haha i guess US are trying to find some excuses to invade middle east again for these precious oil. Before that is terrorist and nuclear weapon, let see what excuses are they going to give on their next invasion
Very strange, US ban oil import and market become green across the board..how come. I suspect only temporary. later will see hibby climbing againts the rest..hopefully i am not daydreaming..
Dead cat bounce only. Later will start to selloff again. Nothing positive for the broader market. Inflation rising like hell, next week FED will raise interest rate and issue warnings. Expect more market downturn. Take cover in Black and Yellow Gold.
Black Gold and Yellow Gold the best for 2022. More upside to come. I believe Gold can go to $3000/OZ and Crude between $130 - $180. This is not a recommendation to buy. Decide for yourselves.
Thanks for the links........these are counter measures after Biden's announcement on Oil ban...............However, where did you see "ALL RAW MATERIALS"?????????..........
Putting words in other's constitute a libel and slander!!!
Welcome, Mr MYong........we want the true colors of Hibby to be exhibited and the Value shinning through..........Not by fake news and hoax which would hurt investors eventually.
Hibby is on course and building great foundation,....... not looking back after this.
Russia will take next action stop gas supply to EU and further increase oil price to hit EU and US economy so that world will pressure US and EU to stop doing what they are doing now because everybody suffer due to high oil price.
LOL...rr88 ....how is your shorting of oil business. I saw you shorting when it was 95+ and the more you short, the more it goes up until it is 130 now. Must be a good business for you......LOL
Sharkie, calm down.....no sharks around........and buyers are not afraid of some fluctuations of 2-3 sens........In fact, if drop back, quite sure some may even top-up more.
The playing fields at Bursa is not the same as last year with many 2nd liners and penny stocks flying LU after LU. Even with 2 LUs in 3 days! And should you even believe FDI is back, you've already had your candy taken away from you.
Hibby is a fundamental stock and with the complete acquisition of Repsol has been transformed.
There is nothing much to worry about whether the war over and oil price start to plunge below $100 .. HIBISCS itself from Q2 with production capacity of 9,000 bbls per day but utilisation rate at 90% (8100+ bbls per day) is selling at average price of $75.. Simple math to fact check Q22022 (8150 bbls x 91 days x $75 x USDMYR 4.125) = RM225+mil revenue per quarter
After the complete acquisition of Respol and production will simply jump to 18,500 bbls per day.. due to constraint global supplies.. I believe HIBISCS will max out its utilisation rate.. but lets be conservative at 90% of 18500 will translate approx 16-17k bbls per day .. (17000 bbls x $75 x 4.125 x 91 days ) = RM480mil+ expected revenue per quarter.. this is simply just factoring $75 selling price per barrel.. now oil is trading above that.. just believe in fundamental of the company with strong cash flow and good gearing ratio. With that .. HIBISCS might hit RM1.9-2bil revenue per year with net profit close to 280-350mil..
for those IB and big player who holding 100 of millions or billions, THEY DON'T KNOW how to calculate? nor u think their information was less than u know?
WannaBeTA, think your computation is very conservative or the BPD is not this figure but higher. Also, don't understand why you're still using Oil price at $75?
Forget that nutcase coiff. IBs can be trusted, elephants can climb trees......not just any tree.....tall coconut trees!
@BennyWhittman im just plucking their the BPD from their proposal report from the acquisition for respol and im trying to be conservative and not too over optimistic about it .. im using oil price at $75 (their Q22022 pricing) to show that if the oil will plunge back below $100 .. we are still good.. any premium pricing for oil is advantage as for now.
The reality is.. IB keep revising their TP after price moved and only will write good stuff when has good PR relationship.. otherwise? you know lah
Anasuria Cluster - production was 2,785 boe/day and North Sabah production was 6,384 boe/day for 2Q2022 (Oct-Dec 2021).
Revenue per quarter = 9,169 boe/day x 92 days x USD73/bbl x 4.125 = RM254m vs actual of RM284.4m. The difference being revenue from gas production.
The cost of production for Anasuria cluster was USD24.31/boe and for North Sabah USD13.06/boe. The weighted average cost of production = (24.31 x 2,785 + 13.06 x 6,384) / (2,785 + 6,384) = USD16.50/boe
Hence, gross profit per quarter = 9,169 boe/day x 91 days x USD(75.00-16.50)/bbl x 4.125 = RM201m
minus expenses and finance costs of about RM100m per quarter, the profit before tax = RM101m per quarter for average oil selling price of USD75/bbl
For oil at USD90/bbl, the PBT = RM(253m - 100m) = RM153m For oil at USD100/bbl, the PBT = RM(287m - 100m) = RM187m For oil at USD120/bbl, the PBT = RM(356m - 100m) = RM256m per quarter
If we factor in the additional 9,000 boe/day of production from the recently acquired Rapsol assets, and assuming expenses to increase by 50% to RM150m per quarter, then we shall see : PBT = (253m x 2 - 150m) = RM356m for oil at USD90/bbl PBT = (287m x 2 - 150m) = RM424m for oil at USD100/bbl PBT = (356m x 2 - 150m) = RM562m for oil at USD120/bbl
So if oil prices stay at current level to year end, Hibiscus would make PBT of over RM2.2 billion or RM1.10 per share resulting in a PER of just 1.5x
Of course we need to factor in a higher tax rate of 33% this year, then net profit would be about RM1.57 billion or EPS of 79 sen resulting in a PER of 1.7x.
