Posted by GoldenShares > 2023-12-01 16:45 | Report Abuse

0.515 boleh dapat KFC ? ha ha

Posted by TimCoke > 2023-12-01 16:46 | Report Abuse

kena fried KFC

Posted by BobAxelrod33 > 2023-12-01 16:51 | Report Abuse

Have you tried Bacardi coke with fried chicken??? It's nice. Use Bacardi Carta Blanca and coke!

Posted by TimCoke > 2023-12-01 16:58 | Report Abuse

yes, this is BacardiCoke now

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-12-01 18:02 | Report Abuse

With Bumi Armada, expect the unexpected.

Posted by rohank71 > 2023-12-01 18:27 | Report Abuse

Well said, Niki. No one expected Karken failure too. Hence the reason it trades at a discount to fair values.

Posted by Blue Tulip > 2023-12-01 20:42 | Report Abuse

After Serba Dinamik is Bumi Armada?

Posted by wsheng0414 > 2023-12-02 00:13 | Report Abuse

Call warrant c83 is going to expired. Is it possible that IB press down the price for warrant???

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-12-02 23:30 | Report Abuse

I have some very bad news people. Armada Sterling V first oil has been further delayed to 15/01/2024 at the earliest. Possibilities of subsequent delays remain as they're dealing with some teething issues that might take a while to understand and resolve.

Posted by vespa > 2023-12-03 04:31 | Report Abuse

wonder when do we stop holding our noses

Posted by Justaboylearning > 2023-12-03 10:40 | Report Abuse

For me I will sell all. Evade the sunk cost fallacy

Posted by rohank71 > 2023-12-03 14:14 | Report Abuse

AS V, is a 30% associate company. BAs investment is AS V is only USD30M or 2.5 sen/share. AS V, debt of USD948M is not reflected in BAs books, and it's a project debt, i.e., no recourse to BA. Accordingly, the contribution of AS V to BA is also minimal. Projected CF to BA is also minimal as AS V will only contribute CF to BA after 7 years. Obviously, it's good to have a successful project but this is not Karken where the impact is BIG.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-12-04 00:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by armadatuah2017 > 2023-12-04 09:09 | Report Abuse

Short baby. lai lai.... year end... good timing for shorting for some quick bucks

Posted by TimCoke > 2023-12-04 09:54 | Report Abuse

Can celebrate soon

Posted by GoldenShares > 2023-12-04 11:52 | Report Abuse

first oil mari, nak goreng KFC, ha ha

Posted by ageetkumar > 2023-12-04 12:15 | Report Abuse

Does anybody know what % of the DCR is the standby rate for Sterling V. How much does this translate to EPS?

Posted by Justaboylearning > 2023-12-04 13:35 | Report Abuse

Gooood bye , good luck all!

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-12-04 14:06 | Report Abuse

@Agreetkumar I suggest to exclude standby DCR as the issue seems to be with the FPSO, so they won't be getting any standby DCR while the delay persists.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-12-04 15:17 | Report Abuse

@i3lurker there is always a possibility the FPSO will never be functional. I hope Bumi Armada doesn't take part in a project with minority stake in the future. Too much as risk when they need to depend on the expertise of others.

Posted by rohank71 > 2023-12-04 15:23 | Report Abuse

Hi Niki, from what I understand, the USD980M loan was taken by ASV and has no recourse to BA. BAs loss is just the equity of USD30M. They can easily sell the equity to their partner and walk away. Also the contribution to BA from ASV is too small as the DCR less Opex will b used for repaying ASVs 980M loan for the first 7 to 9 years.

Posted by lloydlim > 2023-12-04 20:10 | Report Abuse

Time to accumulate!

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-12-05 09:52 | Report Abuse

@Rohank regardless, the extended delay is a net negative to Bumi Armada. This new project should be contributing around RM120m in net profits per year for the 30% stake, equivalent to 2 sen per share. This was supposed to be a growth catalyst, albeit a small one, to a record-breaking profit year next year.

If the issue with Armada Sterling V is terminal, then yes Bumi Armada's direct losses may be limited to the US$30mil (which itself is some RM140mil, not an altogether small sum), but it will impact the future profits and the company's reputation adversely.

