Posted by Bon888 > 2021-11-19 23:51 | Report Abuse

Sweet and Sour siakap fish for today dinner.

Sweet because Armada delivered another round of excellence results. Congratulations to Armada.

Sour because Brent oil price tank below USD 80 now.

Anyway still a good dinner.

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2021-11-20 04:54 | Report Abuse

I believed oil might drop up to usd 70 due to rising
covid cases in China/Europe and SPR releasing worried.

Posted by MM78 > 2021-11-20 05:46 | Report Abuse

Armada profitability through its long term contracts with its customers are less directly and immediately affected by oil price fluctuations . Its operational profitability is determined by its FPSO availability and OMS utilisation rates. Its net cash flows generated from its operating activities are strong and is more than its profitability, hence it reflects the real true value its share valuations. To me the impairments are fast forwarding it’s PPE depreciations to meet accounting standards . It means faster profitability in coming years . Once’s its negative reserves are eliminated in FY 23 (?) at its current rate of quarterly profitability , we can expect some dividend in perhaps . Share traders likely can’t wait and won’t like waiting that long . For value investors, a P/E of around 5 with steadying track record of improvements Armada share price seems cheap. Its ROE around 20 of late is getting attractive too.

These are my personal assessment of its values and humble opinion just for sharing. You may think otherwise and invest or divest at your own discretions.

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2021-11-20 09:30 | Report Abuse

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30 Sep 2021
Bumi Armada

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3210656

Quarter : 3 Qtr
Quarterly report for the financial period ended : 30 Sep 2021

Revenue: 545,703,000
Profit/(loss) for the period : 161,521,000
Basic earnings/(loss)
per share (Subunit) : 2.60
Net assets per share(NTA): 0.64
Date Announced: 19 Nov 2021

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2021-11-20 09:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-11-20 09:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by louisongong > 2021-11-20 12:14 | Report Abuse

well said

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-11-20 13:39 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MM78 > 2021-11-20 13:40 | Report Abuse

@i3lurker "Global oil price is a risk factor alpha for Armada.

at low oil prices, rentals can be terminated just like Woodside. For companies with huge fixed costs it means bankruptcy immediately.

at high oil prices, lessors treat Armada like gold. Zero risks of rental terminations.

How hedge funds aka sharks view Armada is purely oil prices and nothing else.

Schoolboys already know its fixed rentals, no need to mention and not worth saying.

People are more concerned with risks of Armada bankruptcy resulting from low oil prices.
20/11/2021 9:42 AM"


When I wrote " Armada profitability through its long term contracts with its customers are less directly and immediately affected by oil price fluctuations ."
It means short term oil price fluctuations within certain magnitude .

Any sensible investor can use own common sense to judge if the magnitude of the oil price fluctuations and its durations are big enough to be a real threat to Armada business model.

"Less directly and immediately affected by oil " means exactly that. Armada profitability is less immediately and less affected by oil price fluctuations than to Hibiscus for example.

Any business would face the risks of eventual termination of contracts if customers are loosing money for long time.

When oil price price dropped to very low in April last year, not many Armada customers terminate FPSO contracts. One Woodside contract termination may not represent the real inherent risks of its business model. All business face some risks though.

It is simple enough to understand, I trust for any common sense investor. ( Perhaps for any investor above school children level, but I am not saying this just to get even for jeering purpose )

Talking about Armada facing bankrupt risk now ? It is already 7 quarters too late when its debt to equity ratio has dropped from 3.27 in Q1 2020 to 1.96 in Q3 2021. The last two years of operating cash flow / operating profit for Armada are 1.5 and 1.59 are already very reassuring.

Still want to play safe ? Divest to EPF savings and sleep well.
20/11/2021 1:35 PM

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-11-20 13:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2021-11-20 14:01 | Report Abuse

Posted by i3lurker > Nov 19, 2021 8:00 PM | Report Abuse
WTI will average USD72 for 2022

Thanks i3lurker,
So Armada should also be very good for 2022.

Posted by sparrow > 2021-11-20 14:51 | Report Abuse

Agree, if next year oil price average around 72usd then it’s very good for armada. Even oil price dive below 20USD temporary last year did not impact armada profitability, unless oil stays at 30 USD for few years then we might see negative impact on armada.

