Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-10 17:22 | Report Abuse

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-11 11:36 | Report Abuse

Early this year, when Black Pearl was trading below 15 sen, many scared to buy..

Now so nice and lovely...

Now also waiting patiently to unleash my Armada Black Pearls at 30 sen...

My Blonde Hair turns White oledi...

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-11 11:46 | Report Abuse

Last year we target at 60 sen...

It starts to consolidate at 55 sen hence we should learn that Armada operator will not allow the share price to reach 60 sen..

Sharing this important lesson to all the newbies here. Try not to be too greedy. Leave some tips on the table to Armada Operator. They got kittens too to feed.

That's why we learn History lesson in schools. Thank God my History teacher is a handsome man.
He motivate me to rajin rajin come to his class..

Have a great week everyone!

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by DreamSorcerer > 2020-10-11 14:30 | Report Abuse

So what's up, guys

Posted by DreamSorcerer > 2020-10-11 14:31 | Report Abuse

Any interesting latest developments?

Posted by Flymetothemoon > 2020-10-11 22:46 | Report Abuse

When will it drop to 0.20

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-12 08:21 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. can green today?

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-12 09:26 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. steady. maintain.

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 10:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 11:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-12 13:22 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. lembik lembik pasal oil price lembik again. Bulan depan QR keluar. satu kali kasi keras keras punya. boleh kah.

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 13:36 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-12 14:02 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. tenguk harga minyak brent. April to Jun 19.33 to 43.94. Q2 net profit 120mil. Jul to Sept 39.31 to 46.53. Q3 profit should be better than Q2 right. By normal thinking lah. why after Q2 result can up to above 30sen. After Q3 result out should be above 30 right. Why still have seller at 25sen? No common sense kah?

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 14:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by SmallFishyy > 2020-10-12 15:37 | Report Abuse

QR haven't out yet. Patience..

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-10-12 16:44 | Report Abuse

or it might drop below 20 sen

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-12 17:28 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. closed red. ini supertanker pakai steam kah. apa sal tak steam one.

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-12 17:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mabel > 2020-10-12 21:51 | Report Abuse

Perhaps this Supertanker needs BioFuel from our Palm Oil Plantations....

Meow

Posted by lauys96 > 2020-10-12 22:05 | Report Abuse

alamak tomoro drop again

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-13 08:34 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. today can green?

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-13 21:03 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. closed white. unchanged.

Posted by CHLEONG888 > 2020-10-14 07:37 | Report Abuse

only will perform after availability of vaccines

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-14 08:45 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. today can green?

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-14 09:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-14 10:20 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. steady. maintain. white/green. white/green. white/green

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-14 10:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-14 13:25 | Report Abuse

haiyaaaaaaa

Posted by moneycome123456 > 2020-10-14 19:22 | Report Abuse

HL give target price 0.60, why price no up?

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-14 20:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Yu_and_Mee > 2020-10-14 21:07 | Report Abuse

stupid TP of 0.60, i think 0.06 is more reasonable

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-14 21:32 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. Oil price not break out above 44. OnG tidur lagi.

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-14 21:32 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. closed white. unchanged.

Posted by JoshuaMS7 > 2020-10-15 08:41 | Report Abuse

oil price up for 2 days about 4% to 43 usd due to US inventory dropping fast!! Today might got show!!

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-15 08:42 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. today can green? Brent price above 43 again. Can break out or not? 3rd attempt to break 44.

Posted by JoshuaMS7 > 2020-10-15 09:02 | Report Abuse

yaya let see tonight EIA inventory report again!! Fundamentally must drop continue only can bring oil price breakeven!!

Posted by Jojobaa > 2020-10-15 14:14 | Report Abuse

Armada's days of impairments are over, the 300 mil on the OMS is the last one.

With Armada D1 being extended, the next expiry of charter from firmed period is only coming in 2024. Debts are being paid down from its EBITDA of RM1 billion. Debts only increased because USD had appreciated to USD4.40 as at 1st quarter and USD4.28 as at 2nd quarter. RM1.5 billion has been paid, translating to debt paring down of RM250 million a quarter. Enquest, its customer for Kraken has breakeven field of USD10-15 bucks, so they are still above water, and unless oil price plunge below USD10 for prolonged period of time, chances of them terminating is close to zero.

OMS is loss making, but still EBITDA positive. I read somewhere that Armada Constructor and Installer has assumed no jobs till 2022, so any further impairments before then is slim.

Armada will probably make around RM300-400 million a year here onwards. Management is doing the right thing, paring down debt aggressively and maintaining operational consistency.