Posted by zonefinder > 2023-12-05 10:13 | Report Abuse

Look at this positively especially for long term investors/sufferers...chance to accumulate more at good price..

Posted by Ninja _07 > 2023-12-05 15:00 | Report Abuse

Rebound

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-12-05 16:02 | Report Abuse

Woah what a shit show. It is highly likely the issue is related to the FPSO to some degree. As they were all ready to receive first oil last month and there was equipment failure on the FPSO.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-12-05 16:04 | Report Abuse

A pump of some sort had failed abroad the FPSO.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-12-05 16:06 | Report Abuse

This means that the FPSO would be idle from Dec 2022 to May 2024. How would this impact the production systems? Would they corrode or degrade after such a lengthy time of not being used?

I say, be prepared to write-off Armada Sterling V FPSO.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-12-05 16:07 | Report Abuse

Such a lengthy delay out of the blue must mean that there are teething or even terminal problems.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-12-05 16:33 | Report Abuse

Yes it won't be scrapped but it might be delayed indefinitely. Just like what's been happening now. Initially due to start Sep 2021 but delayed to May 2022 due to Covid. That is understandable. But then it kept getting pushed back. To Dec 22, then Apr 23, then May 23, then Aug 23, then Oct 23, then Nov 23, then Dec 23 and now May 24.

Posted by ckwee168 > 2023-12-05 16:50 | Report Abuse

i remembered our very own flagship Gemusut Kakap deepwater semi-floating production system also suffered significant delays, cost overruns and arbitrations before reaching its commercial production .. as long as the field is not depleted, i'm still optimistic that production will come thru at some point ..

Posted by vespa > 2023-12-05 17:08 | Report Abuse

plagued with problems

Posted by vespa > 2023-12-05 17:09 | Report Abuse

Armada scrapes the barrel for partners

Posted by vespa > 2023-12-05 17:14 | Report Abuse

Another major off project factor perhaps to prime execution maybe handouts just as in bolehland

Posted by Penarak > 2023-12-05 17:23 | Report Abuse

For the State Oil Company to inform the Indian Parliment that commercial production commences in May 2024, they are confident to produce. Big procedure between First Oil and Commercial Production.So looks ok.And Sharpoorji Pallonji are big boys who should know what they are doing.

Posted by EVEBITDA > 2023-12-05 18:19 | Report Abuse

Actually as what Niki said its a reputation issue to BA and not so much financial even though BAs investment is abt USD30M.

Posted by EVEBITDA > 2023-12-05 18:29 | Report Abuse

#rohank too had a point. This is an associate co, the debt of ASV amounting USD980M is not in the books of BA. Whats not answered, "is BA booking the interest expense of its 30% ASV in its accounts now or is it capitalised". The interest exp can amount to USD70M per annum and BAs portion is USD21M. Chances are its being capitalised at ASV. There is actually no cash flow value to BA as the USD230M/annual charter rate, normally 60% is free cash flow b4 financing or abt 140M. 70M goes towards interest service and 70M goes to reduce loan. So for next 9 years ASV will NOT contribute to BA any cashflow. In PBT terms 30% of PBT of ASV less depreciation, which will be peanuts.

Posted by EVEBITDA > 2023-12-05 18:34 | Report Abuse

I dont know why we harp abt the 30% associate when its not worth much in to BA in financial terms. BA can chose to sell their 30% to their partner and move on too. Its is their partner and ONGCC who should be most worried. Its only a reputation risk to BA. Wouldnt be surprised once ASV starts operation BA may sell their 30% to their partner at cost plus holding cost and walk away. Still a good deal to BA being involved ans succesfully completing the largest fpso in India.

Posted by EVEBITDA > 2023-12-05 18:48 | Report Abuse

BA should concentrate on its 100% owned FPSOs and deliver the numbers and hope for the extension. Once a FPSO goes on the extension the cashflow is free and no more loan repayment for that FPSO. We should cheer when BA gets extensions. BA has enough on its plate and should just concentrate on reducing its debts and securing extension. The Akai development is timed rightly in 2026 coz by then BAs gearing will be low and would have secured some extensions of fpso's to embark on a BIG project. We also do not want an early project which will require a cashcall.

