1. We maintain BUY on Press Metal Bhd with an unchanged fair value of RM4.50/share – pegged to 12x PE on FY14 core FD EPS of 37.5 sen.
2. We hosted a luncheon meeting last week and came away more upbeat on the company’s prospects. Press Metal is in the early stages of an earnings up-cycle.
3. Its strong investability is premised on:- (i) improved balance sheet, with net gearing expected to be reduced to 0.9x by year-end (from 1.9x at end-FY13); (ii) upturn in aluminium prices and premiums; and (iii) capacity boost following the production ramp-up at its two plants.
4. (i) Management expects aluminium premium to be sustainable at the current level, and to only face downward pressure when aluminium prices reaches USD2,000/metric tonne (MT) and above. Depending on the products, global premiums are between USD150-USD500/MT currently (vs. an average of USD150/MT a year earlier).
5. (ii) Its Mukah plant is currently wholly-producing billets, which command higher premiums compared to P1020 ingots. At the same time, it is increasing the production of A356 ingots at its Samalaju plant as the product commands similar margins to the billets. Both plants are already operating at a 100% utilisation rate.
6. (iii) Sumitomo’s acquisition of a 20% stake in the Samalaju plant has been completed with proceeds of USD140mil. At any given time, about 25%-30% of stocks are off-taken by Sumitomo which has a dedicated yard in Samalaju.
7. (iv) Aluminium spot prices (USD1,738.75/MT currently) are currently trading close to the trough level of a 4-year cycle (see chart 2). Prices are expected to increase due to a supply shortfall. For the first time in 10 years, there will be a global deficit (of 730,000 MT) of aluminium products this year.
8.(v) As heavy capex has been front-loaded, cash flow generated from its operations will be channelled towards the paring down of its debts. Net debt/EBITDA is expected to improve from 6.2x at end-FY13 to 1.2x by end-FY16F.
9. Press Metal is expected to release its 1QFY14 results on 29 May. We expect earnings to be slightly subdued as its Mukah plant was still being ramped up while aluminium prices and premiums had yet to increase. We forecast stronger earnings from 2QFY14 onwards.
10. Press Metal is currently trading at an attractive core FD PE of 9x. We advise investors to accumulate Press Metal given the recent retracement in share price. Maintain BUY.
We maintain BUY on Press Metal Bhd with an unchanged fair value of RM4.50/share – pegged to 12x PE on FY14 core FD EPS of 37.5 sen.
- We hosted a luncheon meeting last week and came away more upbeat on the company’s prospects. Press Metal is in the early stages of an earnings up-cycle.
- Its strong investability is premised on:- (i) improved balance sheet, with net gearing expected to be reduced to 0.9x by year-end (from 1.9x at end-FY13); (ii) upturn in aluminium prices and premiums; and (iii) capacity boost following the production ramp-up at its two plants.
- Key takeaways from the luncheon meeting are as follow:-
- (i) Management expects aluminium premium to be sustainable at the current level, and to only face downward pressure when aluminium prices reaches USD2,000/metric tonne (MT) and above. Depending on the products, global premiums are between USD150-USD500/MT currently (vs. an average of USD150/MT a year earlier).
- (ii) Its Mukah plant is currently wholly-producing billets, which command higher premiums compared to P1020 ingots. At the same time, it is increasing the production of A356 ingots at its Samalaju plant as the product commands similar margins to the billets. Both plants are already operating at a 100% utilisation rate.
- (iii) Sumitomo’s acquisition of a 20% stake in the Samalaju plant has been completed with proceeds of USD140mil. At any given time, about 25%-30% of stocks are off-taken by Sumitomo which has a dedicated yard in Samalaju.
- (iv) Aluminium spot prices (USD1,738.75/MT currently) are currently trading close to the trough level of a 4-year cycle (see chart 2). Prices are expected to increase due to a supply shortfall. For the first time in 10 years, there will be a global deficit (of 730,000 MT) of aluminium products this year.
- (v) As heavy capex has been front-loaded, cash flow generated from its operations will be channelled towards the paring down of its debts. Net debt/EBITDA is expected to improve from 6.2x at end-FY13 to 1.2x by end-FY16F.
- Press Metal is expected to release its 1QFY14 results on 29 May. We expect earnings to be slightly subdued as its Mukah plant was still being ramped up while aluminium prices and premiums had yet to increase. We forecast stronger earnings from 2QFY14 onwards.
- Press Metal is currently trading at an attractive core FD PE of 9x. We advise investors to accumulate Press Metal given the recent retracement in share price. Maintain BUY.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
8wpwtmt8
2,949 posts
Posted by 8wpwtmt8 > 2014-05-07 16:12 | Report Abuse
Yes, hundreds and hundreds lots of selling. Don't know when the selling will stop.