Posted by ZoeZoe > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

But Crude has been holding above 80usd, in case of ceasefire in GAZA, the price falls to 72-75, Hibiscus may drop to 2.41 level, so hold on to your bullets! I wonder what is everyone's average!

Posted by Six6thsense > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Higher frequency and amplitude stroke now. Bullet accumulated

Posted by Apple4Oranges > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Bought around 95 cents before it did the share consolidation. I guess my average price now is RM2.37 ..

Posted by Apple4Oranges > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Oil prices jump after Ukraine strikes Russian oil refineries

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/13/oil-prices-rise-as-us-inventories-fall-ukraine-strikes-russian-refineries.html

Posted by NinjaInPyjamas > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Ignore price, as no one can control. Focus on production delivery and expansion. Looks like higher interest rate for longer maybe able to trigger a mild recession will be good for less exploration ie supply.

Posted by witan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Oil is near 4 months high and US oil stocks share price is also at 4 months high. Yet Hibiscus didnt move. Really disappointed with this stock

Posted by kahhoeng > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

yeah, real garbage co...

Posted by witan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Closing down at 2.5 when Brent is at $84+. What a joke!!

Posted by Apple4Oranges > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Later the company will do share buyback again 😆😆

Posted by Nepo > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

It is time for this giant to wait up

Posted by witan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

LOL Brent is $86 highest since Nov 2023 and yet Hibiscus is in -ve territory today. Bravo!!

Posted by kahhoeng > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Joker bursa or joker counter???

Posted by pang72 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Oil turns bullish liao

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Ok, buy 2molo

Posted by Apple4Oranges > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Better buy it during its weak moment, not bullish moment. Just my opinion

Posted by Six6thsense > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Peaceful world soon and no need to prepare for the war.

Posted by Apple4Oranges > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Hard to say ... https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/3/21/israels-war-on-gaza-live-more-than-100-palestinians-killed-in-24-hours

Posted by wattsy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Do we think Hibby price will explode? interested to hear thoughts.. they have a lot of cash, share buy back is progressing, good fundamentals, but they don’t seem to be loved.. another year and they’ll almost have more cash in the bank that they’re worth.. so things gotta change, or so I think.. thoughts/insights welcome ??

Posted by twynstar > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Hibiscus last closing price = RM2.59 ( =RM 1.04 before share consolidation).
Market cap = RM 2085m
Conversion of USD to MRY = RM 4.70
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months

1) Net Profit ( TTM) = RM 71m + RM 123m + RM 154m + RM 102m = RM 450m
2) EBITDA (TTM) = RM 292m + RM 326m + RM 393m + RM 325m = RM 1336m
3) restricted cash = RM 235m
4) Unrestricted cash = RM 892m
5) Total cash = RM 235m + RM 892m = RM 1127m
6) Total debt = RM 406m
7) Net Assets per share = RM 3.56
8) Enterprise Value (EV) = Market Cap + Total debt - Unrestricted cash = RM 2085m + RM 406m - RM 892m = RM 1599m
9) Net 2P reserves (2P) = 60.9MMboe
10) Net cash generated from operating activities ( 1H,FY2024) =RM 559m
11) Estimated Net cash generated from operating activities (FY2024) =RM 559m x 2 = RM 1118m
12) Estimated Capital Expenditures ( FY2024) = USD 202m x 4.70 = RM 949.4m
13) Estimated Capital Expenditures ( FY2025) = USD 207m x 4.70 = RM 972.9m


Valuation :
1) PER (TTM) = 2085m/450m = 4.63
2) PBR = RM 2.59 / RM 3.56 = 0.73
3) EV / EBITDA ( TTM) = RM 1599 / RM 1336m = 1.20
4) EV / 2P = 5.88 ( peer median = 6.90) **as of 12 March 2024
5) Market cap / Estimated Net cash generated from operating activities (FY2024) = RM 2085 / RM 1118m = 1.865
6) Growing Dividend : 3.75sen ( FY2021), 5.00sen ( FY2022), 6.25sen ( FY2023), 7.50sen ( FY2024F)
7) Total share buy back = 6385200 ( 0.79% of total issued shares)
8 ) Future growth : Extension of PM3 CAA license (CY2024), Teal West Project(CY2025), Fyne Project ( CY2026), Marigold Project (CY2028) , acquisition another high quality producing asset ( ? CY2026)
9) High quality and reliable management teams
10) Wide economic moat company : Almost impossible to get borrowing from banks or raise funds from the public to set up a pure E&P oil & gas company in Malaysia due to ESG issues.


Conclusion :Hibiscus is an extremely undervalued and high quality company in KLSE. Very difficult to find a growing company with low PER, low PBR, extremely low EV/EBITDA and strong cash flow. But share price might not explode due to high CAPEX in FY2024 and FY2025.


I started INVEST hibiscus since 2020

In May 2020, first bought at range of RM 0.500-0.615, but sold all shares in 23/11/2020 with RM 0.550. ( VERY REGRET NOW)

In July and August 2021, accumulated at range of RM 0.605-0.665, no chances to buy at this price already.

In August and October 2022, accumulated at range of RM 0.815-0.825, no chances to buy at this price already.

