Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-08 10:42 | Report Abuse

LM, short info,

Shut in means that the wells are closed.
Shut down means that the toposide FPSO systems are not in operation.

During shut ins all the topside systems can still operate in some minimum mode by recirculating the hydrocarbons. That way, re - introducing hydrocarbons is easy.

Hot start up is when you restart equipment right after the trip, with all systems still under pressure and temperature. Cold start up is from scratch, usually after maintenance. Those terms are NO LONGER used as cold LNG complicates things.

There are 2 possible scenarios now:
1. They may have isolated one train, still operating in recirculation on train B for quick re-start after trip.
2. They did full plant wide shutdown for the ease of maintenance. Then you can do group isolation and service all equipment without worry about hydrocarbons kit by kit. So they could do a lot of maintenance during full shut down However, for that you may need full specialized crew of dozens of people and a lot of planning is required.

Hope not too much info.

Posted by myongcc5 > 2023-06-08 10:54 | Report Abuse

Tqvm Robert

Posted by LubeTrader > 2023-06-08 11:21 | Report Abuse

Of all the comments I've read so far since the news broke, Robert's the most informative.

Posted by LubeTrader > 2023-06-08 11:22 | Report Abuse

So Robert based on your experience is the IB analysts estimate of 3 to 6 months downtime reasonable?

Posted by limitup4u > 2023-06-08 11:35 | Report Abuse

the selling pressure has subside compare to last 2 days.

Posted by MM78 > 2023-06-08 12:02 | Report Abuse

Robert, thanks for your good information sharing and I find it succinct enough but not too complicated for me so far.

Posted by ageetkumar > 2023-06-08 12:04 | Report Abuse

Some speculation based on what information is available so far from public sources which talked about the outage of a transformer for a hydraulic submersible pump. I am not familiar with Kraken design, but based on what I know there can be two possibilities. Hydraulic submersible pumps used for offloading is one. In this case the production can continue until tank top which will happen in a matter of a couple of weeks after the outage depending on the production rate. Another possibility is well submersible pumps which are typically electric but could be hydraulic as well, in which case the hydraulic pressurisation unit with accumulators will located on the FPSO and hydraulic lines are through an umblical to the subsea tree. If transformer for the hydraulic system is damaged then the entire production shuts down, of course we can keep the FPSO production system on a warm standby through recirculation. But if you are doing any maintenance it will be shut down for safety reasons. In any case offshore replacement of a transformer is a head ache even if you can find one on short notice. (typically these are custom made and have long lead times of a few months depending on size). So an outage of a 2 - 3 months looks possible and reasonable

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-08 12:17 | Report Abuse

Based on my experience and a lot of reading around I believe that:
1. There is NO Shutdown of facility. Only shut in. That is per BAB anouncement. They cannot do much maintenance without advance time notification of so called turnaround contractors (TAR). This unplanned maintenance job is sugarcoating and PR thing. In the end they have no spares, crews, plans, etc.
2. They have 2 other healthy transformers used for VSD (variable speed drives). They can be used for the HSP pumps for introduction of hydrocarbons from wells. Will not be full production to be safe for a while.
3. Transformers that failed are being repaired. Parts or spare transformers are under way from Esberg, Denmark. This is by marine traffic systems. Transformer is a simple and common equipment, and you can use similar if needed in reduced mode. They can risk manage it. Like smaller transformer but more protection, etc. There is a process of Risk Assessment, can be done in 2-3 days.

My bet is that it will be over within a month. Production decreased. Impact on earnings minmal. Cost also minimal. Transformer is in 100k 's of dollar. They can even get used. Most damage is due to lost confidence and bad info management. Financig cost may go up, clients may be concerned. Reputation lost is worth dollars.

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-08 12:23 | Report Abuse

Thanks Robert and Ageetkumar for the explicit yet easy to understand narrative. Thank you

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-08 12:35 | Report Abuse

Kumar, I thought initially these were pumps for moving liquid in tanks, but that would be shutdown. As they say, SHUT IN, we have situation with downhole pumps which are in the wells. Shut in is for wells. Now, EnQuest is involved as I believe they own these pumps.
Only last year I worked with HSP pumps inside the tanks for export, stripping, maintenance and transfer I realized they were simple as no motor. I thought initially they were broke in our debacle. They can be easily changed. FPSO has a spare on board. Nobody would report it.
Now I realize it is NOT the case. Downhole pump situation makes it more difficult. But it is just transformer, not the pump.

