Posted by GooShem > 2020-02-02 15:07 | Report Abuse

lol. avoid lar. keep for long term? how many ten years poeple have?

Posted by OOMMGG > 2020-02-02 15:09 | Report Abuse

For me every price below 35 is good buy.
Foresee tomorrow Shanghai composite will drop 10% or more.

Posted by bclassinvest > 2020-02-02 15:16 | Report Abuse

I think the retracement has been the culmination of a perfect storm. A lot of investors including those in this forum were expecting a positive outcome from Claire court case. The disappointment plus the current sentiments caused by the coronavirus has been the major reasons why there was a big drop. Plus, now some ppl worry Abd further impairments for the last quarter. I look at it from both side of the argument and this is my conclusion. While there is a possibility of impairment for Q4, I think if BA were to appeal against the court decision, then there won’t be any impairment yet. So, hopefully we will get something to cheer about before Valentines Day.

Posted by TAK1 > 2020-02-02 16:00 | Report Abuse

All u spinning here looking at the virus capability its around 2 months to control it as such all except for glove and mask manufacturer health product will have to braze 2 months and if war erupts china will be in a very weak spot now.

Posted by TAK1 > 2020-02-02 16:05 | Report Abuse

Chinese experts have taken much time to understand the virus its strong no vaksin found yet that shows shutdown of china for 2 months is inevitable.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 16:06 | Report Abuse

OOMMGG, you can't control how market feels about anything.

Even if Armada Claire is redeployed. Even if Armada Kraken is 100% uptime and impairment reversal on 900mil. Even if they sell half of their asset to bring the gearing down to 1.

There is NOTHING you can do if the market feels armada is worth 20c just the same as if DUFU shoots all the way up to RM10.

What people do is not important. Most important thing is, what you gonna do.

The will be fear mongers that benefits IDSS from a sell down.
The will be cheer leaders that benefits from contra from a new high.

Those longterm investor who they believe what's the value of the company will share why they have invested and also why they chose not to invest. One thing for sure, they are consistent. I bet those who are not interest when it was 15sen will not be interested now. They won't come here pok pek pok pek. It's either they are interested and hoping their pok pek pok pek will bring the price down and not miss the chance this time or they are here to short.

U see how easily I debunk CIMB statement? 2017 no annual asset impairment. WHY NOW?
If CIMB still hold their 3% stake, CIMB would write "No foreseeable impairment in Q4,19 financial report just like Q4,17 report. Maybe Claire impairment will appear in Q4,2020 offset by possible impairment reversal from Kraken uptime.". I think I can be pretty good IB analyst myself.

Posted by GooShem > 2020-02-02 16:11 | Report Abuse

long term downtrend

Posted by SuperPanda > 2020-02-02 16:23 | Report Abuse

obviously, my question is simple and yet the answer is overwhelmingly sideways..

is slowdown in construction will affect oil demand significantly? yes or no

even my site supervisor can answer.

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-02-02 16:27 | Report Abuse

RJ87, if the price drop to 0.30 tomorrow, will you consider to sell it?

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-02-02 16:28 | Report Abuse

I believe there must be some action from Mikekim and IK tomorrow, so good luck to u all. they are extremely quiet today.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2020-02-02 17:02 | Report Abuse

@omg,

point no 1- if you lose in court to claim your right and court dismissed it, means it was not your right to claim. this is more to damage claim rather than trade receivables claim. market might expect it will win, so when it didnt, hope fade away, market react, bad sentiment.

point no 2- when armada post 1.2b loss with impairments, is the price down to .145 due to impairments itself? no, its not. it down bcoz risk of default loan. it resolve when AK pump money and armada rally till .28

point no 3- is impairment reversal improve anything on its gearing ratio, the main problem? no, gearing remain so thats not a catalyst to look for.

next, is there any impairment coming, probably yes and no. armada have 2 asset idle at this moment.

Posted by OOMMGG > 2020-02-02 17:06 | Report Abuse

See what China done on tomorrow. With this huge monies pump into market, Shanghai composite may not drop a lot.

1.2万亿元明天见！央行定心丸来了 力保金融市场稳定

落定！央行给市场吃下一颗定心丸，史上最大规模公开市场逆回购操作将于明日展开。

央行网站2日消息，为维护疫情防控特殊时期银行体系流动性合理充裕和货币市场平稳运行，2020年2月3日中国人民银行将开展1.2万亿元公开市场逆回购操作投放资金，确保流动性充足供应，银行体系整体流动性比去年同期多9000亿元。

Posted by OOMMGG > 2020-02-02 17:09 | Report Abuse

Super panda, thanks for sharing. You have provided some insight which I didn’t think of it.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 17:10 | Report Abuse

SHHHHHH....OOMMGG, i wanna see how spinninglotus gonna short Chinese Market and die kiao kiao...=D

He is a bad person. I shouldn't be nice to him.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 17:13 | Report Abuse

which two asset panda?

