Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-08 16:58 | Report Abuse

According to Enquest, it looks like the production will resume by the end of this week (single train operation at 50% capacity), before ramping up to full production in the coming weeks.

Also, it appears Bumi Armada does not need to pay Enquest any compensation, they merely lose out on the day charter of $450,000 (approx. RM2.0mil).

Hence, each day this drags longer, Bumi Armada will be losing RM2mil, and once production gets to 50%, they will be losing RM1mil a day. As such, the situation is deemed material for Bumi Armada but not Enquest.

If true, this is not as bad as it first sounded like.

Posted by Russel > 2023-06-08 17:03 | Report Abuse

Hope for a favourable announcement from Armada and those buy on dip laughing to the bank

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-08 18:31 | Report Abuse

Interesting post from EnQuest chat:

Our plan is still to restart the Kraken FPSO towards the end of this week, initially on a phased basis, then working up to full production over the coming weeks

I can’t comment on analyst reports following Bumi’s announcement but I can say that we would have already alerted the market of such an issue if we believed there was a reasonable expectation that our production guidance would be materially affected by this shut-in. As things stand, we are losing c.40 Boepd from our annualised production figure for each day that Kraken is fully shut-in. This figure is mitigated in part as we execute planned Q3 maintenance during this period of shut-in

The root cause analysis is ongoing on the transformer failures, with investigations focused on the units themselves and the atmospheric conditions within the electrical room/housing

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-08 18:46 | Report Abuse

Yeah underwater channels for news but let's hear it from BA herself today or by tomorrow Judging from the share price movements today, it's going be optimistic. Fingers crossed 🤞

Posted by ITreeinvestor > 2023-06-08 19:24 | Report Abuse

Do not forget EnQuest chat actually is just another public forum like i3investor.

Posted by sense maker > 2023-06-08 19:27 | Report Abuse

BA can only make the next announcement when production has been restarted on phased basis. It won’t be so soon. Take the current depressed price to accumulate, average down, if you are confident this issue will not prolong beyond 2-3 months. Price will not recover beyond 55 even after production restart as market is gonna price in possible recurrence of similarly serious production outage in future. Confidence will come back but only slowly and in 6 months, we should see the share price touch 60 sens again, assuming no prolongation of this issue beyond 2-3 months.

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-08 19:36 | Report Abuse

Worth the wait if 6 months ke or 12 months. Where can you find such handsome return in that short span. Haha. Buy and Hold.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-08 21:02 | Report Abuse

Laugh die my this old uncle I3licker talking cxck here. Talking without facts just blowing water.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-08 21:03 | Report Abuse

Uncle when the price back to 0.60 I will be the first one who slap your face.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-08 21:05 | Report Abuse

26% discount not dare to buy.. no balls and no money. These are I3licker biggest problem.

Posted by icecool > 2023-06-08 21:19 | Report Abuse

tomorrow drop ?

Posted by Vicky > 2023-06-08 22:04 | Report Abuse

Surely drop. Market do not like uncertainties !

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-08 22:09 | Report Abuse

When price reach 0.60 I already laughing all the way to the bank.. Mana you sekolah old man I3licker.

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-08 22:18 | Report Abuse

Wow, 60cents, "jiak buih liao" makan x habis. 55-56 cents already kenyang mau vomit. It will come one day when All dust settled and that is for sure.

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-08 22:25 | Report Abuse

Sudah beli punya mau up up and away. Belum beli punya hari hari curse bila mau explode, bila mau sure drop, mau LD. Tak mau beli punya because kena hit "Kaw Kaw" last time so sikalang mau "Breakups Revenge" like divorce couples. Haha, perfect analogy of human behaviors.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-08 22:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Vincent8864 > 2023-06-08 23:07 | Report Abuse

The EnQuest didn't make any announcement (RNS) on potential production target change due to the shut-in incident. They also listed company in UK. What is the story behind this?

The management is very confident no production forecast change is required? The Malaysia analyst writing scientific fiction story?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 00:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-09 00:17 | Report Abuse

Mickey why you posting old newspaper here? That is planned defer. Purposely slow down the future production to avoid paying more windfall tax.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-09 00:19 | Report Abuse

Mickey mouse you dare to come here? Tak malu ke? No balls to accept my challenge! Balik kampung tanam ubi lah!

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 00:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 00:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-09 00:52 | Report Abuse

Your are a rat. The dirtiest and most disgusting rat. Your characteristics also the rat`s.

No balls take my challenge please fxck off.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-09 00:55 | Report Abuse

I stopped write nonsenses posts in Armada.

Apologies to many here posting valuable information and sincere sharings.

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-09 01:17 | Report Abuse

Can someone please enlighten me ? Why is that group coming over to post negative messages after negative news ? I saw them come a few times in the past, pre covid run up was the period of their activity. Then I saw them on other forums when there was a distress situation. I have no time to read them. How they find time to post that garbage ? They usually pick up some story from google search and run with it to fill the volume, still take time.

Initially I thought they were shorts. But that is not easy to make money.