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-08 13:30 | Report Abuse

Unplanned downtime is somewhat mitigated with planned or scheduled maintenance. Hope both downtimes contra off each other and brings the business impact to minimum. My hunge is BA will make an announcement real soon today or tomorrow judging from the market recovery mode

Posted by sense maker > 2023-06-08 13:51 | Report Abuse

It’s a matter of weeks.

Posted by LubeTrader > 2023-06-08 14:18 | Report Abuse

Glad to see these constructive and healthy inputs. Finally see some degree of sanity in this forum. What we need is a clear roadmap to recovery. Learn from mistakes and have contingencies.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-08 14:31 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by drsoo1 > 2023-06-08 14:32 | Report Abuse

I am not surprise break down such as this happen...that's the price you pay when you always go for the cheapest price equipment and systems.

Posted by drsoo1 > 2023-06-08 14:37 | Report Abuse

So I doubt they learn from mistakes or invest in contingencies...maximize profitability is what they will go for. Expect more of this kind of costly breakdown or worst blow-up especially from the bottom end players in the industry.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-08 14:38 | Report Abuse

Is true that unplanned maintenance just a PR sugarcoating. Parts and contractors arrangement required some lead time. Major maintenance at offshore facility required a lot of planning and coordination.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-08 14:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-06-08 14:53 | Report Abuse

Bumi mgt needs to shed more light on this matter in order to restore confidence as soon as possible.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-08 14:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by drsoo1 > 2023-06-08 14:55 | Report Abuse

During the oil price slump couple of years back...many could have opted the "burndown" design philosophy in their brown field upgrades or new plant. Probably with minimal or no insurance coverage?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-08 14:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-06-08 15:01 | Report Abuse

The current shut-in and future reduced level of production, means that BBC revenue earned by AKPL will be reduced. Given the current uncertainties, the financial impact of this incident cannot be reliably estimated at this point, but is expected to be material for Bumi Armada.

Materials mean more than 10% of the profit...

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-06-08 15:03 | Report Abuse

share price drops more than 30%...Mgt needs to shed more light as soon as possible...

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-08 15:35 | Report Abuse

Look like price stable as for now. Rebound won’t be a lot, but if falling, lot more to go.

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2023-06-08 15:49 | Report Abuse

If no insurance policies taken to cover all the potential risks.. SC and BURSA must censor even impose maximum penalty on Armada management for its abject failure in risks management

Posted by ageetkumar > 2023-06-08 16:02 | Report Abuse

Thanks @Robert Waters for clarifying that they are talking about the downhole pump. Just curious, do you by any chance know what type of transformer it is? Is it Oil filled or dry type? Dry types are a lot more difficult to find readily, I think

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-06-08 16:41 | Report Abuse

ha3 laugh me die la

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-08 16:50 | Report Abuse

No idea what type of transformer. Such info not available in public domain. I read somewhere it was oil filled, but in a comment, not document. No matter what type, it can be procured. Yes, the vendor will tell you that there is a queue of 6 months. But if you ask him to call warehouses, brokers, partners, colleagues to find you one, he will. Worked for me. Sure you have to offer him something. Like ensure his previous outstanding bill is paid, or that he sends 3 people to your site with the kit for 1 week to install it. This will be done by phone, so that there is no email trail of sensitive issues :-) when you say, buddly, I really need this kit, help me out .... and he will.
I am now very diligently trying to get info about restarting, and hope it goes ahead. But I need to stop it. I am NOT being paid for work on this project. It is just investment for me. I want to get out of it.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-06-08 16:55 | Report Abuse

Those want to sell already sold, hopefully the worst is over for this stock.
Hope the share price can cross 200-day sma again at 0.52 soon.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-08 16:58 | Report Abuse

According to Enquest, it looks like the production will resume by the end of this week (single train operation at 50% capacity), before ramping up to full production in the coming weeks.