Posted by ming > 2021-11-20 15:02 | Report Abuse

Oil price at 70 or 80, business as usual !

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-11-20 15:07 | Report Abuse

haha sslee

I think you are qualified to issue buy calls

no need to wait for my Armada buy calls anymore

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-11-20 15:21 | Report Abuse

haha sslee

I quite agree with you that the support line has moved up from 40 to 45/46

thats why share market is very challenging coz everyday is a new day. Staying still or being set in old ways and methods playing shares is a sure way to die.

Posted by Mabel > 2021-11-20 16:00 | Report Abuse

Yes Business as usual.. This may affect the upstream business..

Less likely for downstream business..

For the midstream, Mabel went for Armada and Yinson.. As an example, Armada profitability is through its long term contracts with its customers are less directly and immediately affected by oil price fluctuations . Its operational profitability is determined by its FPSO availability and OMS utilisation rates...

All FPSO Contracts are bankable..

It's business as usual..

Meow

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2021-11-20 20:14 | Report Abuse

2019 average oil price usd 65, Armada survived well. 2020 - usd 42, disaster not only for Armada but almost to all O&G upstream as covid pandemic strike the world. 2021 and currently - usd 70 (YTD). USA, INDIA, CHINA, JAPAN & its allies now in fears of inflation if let the brent to rise above usd 80. This countries now working hard to bring down the crude oil price. Opec next meeting maybe on 2 Dec discussing on output increase. Definitely Armada will strive better but the market sentiment will give volatility. Go go Armada...

Posted by MM78 > 2021-11-21 19:43 | Report Abuse

Oil supply now cant cope with the demands not only because of the world recovers from Covid 19 lately but also due to low level of investments in new oil field developments for years. To meet environmental protection requirements , many power plants are also shifting to oil and gas mode instead of coals. Many USA Shale oil industry players have stopped operations in the last few years when oil price went below $60 /barrel . Bidon's policy is also not in favor of encouraging shale oil production due to environmental concerns.

In short, oil prices would remain high for sometime unless world economic situations are down due to resurging Covid 19 in western countries again.

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2021-11-21 21:07 | Report Abuse

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-on-a-4-week-losing-streak-815800

Posted by KoiFish > 2021-11-22 09:22 | Report Abuse

Time to collect

Posted by strattegist > 2021-11-22 09:46 | Report Abuse

soft

Posted by 188investor > 2021-11-22 11:16 | Report Abuse

Biden Asks The World For Help Easing The Global Energy Crisis

Posted by strattegist > 2021-11-22 11:37 | Report Abuse

red

Posted by strattegist > 2021-11-22 17:28 | Report Abuse

closed red

Posted by Mabel > 2021-11-22 21:06 | Report Abuse

9M21 core earnings made up 75%/ 87% of ours/ consensus FY estimates respectively, on the back of a sequentially softer 3Q21, mainly due to lower FPSO profits. Overall, its turnaround story is beginning to gain traction. Improving cashflows and monetizing non-core assets are its key KPIs. It will continue to de-gear, seek redeployment opportunities (FPSO Claire) and deliver FPSO Kakinada by 1H22. Our TP is SOP-based.

Share Price: MYR0.49

Target Price: MYR0.58

Recommendation: Buy

Maybank

Posted by Mabel > 2021-11-22 21:08 | Report Abuse

FPSO ops setback in 3Q21

Core net profit of MYR152m (-33% QoQ; +84% YoY) in 3Q21 took 9M21 core earnings to MYR529m (+91% YoY), on track to meet our estimate but above consensus’. The QoQ weakness was largely due to lower contributions (-4% EBIT) from its FPSO ops, on lower utilisation. FPSO
Kraken suffered ‘unplanned shutdowns’ on one of the 2 trains while FPSO Olombendo had a ‘scheduled shutdown’ for tie-in of new wells and outstanding modification works. JV FPSO Sterling III had a full crew change out in Jul due to Covid-19 challenges. This was partially offset by lower LBIT at its OMS ops (-72%). It sold 4 OSVs in 3Q21, reducing its fleet size to 10 units in 3Q21

Posted by Mabel > 2021-11-22 21:08 | Report Abuse

De-gearing sustainably

Our estimates are unchanged. Its strategy to constantly generate positive FCFs while keeping opex in check is showing encouraging progress. This is reflected on its net debt/ net gearing/ net debt-to-EBITDA ratios, which have fallen from MYR7.4b/ 2.1x/ 5.1x in 2020 to MYR6.5b/ 1.7x/ 4.2x
respectively as at Sep 2021.

