"Were disruption to Russian volumes to last throughout the year, Brent oil price could exit the year at $185/bbl." - JPM ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JPMorgan then repeats what Goldman said over the weekend, arguing that given the supply shock and barring a breakthrough in peace negotiations, an immediate demand destruction is the only way to rebalance the market in the short term.
In practical terms, this translates into two cases for the future of oil prices: an ugly, painful case which however does not crash the global economy, and a potentially devastating, global recession (if not depression) inducing one. This is how JPM lays them out:
In the first scenario, JPM admits that so large is the immediate supply shock the bank believes prices need to increase to $120/bbl and stay there for months to incentivize demand destruction, assuming no immediate Iranian volumes. This could result in a 1.2 mbd hit to this year’s demand, bringing 2022 oil consumption 550 kbd below 2019 levels.
The far scarier scenario is one where disruption to Russian volumes lasts throughout the year. In that case, Brent oil price could exit the year at $185/bbl, likely leading to a massive 3 mbd drop in the global oil demand.
Oil Supply From Libya's Largest Oilfield Suspended
The news of further oil production disruptions in Libya comes at a particularly worrisome time for the oil markets, which are already grappling with scant inventories, booming demand, and an invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Oil prices have responded to those events by climbing to levels not seen in years, with WTI breaching $111 per barrel earlier on Thursday.
BP n She'll cease operation and left Russia to show their solidarity on the war. I wonder who is next to join them. Can Iran oil replace those loss barrel? Again, I don't nd oil at 100. Around $85 till yr end is damm good already. I just hope rise of oil does not equate the slaughtering of the golden goose in Hibiscus. Better be slow and steady.
Reuters and Bloomberg blasted headlines suggesting that the IAEA remains unhappy with Iran, which continues to grow its stock of enriched uranium, and remains in breach of many key limits set by the 2015 nuclear deal.
Just care la, seem it at distribution stage, keep refill by seller. which is not good sign, perhaps i'm wrong, just pandai pandai take some profit if got. as you can see. Oil up move a bit, Oil drop , price drop sharply.
If stocks fall solely due to threat of Nuclear war, buy the dip 1)If Nuclear war doesn't happen then you make some handsome profits 2)If Nuclear war happens then you won't need any money 04/03/2022 2:23 PM
Seeking intervention from UN Nuclear Control Counsel la.........set fire to Training areas and blame Russia..........Nuclear plant is safe and sound......no leakage, no contamination.......seeking sympathy and HELP!!!
Price to consolidate at 1.22 to 1.27...good for strong foundation....as mentioned last week, we didn't take profits even at 1.29-1.30 or yesterday 1.30
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ks5S
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Posted by ks5S > 2022-03-04 07:28 | Report Abuse
hibby open gap up today