Also, it appears Bumi Armada does not need to pay Enquest any compensation, they merely lose out on the day charter of $450,000 (approx. RM2.0mil).

Hence, each day this drags longer, Bumi Armada will be losing RM2mil, and once production gets to 50%, they will be losing RM1mil a day. As such, the situation is deemed material for Bumi Armada but not Enquest.

If true, this is not as bad as it first sounded like.

Posted by Russel > 2023-06-08 17:03 | Report Abuse

Hope for a favourable announcement from Armada and those buy on dip laughing to the bank

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-08 18:31 | Report Abuse

Interesting post from EnQuest chat:

Our plan is still to restart the Kraken FPSO towards the end of this week, initially on a phased basis, then working up to full production over the coming weeks

I can’t comment on analyst reports following Bumi’s announcement but I can say that we would have already alerted the market of such an issue if we believed there was a reasonable expectation that our production guidance would be materially affected by this shut-in. As things stand, we are losing c.40 Boepd from our annualised production figure for each day that Kraken is fully shut-in. This figure is mitigated in part as we execute planned Q3 maintenance during this period of shut-in

The root cause analysis is ongoing on the transformer failures, with investigations focused on the units themselves and the atmospheric conditions within the electrical room/housing

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-08 18:46 | Report Abuse

Yeah underwater channels for news but let's hear it from BA herself today or by tomorrow Judging from the share price movements today, it's going be optimistic. Fingers crossed 🤞

Posted by ITreeinvestor > 2023-06-08 19:24 | Report Abuse

Do not forget EnQuest chat actually is just another public forum like i3investor.

Posted by sense maker > 2023-06-08 19:27 | Report Abuse

BA can only make the next announcement when production has been restarted on phased basis. It won’t be so soon. Take the current depressed price to accumulate, average down, if you are confident this issue will not prolong beyond 2-3 months. Price will not recover beyond 55 even after production restart as market is gonna price in possible recurrence of similarly serious production outage in future. Confidence will come back but only slowly and in 6 months, we should see the share price touch 60 sens again, assuming no prolongation of this issue beyond 2-3 months.

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-08 19:36 | Report Abuse

Worth the wait if 6 months ke or 12 months. Where can you find such handsome return in that short span. Haha. Buy and Hold.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-08 21:02 | Report Abuse

Laugh die my this old uncle I3licker talking cxck here. Talking without facts just blowing water.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-08 21:03 | Report Abuse

Uncle when the price back to 0.60 I will be the first one who slap your face.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-08 21:05 | Report Abuse

26% discount not dare to buy.. no balls and no money. These are I3licker biggest problem.

Posted by icecool > 2023-06-08 21:19 | Report Abuse

tomorrow drop ?

Posted by Vicky > 2023-06-08 22:04 | Report Abuse

Surely drop. Market do not like uncertainties !

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-08 22:09 | Report Abuse

When price reach 0.60 I already laughing all the way to the bank.. Mana you sekolah old man I3licker.

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-08 22:18 | Report Abuse

Wow, 60cents, "jiak buih liao" makan x habis. 55-56 cents already kenyang mau vomit. It will come one day when All dust settled and that is for sure.

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-08 22:25 | Report Abuse

Sudah beli punya mau up up and away. Belum beli punya hari hari curse bila mau explode, bila mau sure drop, mau LD. Tak mau beli punya because kena hit "Kaw Kaw" last time so sikalang mau "Breakups Revenge" like divorce couples. Haha, perfect analogy of human behaviors.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-08 22:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Vincent8864 > 2023-06-08 23:07 | Report Abuse

The EnQuest didn't make any announcement (RNS) on potential production target change due to the shut-in incident. They also listed company in UK. What is the story behind this?

The management is very confident no production forecast change is required? The Malaysia analyst writing scientific fiction story?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 00:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-09 00:17 | Report Abuse

Mickey why you posting old newspaper here? That is planned defer. Purposely slow down the future production to avoid paying more windfall tax.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-09 00:19 | Report Abuse

Mickey mouse you dare to come here? Tak malu ke? No balls to accept my challenge! Balik kampung tanam ubi lah!