1. Are they maybe causing problems to companies so that someone will pay them to leave ?

2. Or they accumulate slowly knowing price will go up when things /they go quiet ... ?

I tend to think it is the 1. above.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 06:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 06:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 06:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 06:29 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 06:30 |

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Posted by Sslee > 2023-06-09 07:10 | Report Abuse

I3lurker is trying to be sarcastic.
The rat is trying to get attention by hanging his broken record fitnah banner repeatly every where he go.
Bob trying to be smart
And I trying to be activist investor.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 07:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by value_seeker > 2023-06-09 08:00 | Report Abuse

Nonsense by crazy person who non stop talking rubbish. Get a life and stop disturbing investors. You got zero idea on which stock to promote. I think never.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 08:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 08:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by value_seeker > 2023-06-09 08:11 | Report Abuse

Those who eat chilli feel the heat. Right Mike?

Posted by value_seeker > 2023-06-09 08:13 | Report Abuse

I could have referred to Sslee/ i3lurker/ Rober Walters or others. Why responsed?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 08:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by value_seeker > 2023-06-09 08:38 | Report Abuse

You need to eat some pyscho medicine- you ok?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-09 08:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Kakume > 2023-06-09 08:53 | Report Abuse

Talk to you friend who is working on Kraken FPSO, that is the best source of information. Until then let's dance with the up and down.

Posted by MM78 > 2023-06-09 09:13 | Report Abuse

John Chew used to talk nonsense a few years ago when Armada price was down he kept talking down Armada. He was told off many times one day Tsunami of Armada would sweep him up hanging on coconut trees. So when Armada reached 70 plus sens , we notice John Chew disappeared but emerged as Mouse on this chat again. This speaks volume of the nonsense talking John and then now Mickey Mouse. Remember when the rat is running across the streets making noise, the public would hit it hard. Just wait Armada recovers when the market Tsunami swings up again, Mickey Mouse suddenly found he is naked hanging up the tree to dry again. Meanwhile, we still buy ticket to go on board Armada for grand cruise.

Posted by MM78 > 2023-06-09 09:36 | Report Abuse

For any investor if a stock is deemed not worth investing , the person would stop investing and go somewhere else where there is money to be made instead of so busy keep posting his / her expert opinions so often how bad is the stock in questions. Although a different opinion is acceptable from time to time based on rationale explanations but not a repetitive nonsensical statements. One is either with bad motives behind these repetitive attempts to talk down a stock by spreading unfounded fears or some phycological needs for attentions, more so if the person appear in various forums doing the same. Yes, I choose to ignore such characters most of the time except annoyed the forum can be overwhelmed with rat shits all over the place.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-09 09:40 | Report Abuse

I sent Enquest an email last evening, as a prospective investor to better understand the nature of the Kraken shut-in.

This is the response I received, reproduced in full:

----------------

As you’ll note from Bumi Armada’s announcement, production at the Kraken FPSO has been shut-in since 20 May due to transformer failure, with a subsequent attempt to restart being unsuccessful. We plan to restart the plant later this week, initially on a phased basis starting with single train operations and 50% production, then working up to full production over the coming weeks.

For each day that we are fully shut-in at Kraken, our annualised production for 2023 reduces by c.40 Boepd which, given our remediation plan, is not expected to be material or impact our full year guidance. You should also note that we are executing maintenance work originally planned during two ten-day periods of single train operations in Q3 2023, and would expect there to be no further planned outage in 2023 once we have restarted.

Acknowledging that Kraken has enjoyed exceptional production uptime in recent years, it is relatively normal for North Sea assets to experience periods of unplanned outage. Accordingly, outwith our normal communication/reporting cycle, we would only tend to go to the market to advise on material events. This issue is undoubtedly material for Bumi Armada, given they have been on a zero day rate since 48 hours following the outage, but it is not expected to be material for EnQuest. Of course, should that change, we would certainly announce to the market.

In terms of compensation, Bumi are currently not being paid any day rate by EnQuest, so the saving to us is in the region of $450k per day.

Hopefully this helps clarify.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-09 09:40 | Report Abuse

You guys can email Enquest yourself, ask some questions, and they will get back to you.

Posted by vespa > 2023-06-09 09:40 | Report Abuse

capital idea

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-09 09:42 | Report Abuse

I have added more to my position this morning, my average price is now RM0.2843 for a total of 500k++ shares.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-09 09:43 | Report Abuse

My questions to Enquest:

How bad is the impact to annual guidance?
How long is the period of shut in expected?
How long before returning to full production?
Who will bear the cost of repairs?
Will we receive compensation from Bumi Armada?

Posted by sense maker > 2023-06-09 09:47 | Report Abuse

If lucky, BAB would announce next Monday morning that production has resumed on a phased basis.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-09 09:50 | Report Abuse

Disregarding the Kraken troubles, the core annual net profit for FY2022 was expected to be around RM800m - RM850m. Additional RM100m - RM120m p.a. contribution from when Armada Sterling V starts production (within July to September 2023).

Next year's net profit could easily be above RM900m (assuming Kraken returns to normal production by end of this year). At this price, it's getting it at 3x forward P/E!