Posted by tjhldg > 2014-03-14 02:05 | Report Abuse

y ? your kaki lima fortune teller told u ?

Posted by Melaos > 2014-03-14 08:41 | Report Abuse

Where the kaki Lima? I also want to go

Posted by thesteward > 2014-03-14 08:50 | Report Abuse

I doubt it will drop today, Read article in Nanyang. If drop good, I buy some more increase this stock weightage to 50pct of my portfolio. Read nanyang papers today.

Posted by ckl4717 > 2014-03-14 12:27 | Report Abuse

Company ask money also need to see ask for what purposes; if ask for expand business then is ok, coz borrow from bank need to pay interest. If company losing money then ask money from u it's a diff story altogether.

Posted by 2767max > 2014-03-14 12:28 | Report Abuse

asking more money from right issue if compare with last right issue announcement,this is good to the company cuz can reduce more debt n loan interest ,shorterm no good to small investors cuz need to come out more money,but long term is good,company financial more healthy.

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-14 12:34 | Report Abuse

can yinson earnings support that kind of debt? what sort of growth yinson have in this year? are these prospect firm/sustain? lastly, what is the right priced? that's the sort of questions to justify the right issue.

far as it goes now, the offer is deem attractive. let's c how the market react to it.

Posted by Melaos > 2014-03-14 12:42 | Report Abuse

So I guess today is market reaction to the new debt?
I'm also wondering why more and more debt needs to be issued..

Posted by ckl4717 > 2014-03-14 14:56 | Report Abuse

i notice alot O&G shares drop today, i enter Yinson below rm8, no worry from me, also save extra cash to subscribe for the rights d, my friend that worry this worry that definitely miss the boat. he kena trap in other counters also...

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-14 17:01 | Report Abuse

Average earnings (past 5 years) EPS = RM0.22, Using Benjamin Graham Intrinsic Value calculation (not adjusted for interest), the stock can only be RM10.70 if it can have a compounding growth rate of about 20% p.a. over the next 5 to 10 years. So the question is, can Yinson sustain such growth. If it can, then it should worth around RM10.70.

Posted by wei_meng81 > 2014-03-14 17:02 | Report Abuse

Almost all O&G shares drop today, don't know what is happening outside.

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-14 17:29 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/280369-iea-raises-2014-oil-demand-estimate-as-world-economy-recovers.html

yinson is world #6 now and still in growing mode (note portion of the right is to scale up Vietnam biz). the right could be priced at a very attractive level, wait n c.

btw, strong petroleum demand is also good for biofuel.

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-14 20:21 | Report Abuse

Reminded me of KNM. If the maths make sense, go for it. For those who realised their profits, congrats. Anyone has calculated its Intrinsic Value? The project already secured at the attractive price? Can the customers default (like dry bulks, even good customers defaulted)? It is a bit risky just to assumed they are world number six. Global Carriers was once upon a time move from RM2 then to RM20 and now is RM0.05 per share. Please, do the maths. So far, I don't see many actually calculate its intrinsic value or at least a ballpark.

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-15 03:01 | Report Abuse

new to yinson? http://www.yinson.com.my/assets/analysts_reports/26%20February%202014%20RHB.pdf

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-15 08:45 | Report Abuse

Thanks lafx for the report. I am totally new in FPSO. Great report. Only a few concerns. The 49% of the ownership (do not enjoy the cash flow). The implied PE of 23X for FY2015 (although it is benchmark against peers), question is can it sustain for long term. The method of valuation is using SOP (a bit arbitrary)

AND risk mentioned by RHB, fluctuation of crude oil prices (who can be sure crude oil will not go down to USD70/tonne in next 3-5 years), cost overrun and reliance on other specialists that is outsourced.

Just a word of caution, the entire world was positive about KNM during one time until it is proven otherwise. Hope that Yinson has sufficient contingency. Best of luck to those who is the owner of Yinson.