The non-exec director is too rushed in selling its 2% stakes now at RM1.20-1.34 while the major shareholders are adding. Foreign funds are rushing to take position in Hibiscus just as Warren Buffet taking huge position in OSY in the US.
Maybank is right in recommending Hibiscus with the highest TP of RM1.90 but I think its projections are still under estimating the potential of Hibiscus. Its projected net profit of RM600m for Hibiscus in 2023 at oil price of USD85m is too low, I would estimate it to be RM860m even factoring in a full 33% prosperity tax rate.
With a nett cash position and free cash flows of over RM1.0 billion a year at oil prices at USD85/bbl, Hibiscus would be able to declare 100% earnings as dividend or over 40 sen a share!!!
If oil prices stay at USD120/bbl for a year, free cash flows would balloon to RM2.0 billion a year and dividends might top RM1.00 per share!!!!!!!!!!
Warren Buffet is smart in snapping up OSY even at USD45 per share as its free cash flows would exceed USD20 billion a year, as he believes firmly that OSY share price will more than double from current levels in few months.
Hibiscus will easily double or triple from current levels once the foreign funds and smart money accumulate enough stakes. More upgrade reports will come out in coming weeks.
Kahhoeng hibiscus only sell 2 cargo oil in latest QR .. Anasuria facilities gt one critical components need replace ... is customize components so effect the output .. Next qr repsol asset come in .. guess at least 4 5 kargo oil sell in high price . Profit double up
Hope these data for Repsol acquisition from circular for shareholders, announced on 13 Dec 2021,page 174, circular part 1 ( the second last page of circular part 1) will help your calculation
Free cash flow to repsol, 2P – consolidated—----- page 174
Estimation of CY 2021 Total net production : 15,198 boe/day Estimated realised oil price : USD 63 bbl/day Estimated realised gas price : USD 3.9 / MMbtu Net revenue : USD 247 millions Net Opex : USD 99 millions Net Capex : USD 20 millions Net Abex : USD 18 millions Net Opex/boe : USD 17.85/boe Net (Opex + Capex + Abex)/boe : USD 24.70/ boe Net project free cash flows : USD 77 millions
Estimation of CY 2022 Total net production : 17,364 boe/day Estimated realised oil price : USD 60 bbl/day Estimated realised gas price : USD 3.7 / MMbtu Net revenue : USD 271 millions Net Opex : USD 113 millions Net Capex : USD 82 millions Net Abex : USD 15 millions Net Opex/boe : USD 17.83/boe Net (Opex + Capex + Abex)/boe : USD 33.13/ boe Net project free cash flows : USD 45 millions
Estimation of CY 2023 Total net production : 16,056 boe/day Estimated realised oil price : USD 58 bbl/day Estimated realised gas price : USD 3.6 / MMbtu Net revenue : USD 246 millions Net Opex : USD 108 millions Net Capex : USD 13 millions Net Abex : USD 11 millions Net Opex/boe : USD 18.43/boe Net (Opex + Capex + Abex)/boe : USD 22.52/ boe Net project free cash flows : USD 81 millions
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia will reopen its borders to international travellers starting April 1, says Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob on Tuesday (March 8). The Prime Minister said visitors, as well as Malaysian returnees, who are fully vaccinated are not required to undergo quarantine upon arrival. They, however, must undergo a RT-PCR test two days before departure and a rapid test (RTK) upon arrival. As for travellers who have not been fully vaccinated, Ismail Sabri said the entry procedures will be explained by Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin on Wednesday (March 9). ?As part of our ?Transitioning to Endemicity? phase, the government has decided to reopen the country?s borders from April 1. ?This move will revive the country?s economy, especially the tourism industry that has been heavily affected by the pandemic. ?The decision is made based on science and current facts related to Covid-19, as well as the reopening of borders in other countries...
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Posted by MakeMoney03 > 2022-03-09 10:56 | Report Abuse
haha i guess US are trying to find some excuses to invade middle east again for these precious oil. Before that is terrorist and nuclear weapon, let see what excuses are they going to give on their next invasion