Grains are chemically complicated, and it takes time for yeast to ferment, but sugar molecules are small and simple for fermenting yeast to break down into ethanol, which makes it perfect for churning out the high-proof spirit needed for sanitizer.
Sugar prices are at an all-time high due to worldwide deficits during the 2019/2020 season. Indian production estimates for 2020/2021 are optimistic and could potentially fill in for importers that have been dependent on Brazil and Thailand.
Sugar: Supply Deficit Will Continue in 2020 January 22, 2020 | Sugar, Sugar Beet, Sugarcane Sugar prices in the world market have been unstable. In 2020, the raw sugar price has climbed by 8.1% since January 2nd, according to ISO data. This price surge was mainly attributed to the prospective supply decline within major producers.
Just as the world's top sugar traders forecast a global shortage of the commodity, No. ... The Southeast Asian nation said it aims to import about 1.4 million tons of raw sugar, or 1.33 million tons of the refined variety, for household use this year and in early 2021. That's a more than 11-fold increase on last year.Feb 12, 2020
Global sugar market shortage presents opportunity for MSM
KUALA LUMPUR: The global sugar market is facing its largest supply shortage in five years, allowing MSM Holdings Bhd to bolster its exports.
MIDF Research said the anticipated supply tightness of sugar in 2020, which is mainly driven by lower global sugar production, especially from India, has lifted the commodity’s global price.
This is evident from the increase in average raw Sugar No.11 Futures (NY11) to above US$13 per pound in the beginning of 2020 as compared to the range of between US$10 and US$12per pound in second half of 2019.
It said currently, the NY11 price is trading at about two-year highs and the market expects prices to stay between US$14 and US$15 per pound until end of the second quarter of 2020.
“Premised on this, we expect MSM’s profit margin to be improving gradually through higher average selling price (ASP) of its refined sugars as white-sugar prices have risen further than raw-sugar prices in the rally,” it said.
MIDF said currently, the group is in the midst of negotiating a new wholesale business model that could fetch a higher pricing for its refined sugars which is expected to have a gain of RM25 million a year.
“We also understand that the Malaysian government has not been issuing any import permit (AP). We view that the current market price of above US$13 per pound would discourage manufacturers to procure directly from abroad.
“Thus, we opine that this phenomenon could increase MSM’s bargaining power in the domestic market where it derives approximately 90 per cent of its revenue through higher pricing and sales volume,” it said.
MIDF said the recovery of the global raw sugar price amidst a global sugar deficit has given the group a breather as both the lower sugar stock levels at key markets and that the current premium white sugar prices have over raw sugar price are expected to bode well with the group.
“As a result, we believe that the group should be able to capitalise on this opportunity to improve its earnings prospects through higher ASP of its refined sugar and sales volume.
“Coupled with no sight of new AP issued to local manufacturers and increasing global raw sugar prices, this could increase the bargaining power of the group to negotiate a better pricing in its home market.
“This is attributable to the economies of scale and operational capabilities of the group that could provide the local manufacturers to obtain refined sugars at lower cost than directly procure from the global raw sugar market at current prices.
“However, we opine that the global raw sugar price would remain stable at this juncture and is highly dependent on the Indian inventory level which is still in surplus from previous two high production season and the relative prices of ethanol in Brazil,” it said.
MIDF has upgraded its recommendation on MSM to “neutral” from previously “sell” with a target price of 81 sen from 70 sen previously.
Indonesia issues permits to import 150,000 T of white sugar By Reuters on April 8, 2020 The government has pledged to ease import rules for certain foods during the coronavirus outbreak to ensure the country has enough food. She said the government expects the sugar shipments to arrive before the end of June, when the milling season is expected to start.
JAKARTA: Indonesia has issued import permits for 150,000 tonnes of white sugar, Musdhalifah Machmud, a deputy minister at the Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs told Reuters on Wednesday.
The government has appointed state companies Bulog, Rajawali Nusantara Indonesia (RNI) and Perusahaan Perdagangan Indonesia to each import 50,000 tonnes of sugar, Machmud said.
“White sugar stock in the market is thinning, so we need to take quick steps to handle this," she said, adding that Indonesia typically requires 220,000 tonnes of white sugar per month.
The government has pledged to ease import rules for certain foods during the coronavirus outbreak to ensure the country has enough food.
She said the government expects the sugar shipments to arrive before the end of June, when the milling season is expected to start.
RNI plans to open the tender for the sugar purchases next week, CEO Eko Taufik Wibowo told Reuters.
“Maybe we'll have the auction next week for arrival around 2-3 weeks after the import documents and auction are finished," he said.
Affin Hwang Capital downgrades MSM, target price 44 sen
(theedgemarkets.com / theedgemarkets.com April 09, 2020 08:42 am +08)
KUALA LUMPUR (April 9): Affin Hwang Capital Research has downgraded MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd to “Hold” at 42 sen with an unchanged target price (TP) of 44 sen and said following the 24% run-up in the share price in the month to date, the stock is now hovering at a more justifiable valuation.
In a note today, the research house said for 2020, it is still projecting a core loss of RM95.2 million as we foresee an overall softer demand for refined sugar against the backdrop of the Covid-19 disruptions.
“We are positive on the group’s expansion into value added downstream products.
“As part of MSM’s 3-year strategic plan, the group aims to diversify its product offerings to boost volume and uplift the utilisation of the Johor refinery (currently at c.20%).
