Yes, awaiting news and a small rally. I made 11 points that I expect to be achieved building up on Nick's catalysts. Once 7 of them is achieved, I diversify most. So far we only have 2: 1. Armada Claire Sale 2. OSV Disinvestment
7 more to go. _____________________________________________________________________________________ Here is NIck's list provided here, without his permission. But good to change the tone here: BAB Aims
Potential Bumi Armada Re-rating catalysts:
New wins:
1) Award of Cameia FPSO project in Angola from Total Energies - This is only an EPCC contract that will sustain earnings for 2-3 years. This is NOT a long-term charter contract. However; it could be valued up to 1 bln myr.
2) 1 Major FPSO contract win (large scale FPSO, likely with a JV partner) - Unlikely to happen soon as there are no known large scale bids from Bumi Armada, but possibilities exist in West Africa / South America with market rather tight in terms of supply as many suppliers are overextended.
3) 1 Minor FPSO contract win (either a small/medium scale FPSO, 100% owned) - Active bids in Tuna field (Indonesia) and Palok field (Mexico).
4) Non-FPSO contract win (either 100% owned or JV) - e.g. FSRU, FSU, FSO - The Mumbai Port FSRU project has been deferred. No other publicly known bids for now.
5) New contract win for the 2 SC vessels in the Caspian Sea and 1 JV-owned SC vessel in Indonesia. Potential for new wins for the Caspian Sea vessels is high as flurry of work in the region exists due to high oil price environment. All 3 vessels as of 31 Dec 2022 are laid up.
Green energy goals (leading to ESP score upgrades and rerating up to 6% by IB): 1) "Green energy" initiatives for future FPSO/non-FPSO wins (e.g. zero flaring or fully electrified FPSO) 2) Decarbonisation for existing fleet of FPSO 3) Diversification into floating CCS and other "green" structures
Business as usual objecties: 1) First oil achievement and then full acceptance of Armada Sterling V FPSO by ONGC at the 98/2 field in India 2) Confirmation of sale or scrapping of Armada Claire FPSO 3) Full divestment of the remaining offshore vessel
Contract extensions: 1) Positive development at the Kraken field, such as drilling of the Kraken Western flank or tieback to the nearby Bressay and Bentley fields - This would signal long-term contract extension for Armada Kraken FPSO which is due to expire in Q3 2025. For now, Enquest has indefinitely deferred drilling due to commence in 2023 because of the newly introduced windfall tax in the UK. 2) Confirmation of contract extension for Armada TGT FPSO in Vietnam - Might only be announced in Q4 2024, but it's all but certain the contract will be extended as new wells are still being pursued in the aged TGT field. 3) Contract extension of Armada Sterling II (due in Q4 2024).
Weekly oil inventories rose sharply this week, by around 5 million barrels, while economists were expecting a decline of 1.3 million barrels. However, this data has not prevented crude oil prices from rising by around 3% over the last five sessions. The reason for this is that traders are looking to the future, which is more likely to see a price recovery for two main reasons. Firstly, the US Department of Energy has announced the purchase of crude oil to start filling its strategic reserves. We are talking about 3 million barrels at the moment, which is relatively small, but the information is clear: the United States is starting to rebuild its strategic reserves, which, let's not forget, have melted like snow in the sun since last year. Secondly, the International Energy Agency has raised its demand growth forecast for 2023 and thus foresees a tighter market in the second half of the year. In this context, oil prices have recovered, with Brent crude at USD 76 per barrel and WTI at USD 72. In European natural gas, the Dutch benchmark, the Rotterdam TTF, is trading at EUR 30/MWh, a level not seen since November 2021.
If really kena cheat in public forum like this, it is part of learning to gain investment experience. I also fail many times after reading comment and believe end up lose money. But we need to learn. Always verify what people say.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Jerichomy
4,346 posts
Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-05-14 13:40 | Report Abuse
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