Posted by OTB > 2024-05-08 09:44 | Report Abuse

1.) FPSO Maria Quitéria. Brazil. 100% stake.
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/yinson-lands-fpso-contracts-worth-us52-billion-brazil
Contract value = USD 5.2 billion. 22.5 years firm.
Start operation in mid-2024.
Annual (charter rate) revenue = USD 5200 million/22.5 = USD 231.11 million = RM 1.086 billion (1 USD = RM 4.70)
PBT (40% of revenue) = 434.40 million
PAT (37% tax) = 273.67 million

2.) FPSO Atlanta. Brazil. 100% stake.
https://www.oedigital.com/news/494478-malaysia-s-yinson-brazil-s-enauta-pen-firm-contracts-for-atlanta-field-fpso
Contract value = USD 1.9 billion. 15 years firm and with option to extend 5 years.
Start operation in mid-2024.
Annual (charter rate) revenue = USD 1900 million/15 = USD 126.67 million = RM 595.35 million (1 USD = RM 4.70)
PBT (40% of revenue) = 238.14 million
PAT (37% tax) = 150.03 million

I believe 50% of PAT (212 million) will be included in FY 2025 income statement.
Thank you.

Posted by kl_guy > 2024-05-09 08:19 | Report Abuse

https://www.facebook.com/100000728949681/posts/pfbid0TPpm1qSv74yZDmt2fzG7vmv1Uhtdq76v4ni4AiC7TXyvpndMxr6CGErFsoccHjfKl/?mibextid=Nif5oz

who got contact with yinson ceo . pls update him that ev charge are not working. is all over the fb .

Posted by Vdhawan > 2024-05-09 19:39 | Report Abuse

Yinson has good debts, obviously, Jeffrey

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-09 22:22 | Report Abuse

On 19th April Yinson just signed US$500 million from five-year senior secured bonds that carry a fixed coupon of whopping 9.625%.

Anyone knows the recent US 1.2 billion loan`s coupon rate?

FPSO business is very high risk business, if any new FPSO couldn't get the final acceptance approval from the charter client. Jialat already.

Look at Bumi Armada`s Kraken FPSO saga with Enquest from 2017 to 2018.

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-09 22:24 | Report Abuse

The Kraken final acceptance issue almost sent Bumi Armada into PN17. Luckily AK saved Bumi Armada with his own pocket cash.

Posted by Mabel > 2024-05-09 22:27 | Report Abuse

Jeffey,

Indicative Profit Rate: 7.50% area
Indicative Price: 102.00
Yield to Call: 7.02% p.a.

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-09 22:39 | Report Abuse

Thanks Mabel!

7.5% still at the high end.
This US 1.2b loan alone coupon payment almost USD 90 million or MYR 423 million a year.

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-09 22:55 | Report Abuse

If the probability of one FPSO failing to obtain final acceptance is 25%.
Probability of exactly one FPSO failed to obtain final acceptance out of Yinson`s total 4 new FPSOs using the binomial probability formula is about 42%.

In summary Yinson is taking a very high risk on over expansion.

Posted by Sslee > 2024-05-10 12:49 | Report Abuse

Random probability of tossing a coin 4 times and getting all head is 1 in 2x2x2x2.

Is that how you use to evaluate successful rate of executing multi billion FPSO projects?

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-10 14:30 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh Mr. Lee you calculate probability of all 4 new FPSOs fail to get final acceptance. If all 4 failed Yinson confirm bankrupt already.

I calculate at least one failure out of 4 new FPSO ma.

P(X=1)=(1,4 ) [ (25%) + (75%)^3]

​

Posted by Sslee > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Random probability of tossing a coin 4 times and getting all head is 1 in 2x2x2x2.

Is that how you use to evaluate successful rate of executing multi billion FPSO projects?

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-10 19:23 | Report Abuse

The FPSO operators should think out of the box. The current build and lease business model is extremely high risk and requires huge capital commitment.

large upfront capital costs, long project timelines, complex engineering, and potential for operational challenges in remote and harsh environments. After the project completed then wait for the mercy of FPSO charter to sign the final acceptance. At the mercy of FPSO charter to give charter rate based high KPI. At the mercy of FPSO charter to give contract extension or terminate the contract during low oil price crash period.

