Global oil demand to rise by 2 million bpd in 2024. Good news for oil market and I think the demand will further boost with the recovery of China's economy.
Global oil demand set to hit record, oil and gas stocks expected to gain momentum Sinchew Fri, Jan 12, 2024 06:33pm - 1 day
(Photo: AFP) (Kuala Lumpur, 12th) With the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasting that oil demand will hit a record high in 2024-2025, analysts believe that crude oil prices will continue to rise in the medium term and therefore maintain a "positive" rating on the industry .
According to a report from Maybank Research, the bank expects Brent oil prices to remain high in 2024, but will fluctuate significantly.
Analysts said that according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's December 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook report, crude oil is expected to experience a supply and demand gap in the first quarter of 2024, with global consumption slightly exceeding production by 0.80 million barrels per day (mbpd). Crude oil consumption will reach 102.34 million barrels/day in 2024, a record high, and the gap between supply and demand will narrow, with an annual average of 0.15 million barrels/day.
The report shows that the oil market will continue to face three energy dilemmas in 2024, namely 1) demand reaches a record high, reaching 102.34 million barrels per day, 2) insufficient investment leads to tight supply, 3) potential geopolitical risks, trade wars, and embargoes , these factors will continue to cause volatility in the oil market.
OPEC+ cuts production until end of 2024 Analysts said that according to the latest meeting between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC+) on November 30, 2023, the organization and its allies, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to voluntarily reduce production by 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of 2024. , stabilize and balance the oil market.
Looking ahead, the bank expects OPEC+, which accounts for more than 30% of global oil production, to further cut production if oil prices cannot remain above $75.
As the group continues production cuts into 2024, oil supplies will remain tight for the foreseeable future.
Petronas’ capital expenditure will be large this year According to the report, Petronas has hinted at considerable capital expenditures in 2024.
According to the bank’s observation, national oil companies must decide how to strike a balance between the following three major decisions: 1) capital expenditure, 2) dividend commitment, and 3) maintaining balance sheet.
“Petronas held net cash of RM96.7 billion as of end-September 2023.”
With the average expected price of Brent crude oil at US$85, Petronas’ dividend commitments are RM32 billion in 2024 and RM40 billion in 2023, but the bank believes that Petronas’ capital expenditures may be considerable, Yinson Holdings said. , 7293, main board energy group), International Shipping (MISC, 3816, main board transportation and logistics group), ARMADA (5210, main board energy group), ICON, 5255, main board energy group and Daile The Group (DIALOG, 7277, Main Board Energy Group) is the main potential beneficiary.
The report also shows that due to the substantial growth in maintenance, construction and modification contracts (MCM) and hookup and commissioning (HUC) projects, coupled with the increased demand for offshore support vessels (OSV), Dayang Enterprises (DAYANG, 5141, Mainboard Energy Group) ), Bida Energy (PENERGY, 5133, Main Board Energy Group), and CARIMIN Petroleum (CARIMIN, 5257, Main Board Energy Group) have good prospects in 2024.
In addition, assuming that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2024 is US$80, the bank's top picks are Yinson Holdings, Mark Offshore, VELESTO Energy (VELESTO, 5243, Main Board Energy Group) and Huashang Institution (WASCO, 5142, Main Board energy group).
China fourth-quarter GDP grows 5.2% versus 5.3% estimate; Jobless rate rises to 5.1% and home prices fall; Chinese stocks drop as overseas investors sell; Analysts say authorities need to act to revive growth; China’s recovery momentum to continue, government says!
I guess Greedy Gary is busy thinking of the free shares for himself this AGM and his mind is not focused on company business. I wonder how many millions will he award himself this time. My guess is about 8 mln shares.
Greedy G is lucky one, he came in when the shit already almost cleared. He gain all the company recovery benefits (which any assshole put at that position also could deliver the same) he didn't secure any new project!
I bought Armada in 2019. Shortly after Greedy Gary became the president of BA. He visited Kraken and claimed credit for the end to the debacle. Then many here were so happy that he solved the problem. Turns out it might have been worked out by the predecessor.
Greedy Gary was universally admired and a lot of hope appeared on this forum. He was to deliver new projects. Had ideas. And he signed a few memoranda, but delivered NOTHING. That is his performance.
Only achievement of his is the size of his BA holdings. He got more shares that anyone (I consider that Ananda K is an enterprise person making money from investment, not a private working individual). Greedy Gary is now the biggest private shareholder (person who works for a salary). This guy cannot restrain himself from raking in anything in sight. Maybe he comes from a poor family and just cannot get enough. Not saying it to attack. Just trying to find the reason.
On TGT, Revised Field Development Plan (“RFDP”) approved by MOIT on 9 January 2024.
Planning underway for a two-well TGT drilling programme, expected to commence 2H 2024.
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Thank you for your email. As you may be aware, Vietnam recently enacted a new Petroleum Law on 1 July 2023 which aimed to enhance the approval procedures for implementation of petroleum activities. Under this Amended Law, Field Development Plans no longer need to be submitted to the Prime Minister for consideration, and final approvals can be obtained from MOIT.
While the new Petroleum Law was coming into effect, Pharos’ TGT RFDP was being put in front of MOIT for consideration, and was then submitted to the Deputy Prime Minister for approval, as reported in our Preliminary Results statement on 13 September 2023. In 4Q 2023, the Deputy Prime Minister had decided to delegate this responsibility back to MOIT. This approval was then granted by MOIT on 9 January 2024, as stated in our Trading & Operations Update earlier this week.