Posted by vespa > 2023-12-05 19:18 | Report Abuse

Above all true but competence comes into question and market aint impressed as it has one of the highest net short selling position

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-12-05 20:29 | Report Abuse

EVEBITDA you are wrong on one count. Not sure where you get the idea that Armada Sterling V will not be contributing any cashflows to Bumi Armada during the initial 9 year firm charter period. The cashflows will come from the dividend or redemption of preference shares (the method used for Armada Sterling 1/2/3).

Posted by EVEBITDA > 2023-12-05 23:19 | Report Abuse

Niki, see Armadas announcement dated 12 Sept 2023. Loan taken by ASV is 948M. Do ur math if free cash flow/ EBITDA is say 140M. How many years to tepay this loan, say at interest rate of 7%. Bankers takes the money first, whats left is for shareholders. Aramada didnt say they subscribed to any pref shares, if they did they would only receive payments after all financial covenants of the lenders are met. There is not much cash left after loan repayment. The firm contract is for 9 years. Bamkers want out before firm contract expires.

Posted by EVEBITDA > 2023-12-05 23:27 | Report Abuse

We have not even gone into DSCR ect. Probably this loan is also guaranteed by ONGCC as offtaker. Whats important is to find out if BA has invested more than equity of USD30M. And if BA is currently servicing the 948M loan. Normally NO for project loan until project kick off. BA announcements also doesnt indicate it has guaranteed this loan. As you correctly said its a reputation issue for BA.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-12-06 09:08 | Report Abuse

Interestingly, according to my sources, the first oil date remains as January 2024. They've identified the issue and are working to resolve it. Let's wait and see.

Posted by rohank71 > 2023-12-06 09:40 | Report Abuse

Tq EVEBITDA for your thoughts. Thanks for sharing. Can I summarise that ASV has minimal impact on BA on financial other than reputation issues?

Posted by RayLee > 2023-12-06 15:21 | Report Abuse

It has maintained a “buy” call on the group with a target price of 71 sen per share from HLIBB

Posted by Justaboylearning > 2023-12-06 16:10 | Report Abuse

Raylee

Armada Sterling V is expected to see first oil next week though the acceptance test certificate is still ongoing with each test requiring 3-4 days.On its financing, the FPSO has successfully achieved financial close and has fully drawn down USD948m project financing facility to repay its USD930m bridging loan facility.


Means sell since no oil to be seen

Posted by rohank71 > 2023-12-06 17:57 | Report Abuse

Technically, BA looks really bad as it hit 50 sen today. Anyone can advise where the next technical support is.. or still maintain 50.5 sen as a good support base. Some tell me support 48 sen and resistance at 54 sen. 50.5 sen is the base now.

Posted by EVEBITDA > 2023-12-07 03:21 | Report Abuse

Looking at BAs interest cost in Q3 2023 of RM107M on debts of 4.5B, looks like BAs average cost of debt is abt 10% pa. This is based on companys analyst brief deck on their website. With Brent droping lower it adds to the problem. CGS has put a fair value of 40 sen if there is no extension of firm contract and 84 sen if 100% of extension is achieved with a discount rate/ factor of 13%. With borrowing cost at 10% a fair Discount factor should be 15 to 18%. Basically would u want to lend BA @ 10% or be a shareholder at 13%. I dont mind being a shareholder at 15 to 18% returns. We may see a correction but I am fairly bullish for it to hit 70 sen in 24 months provided karken, ASV1, ASV2, and Olombendo performs (these are the main drivers, rest is not important). TGT1, extension willmadd to the valuation. Enjoy the journey with BA and to share I will buy more if BA drops. I love free cash flows and not profits but mgmt MUST deliver.

In 24 mths if BA can deliver and with Akai comming on stream, we may see 1.00, provided Brent stays at 80 but if BA fails, its UGLY. Again, lets "enjoy" the ride and journey with BA. High risk, high rewards. Buy within ur means or sell if you are over exposed.

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-12-07 09:10 | Report Abuse

wow, profitable QR but price fall like no support at all??? what is going on??? kraken failure 2.0???