OUTLOOK FOR 2023 Notwithstanding the current uncertain times for the global economy, health and safety remain a key focus area for us. We will continue to drive the performance of our existing fleet whilst progressing ongoing projects. Moving forward, our sustainability strategies, which include gas as a transitional energy source, will drive new infrastructure projects. We will also evaluate carbon capture injection and storage projects. This will accelerate our transition towards Net Zero carbon emission by 2050. Whilst ongoing debt reduction and the strengthening of our balance sheet enable us to explore new projects, we will continue to be financially disciplined and will only pursue opportunities which are mutually beneficial to us and our clients.
On 28 February 2023, the Company entered into a sale and purchase agreement for the disposal of its interest in SPBAOPL to Shapoorji Pallonji Energy Private Limited (“SPEPL”) (formerly known as Shapoorji Pallonji Oil and Gas Private Limited). The sale transaction was completed on 2 March 2023.
As a result, the Group and the Company’s investment in SPBAOPL has been reclassified to non-current asset held-for-sale as at 31 December 2022 as disclosed in Note 27.
The current PE is around 5, while Yinson is 15x, or FPE 10x... with O&G recovering and speedy improvement of debt profile, Armada should be valued higher
It is buying time for me. I put a bid online for 0.66 sens this morning and just got an email stating that I purchased some for 0.65. I do not even know how this is possible. I thought they matched offer and bid. Anyway, a small trade position for a short term profit knowing that BA appreciates a few days after good news. Assuming oil bounces back.
@Robert since the opening price was RM0.65, all opening bids above RM0.65 were filled at RM0.65. You can use this method to "jump the queue", as the higher bids will get higher priority to be filled at the opening price.
It will work the other way round too...you could place a sell order at RM0.64 but it would've been filled at RM0.65 (with a higher priority).
Now that the Armada Claire chapter has been closed, we need further catalysts to drive the growth in the company and consequently, an appreciation in the share price.
First oil at the Armada Sterling V FPSO should be imminent, but there are lots of question marks here and a further delay cannot be discounted.
The award of the Cameia FPSO seemed like a done deal 6 months ago, now here too there are lots of question marks and the project might not even be sanctioned.
The Mumbai Port FSRU project seems to have fallen by the wayside, my research shows that the project has been put on the back burner by Mumbai Port as it no longer made economic sense.
So this now begs the question...the company is in remarkable financial health. We're ready to take on one large scale and one small/medium scale project on our own. But where are the contracts? The FPSO market is incredibly tight, so it is indeed worrisome that Bumi Armada has not been able to make much headway.
Lots of talk about gas solutions and carbon capture/storage in the annual report, but all that's just talk.
This year is going to be an incredibly crucial year - Bumi Armada has got to beef up the orderbook, else this is going to be a company slowly bleeding to death. The company is currently sustaining itself on two major FPSO - Kraken in the UK and Olombendo in Angola. The firm period for the former ends in 2025, for the latter in 2030. Time is ticking.
Why has the revenue decreased so drastically in 2022? I've tried to research what the issue is, seems like there was no charter revenue for more than half a year.
It makes sense that there is a decreasing trend in revenue due to how revenue is recognised during the contract period, but the sharp drop in 2022 (coupled with more favourable FX rate) seems amiss.
Niki. Why armada want to rush for contact especially fpso. Slow is good for this transition period. May secured many projects like yinson and back by billions of debts. All these projects required strong cash flow from their charters. Oil is not gold capitalixe the trend good for long term. Fpso is long term contract. Its better to prudent now than later. Yinson majority fpso orders. Good or bad if up to investor but to me is rather risky. Looking at their interest p.a. this is the 1st time armada officially shared their green stratergy
For a FPSO company to have only secured one new FPSO project since 2014 and that too only via a 30% stake in an associate, is rather disappointing, no matter which way you slice and dice it.
Operationally, they've straightened all the issues with problems at Kraken. Financially, they've gotten the debt situation in order.