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-10 19:28 | Report Abuse

Armada sterling V waited few months still no news of final acceptance. The delay actually caused by field owner or oil field geography challenges. FPSO operator just have to accept all these unforseen challenges.

Posted by BursaVulture > 2024-05-10 20:49 | Report Abuse

@Jeffrey

You should read Oakland Path's report and some other IB's report. Ignore IB target price, read the content. Quoted from Oakland Path report:

The company has experienced several contract terminations in the past decade, and it has received termination fees in each case. Here is a summary of the terminated contracts:

- FPSO Lam Son - The FPSO was originally supposed to be leased until June 2021, but the lease was terminated early in April 2017 due to lower production levels than expected. Yinson was paid termination fees. The client continued to charter the FPSO to work at the same field at a lower day rate. The FPSO has recently been extended until June 2024, with an automatic 6-month extension until December 2024.
- FPSO Knock Allan – The FPSO was originally supposed to be leased until April 2019, but the lease was terminated in late 2018. It had previously operated for nearly 10 years in the Olowi Field in Gabon for Canadian Natural Resources before the field ran dry. Yinson was paid the termination fees. The FPSO was upgraded and redeployed as FPSO Abigail-Joseph to Nigeria under First E&P in 2020 on a firm seven-year contract.
- Repsol’s Ca Rong Do – In 1Q18, Yinson’s JV PTSC Ca Rong Do was notified by Repsol of a force majeure event (Vietnam’s territorial dispute with China). The upgrading contract for the vessel has yet to be awarded at that time. Yinson's JV has finalized a full compensation deal for the contract termination in 2020.
- FPSO Pecan Letter of Intent (LOI) – Aker Energy and Yinson entered a letter of intent (LOI) for the provision of an FPSO vessel for the Pecan field. However, the LOI was terminated in early 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and low oil prices. Yinson has been compensated for the work that was already completed.

In two of the four cases, Yinson was compensated for the termination of existing leases, and in the other two cases, it was compensated for the termination of contracts for vessels under construction. This shows that Yinson has chosen its counterparties carefully and that its contracts are well-written, with strong provisions for termination.

Posted by BursaVulture > 2024-05-10 20:50 | Report Abuse

https://www.oaklandspath.com/the-fpso-industry-and-top-tier-lessor-and-operator-yinson

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-10 20:56 | Report Abuse

Yinson must be very lucky got the termination compensation and able to redeployed the same FPSO in other field.

Not all clients so nice in this world. Some just terminate the contract and see you in the Court which protecting own local Businesses.

Posted by BursaVulture > 2024-05-10 20:57 | Report Abuse

As per the Oakland Path report, there are less and less FPSO operators, this means less bidder for a project. Thus Yinson can negotiate better terms.

Not that things won't go wrong. Murphy's law. Just hope everything will be ok. I wait until my hair becomes white liao.

Posted by Permutation > 2024-05-10 23:24 | Report Abuse

When most of the counters in Bursa are bullish now, you have the funny feeling that Yinson is going to be listless for the rest of the year. The chart has been shitty for a long time. Wait and wait and wait. Perhaps a few more qtrs of good result might change people's perception.

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2024-05-10 23:51 | Report Abuse

yinson is one of the companies that seems happy running its business with not a worry on its share price..... recently issued a very very expensive sukuk at 7.5% coupon.... while everyone nows in a year of less Feds will reduce the rates and we will be at the usual 3.5% ish rates, this like while running normal business instead of going to SMI loans ..... one opts for ah long.... same money yes.... but one charges high borrowing cost; but like said touch wood.... all yinson contract shoftfalls have been compensated for....BTW ang moh runs the core business at yinson.... just like at bumi armada

Posted by BursaVulture > 2024-05-11 02:39 | Report Abuse

How sure are you the fed will lower the rates? If they lower now before inflation subsides, they risk causing another spike in inflation. If anyone can successfully predicts fed movement, he will be the richest man on earth.

