There is no guarantee after the transformer is fixed other components both (mechanical and electrical) in the system would function normally. What if some of the sub-sea components like the pump won't function or cables open/short circuited or pipe leak etc?
However, I suspect the transformer failure is unlikely caused by over loading / over current situation - could be a case of the failure of the transformer dielectric oil / material due to maintenance oversight? In which case repair should be shorter than 6 months.
The shorts will have a field day and will not be only be a one day event. Better to allow the technical to stabilize before going in. Usually things are worst then is reported. Those who worked in the maintenance field will understand how reports are simplified to ease reporting. Need to figure out will Enquest demand for compensation if it will be 3-6 months of downtime. Will there be a settlement agreement of many more millions ? Risk vs reward.
How often do you get a "Black Swan" event that comes with Huge Discounts. Halo, it's not the irreversible and permanent assets damage beyond repair. The BA market cap is really really insanely low. Will keep adding into vault.
5.9 BILLION tickets in the market...even discounting the old man's holdings, it's still well over 3 billion. Easy to plunge not easy to rise with this kind of event, in this kinda half dead market.
Top 5 causes of transformer power quality problems
Loose connections — Long term vibration can loosen connections in electrical transformers. Going unchecked results in excessive buzzing and overheating.
Excessive harmonics — A higher temperature on a neutral termination may indicate the presence of harmonics. Per IEEE 519, the total harmonic distortion for voltage should be less than 5% for systems below 69 kV. The total demand distortion for current should also be less than 5% depending on the size of the source in relation to the load. Excessive harmonics on the third or fifth level often point to interference from electronic loads
Unbalance — When you compare temperatures of terminations and coils using a thermal imager, a higher temperature on one phase may indicate unbalance. When troubleshooting with a power quality analyzer, compare the current on each phase, noting that the maximum voltage on balance is generally 2%. That means the voltage on any one phase should not vary by more than 2% of the average of the three phases. The most common cause of unbalance is a change in load configuration, so quickly map out your overall equipment distribution system.
Overloading — If the temperatures are substantially higher than expected and the unit is not exposed to direct sunlight, then there’s most likely a problem with overloading and cooling. Compare kVA, voltage and current against the transformer’s nameplate. If the power consumption is greater than information listed on the nameplate, there’s likely an overload.
Cooling issues — Culprits are often cooling oil circuit blockages or failed cooling fans.
Good morning i3lurker, Can you provide me the link to CGS-CIMB report. I will write and urgent email to Amarda IR with CC to SC and Bursa to complaint is the CGS-CIMB accuracy of their information or misinformation?
CGS-CIMB Securities research estimates a similar downtime. It has included a loss of six months of BBC cash receipts, finance lease income and US$50 million (RM230 million) of repair and maintenance costs into the group’s profit and loss forecast
I added Armada this morning @ 48 sens . Thanks to those who contribute much insights on how the FPSO works and technical explanation of possible technical scenarios of the break downs. I am still convinced of the strong fundamentals of Armada and this incident is not going to sink the whole operations but part and parcel of oil and gas sector risks, one has to stomach it from time to time. Armada valuations is too low for its net operation cash flow for now at least,
I would like to draw your urgent attention to your bursa announcement and the CGS CIMB and Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) arbitrary estimate of a six-month downtime. Please rebut or confirm the IB wild/irresponsible reporting.
Dear SC and Bursa,
Please investigate are CGS CIMB and Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) arbitrary estimates of a six-month downtime bordering on wild/irresponsible reporting and violated SC rule and regulation on market manipulation?
Bumi Armada Berhad ("Bumi Armada") wishes to announce that, following a prolonged period of top quartile production and operational performance, production from the Armada Kraken FPSO ("Kraken FPSO") was recently shut-in following the failure of critical hydraulic submersible pump (HSP) transformers. The Kraken FPSO is owned by Bumi Armada’s wholly owned subsidiary, Armada Kraken Pte Ltd ("AKPL") and is deployed at the Kraken Field under a bareboat charter contract ("BBC").
AKPL, together with EnQuest (the field operator), planned and executed a restart of the facility but the attempted remediation programme was unsuccessful, and the Kraken FPSO remains shut-in.
AKPL is working with EnQuest to assess alternative technical solutions, with the aim to return to production, on a phased basis, in the coming weeks. In the meantime, key maintenance activities, originally scheduled for execution within two periods of single train operations in the third quarter of the year, are being executed during the period of shut-in. These activities are intended to negate the requirement for any further planned outages in 2023.
The current shut-in and future reduced level of production, means that BBC revenue earned by AKPL will be reduced. Given the current uncertainties, the financial impact of this incident cannot be reliably estimated at this point, but is expected to be material for Bumi Armada.
Further updates will be made from time to time when there are material developments.
CGS CIMB noted that FPSOs are typically required to achieve a minimum annual operational uptime of circa 95%, failing which the FPSO charterer does not pay the full bareboat charter contract (BBC).
“While FPSO Kraken received final acceptance from EnQuest in June 2017, Bumi Armada was paid just 70%-80% of the full BBC rate for failing to meet its uptime threshold until 1Q(20)20, when that threshold was achieved. For the past three years, the FPSO Kraken had been performing well, until the recent incident with the HSP (hydraulic submersible pump) transformer.”
Without guidance from either Bumi Armada or EnQuest, CGS CIMB has included a loss of six months of BBC cash receipts in 2H2023F, a loss of six months of finance lease income in the FY2023 profit and loss statement (P&L), and US$50 million of repair and maintenance costs borne solely by Bumi Armada and charged into its FY2023F P&L.
As such, the research firm lowered its FY2023 core net profit by 47%, implying the reduction in SOP valuation of Bumi Armada from 87 sen to 79 sen from the three adjustments above, and a lower TP of 69 sen.
Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research estimates that the Kraken FPSO has a daily charter rate of approximately USD480k/day (or USD175m/year), which accounts for some 35% of the group’s revenue contribution in FY2022.
“We are negative on this development. While we acknowledge that we do not have clarity of Kraken’s shut-in timeline yet, we decide to make an arbitrary estimate of a six-month downtime for the said FPSO,” it added.
That said, the research house trimmed its FY2023 net profit forecast by 38%, while leaving FY2024-FY2025 earnings estimates unchanged
While you guys busy squandered, added more and more at the lowest price as of now. Once in a life time chance if you missed the up cycle from beginning of the year
6) 2011 relisted..2012 to 2014 make profit..2015 to 2018 make loss ..also make impairment rm 4.4 bil in 4 years..so fishy where r the money gone ??
7) The big boss AK being sue by India government in 2014...and 2015 start Armada make losses..
8) the big boss sue by India government together with Astro ex deputy executive chairman on Maxis money flow to India 5 times more than permitted.how..india minister father n son being sued also on corruption.
9) AK investment in India Aircel rm 25.7 bil go to drain as Aircel is apply insolvency bankrupt with debt rm 11.88 bil ...Aircel had sacked 2000 employee on August'2019..Maxis is Aircel ownership of 74%..
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
drsoo1
21 posts
Posted by drsoo1 > 2023-06-07 01:31 | Report Abuse
There is no guarantee after the transformer is fixed other components both (mechanical and electrical) in the system would function normally. What if some of the sub-sea components like the pump won't function or cables open/short circuited or pipe leak etc?