In June 2023, accumulated at range of RM 0.895-0.905, no chances to buy at this price already. ( HOPEFULLY STILL GOT CHANCE TO BUY AT THIS RANGE)

As a long term investor, I am very happy to growth my wealth with hibiscus. I just target compound growth of 10-12% per year (included dividend). This is my strategy:

Step 1: Save money every month

Step 2: buy low and dont chase high. Hibiscus is cyclical stock. Mr Market sure will give us one or two chances every year to accumulate hibiscus.

Step 3 : Be discipline and repeat Step 1 and Step 2

Posted by kahhoeng > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

hibiscus drops on a rising Brent?

Posted by wattsy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Thanks Twynstar, nicely put. What’s also clear is that the ongoing capex is being easily covered each quarter still with great PAT and we should start to see increasing output/ increased revenues as they are realised. They’re aiming to get to 35-50k barrels a day over the next few years with even better profit margins. Will be an interesting few years ahead. Have been accumulating also but not quite as cheap as you managed (low 90s) and will continue to hold and accumulate more when the opportunity arises. Will be interesting what they do with the shares bought back.. nice to see them distribute back to shareholders rather than remove from circulation…

Posted by wattsy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Noticed a few times of late that after the bell at 4.45pm there’s a diminishing of the stock price with late sales. It’s like most of the buy calls a removed but there’s some dodgy low value trades a few cents lower which seem to manipulate the price for the day.. most of the day it’s 2.59-60 and then a few low value trades at 2.56 after 4.45….???!

Posted by kahhoeng > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Prudential been buying, guess they know how to massage the price so they can buy cheap?

Posted by kl_guy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

someone is holding back the price. keep collecting.

Posted by Sangranghaeyo > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

oil prices continue to rise

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/01/crude-oil-prices-today.html

Posted by kahhoeng > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

brent crossed 88 and Hibiscus still not moving? Prudentail so good at this game or or not buying so no buyer???

Posted by Six6thsense > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Poor people. No more cash

Posted by Six6thsense > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Oil 150 very soon

Posted by NinjaInPyjamas > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

There is no reason or fundamental for oil going to 150. It will basically reduce a lot of demand. USD75-85 for this year is excellent. The best scenorio is we get a mild recession for this cycle to move longer.

Posted by kahhoeng > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

F**ked up company or f**ked up bursa, oil up and hibiscus down???

Posted by Ravetidus > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

@twynstar

Of course you can no longer buy at that price, there was a share consolidation exercise in 2023, stop confusing ppl

Posted by tbala > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

What type of counter is this when the price of oil reaches its peak and prudential investors acquire, company making profits and repurchase shares is going on but the share price is worthless in terms of investing?

Posted by Six6thsense > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

A test. The survival of the fittest.

Posted by paperplane > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

It could be a time to relook into this as IEA also expect some marginal deficit.
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2024

Output policy for the remainder of the OPEC+ bloc will be revisited when ministers meet in Vienna on 1 June to review market conditions. In this Report, we are now holding OPEC+ voluntary cuts in place through 2024 – unwinding them only when such a move is confirmed by the producer alliance (see OPEC+ cuts extended). On that basis, our balance for the year shifts from a surplus to a slight deficit, but oil tanks may get some relief as the massive volumes of oil on water reach their final destination.

Posted by Six6thsense > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Be ambitious. TP 8.80

Posted by Sangranghaeyo > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Then need to wait more than 3 years for it to hit 8.80 😆

Posted by Ravetidus > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

TP : RM3.00 end of this year

Posted by bose00 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

after 2.88, clear blue sky

Posted by soon9913 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

TP : RM3.1 end of this Month - Apr 24

Posted by soon9913 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Sold another piece of land with RM80mil profit

Posted by Phoebe > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Brent at 91+ and It's Fri'yeah..... @^_^@

Posted by witan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Lol this prudential day trader??

2024-04-01

Insider

Notice of new substantial holder - PRUDENTIAL PLC on 27-Mar-2024.

2024-04-05

Insider

Notice of ceasing to be substantial holder - PRUDENTIAL PLC on 03-Apr-2024.

Posted by pang72 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Brent Oil
05/04
|
LCO
90.86
+0.21+0.23

Posted by witan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

WTI n Brent today in deep red. Hopefully Hibiscus dont drop so much

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Wait to buy cheap........................DOn't rush

Posted by soon9913 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

now is cheap to buy lo, buy now before too late

Posted by soon9913 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

how likely you think iran will boom Israel?

Posted by Sangranghaeyo > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Very unlikely, soon9913

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-795866

Posted by twynstar > 4 weeks ago | Report Abuse

The Energy Sector Is A No-Brainer, but There’s More to Come
- Apr 08, 2024,



Morgan Stanley remains pessimistic about the U.S. stock market overall; however, MS has upgraded energy stocks to overweight from neutral, noting that energy companies have lagged the performance of oil, and the sector remains favorably valued. With a PE ratio of 13.4, the U.S. energy sector is the cheapest of the 11 market sectors.



https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Energy-Sector-Is-A-No-Brainer-but-Theres-More-to-Come.html

Posted by Six6thsense > 4 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Ok. Thanks