A Joe Biden win at next month’s U.S. elections will likely be an upward catalyst for oil prices because it will increase costs for the shale patch and will likely result in a weaker U.S. dollar, according to Goldman Sachs.
“We do not expect the upcoming U.S. elections to derail our bullish forecasts for oil and gas prices, with a Blue Wave likely to be in fact a positive catalyst,” the investment bank said a research note on Sunday, as carried by CNBC.
Clean Energy is in. Dirty Energy is out. That's what they want you to think.
It's not as easy as that. Oil is in a cyclical downturn, not a secular one.In fact, global demand for oil is still growing, and will continue to grow for at least 10 years, my estimate is more likely 20 years, because the path to renewables isn’t as obvious as media and politicians want you to believe.
Investors need to wake up and see the forest from the trees. The pullback in demand of oil this year is definitely disruptive to the sector, but it will recover within 2 to 3 years. Then, we will likely see consolidation in this sector, which will lead to scale benefits for the highest quality assets. 10 to 20 years as demand matures, oil and gas will have undergone much consolidation, and will shift from a growth business to a rent seeking business, much like tobacco is becoming today.
The transition to clean energy has many obstacles, namely:
Pollution tied to clean energy infrastructure. Geopolitical power plays, namely the Chinese threat. Political reticence to take bold action.
In the last presidential debate, Joe Biden mentioned a transition away from fossil fuels. It is important to understand what he actually plans on. Electricity net zero carbon emissions by 2035 doesn’t really make a dent. Electricity accounts for less than 1% of America’s use of petroleum.
Just like Armada, Mabel is waiting patiently to cash in when it beaches RM 2...
Plantation has now overtaken over Energy on the Podium due to CPO all time high while Brent is now below USD 40. Mabel Energy major exposure is downstream activities while is less affected with Brent Volatility. Serba is in the downstream business. Current Energy is sitting on P4 behind
KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 31): Malaysia reported 659 new Covid-19 infections today, 80.3% or 529 of which came from the worst-hit state of Sabah, while the Klang Valley contributed 10.6% or 70 cases. This raised the country's cumulative positive cases to 31,548, according to the Ministry of Health (MoH). The number of recoveries hit 1,000 today — the country's highest so far in a day — as recoveries exceeded new infections for the second day in the past four days; on Thursday, recoveries came in at 685 versus 649 new infections. This means a total of 21,248 patients have recovered so far, yielding a recovery rate of 67.4% of total confirmed cases. As for active cases, which carry transmission risk, the tally is now down to 10,051 from 10,392 yesterday. The death toll, meanwhile, remained at 249 or 0.8% of total infections, with no new additions. No new infection clusters were reported today, according to the MoH. This means the number of active clusters remains at 33, while 114 clusters have ended. In Sabah, 205 cases originated from existing clusters, while 203 cases were discovered via contact tracing and 121 infections were discovered from other Covid-19 screening tests.
Selangor saw 55 new cases, 18 of which came from existing clusters, followed by 22 from contact tracing, and 15 from other Covid-19 tests. Labuan and Kuala Lumpur saw 12 and 11 cases respectively, followed by Sarawak (nine cases), Perak (six), Putrajaya (four), Kedah (two), Pulau Pinang (two), Terengganu (two), Pahang (one) and Kelantan (one). Meanwhile, 137 cases or 20.8% of total infections today were linked to the prison clusters and temporary detention centres, namely the Kepayan cluster (26 cases) and the Rumah Merah cluster (111 cases). Of the 659 cases reported today, one was an imported infection involving a foreigner who travelled from Bangladesh.
Declining R0 During the question and answer (Q&A) session today, MoH director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said Malaysia's R0, which measures the contagiousness of the virus, was brought down to 1.5 last week — from 2.2 at the start of the third wave of infections. A higher R0 translates into a higher rate of infection in the community. For comparison, the second wave had an R0 rate of 3.55. “Based on the projection for R0 of 1.5, daily new cases should be 1,357. If the R0 is 1.0, it should be 950 cases per day. However, we have been seeing daily cases of below 950 — at 799 yesterday and 659 today. So our R0 is currently below 1.0. “This means that the measures that have been enforced under the CMCO (conditional movement control order) for the past two weeks — that is, by allowing economic sectors to operate while toning down social, education and sports activities — have resulted in a lower rate of infection,” he added. Tan Choe Choe
Covid-19: Malaysia’s recovery on track, infectivity rate decreasing, says Health DG * NATION * Saturday, 31 Oct 2020 7:00 PM MYT By TARRENCE TAN and AUSTIN CAMOENS
PUTRAJAYA: Despite daily three-digit Covid-19 infection figures in the country, Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah says Malaysia is on the road of recovery. This was because the projected figures were much lower than expected, as the Health Ministry was predicting a four-digit spike of 1,357 cases on Thursday (Oct 29), based on the 1.5 infectivity rate, or known as the R nought (R0), said Dr Noor Hisham.
If the R0 level was at 1.0, Dr Noor Hisham said Malaysia would have gotten 950 cases on Oct 30 and 955 cases on Oct 31. “But, there were only 659 cases on Oct 31. This means our R0 level is less than 1.0, ” said Dr Noor Hisham during a press conference at the Health Ministry in Putrajaya on Saturday.
“This meant that the conditional movement control order (MCO) that allows only the economic sector to function has a positive effect on reducing our R0 level to 1, ” he added. For an R0 level of 1, it means that each Covid-19 patient will infect one other person. Dr Noor Hisham also credited the lowered R0 level to the efforts of the Health Ministry, adding that they are now targeting to reduce the infectivity level to 0.3. Dr Noor Hisham also urged Malaysians to play their role in ensuring SOPs are adhered to in order to curb Covid-19.
