I am definitely holding because the next crisis will be food scarcity and FGV is one of the major players in this sector with its palm based products and MSM.
*Gutsy FGV shareholders get rewarded as Felda fails in takeover bid*
IN a cynical way, the failure of the Federal Land Development Authority (Felda) to take FGV Holdings Bhd private at RM1.30/share is testament of the triumph of the latter’s minority shareholders who have faith in the management to turnaround the agri-business conglomerate.
Notwithstanding the legacy issues of sorts that is synonymous with FGV, there is a greater allure for the investing fraternity right now – crude palm oil (CPO) price that has surpassed the RM4,000 mark in recent times.
Felda’s failure has been greeted ‘with vengeance’ by investors with FGV’s share price rallying almost 30% to a 52-week high of RM1.67. At 11.27am, FGV was up 33 sen or 25.38% at RM1.63 with 43.88 million shares traded, thus valuing the company at RM5.95 bil.
Felda which was required to obtain 90% of the shares it did not own from the acceptance of its takeover offer of FGV has only managed to obtain 81% of the total issued shares (excluding treasury shares) based on FGV’s Bursa Malaysia filing dated March 15 (yesterday).
To re-cap, the group has extended the closing date for the acceptance of the takeover offer to March 15. The original deadline was on Feb 2 which was then postponed to Feb 16 and subsequently to March 2.
Through Maybank Investment Bhd, Felda has made an unconditional mandatory takeover offer to acquire all remaining shares in FGV at RM1.30/share.
MIDF Research attributed Felda’s failure to wrest control of FGV to the former’s unattractive offer price of RM1.30.
“With the current CPO price having breached RM4,000 a tonne which is also at an all-time high, minority shareholders might have been seeking for a higher valuation,” commented the research house.
Nevertheless, MIDF Research maintained both its “neutral” rating and FGV’s target price of RM1.31 despite anticipation of the group’s earnings remaining sanguine boosted by a favourable CPO price with a modest fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production.
“Despite the US banning imports of palm oil from FGV over allegations of forced labour, we believe that the group’s outlook will remain resilient given it will revisit the appointment of an independent audit firm for an audit of operations within a reasonable period of time and will continue to engage with the CBP (the US Customs and Border Protection) accordingly once an independent auditor has been appointed,” added the research house. – March 16, 2021
production rate will increase or decrease due to weather, soil conditions and company management. so jz try to find out the production rate of FGV for the past few years as simple indicator of company performance.
CIMB and RHB IB back in Jan stated 1.30 offer was not fair and below fair value of its sum of parts. Perspective Lane wanted to inject profitable assets in exchange for shares at higher prices but proposal was shot down. If FELDA want to privatize so badly, they should make a decent offer and not use loopholes to bully minority shareholders into giving up their shares.
If CPO price up YOY>50% even production down 10% is there net gain?
jennynpk88 Hi im new plantation stock. Can sifu share some information about FGV historical production rate vs CPO price? Many thanks in advance. 19/03/2021 12:11 PM
Investors dumping stocks on Fed policy are making a mistake, Jim Cramer says
PUBLISHED THU, MAR 18 20216:21 PM EDT
CNBC’s Jim Cramer defended the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, saying it’s a mistake to dump growth stocks out of fear of rising inflation.“Higher rates are bad for the economy. Powell doesn’t want us to take that hit if we don’t have to,” the “Mad Money” host said.“I think Jay Powell’s right to focus more on full employment than low inflation ... I bet he’ll be right about the transient nature of the commodity price increases,” he said.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Thursday that it’s a mistake to dump stocks in reaction to the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave the interest rate unchanged.
He defended Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who the day prior maintained the central bank’s goal to keep short-term borrowing rates low to support the U.S. economic recovery, even if inflation picks up in the near term.
“Higher rates are bad for the economy. Powell doesn’t want us to take that hit if we don’t have to,” the “Mad Money” host said. “He doesn’t want his legacy to be botching the recovery … [not after he] acted so aggressively last year to keep the economy from crashing.”
The Fed slashed rates last year in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Now many market watchers are trying to anticipate the Fed’s next move as the economy gains traction.
Mandates put in place to slow the spread of Covid-19 upended the economy and threw the country’s unemployment rate into double-digit range. The jobless rate has since fallen to 6.2% as of February, and Powell said the Fed would prioritize giving the labor market room to recover.
“I think Jay Powell’s right to focus more on full employment than low inflation ... I bet he’ll be right about the transient nature of the commodity price increases,” Cramer said.
“Wall Street freaked out last year when Powell cut rates aggressively, and they’re freaking out again now that he’s decided to keep rates” low, he added.
While a low-interest rate environment is good for stocks, not all stocks are created equal, Cramer said.
Industrial businesses are winners when rates are low, while growth names — particularly those in tech that trade on future earnings expectations — are getting hit because those later profits are not as attractive if inflation eats into their value, he said.
The Fed now projects gross domestic product to improve by 6.5% this year, up from a 4.2% projection it made in December. As the U.S. economy reopens and more consumers venture outside of the home more, cyclical companies, such as travel, will stand to benefit greatly, Cramer said.
“The Fed’s basically saying, ‘Party on, industrials,’ which causes the hedge funds to buy them hand over fist,” the host said.
“Problem is, if they want to buy the banks or the smokestack stocks … they need to sell something else,” he said, such as “the high-growth tech stocks that they always dump, and that’s called the hedge fund playbook.”
Ignore some sour grapes comment. Worth to invest at current level . Felt sorry to those who threw at 1.35 , literally so less downside . Never follow herd immunity
Last time more than 10 years ago Dr. Neon Soon Kean of Dynaquest recommended Harrison plantation in his monthly digest at around Rm1.30 to Rm1.40
So we bought and even paid as high as Rm1.40
Then the Indonesia Boss of Harrison decided to take it private with the price of Rm1.30 (same as Fgv at Rm1.30)
One investor called Peter from USA already holding more than 5% of Harrison got so anxious that he bought and bought Harrison until he has more than 10% of Harrison shares to our relief.
Thus the 90% needed for Mandatory General Offer (Mgo) was averted and Harrison continue to be listed till today
Harrison did so well that in later years it kept increasing it's dividends and share price reached Rm4.00 or up more than 200% in 10 years. plus dividend reinvested the yield is over 25% per year not bad at all
So hopefully Fgv will follow Harrison footsteps and go above Rm2.00 first
When the fruits of all planted assets turn into future dividend payouts then we might see Rm4.00 to Rm5.00 or possibly higher
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
strattegist
23,459 posts
Posted by strattegist > 2021-03-18 12:57 |
Post removed.Why?