Posted by optimus5 > 2014-03-15 09:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-15 11:22 | Report Abuse

Don't run. Benchmark with established players. Look at long term fluctuations (5-10yrs) of the past (if it is any help). Identify what are the key factors in this industries (is expertise critical, and does the management has adequate experience). After establishing the past, and do a simulation on the major factors (worst case) and long term prospects (after considering risk), if it is still highly undervalued (subjective), then invest. If upside is limited and downside is high, then reconsider. Assumed this is the last dollar inheritance you have before you invest. Investment is part science part art, part 'sentiment' and part 'luck', so, do your homework that is within your control, the one not within your control, use your experience and judgement to guide you. During good time, all prices goes beyond the TP, during downtime, all cannot reach their TP. What I am saying, think like a businessman (look for long term). What is the industry effected say 15% (like what petronas mentioned lately on AHT). Btw, our Bursa market cap is RM1.7trillion and our GDP (2013) is RM980 billion, or 1.73 times. What is the mean? Is this consider high? What is the last 10 years ratio?

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-15 11:37 | Report Abuse

This ratio may used as reference: Market Cap/GDP of 2009-2013, 1.26, 1.65, 1.37, 1.56, 1.73 Looks like 2013 is on the high side.

Posted by alphajack > 2014-03-16 00:16 | Report Abuse

Market sentiment of pikers is temporarily driving the price down when the rights issue s an extremely positive sign. Comes to show you how gullible and dumb most of the 'day traders' and pikers in Malaysia are

Posted by Kukuman > 2014-03-16 10:11 | Report Abuse

It is so stupid for the company to revise the fund raising exercise when it is already half way through now. The drop in share price yesterday indicated that the market is not happy with what the company is trying to do now. plain stupid management action.

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-16 12:54 | Report Abuse

the additional fund raised the company's reserve, bulk of it set for working capital. looks like overall is to further control the debt level. after this exercise yinson still "slimmer" than armada, ability to pay div to increase. current proposal inline with latest acquisition made and new biz in Vietnam; it's in aggressive expansion mode set to be on par with it's competitor (e.g. armada).

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1566145

Posted by Kukuman > 2014-03-16 13:54 | Report Abuse

why dont they do it right from the start of the fund raising exercise? they suddenly wake up and realised they need more fund??

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-16 14:15 | Report Abuse

c the trend after first announced of right, yinson share is in demand.

Posted by buffet88 > 2014-03-16 20:42 | Report Abuse

bad fund raising exercise .... getting the money from the public to pay off director's advances

Posted by buffet88 > 2014-03-16 20:43 | Report Abuse

no wonder the share price drop ..... shareholders are unhappy

Posted by almufathal > 2014-03-16 20:44 | Report Abuse

dividend also like so ciput

Posted by tjhldg > 2014-03-17 01:43 | Report Abuse

kikikii ... esok tambah lagi 2 biji ... gam gam satu lorry

Posted by beverley96 > 2014-03-17 09:44 | Report Abuse

still can keep ?

Posted by tjhldg > 2014-03-17 10:54 | Report Abuse

for me will wait till ex .....my gigi besar liau

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-17 11:02 | Report Abuse

the right is expected to be priced at a very attractive price b4 split, let's c!

Posted by tonylim > 2014-03-17 13:02 | Report Abuse

Iafx.. yes. I heard this morning.
2.00?

Posted by ckl4717 > 2014-03-17 19:30 | Report Abuse

1 right share for 1 existing share to raise rm600 millions, 600M / total company share 258,175,751 = rm2.33/right share?! take current price 8.99+2.33=11.32 (1 existing + 1 rights), then share split, rm11.32/4 = rm2.83/share after all the exercise completed???

Posted by ckl4717 > 2014-03-17 19:32 | Report Abuse

if they want to make the share more attractive, just pump up the share to around rm9.70/share, rm9.70+2.30/4 = rm3/share post-ex. which i think very high possibility to happen before ex date!

Posted by tonylim > 2014-03-17 19:55 | Report Abuse

ckl I heard this morning also... ex all might go back to 5.00.
is it far fetched?

Posted by ckl4717 > 2014-03-17 20:17 | Report Abuse

I notice Yinson when i read online news about Mokhzani and Kencana Capital inside dealing with this company, earning them fast and easy money within few days. so much so i hate our country corruption and inside dealing, we cannot denied company linked to Mahathir family all had go on to perform very well.

Posted by ckl4717 > 2014-03-17 20:24 | Report Abuse

http://www.kinibiz.com/story/tigertalk/27933/what%E2%80%99s-mokhzani-up-to-at-yinson.html

from the link, u can read that Mokhzani private placement 37.8M shares @rm2.82/shares, plus 10M shares he bot earlier without price indication, if u assume all his 47.8M shares bot @2.82 and sell now for 8.99, how much profit he can get? around rm295 millions, do u think Mokhzani come here for rm295 millions? that amount for him is like rm295 for us only, not much! and his total cost after rights is rm2.82 + 2.30 (wild guess) = rm5.12, sure the price wont drop until rm5.