Posted by Mabel > 2021-11-22 21:11 | Report Abuse

Key targets: Improve EBITDA, reduce debts

Improving cashflows and monetizing non-core assets remains its key KPIs.

Constant EBITDA improvement, via:

(i) higher operating efficiencies and cost optimisation exercises; via higher utilisation and charter extensions on existing assets),
(ii) complete disposal of its remaining OSV assets,
(iii) delivery of the FPSO Kakinada project on schedule by Jun 2022 and
(iv) re-activation of the idle FPSO Claire, would greatly lower its net debt/ EBITDA and greatly aid its cause.

To RM 0.58 with Loves...

Meow

Posted by strattegist > 2021-11-23 09:27 | Report Abuse

soft

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2021-11-23 12:36 | Report Abuse

Unlikely 58c looking @ trend, maybe 44/45c possible...adoi!!

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2021-11-23 14:52 | Report Abuse

Oil price war in between Opec+ and USA/China. Not good currently. Just caution.

Posted by strattegist > 2021-11-23 18:01 | Report Abuse

closed red

Posted by RCZ2020 > 2021-11-23 18:16 | Report Abuse

QR good but cannot touch 0.50 also

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-11-23 20:52 | Report Abuse

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-announces-coordinated-oil-release-120427141.html


Ari Natter, Jennifer Jacobs and Jennifer A. Dlouhy
Tue, November 23, 2021, 8:22 PM
(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will release 50 million barrels of crude from its strategic reserves in concert with China, Japan, India and South Korea and the U.K -- an unprecedented, coordinated attempt by the world’s largest oil consumers to tame prices that could prompt a backlash by OPEC

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2021-11-23 21:18 | Report Abuse

0.40 mari adoi!!

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-11-23 22:56 | Report Abuse

the idea behind the idea behind the idea is to cut off Saudi Arabia's customers.

Next step is OPEC will refuse to supply Asian customers.

Next next step is US Shale will do a super production.

US Shale will takeover Saudi Arabia customers.

Yawn!!! still a brilliant idea

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-11-23 23:05 | Report Abuse

Once Asian customers get used to very regular guaranteed deliveries of crude from US Shale, they will never ever buy from Saudi Arabia anymore.

besides US Shale oil is fantastic quality and costs much much less to refine.

Saudi Arabia is doomed for fooking its own Asian customers

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2021-11-24 04:49 | Report Abuse

bizzybone Macgyver11, if you're so scared, don't play stocks la. Go play ping pong.

I'm not worry. I will collect more if price drop 40..lol
Kikiki. I can play ping pong also.

Posted by JoshuaMS7 > 2021-11-24 11:08 | Report Abuse

What wrong? Oil up it down?

Posted by winmal > 2021-11-24 12:10 | Report Abuse

just take profit ... see you next q. report

Posted by strattegist > 2021-11-24 13:51 | Report Abuse

weak

Posted by ken2004 > 2021-11-24 14:27 | Report Abuse

Lol why everytime IB come out good target price, price will drop.....

Posted by JoshuaMS7 > 2021-11-24 15:29 | Report Abuse

Another uzma is making..

Posted by vcinvestor > 2021-11-24 15:30 | Report Abuse

another uzma is making what?

Posted by nikicheong > 2021-11-24 15:40 | Report Abuse

Quite funny, solid profits and yet price dropping.

Maybe because Q4 2021 might see softer earnings, as two FPSO have minor troubles (Kraken and TGT).

Posted by JoshuaMS7 > 2021-11-24 16:09 | Report Abuse

Moreover oil price breaking 82 usd now, also drop, no sense

Posted by strattegist > 2021-11-24 17:27 | Report Abuse

closed red

Posted by Ledangking > 2021-11-24 17:45 | Report Abuse

I think market anticipated Federal Will increase interest. Company like armada who has big debts will get impacted. Must be foreign fund start to dump Armada. My two cents.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2021-11-24 19:20 | Report Abuse

Sukuk

Posted by James Ng > 2021-11-24 20:17 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/2021-11-24-story-h1594641851.jsp
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