Posted by BursaVulture > 2024-05-11 02:43 | Report Abuse

@Permutation

Yes, yinson stock price like dead.... sien.

Anyway, FPSO Atlanta will probably reach the Atlanta field in the coming days. Maybe first oil in 1 or 2 months? FPSO Maria will reach the oil field in 1 or 2 months time. So, the be end of this year, only left FPSO Agogo under construction.

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2024-05-11 03:52 | Report Abuse

@BursaVulture .... of course the Feds will lower the rates, only question of when, as otherwise US and most economies will go into a recession, which is what UK is on the brink off and thats why UK and EU will probably drop first.... we are looking at least 25 basis points reduction by this year end, followed by 100 basis points or so in 2025.... educated guesstimate... for yinson's sake the Brent better wake up from its 80 slumber and move towards 90 .... at 80 there is little incentive for FPSO owners

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-11 06:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2024-05-11 08:52 | Report Abuse

Some see the glass as half empty other half full. So do you see opportunity in Yinson since its share price not yet moving but with two addition FSPO in operation in 2025 and one addition FSPO in operation come year 2026.

Posted by Bullrun18 > 2024-05-11 09:49 | Report Abuse

既然你说那几隻那么的好 ! 你就去下注那几匹很会跑的吧 ! 干吗你扁扁要来看這匹老马呢 ！

Posted by Bullrun18 > 2024-05-11 09:53 | Report Abuse

不用比较就你那水平该干嘛干嘛去吧。

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-11 09:56 | Report Abuse

等到油价崩盘，轻舟已过万重山。四架新的船要等下一波油价爆涨了。

Posted by Bullrun18 > 2024-05-11 10:45 | Report Abuse

大多数的分析都认为这几年的油价会上涨 ！ 那里走来个傻子告诉大家油价崩盘 ！

Posted by Bullrun18 > 2024-05-11 10:49 | Report Abuse

既然你認为油价会崩盘那你就去下单做空吧。

Posted by 8dragon > 2024-05-11 10:56 | Report Abuse

对于债务沉重的公司,虽然背景良好,股价却很难被推上, 所以对小投资者还是建议外观,时机成熟才行动吧！

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-11 12:37 | Report Abuse

油价崩盘是时间的问题。没有人可以准确预测几时但是当四架FPSO完成时就差不多了。

Posted by Bullrun18 > 2024-05-11 12:42 | Report Abuse

是嗎 ！ 那你就放胆的去下大大單放空吧 ！ 不好空口说而不去干。

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-11 12:46 | Report Abuse

你可以下一年半载的单？我没这本事

Posted by Bullrun18 > 2024-05-11 13:00 | Report Abuse

我可没说油价会崩盘干嘛走去放空呢。

Posted by Bullrun18 > 2024-05-11 13:11 | Report Abuse

早在两年前没有多少个人会去买YTLPOWER 大多数人都认为公司欠两百多亿的债务！不行这支股票不行不可以勳。

Posted by Bullrun18 > 2024-05-11 13:14 | Report Abuse

可是现在股價五块也有一大堆人每天都在追捧这只股票。

Posted by BursaVulture > 2024-05-11 13:15 | Report Abuse

Yinson charter rates are fixed. Oil up or down dont affect them. It is like signing a long term rental contract at fixed monthly price. I dont know why you guys kept saying oil up and yinson must go up. Kenanga got a report on which counter benefit or lose the most when oil price is up or down.


If oil up, pchem is one of the top winner in bursa. Oil up or down, dont affect yinson at all.

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-11 13:28 | Report Abuse

Yakah? Theoretically no impact to Yinson`s performance. Practically the FPSO charter will find reason to terminate the contract or give FPSO operators a lot of headaches during oil price down time. You check correlation between Yinson share price with global oil price?

Posted by BursaVulture > 5 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Yinson charter rates are fixed. Oil up or down dont affect them. It is like signing a long term rental contract at fixed monthly price. I dont know why you guys kept saying oil up and yinson must go up. Kenanga got a report on which counter benefit or lose the most when oil price is up or down.