Posted by ckl4717 > 2014-03-17 20:31 | Report Abuse

tonylim so what u think? im looking at Coastal contracts too but more than 50% fund place on O&G shares ad, can't throw all the eggs into 1 basket...

Posted by tonylim > 2014-03-17 23:10 | Report Abuse

Ckl You seems to contradict yourself about corruption whilst you are holding yinson. I don't know which age group you are in. In the 80s Daim made close to six to eight hundred million by holding one bank each for hardly 3 years. Bank De Paris become Malaysia French bank sold the multi purpose mca and umbc later sold to Pernas. Same M.O. here. Mokhzani entered corporate world thru tongkah .. Pantai.. Trace it your self.

Daim and Apanama then created the 93 bull run with darling stocks like renong n mrcb which shares price rose fr pennies to many ringgit shares.

Coming to yinson how high it Can go is Anybody guess looking at the present longest bull now. Ride on, mate

Posted by ShortSell007 > 2014-03-18 00:34 | Report Abuse

I heard more o&g projects coming in to yinson..its a wise move to split the share and then push it up again

Posted by tjhldg > 2014-03-18 00:48 | Report Abuse

: )

Posted by ckl4717 > 2014-03-18 09:35 | Report Abuse

tony, i'm 25, 2 years into investment only, i stil hate corruption but is there any profitable business that UMNO havent get a hand in it? actually quite regret last year May didnt enter under rm4/share, busy following Pakatan demonstration rally in Penang! haha

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-18 21:17 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1569121

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-18 21:38 | Report Abuse

Lately a lot of small and mid size companies were played up due to rights issue, bonus issue and share split. As far as bonus and share split, it doesn't add economic value to the company (other than lower its share price to attract retail investors). As for rights issue, it is just a fund raising exercise, the critical part is to how the utilisation is used (and at what PE is it issue).

It is like, buy one get one free. But in actuality there is no change in economic value of the companies. In fact, it is waste of resources. If it does add value, every businessman in town will do it.

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-18 21:46 | Report Abuse

not quite, as biz grow, share base increased along the working capital. yinson is now runs global biz, no longer a kampung king. yr thought probably suit dsonic better, but then, dsonic flies multiple folds.

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-18 21:57 | Report Abuse

with the acquisition completed, the earnings will increase significantly, pe will change. even after this exercise, yinson share base still slimmer than armada. if the right is less than 3, it'sa reward to shareholder to continue take part in the growing biz.

Posted by tonylim > 2014-03-19 10:52 | Report Abuse

.

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-19 19:10 | Report Abuse

I was referring to bonus and split (no additional in economic value)

However, rights issue and private placement, will provide additional economic value if the returns from the funding exceed the dilution of the shares.

Yes, when business expands, it needs more money from rights issue and private placements, but if the business does not bring in additional earnings as expected, then, it may have a negative effect (just like raising money say, to go into exploration, and the exploration failed, money then wasted).

The questions should be, is there a lot of upside for Yinson, if there are a lot, then by all means, accumulate. If it close to the fair value of the company, then don't accumulate. What PE is Yinso doing now at RM9.00. Just rough calculation, let say its profit tripled from 17 sen to 51 sen, it is doing at PE of 17x. Is this consider high? Well, depends which side are you on.

Posted by tonylim > 2014-03-19 19:16 | Report Abuse

sos thks. for the sake of argument another o n g counter UZma announced a RI of 75c when the share price is 6 plus. for first time I see such a big gap

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-19 21:59 | Report Abuse

UZma is diluting its share base, asking only 75c, there is absolutely no need to do 1:1 at all. best of all, a bulk of it goes to office renovation.

if vs yinson's offer, clearly v see which 1 will bring more biz value. in this industry, pe over 20 is normal. c closest peer armda and other ong counters, typical for heavy capex biz, nothing to shout about.

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-19 23:44 | Report Abuse

Issue at low price is good for the taker of the RI but not for the company. So, the share price will drop.


issue at the high price is good for the Company and expensive for the taker. So the share price will goes up.

In theory. In real life, nobody can tell.

Posted by tjhldg > 2014-03-21 01:23 | Report Abuse

: )