Wow, Superb Good news ! Covid-19=>Malaysia’s recovery on track ! Furthermore next week is budget 2021 week and US presidential election will be over next week Wednessday ! So, next week start onwards will be the bull market for world stock markets including Malaysia’s KLSE !
Between 2009 and 2015 oil production had increased by 4.4 million BPD. This was the fastest increase in oil production in U.S. history, and marked the largest increase in oil production during a single term of any president. If natural gas liquids (NGLs) are included, the gains during Obama’s first seven years were 6 million BPD. U.S. net imports of finished products like gasoline turned into net exports during Obama’s second term, and next imports of finished products plus crude oil fell by over 6 million BPD.
Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 45th president on January 20, 2017. Oil production had declined during President Obama’s last year in office as the average annual price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $43.34/bbl. But in 2017 that rose to $50.79/bbl, and then to $65.20/bbl in 2018. Oil production followed prices higher. During the first three years of President Trump’s first term, annual U.S. oil production gained 3.4 million BPD. Net imports of crude oil and finished products turned into net exports in late 2019. U.S. oil production eclipsed the previous 1970 peak (although if you include NGLs, that peak was eclipsed in 2013).
But then the Covid-19 pandemic crushed oil demand. Now, less than a month before the election, U.S. oil production is at 10.5 million BPD — a significant decline from the 12.2 million BPD of 2019.
The net impact of the past 50 years of U.S. presidents was a long, slow decline of oil production that was only reversed when the hydraulic fracturing revolution began.
U.S. oil production didn’t fall under Bush and rise under Obama based on the policies of these presidents. Production behaved according to policies that had been put in place years earlier, and in accordance with the behavior of oil prices in previous years. Jimmy Carter experienced a rise in oil production because the Alaska Pipeline—approved by Nixon—was completed while Carter was in office. Obama and Trump experienced a rise in oil production following years of climbing oil prices — which led to a fracking boom.
Presidents publicly fretted for decades about the loss of energy independence for the U.S. They tried many different approaches to solving this problem—from serious intervention in the energy markets to letting the free market solve the problem. Many billions of dollars were spent on programs with the intent of eliminating dependence on foreign oil.
Yet in 1969, Americans depended on oil imports for 10% of their consumption, and in 2008 that number had risen to over 50% of consumption. That trend was only reversed when fracking caused U.S. oil production to surge.
Thus, a president may have some impact on U.S. oil production, but it is mostly a factor of influences well beyond their control.
New York (CNN Business)The Dow and S&P 500 were up on Monday, one day before Election Day, when Wall Street expects Joe Biden will win the presidency and Democrats will retake the Senate and maintain control of the House.
Stocks opened sharply higher before encountering some volatility and paring some gains. The Dow (INDU) was still up 1.4%, or some 360 points, mid-afternoon. At its high point, the index gained more than 500 points. The broader S&P 500 (SPX) was up 0.9%. Both benchmarks are retracing some of their losses from last week, when they recorded their worst week since March. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) reversed its earlier gains and fell 0.2% in mid-afternoon trade. Although stocks typically favor Republican policies, investors are eager for more fiscal stimulus, that will buoy an economy headed south once again as coronavirus cases soar. Investors predict a "blue wave" would lift the chances of a comprehensive stimulus deal getting passed in the winter.
A Biden win would also likely mean less news and headline risk for stocks in the term to come, investors believe. "If the polls are roughly right, Joe Biden is going to win the election comfortably and we will know that before midnight tomorrow," said Andy Laperriere and Don Schneider at Cornerstone Macro. Even if the polls are wrong, the evidence is still pointing to a Biden victory, they added. Prediction market PredictIt puts a Biden win at 65%. "We have been emphasizing that the Senate outcome is important for the trajectory of fiscal policy," said Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst in a note to clients, even though neither party is likely to get a filibuster-proof majority so bipartisan cooperation could still be needed for the next stimulus bill. "Under any election scenario we expect a $1.5 trillion plus fiscal package, possibly as early as just post-election," Hollenhorst said. Congress has been stuck on negotiating a second stimulus deal since the summer. Investors have been waiting for results, getting jumpy at any headlines about the progress. What this really tells us is that markets believe the US economy needs more help getting back on track as the effects of the CARES Act are running out. So far the economy's improvements have been rather uneven. For example, millions of jobs have been added back since the spring lockdown, but the economy is still down more than 10 million jobs from February. Millions of Americans still need government benefits to make ends meet, and that's bad news because the US economy relies heavily on consumer spending. Analysts at Goldman Sachs (GS) expect consumer spending to wane in the coming months because of the Covid-19 resurgence is keeping people at home and any new stimulus package will probably take until 2021 to kick in. And as if this election and its repercussions weren't enough for investors to think about, the week is also filled with important economic reports, including the October jobs report. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management reported that America's factories did better than economists had predicted in October. The sector's purchasing managers' index rose to 59.3 points from 55.4 points in September, its highest level since September 2018. Any value over 50 denotes an growth in the sector.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
i3lurker
14,260 posts
Posted by i3lurker > 2020-10-30 11:46 | Report Abuse
Thats because vaccine distribution is now rolling out globally as we speak
its also winter
All O&G will limit up soon
Everything is NOT what they seem
Appearances are deceiving
Thats also why Armada shark do a very special short to collect low today
Sslee haha Mabel is now in the Serbadk and O&G sinking ships
30/10/2020 11:36 AM