So now, we really need new contract awards to sustain the company.
Yes Yinson may be biting more than they can chew, they've 4 to 5 FPSOs they're working on simultaneously. No one's asking to go crazy like them.
Now that all loss making parts of the company have been stripped out, we cannot increase profits any further. This year might be the best, at around rm220m/quarter...but going forward it'd only dwindle without any orderbook replenishment. Big drop in 2025 then another big drop in 2030.
I believe the new fspo must be electric support and carbon capture so it will take more time to finalize the deal to meet the requirement. Be selective is good just be patient
Thanks Niki for the explanation about queue jumping and getting better deal than asked due to the opening price. I have not experienced it in the past, as the broker was doing the orders for me (at RHB), but now with a discount broker I have that bonus available.
Since I have now some time between contracts having finished an FPSO in Korea, I will put extra diligence into this counter and similar ones. Seems like there are a few opportunities for us. I had Yinson for 10 years, so longer experience in this investment area than most. From all I know, it is NOT the time to sell Armada yet.
Gabriel, I started to read BA annual report. First 40 pages are about ESG. I was a bit worried that they may not priotized performance, but I realize that ESG is good for rating as investor's bank feature it prominently, so be it. Not going to complain about it at annual meeting. :-)
My opinion Armada should stop the conventional business model build and lease the FPSO. This business model is too risky for the company. Lesson learnt from Armada Claire, no one want the FPSO with contract termination history. One terminated contract could send the company into bankruptcy.
Armada should focus on JV model or EPCC with lower risk but of course with lower return.
Whatever model they use: lease, JV, EPCC, etc., they better have somethings as it has been long since last project. I am NOT for having a big order book as the inflation, scarcity of supply will likely bring prices up. But there should be some deals or better prospects. One important item for us, investors, is that it takes many years to sign the deals, deliver, operate and have contract renewed or terminated. We will likely move on to new opportunities and let others take the risk. I will be out for sure when P/E is 10+.
Likely no issue with Enquest, beginning May 2025 they will only pay 1/3rd rate so on a cost basis to Bumi Armada as the firm charter ends. As such, it will be even more attractive to keep leasing the FPSO (as long as they're producing a decent amount of oil, which does seem to be the case).
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2022 results:
EPS: RM0.12 (up from RM0.11 in FY 2021). Revenue: RM2.41b (up 11% from FY 2021). Net income: RM732.4m (up 11% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 30% (in line with FY 2021).
Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.9%.
Revenue is expected to decline by 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Energy Services industry in Malaysia are expected to grow by 1.2%.
Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 77% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 60% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth.
In term of revenue and profit, Armada has exceeded Dialog. I believe the top financial performancer in Malaysia Oil and Gas industry beside Petronas subsidiaries.
But the risk involve in order book must be taken in. Revenue will start slow down after 2025 if no new order come in. Share price is forward looking. It won’t go any high as 2025 is approaching. Unless dividend start to declare.
AI content for Armada (I think, as it is so plain) A bit overconfident as estimate is usually not precise. Maybe +/- 20% So, how you miss it by 1.9% ? But this AI catches one thing. Revenues will decrease. My point is that new project is really needed. I noticed that workforce decreased from 2k to 900. Not a good sign long term. Cannot downsize perpetually. --- Full year 2022 BAB earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.9%. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Energy Services industry in Malaysia are expected to grow by 1.2%.
Great news about this Dorado FPSO project in West Australia. Remember that there is also Tuna opportunity in Asia (Indonesia). So it is not only Total Cameia, but a few other options as well.
Cameia is not a done deal man....quit spreading misinformation. TotalEnergies has been considering other possibilities for a few months now. Bumi Armada still has a chance, but no longer guaranteed to land the contract.
"Multiple sources told Upstream the negotiations to finalise the FPSO contract are far from settled due to issues around capital costs and access to financing."
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Gabriel Khoo
1,035 posts
Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-04-26 16:41 | Report Abuse
From AR 2022