Posted by paktua73 > 2020-02-02 17:15 | Report Abuse

RJ87@SHHHHHH....OOMMGG, i wanna see how spinninglotus gonna short Chinese Market and die kiao kiao...=D

He is a bad person. I shouldn't be nice to him.
02/02/2020 5:10 PM
======================
betul2..
hehehehe..

tut tut

Posted by OOMMGG > 2020-02-02 17:16 | Report Abuse

This is how China works. Any foreseeable big selling pressure will be countered by central bank measures. This is not the first time, but this time round the released monies is super huge.

Posted by OOMMGG > 2020-02-02 17:25 | Report Abuse

Go and check on the China blog, all the retailer there is relieved by this measure.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 17:44 | Report Abuse

I will suggest you to read about 500 years history. Or read Ray Dalio's book on his vast equity market experience.

What I always make fun of TA is because they are too zoomed in. U think China is gonna live for next 3-6months is it? Zoom urself out abit.

If i3lurker is an 75 years old uncle like my dad, I will suggest him to take all his money to spend on himself. No point to grow his wealth anymore. What worth passing on if he has anything is his wisdom. It's the duty of his next generation to filter what's useful and what's not and if there is anything useful at all.

But for dudes like myself with 40-50 years more to live; heheheehe, I have more time to fool around. Yeah, I'm gambling 3-5 years of my annual income. I can afford to be wrong because I will make it back every 3-5 years. How many was a bankrupt and came back strong? As long as time on your side, do as much. Do as many mistakes that you can. Most importantly, face ur mistakes and learn. Running away from ur mistakes will prove more costly than facing them.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 18:18 | Report Abuse

U know what we should do OOMMGG? we should hang out.
I believe you are about my age, hardworking, curious and good time to take risk.

I will share with you my notes from TIP and Masters in Business.
Maybe we split the playlist where u listen to a few and I listen a few. We come out discuss about them.

Ray Dalio pokai in 1982 at the age of 33y.o.
He is now multi-billionaire now at 71y.o. He recovered in 30 years.

I believe many pokai too. What separates the pokai and stays pokai with those came back is ability to face the mistakes. Those who failed and still failing are those that runs away their mistake their entire life.

Posted by OOMMGG > 2020-02-02 18:42 | Report Abuse

Let see what happen tomorrow.
From China news, apart from central bank pumping huge monies into market, other necessary measure/ new regulation also have been taken to prevent short selling. With this measure, wether we like or not, the selling pressure will be countered to minimal. China market will always has magic to surprise whenever there is expectation of huge selling pressure.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2020-02-02 18:45 | Report Abuse

RJ, SC vessels caspian sea

Posted by OOMMGG > 2020-02-02 18:49 | Report Abuse

Like what of Superpanda mentioned before, once the peak of number of new infection cases arrived, the oversold market will reverse. The China experts with past experience in SARS estimated that the peak of outburst will arrive some where before or after Chap Goh Mei. It is about 6 to 8 days from now. Let see if their estimate is correct by coming Weekend.

Posted by OOMMGG > 2020-02-02 18:55 | Report Abuse

If the monies pump in working and by another 6 days from now the outburst of outbreaks peaked, the market will have drastic reverse from selling market then.
Let wait and see.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 18:56 | Report Abuse

They just click ONE BUTTON. That's IDSS enable/disabled button. =D

But, spinninglotus will be saved too. Haahhahaha

Posted by OOMMGG > 2020-02-02 19:00 | Report Abuse

Spinning lotus, what l sharing is reading from China News and blog. It is there for everyone to access.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 19:16 | Report Abuse

Panda, if I understand correctly, that's OMS vessel specially built for Lukoil project.

https://www.bumiarmada.com/Web/WebPage.aspx?p0=322&p1=322&p2=0

Posted by OOMMGG > 2020-02-02 20:04 | Report Abuse

If history is going to repeat, Shanghai’composite will dips first when market open on tomorrow, then it will recover due to central bank measure. Good for contra but bad for IDSS.

Posted by OOMMGG > 2020-02-02 20:10 | Report Abuse

Frankly I have no idea at all how BA will react tomorrow.