The recent approval from MOIT is the final stage of the process. The drilling of two TGT wells, as agreed in the TGT RFDP, is expected to commence in 2H 2024.
After the slight blip last week due to margin calls, BA has resumed its uptrend. A break out above 54 will take it to new post of April 2023 high again. Crude is doing well, too, and is poised to break 80 convincingly this or next week.
Southeast Asia’s #FPSO market remains buoyant with several tenders for FPSO vessels under way or expected to hit the streets this year to exploit both gas & oil assets.
But floater projects in the region could find themselves in competition with field developments elsewhere that also require FPSOs.
The Southeast Asian FPSO opportunities are expected to appeal to the likes of the Malaysian contractors #BumiArmada, #MISC, #Yinson and MTC, as well as India’s Shapoorji Pallonji Energy, Oslo-listed #BWOffshore and Netherlands-headquartered Bluewater Energy Services.
Malaysia itself likely will have at least two FPSO opportunities, with potential for a third;
- #ConocoPhillips is advancing its plans for an FPSO to exploit its Salam and Patawali oil discoveries on Block WL4-00 offshore Sarawak, East Malaysia. ConocoPhillips has been in talks with floater contractors including Bumi Armada, MISC, Yinson, Bluewater and BW Offshore. Technical studies, followed by #FEED, are envisaged for this FPSO contract, with the operator said to be eyeing first oil as early as 2026 if it can secure a redeployment (a timeline that could prove ambitious if ConocoPhillips opts for a novel floater based on a tanker conversion.)
- #PTTEP is looking for an FPSO to replace the ageing unit on its Kikeh oilfield offshore Sabah. The current charter of which expires in January 2028.
- the 3rd, IF #PetronasCarigali were to revive its stalled deep-water Limbayong-Bestari project offshore Sabah as a floater-based development.
Elsewhere in South East Asia region,
- FPSO for ultra-deepwater Kelidang field offshore Brunei Darussalam. Late last year ITB documents has been issued to several FPSO contractors for a leased floater with gas handling capacity of up to 450 million cubic feet per day and the ability to handle small quantities of condensate. Submission due in May 2024 and the contract award is expected later this year.
- #Inpex requires a very large FPSO for its Abadi natural gas project in the remote east of the Indonesian archipelago. This will be a newbuild vessel, which is likely to be owned and operated by Inpex and its partners. Inpex is understood to have held a pre-Q meeting late last year with prospective bidders for the Abadi FPSO.
- Also offshore Indonesia, #HarbourEnergy wants an FPSO to exploit its Tuna oil and gas discovery, located near the maritime border with Vietnam. Front-end engineering and design work for Tuna could commence this year but the exact timing of this floater tender remains unclear, as Harbour moves to bring onboard a new partner or partners to replace the departing Zarubezhneft of Russia.
- Another FPSO could also be on the cards for Thailand if US supermajor #Chevron finally gets its on-off Ubon gas condensate project off the drawing board.
- Indonesia, Akia PSC in Tarakan Basin, Bumi Armada and Pexco have formed a 50:50 JV. Its informed that Bumi will provide FPSO and FLNG units.
Nothing that we don't already know about. Salam-Patawali (Malaysia), Tuna (Indonesia) and Kelidang (Brunei) are all bid prospects for Bumi Armada but nothing definitive.
Meanwhile, the purported FPSO + FLNG for the Akia field are still years away. I've spoken with people within the industry, even if Bumi Armada and Pexco initiate exploration campaigns later this year, FID will only be achieved in 2 years time. Most likely, if ever Akia field materialises, the first oil at the earliest will be at or around the year 2030. Still a long time to go.
yeah cant wait to travel in AirAsia EV Airlines. oil isn't just used for cars miss cindywang. oil price increased by almost 10% since the start of the year
FPSO clients are increasingly favouring asset ownership over leasing due to limited contractor availability and financing challenges. Hence, the barrier of entry to the FPSO market has also risen for potential new entrants. The tight FPSO market remains favorable for existing players. We maintain our forecasts, TP of RM3.39 and OUTPERFORM call.
We came away from meeting with Energy Maritime Associates (EMA) organised by YINSON feeling more reassured about the FPSO market outlook. The key takeaways are as follows:
1. A trend is emerging where clients (end-users of FPSO assets) opt to own the FPSOs, securing contractors' services solely for the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) phase of the project. In both 2022 and 2023, a total of 11 contracts followed this structure, with clients taking ownership of the assets. This shift may be attributed to a shortage of capacity among FPSO contractors and increased challenges in obtaining debt financing from banks, likely influenced by Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations.
2. Traditional banks are increasingly reluctant to provide debt financing to FPSO contractors due to growing (ESG) concerns. This reluctance raises entry barriers for new players aiming to enter the FPSO market, given the substantial capex required for such projects. Established FPSO players with proven track records are exploring alternative financing avenues, such as project bond instruments, private equity funding, and prepayments by clients on their leases and this has led to limited FPSO players bidding for new FPSO jobs unless the IRR is attractive enough.
3. The FPSO market is anticipated to remain tight in 2024, as indicated by EMA's survey, revealing record-high industry confidence. About 93% of clients express confidence in their companies' outlook, a notable increase in 2024 from 77% in 2023. Easing concerns of inflation in 2024 suggest that the prices of spare parts and labour will not experience the same rapid increase seen in 2023. Consequently, FPSO contract awards may also see a YoY increase in 2024, surpassing the six awards recorded in 2023.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Felix888999
1,642 posts
Posted by Felix888999 > 2024-01-11 18:40 | Report Abuse
AK no angpow, get angpow from the market.
Ada Ong mari ma. Already 0.54 loh!