase n making good profit ...why not ?
Some companies hv lesser borrowing but has been eroding shareholders value for years that is worse.
Yinson at least make Msia proud .
Not like certain companies from v high price 10 years ago now became penny .
The management are v committed decent businessmen just like QL Respurces , Vitriox, Penta .
The heart of any compmajy is the management team. If you hv ineffective management well one day we can potentially see pn17.
I notice some similarity between good companies ...usually the founders are the one running the show they public list NOT to exit or cash out BUT to expand . They are also major shareholders still.
Ithey regard they co as their baby n would not be jeopardizing their company for some short term gain esp if their next generation is taking on the leadership . But of course there are exceptions . End of the day to succeed ...you need both opportunity , hard work , commitment integrity and most of all grace or ‘luck’.
So far Yinson has proven itself n let’s hope it will be for many years to come .
Faith ...!
Most importantly this counter is not a goreng counter but a fund counter. Shark how to goreng ...wanna goreng also Won’t be looking for counters above rm5 to goreng ma ....they also smart ma .

Posted by thesteward > 2019-07-13 13:21 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/07/13/yinson-continues-to-draw-interest/

Posted by thesteward > 2019-07-13 13:29 | Report Abuse

Yinson has not failed in delivery of any projects . Can’t say the same for its other peers unfortunately .

Posted by thesteward > 2019-07-13 13:36 | Report Abuse

When it comes to FPSO counters I more trust MIB targets . Or CS.
CIMB a high target for Armada before the price dropped to a v sad state. Having said that I too believe at current price Armada is pretty low n if they really get their act right I m hoping it could at least go back to .70 .

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-13 13:38 | Report Abuse

If u hold armada 5 yrs ago u will also tell people it is a Gem mah..!

Posted by thesteward > Jul 13, 2019 1:21 PM | Report Abuse

Gosh what kind of statement is that .
I hv some armada at .18 n will continue to hold I believe will go up too as the worst is over IF they really get their act right
BUT why are are you comparing Armada tw Yinson ???
Yinson is a gem. Splendid management n track record .So what if they go huge t borrowing because their contract big ? The business is expanding at this phase n making good profit ...why not ?
Some companies hv lesser borrowing but has been eroding shareholders value for years that is worse.
Yinson at least make Msia proud .
Not like certain companies from v high price 10 years ago now became penny .
The management are v committed decent businessmen just like QL Respurces , Vitriox, Penta .
The heart of any compmajy is the management team. If you hv ineffective management well one day we can potentially see pn17.
I notice some similarity between good companies ...usually the founders are the one running the show they public list NOT to exit or cash out BUT to expand . They are also major shareholders still.
Ithey regard they co as their baby n would not be jeopardizing their company for some short term gain esp if their next generation is taking on the leadership . But of course there are exceptions . End of the day to succeed ...you need both opportunity , hard work , commitment integrity and most of all grace or ‘luck’.
So far Yinson has proven itself n let’s hope it will be for many years to come .
Faith ...!
Most importantly this counter is not a goreng counter but a fund counter. Shark how to goreng ...wanna goreng also Won’t be looking for counters above rm5 to goreng ma ....they also smart ma .

Posted by Mr Jho Heavenly Pakatan U-Turn > 2019-07-13 13:39 | Report Abuse

raider you are like comparing proton with BMW now. I think you should know which is which

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-13 13:41 | Report Abuse

This totally not true loh....!!

We are comparing benz with bmw mah...!!

Posted by Mr Jho Heavenly Pakatan U-Turn > Jul 13, 2019 1:39 PM | Report Abuse

raider you are like comparing proton with BMW now. I think you should know which is which

Posted by thesteward > 2019-07-13 14:09 | Report Abuse

No need argue la. Hope both will up la.
So far rm4.20 3/4 months ago now 7.18 is 70pct .
18 vs 23 is 28pcr
Let’s hope armada will go up lo . Faster catch up la

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-07-13 17:31 | Report Abuse

It's ok. Let stockraider compare, he seems to think that he can influence institutions and large investors with his thinking. To bad I'm still holding and will not touch a single share of armada.

Posted by Outliar > 2019-07-13 17:33 | Report Abuse

Philip, when are you posting your Bikers Gang part 2, been waiting for it for a while now would like to hear your thoughts about PCHEM

Posted by Qiinvestor > 2019-07-13 18:15 | Report Abuse

Yes, I'm looking forward to it too.

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-07-13 18:57 | Report Abuse

Already written, haven't published. Will do it this week

Posted by Abba84 > 2019-07-13 19:17 | Report Abuse

Stockrader..being too academic i say.
In reality..mny professionl anylsts do not put foot wrong..as they alwys hve strong confdenc n growth yers to come.
They like what they see. n jus buy n drive.

Posted by ruby20 > 2019-07-13 20:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ruby20 > 2019-07-13 20:29 | Report Abuse

"Yinson business is really in sweet spot. Their growth also can be exponential as they will keep growing if they keep winning contracts, and they will keep winning contracts if they can keep delivering good track records."

Good coverage on Yinson from its latest developments, to FPSO industry overview to its 2020 outlook.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-14 00:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-14 10:49 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by The One and Only Heavenly Punter > 2019-07-15 07:30 | Report Abuse

It's okay lah raider, I used to think a heavily leveraged company is a bad company but a capable management which have the ability to utilize debt in a good way is a company worth investing. I bought in at 6.20 I think now is not too late for you to jump onboard this FPSO