I am leaning towards AmInvestment and Hong Leong's target price of RM0.50-RM0.60. Over next few quarters, once it makes 2 consecutive quarters of RM80-100 million profit, Koon Yew Yin's followers will buy as it is trading at 5x and meets his golden rule. Debt is not a problem as they are generating substantial EBITDA. Interest rate reduction of 2% also saves Armada RM50 million in interest cost a year.

Posted by Jojobaa > 2020-10-15 14:23 | Report Abuse

CEO said FPSO is immune to oil price. Why? Because before they commit to a project they screen through the profile of clients and primarily the breakeven cost of oil prices. At USD40, most of its clients are still generating positive EBITDA and profit, with breakeven at USD15 and 27 respectively for Enquest, so no oil price will not pose a serious risk to its FPSO business under current conditions. An oil field is drilled after forecasting for 10 or more years and therefore its clients will continue to drill as long as it is generating positive cash flow. Termination of oil field will leave operators cripple as they cannot produce oil clients has to be severely financially distressed to take this step.

Posted by Jojobaa > 2020-10-15 14:29 | Report Abuse

Some people are spooked with Maybank's valuation. First we have to understand that Maybank has written off approximately RM10 billion of its extension orderbook. This is a very drastic assumption. The recent extension of Armada TGT1 and Armada D1 has shown that not only will clients extend, they are even extending for longer durations (in the case of Armada D1) as oil field may still be producing robustly. Imagine if you just write off RM10 billion off a company's books. I don't see him doing the same on Yinson's orderbook.

Furthermore, Maybank has put a value of zero on the values of its OMS division. This is also not a fair assumption as its OMS division is still EBITDA positive. If an asset is EBITDA positive, it is still generating cash for its owner. The losses relates to the losses relative to the investment made on the assets but Armada has also been selling its OMS assets at gains (meaning sales price exceed book value).

Maybank has essentially valued Armada as if it is not cash flow positive, in financial distress and is at risk to declare bankrupty. I can assure you if you look at the cash flow statement, Armada has kitchen sunk most if not all its legacy investments and is a healthy company generating enough cash flow to pay off its debts and generate earnings for its shareholders.

Posted by Jojobaa > 2020-10-15 14:34 | Report Abuse

Last but not least, there is also skepticism with regards for Armada to repay in excess of RM600 million over next 12 months (under current liabilities). Some analysts have reiterated that Armada needs to sell its OMS assets to pay this sum. In my view, selling the OMS assets is only a supplementary action to pay off its debts. Armada is generating RM1 billion per year after interest costs and that will be more than enough to pay RM600 million over the next 12 months.

Posted by zonefinder > 2020-10-15 16:36 | Report Abuse

Am expecting this mother to jump to 50cts with 2 consecutive +ve qtrs.

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-15 17:15 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. white. unchanged. Wait Nov QR.

Posted by itch > 2020-10-15 20:25 | Report Abuse

Good analysis Jojobaa.

If we are patient, we will be richly rewarded.

Posted by TAK1 > 2020-10-16 04:11 | Report Abuse

They have been trying to sell oms for the past 2 years without success with annual maintanance cost scrapyard waiting

Posted by Jojobaa > 2020-10-16 09:15 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr TAK1, for the past 2 years, if you read the annual report, they have disposed off close to 20 OMS vessels, and now they have only circa 35 vessels remaining.

Again, if you read the financial statements, you would have also seen that the OMS division is EBITDA positive, meaning segment results still exceed depreciation charges, so I guess if you look at it objectively, you can bash the OMS for its poor performance. From my point of view, Armada is progressing well IN SPITE OF the annual maintenance cost scrapyard waiting whatever that you just said.

Posted by Upupshare > 2020-10-16 10:11 | Report Abuse

Jojobaa, the story is different now for 2020 2nd half til 2021. Since MCO there were zero new contract from Petronas and oil majors in Malaysia...lets see how bad the result...

Posted by Jojobaa > 2020-10-16 10:19 | Report Abuse

Upupshare, Armada's FPSO clients are Eni, Husky, Oil and Gas National Oil Company, Enquest, and Hong Loang Joint Operating Co. They have 0 FPSOs with Petronas, sir.

Posted by Jojobaa > 2020-10-16 10:25 | Report Abuse

By the way Armada C7 got extended, for another 8 years firm period, so don't quite understand what you mean there were zero new contracts from Petronas and oil majors in Malaysia. None of Armada's FPSO operates in Malaysia.

Posted by strattegist > 2020-10-16 10:58 | Report Abuse

kejung...sejuk beku

Posted by AnaiAnai > 2020-10-16 11:04 | Report Abuse

uhuk uhuk. cerita so much also tak jalan. Only QR with another 100mil profit then it will be different story. Stay tune. wait for the outcome in nov.