Posted by OOMMGG > 2020-02-02 20:12 | Report Abuse

My choice: Stay put, 不动如山，quoted by Fong Siling

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 20:23 | Report Abuse

bullrun1985, people got life to live la. If I don't hv temporary mobility issues, I won't be here. I will only be here when I'm in a meeting that bores the crap out of me during weekdays. Evidently, they can live their life very well without looking at the market.

For armada, if it rebounds....I will consider to either hold/sell. Bought quite abit from the selldown for quick money. If I'm selling, I'm selling in the morning. If enough people queue sell at all the higher price. It will cap the price from going up. But that will IDSS will hv to short at lower price.

If it drops, I will collect more and hold. Then, I will go missing until July. Another straight 2 strong quarters. We will contain and establish the severity of wuhan virus by then. Price will rally again.

To prevent price from going to new low. I strongly suggest don't play contra. If u do, close ur position by 3.30pm. Price will DROP if force selling is stronger than IDSS force buying.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2020-02-02 20:25 | Report Abuse

@RJ, yes, the vessel name is armada constructor and armada installer. Idling without job.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 20:37 | Report Abuse

Similar analogy, if there is a force selling in the property market, housing price will tank.

It already started tanking in property above 1 mil. 16% dropped.

Bottomline is...Don't buy over valued stuff. If u buy liao, then don't sell low if the property has good location. Property price will grow again when GDP grows in the next 5-10 years time.

I have to admit, it's a good chance to sell ur mid tier property and collect undervalued high-tier property at the moment.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 20:59 | Report Abuse

Panda, u r in construction. U know construction and developer outsource piling job to Econpile. The benefits is they do not need to maintain and depreciate the piling asset. If project got cancelled, no debts problem with the idling asset.

Here's Arnada's advantages. They are paid to build the ship. They are paid for the jobs. And they get to keep the ship. Else, why do u think Yinson is valued so much. Similarly can be argued why Armada isn't? reason is Armada sui siao got two customer convenient cancel project in 2016 lo.

if u hate armada, u should hate econpile the same.

Lets hope CEO, and CFO manages to pare down the debts by selling and redeploying asset. Valuation will increase tremendously. Zoom out abit.

Like mikekim says, see the big picture. People that sees big picture won't panic.

If Fong Siling like u guys see things in such a narrow manner; day day buy high when everybody chase and day day sell low when IDSS come scare him? He won't get passed 1 year investing. All money gone cheated by IDSS liao. Wakakaka

He survived few crises liao. Now, u hv to decide where u gonna stand in 3 years and 5 years.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2020-02-02 21:50 | Report Abuse

i dont get what do you mean armada was paid to build the ship.

if you pay grab driver to bring you to klia, does it mean the grab driver car loan is being paid by you?

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 22:09 | Report Abuse

That depends on what's the deal.

Got difference bro. If this whole world don't have car. A fella engages to you to build a car so that he can go KLIA, would u bear the cost and build a damm car just to send the fella to KLIA for a trip when when u won't even know if there will ever be anyone else to charter your car ever again? Hell no.

You will say OK, "I will build the car for you. But you will hv to bear the cost." If he still think it's worth it, then proceed if where ever he is going worth the money. Now it's like the fella got the letter that the deal can't pay for the car you are building. He calls it off. Then, you keep what's left of the built car. And u sue the fella for lost of potential profit.

Cannot equate public transport with FPSO transport. You don't see ppl chartering FPSO everyday.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 22:14 | Report Abuse

Then u argue on court, "my time, if not wasted on building your stupid car; I can do something else that makes money elsewhere. Now, my time is lost. U have to pay for that too".

Then the fella wants defend himself by saying "The car window doesn't work as specified. Based on the SA, i have the right to terminate the contract".

You know the rest of narrative. =D

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 22:18 | Report Abuse

Gong kia will have neither reasoning or logical thinking ability.

Small brain operates differently. Obviously, there is some truth in what I say la.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2020-02-02 22:18 | Report Abuse

yinson is value so much bcoz market value it that way. need to ask yinson shareholders why they agree on that value. yinson gearing is half of armada now.

for me yinson is just lucky, armada is not.. when kraken is build, oil market slump.. when oil start to recover, kraken have commissioning issue and have to pay enquest, then almost default on loan.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2020-02-02 22:25 | Report Abuse

RJ, you have your own understanding of the case and i will keep it that way. its your right.

i will be busy in coming week with site handover, so i will be less commenting.

whatever happen to the market, just chill and relax. when there is problem, there is opportunity.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 22:29 | Report Abuse

u come back with a brain or facts la. Waste my time to educate u.