“We understand that more enquiries are coming in for liquid sugar and premix, although larger volumes have yet to be secured. Further diversification into products such as cordial, condensed milk and chocolate are also on the cards for 2020-21.
“In view of the limited upside, we downgrade MSM to a Hold rating at an unchanged TP of 44 sen,” it said.
No planned divestment of MSM stake, says FGV Ahmad Naqib Idris / theedgemarkets.com
February 28, 2020 17:41 pm +08
-A+A KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 28): FGV Holdings Bhd is not in a rush to divest its stake in MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd, as conditions have been improving in the sugar industry, the plantation group said.
FGV group chief executive officer Datuk Haris Fadzilah Hassan said sugar prices have improved and that MSM is no longer tied to the long-term sugar supply agreement, which ended in December last year.
"These days, the situation surrounding the sugar industry is getting better. Prices are going up — it's currently at 14 US cents per pound now. One of the issues that was affecting MSM was the long-term sugar supply agreement, which has ended.
"There is no real urgency in terms of getting a partner or divesting our stake in MSM," he told the press today during a briefing on the group's financial performance for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2019 (FY19).
However, MSM still has to address the issue of overcapacity, said Haris, adding the company will look into rationalising its production capacity.
MSM CEO Datuk Khairil Anuar Aziz, who was also present during the briefing, said the supply of raw sugar is trending downwards and expects prices to range between 13 and 15 US cents this year.
While overcapacity is an issue, he highlighted that MSM has been receiving overseas enquiries.
"We have 2.25 million metric tonnes of capacity, which exceeds the 1.6 million metric tonnes of Malaysian demand. However, I would like to emphasise that we are getting enquiries now, which is positive for MSM," he said.
FGV CEO Haris said the group has been approached by parties, adding it is still in talks with a party from China regarding the offtake of some of the supply from MSM Johor.
Last November, he said FGV was in talks to export 700,000 tonnes of sugar out of the Johor refinery, which commenced operations in April last year.
White sugar futures in London posted strong gains as drying up of Indian white sugar exports due to the recent collapse in prices is causing concern over near-term availability for delivery against the May contract which will expire on Wednesday.
Sugar Export Curbs , Lower production, delayed imports , warehouse low supplies will further tighten sugar supply...MSM Will coronavirus spark a wave of raw food commodities price hike ?
Other than nta, all key indicators are in red. More than ONE billion loans is a main threat to support about two billion of revenue. LT prospect is dim unless change management. ST trading play at best.
U can see in news already that most of the covid-19 death victims have health issues especially diabetes. According to statistics, Malaysians have the highest diabetic rate in asean probably in the world too. Today people also try to have healthier diet & lifestyle especially due t covid-19 virus threat. Often nowadays u go out in m'sia to minum also u can hear ppl ask for kopi, neslo, milo or teh c kurang manis mahh. So less sugar consumption lohh. Where the sugar consumption trend is going? Apa lagi tak paham? Hehe
Coca cola sales worldwide also falling...many carbonated beverage manufacturers also came up with less sugar version of their drink products. Go look around the supermarket shelf lehh...even 3-in-1 white coffee or similar ones also offer less sugar lehhh....haiyooo...MSM really suffer in long term. The trend is changing worldwide. That is why u see MSM losing hundred of millions ringgit in the recent quarters lehhh...
FYI it's also good to know that sugar feeds into cancer cells. Go google it lehh... now u see so many disadvantages in taking more sugar in your diet..so why would world population wanna makan more gula lehh...haiyooo MSM is actually going that way already. Still u don't see it mehhh?
Aiyoo...best dun eat sugar and salt....eat raw food...try with the kids first and let me know ...bubble tea and softdrink better dun add sugar ...artificial or non artificial ...better drink plain water
Sorry ya i'm just stating facts. Btw i hope u are aware that MSM is suffering huge losses for many quarters and will be worse in the foreseeable future. If u are so confident with MSM then it would be great if u could give your analysis. Fallen dividend also a laughable 4 cent which is very low yield. Why would anyone invest into it especially it has bleak future prospects already.
What's the matter? Can't accept facts of life? If what I said aren't true, u can actually go check it out physically or google it. No use u being emotional here
Why not you create flyfree id and comments in AirAsia? AA loss many times bigger than MSM.
Posted by sugarfree > Apr 12, 2020 9:07 PM | Report Abuse What's the matter? Can't accept facts of life? If what I said aren't true, u can actually go check it out physically or google it. No use u being emotional here
EPF has been disposing stakes in this loss making company for 9 months consecutively until it ceased to be substantial shareholder. Wow that boost your confidence? Not to mention also MSM is making huge losses and now PN is going to milking it off lohh...price of essential items to be capped & controlled. How well do u think MSM's margin will do? I hope u can reply with some common senses lol
If a company does well so does its share price mahh. Why u so worried? However I'm just stating facts and if it offended u then u can counter with some facts and not whine & angry lehhh
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Alan Punpipi
7,570 posts
Posted by Alan Punpipi > 2020-04-07 13:27 | Report Abuse
Grains are chemically complicated, and it takes time for yeast to ferment, but sugar molecules are small and simple for fermenting yeast to break down into ethanol, which makes it perfect for churning out the high-proof spirit needed for sanitizer.