If oil up, pchem is one of the top winner in bursa. Oil up or down, dont affect yinson at all.

Posted by Bullrun18 > 2024-05-11 13:49 | Report Abuse

没听过投资股票没有风儉怕就不好买这支股票你認为该买那几支比较适合你自己的股票就去那几个股票吧！

Posted by BursaVulture > 2024-05-11 14:15 | Report Abuse

@Jeffrey

agree, debt is very high. i also worry.

Posted by Bullrun18 > 2024-05-12 08:33 | Report Abuse

Fpso Atlanta reached Atlanta field brazil will start the connection soon …..

Posted by Sslee > 2024-05-12 09:01 | Report Abuse

https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=8618217

FPSO Atlanta location

Posted by Bullrun18 > 2024-05-12 09:33 | Report Abuse

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:755570/zoom:11

Reached field

Posted by OTB > 2024-05-12 11:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by holihom > 2024-05-12 12:54 | Report Abuse

I checked various website cant find 16 billion debt. As of Jan 31 24 Yinson debt to cash is 0.034, debt to equity 0.019, current ratio 1.06, cash ratio 0.73

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-12 12:56 | Report Abuse

Haha haha Uncle, manufacting quality control standard is up to 6 sigma which is 1 defect out of 1 million products produced.

FPSO is complex engineering project. Different project teams managed the FPSO development. There are too many dependency factors. No one could guarantee the outcome of each FPSO are 100% same.

Another big challenge is the subsea geography conditions of the oil field.

Not so simple as you think.

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-12 13:02 | Report Abuse

16 bill debt as of last quarter report. This quarter taken another 1.2 + 0.5 billion of debt. Don't forget that 1.7b perpetual bond sitting at Equity in the balance sheet which also a debts. Total debts up to date should be 19.4 billion.
I `m talking about real facts not fun facts.

Yinson’s RM16bil debt too big to ignore


https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1323355

In the last five financial years, Yinson’s debt level has ballooned by more than four-fold.

IT is no secret that Yinson Holdings Bhd has been piling on borrowings to fund its projects, but with total debt crossing RM16bil or more than double its market capitalisation, the indebtedness issue has become too glaring for shareholders to ignore.

The fact that the group sits on negative operating cash flow and that nearly 90% of its debt is US dollar-denominated have also added further concern.

Posted by OTB > 2024-05-12 13:20 | Report Abuse

Posted by holihom > 5 minutes ago | Report Abuse

I checked various website cant find 16 billion debt. As of Jan 31 24 Yinson debt to cash is 0.034, debt to equity 0.019, current ratio 1.06, cash ratio 0.73
-----------------------
All 10 analysts called a buy on this stock, no one calls a sell or hold.
All analysts said the debt is within control, not too high.
I am not an accountant, the loan is pledged and repayment is done from the payment of charter service from the oil company.
Yinson is not responsible for the loan once the FPSO vessel finds oil. The loan repayment is deducted from the charter rate payment from oil company.
I really has a problem to explain it.
The accounting of Yinson is very complicated, I really has a problem to understand it.

I prefer to wait until both FPSOs Atlanta and MQ find oil, I want to see the amount of negative free cash flow status once both FPSOs find oil.
Thank you.

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-12 13:25 | Report Abuse

Find the first oil doesn't mean everything OK can claim the full FPSO charter rate. The most important milestone is the final acceptance sign off from the client.

If the ship could not meet the agreed KPI the client would not sign the final acceptance. The loan repayment starting from 1st oil.

FPSO is a very high risk business, the return also high once everything is on track.

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-12 13:29 | Report Abuse

Armada Sterling V found the 1st oil in Jan 2024. Today already May 2024 still no news on final acceptance yet.

Don't know what is going on in India.

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-05-12 14:47 | Report Abuse

Hahaha did I lie about the super high 16 billion debts (latest is 19.4 billion) ? Did I lie about the negative 2.8 billion cash flow ?

Ask yourself do you know the FPSO business? What is the risk of this business?

It that easy to get final acceptance? Do you know the KPI stated in the contract?


You don't understand but keep promoting this stock here.