Posted by Letsfly > 2020-02-02 22:48 | Report Abuse

Market would probably be diarrhea tomorrow. :)

Posted by TAK1 > 2020-02-02 22:55 | Report Abuse

Japan send destroyer to hormuz turki moving troops to idlib vaksin when??? Its better to relax keep calm sell high buy low and chill. JUST BUY AND WAIT.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 23:02 | Report Abuse

I talk with FACTS. pg 13
https://ecourts.justice.wa.gov.au/eCourtsPortal/Decisions/DownloadDecision/8912903f-39c1-4d26-8c3e-6e1ea0b42e6a?unredactedVersion=False

4 April 2014 - Completion of dockyard work
31 Second, on 4 April 2014, after its dockyard conversion work was
done (explained without objection in AB's written closing submissions
to be at a cost of in the order of $US380 million), the Armada Claire
finally sailed off from the Keppel Shipyard, Singapore and towards
Australian territorial waters.

Cost of Armada Claire is USD380mil. If the charter contract is only worth USD275mil. You build for what? You build to lose USD100mil right?

Then, u refer to pg 113

4 April 2014 The Armada Claire FPSO sails from the Keppel Shipyard,
Singapore, bound for the Balnaves Field in the Carnarvon Basin
some 170 km northwest of Dampier, Western Australia.

7 April 2014 The Environment Plan is revised by Apache.

9 April 2014 Apache, AB and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation execute
the Letter of Quiet Enjoyment (the LQE).

11 April 2014 The Armada Claire arrives at the Balnaves Field.

9 August 2014 Apache issues to AB the Certificate of Ready for First Oil ('RFFO').

12 August 2014 AB issues invoice in the amount of USD$5,500,000 in relation to
Milestone B.11 pursuant to the Services Agreement.

12 August 2014 AB issues an invoice in the amount of USD$2,200,000 in relation
to Milestone K.4 claimed pursuant to the SA.

I'm not sure if Armada has pumped any oil yet. But I also don't know why Armada getting paid USD7.7Mil.

That's like U just arrive at ur customer place for pick up. Then, maybe Ur grab customer pays you to stick USD7.7 mil Rolls-Royce emblem on the car you build to make him look cool or smtg on the way to KLIA right? I don't know. =D

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 23:10 | Report Abuse

Panda, u know we have disagreement here and there...But, there is a mutual respect and I don't usually speak to people in such condescending manner unless provoked.

The below isn't directed to you.

RJ87 u come back with a brain or facts la. Waste my time to educate u.
02/02/2020 10:29 PM

It don't think Armada pays USD380mil ust to get f*cked over. I don't think WEJ pays for everything either. It's somewhere in between. Details lies in Annexure D and the SA.

Learn a boat load.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 23:23 | Report Abuse

Gearing calculation also another thing.

Impairment is non material. But it reduces NTA.
NTA down, gearing goes up. If day day change contract value based oil price. Gearing mar up down up down like oil price movement? Funny right?

Laugh die me.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2020-02-02 23:25 | Report Abuse

we are talking abt SC vessels caspian sea that idle without job which you asked me to tell

when i replied with answer, you come with your own opinion for the idle cost and brought claire court case and think i need to be educated

bro, idle cost for the sc vessel (end contract) vs claire case (contract termination), is obviously different.

thanks for sharing me your stupidity. i will not reply to you again

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 23:50 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha...

I noticed the lag. When I posted Wah pia...it's suppose to be directed for spinninglotus comment that I don't know what rubbish i'm talking about. How did this mutherf*cka remove his post. Fall straight into this gong kia trap. Post already quickly delete also got. And make it appear like the comment below is directed to you.

RJ87 "u come back with a brain or facts la. Waste my time to educate u."

Now, it appears right after ur comment. Laugh die me. I don't blame u if u r mad at me.

For the Caspian job. I don't know the details. Job completed.
Only material impact is maintaining a crew that's not utilized. Dunno sell already can save how much. Like Perdana, see how much savings from Administration Expenses.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 23:55 | Report Abuse

spinninglotus must be having a laugh there. Cilaka. Kena trap.

Learn my lesson...when wanna call people soh@i...have to quote what they say and only call them one.

Spinninglotus soh@i!...u come back with a brain or facts la. Waste my time to educate u.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-02 23:58 | Report Abuse

paiseh ya Bro Panda...hehehe